Prospects for Peace in Algeria:

...The problem of the Sahara is more complex, but not insoluble...

...The U.S...

...intention to do everything it can to see that the negotiations succeed...

...De Gaulle is under considerable pressure to obtain firm guarantees of protection for the large French minority, as the FLN leaders are well aware...

...But the Russians are anxious not to estrange themselves completely from de Gaulle and want to get the Algerian stumbling block out of the way—especially since recent French actions, particularly in the UN and at the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) Conference, have vividly demonstrated de Gaulle's growing independence in the conduct of foreign policy...

...was forced to antagonize almost every Afro-Asian nation by refusing to speak out in favor of independence...

...If peace comes to Algeria soon, North Africa can become a major pro-Western stronghold in Africa while Tunisia, the U.S.'s staunch ally, will be strengthened...

...They are aware that the non-Communist FLN leadership is far too sophisticated to fall into the trap of acting as inadvertent Soviet stooges...

...All these moves on the diplomatic scene naturally contribute to the consensus here that at the next session of the General Assembly there will be no further necessity for debate on Algeria...

...Within the Algerian ranks there is no important dissenting group which might try to sabotage the talks...

...The Russians sent Bourguiba a message of support during his mediating efforts and later expressed satisfaction at the decision to hold negotiations...

...But if there is some division amongst African states, the U.S...

...But no one expects the Algerians to give up the Sahara, which can fill the treasury of the poverty-stricken country...

...However, the answer finally must rest with the French and the Algerians...

...Even Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba, generally credited as the prime mover behind the agreement to begin the talks, did not make his visit to de Gaulle until he was sure it would prove effective...

...The hard core of French politicians, Army officers and colons in Algeria, who are against the idea of Algerian independence in any form, will not give up without a fight...

...With anti-European violence in the Congo and elsewhere in Africa, the Algerian French are more uneasy than ever about their future in a Moslem-run Algeria...

...and the Soviet Union are in rare accord on Algeria, although naturally for completely different reasons...

...The key problems remaining are the future of the French settlers and the oil-rich Sahara...

...the only question remaining is how soon France will give the Algerians their freedom...

...In the past, Algerian independence and recognition of the FLN have always been major stumbling blocks towards any move for negotiations...

...The UAR is not the only African country dismayed by the prospect of an independent Algeria...

...Once de Gaulle personally reversed this position—which most UN delegates had considered absolutely unrealistic—it became possible for both sides really to get down to hard negotiations...

...Publicly, the UAR has endorsed Bourguiba's initiative and the FrancoAlgerian meetings...

...But most observers agree that the Algerian problem has been resolved and that neither France nor the Algerians will again be able to persuade their people to engage in endless fighting...

...But if the negotiations don't succeed, the Algerians will turn to the Communists for full-scale support while Bourguiba will be forced into taking a violently anti-American policy...

...They are willing to grant special guarantees provided such concessions do not entail a continuation of the colons' political and economic domination of the country...

...Both Tunisia and Morocco are exerting pressure on the FLN to work out some kind of joint North AfricanFrench arrangement for the area...

...Last year, by contrast, following the January insurrection of the Europeans in Algeria, there was also much talk of peace...

...Algerian Moslems have great confidence in de Gaulle, and the FLN would run the risk of losing much of their support in Algeria if it were to kill the negotiations by refusing to compromise at all...

...At the same time, the Kennedy Administration is emphasizing to the French that it will be unable to continue even tacit support for them if they kill the present talks...

...But at that time the FLN leadership in Tunis, as well· as the military chiefs in the hills of Algeria, refused to give any indication of optimism...

...UN diplomats believe the Algerian fight for independence is won...

...De Gaulle's attitude convinced Bourguiba to go to Paris, where the French President repeated virtually the same views when they met...

...This optimistic attitude was vividly demonstrated by the general lack of alarm on all sides which greeted the threat of the National Liberation Front (FLN) to boycott negotiations because of France's announced intention also to confer with the minor nationalist group headed by Hadj Messali...

...The general feeling is that they will be long and drawn out, lasting perhaps five months, with a possible break-off at some stage...

...When I was with the FLN last winter, a division commandant squelched all talk of peace by pointing to the French bombers overhead and saying...

...The French had stubbornly insisted that talks could only be held after a cease-fire and that the FLN could not speak for all of the Algerian Moslems...

...It was also the reason the FLN reacted so strongly—and yet with an expression of confidence that all future negotiations were not doomed—to the report of parallel talks with Hadj Messali's Algerian National Movement, which has lost virtually all its political power inside Algeria...

...Neither the French, the FLN nor UN diplomats showed any signs of panic...

...Both Ghana and Guinea would lose the opportunity of acting as champions of Algerian independence and would be faced with the potential rivalry of a new...

...Neither side, in short, can afford to enter into the highly publicized negotiations without a fairly firm prior commitment of success...

...The FLN and French President de Gaulle have raised the hopes of their people that at last an end will come to the seven-year war, which has taken the lives of more than 157,000 Moslems and 14,000 Frenchmen...

...The FLN has continually sought to assure the colons that they would have a place in an independent Algeria...

...Were hopes for peace to be dashed again, the Government would have even more of a problem forcing draftees to fight in Algeria and the French people to continue paying the cost of a war they don't want...

...President Kennedy apparently realizes how important Algerian peace is to the U.S.'s interests...

...It was not until last fall that the Soviets began to give all-out diplomatic support to the Algerians and to provide any important militar) assistance, and this position was more or less forced upon them...

...Algeria has always been a major sore spot for American diplomacy, since in the interests of Western solidarity the U.S...

...Behind the scenes, according to informed diplomats, Nasser's officials have been urging the Algerians to stand firm on all issues and warning them not to trust de Gaulle...

...All sides regarded it as an unfortunate setback which would be overcome fairly soon, rather than a reversion to the grim game of revolt and reprisal which prevailed in Algeria from 1954-60...

...Similarly, most Frenchmen are sick of the "dirty war," as they call it, and by now have accepted the principle of Algerian independence...

...strong state on the African scene...

...By Anita Ehrman Prospects For Peace in Algeria United Nations Algeria, long the key colonial problem in the United Nations, is now considered here as the only bright spot on the troubled African scene...

...Bourguiba has jeopardized his political prestige by taking full responsibility for convincing the FLN to sit down with the French...

...De Gaulle is said to have greeted Masmoudi by saying that there were two things he didn't even want to discuss: the principle of Algerian independence and the question whether the FLN "represented 90 per cent of the Algerian people...

...IT IS ON these two points that the opponents of peace in Algeria will concentrate their trouble-making efforts...

...to outsiders it appears clear that they have made their decision and have no choice now but to implement it...

...The Tunisian weekly, Afrique Action, quoted the President as telling Tunisian ambassador Mongi Slim that he was "more than ever convinced that the independence of Algeria is not only inevitable but also indispensable to world peace and security...

...Nor can France, which has made a billion dollar investment in developing the desert oil, be expected to give it up...

...They argue that the Sahara dispute is minor compared to the larger issue of obtaining independence and that, if necessary, it can even be worked out at a later date...

...Moscow would prefer to concentrate on the black African states, which it feels are more fertile ground...

...Anita Ehrman, veteran United Nations correspondent, last year visited North Africa and reported on the Algerian war from behind rebel lines...

...American diplomats have been ordered to contact FLN representatives and impress upon them the U.S...

...Unlike last summer's abortive negotiations at Melun in France, when both sides were reluctant to attend and were unprepared for any major change, the meetings at Evian-lesBains on the Franco-Swiss border will take place against a background of detailed private talks and public expressions of confidence...

...The FLN leaders know this very well and would not take the chance of holding out the possibility of peace if they were not very sure of the chances for success...

...For their part, the French have been having an increasingly difficult time with young men who are drafted into the army and have no desire to die for the cause of Algérie française...

...Both sides know that if negotiations are to succeed in attaining an equitable Saharan agreement, each will have to compromise...

...I can't see any difference...

...The Tunisian President's optimism was based on the results of a meeting between de Gaulle and Bourguiba's special emissary, Mohamed Masmoudi, several weeks ago...

...They could hardly act as the anti-colonial champion without taking a strongstand on Algeria...

...is also throwing the full power of its diplomatic weight behind Tunisia's peace-making efforts...

...But there are signs that United Arab Republic President Gamal Abdel Nasser, unhappy about the prospect of a unified North Africa and uneasy over the increased prestige which will accrue to Bourguiba with an Algerian peace, has been quietly attempting to disrupt the negotiations...

...He acknowledged these two facts, de Gaulle told Masmoudi, and suggested they get down to discussion of the real problems...

...The Soviets have always been more interested in splitting France from the West than in the Algerian rebellion itself...

...There is some doubt, too, whether the FLN would again be able to sustain a rebel army, should the negotiations fail—even with all-out Communist support, which would certainly follow any complete stalemate...

...No one expects the Franco-Algerian negotiations to be easy, of course...

...They brought de Gaulle to power to settle Algeria and if he fails, after rousing their hopes so high, then he is probably finished as leader of France...