The Iraqi Cockpit

...This image is of course quite correct with regard to Communist parties in Russia and China, in Eastern and Western Europe...

...But there has been nothing to compare with that 12-year period, 1946-58, when the Middle East practically monopolized the international affairs section in press and radio...

...It would be tempting to describe the present political set-up in Iraq as a coalition between an army junta and the Communist party...

...Communist newspapers published "Bolshevik self-criticism" and vowed that such "anarchist" actions would not be repeated...

...But Daud as Sayegh is only one among many...

...What has changed, or is likely to change, as a result of the January 6 reforms...

...It is an open question whether conditions in Iraq are considered favorable for a take-over, but there can be no doubt that the repercussions in the other Arab countries, let alone neutral Asia and Africa, would be highly undesirable from the Communist point of view...

...It is not a very big country—its population barely exceeds six million—and its strategic importance in the atomic age is questionable, to say the least...

...The rights and wrongs of the Shatt al Arab dispute between Iraq and Iran cannot be discussed here in detail...

...With one or two exceptions, they have not succeeded in gaining influence in the many so-called "democratic organizations" that have sprouted like mushrooms during the last years...

...They are represented by several ministers in the Government, but they are not really a mass movement...

...It is a problem of more than purely local significance, for an "Iraqi situation"—namely, a revolutionary situation with a difference—may well develop in the near future in another Asian or African country...

...And Iraq's new ruler, General Abdul Karim Kassem, had announced that on January 6, 1960 the "transitional period" would give way to a new era—a permanent constitution would be adopted, patriotic political parties would be licensed, preparations would be made for the beginning of parliamentary life and the establishment of various other democratic institutions...

...It is certainly not applicable with regard to the Iraqi Communist party...

...On the whole, however, the Communists have emerged as a much stronger political force, and this change of the equilibrium has been reflected in Kassem's own policy...

...Many of the latter insisted for the last 15 years on the establishment of separate parties, rather than the mere existence of a Kurdish section within the Iraqi party...

...Since then the political basis of the regime has palpably changed: The Ba'ath and the Istiqlal no longer exist, their leaders are in prison or in exile...

...a junta is not a political movement with an ideology of its own...

...Party discipline would presumably be restored if the Iraqi Communists could establish a power monopoly such as was achieved in the so-called Popular Democracies three or four years after the end of World War II...

...It is more startling to find similar dissension within the Communist party and its periphery...

...Most other problems, however large they may loom at the moment, are of local importance only...

...Relation between Communists and other political groups is 'probably the most important problem' today The Iraqi Cockpit By Walter Z. Laqueur LONDON FOR ALMOST a year now, the Middle East has all but vanished from the headlines...

...Such differences of opinion among the officer corps are perhaps not very surprising...

...Such a danger does not, however, exist, and, much to Russia's dismay, cannot apparently even be conjured up...

...But it is by no means always accurate with regard to the newly independent Asian and African nations...

...The one exception is the lawyers' association...

...While the central office of this organization is dominated by the Communists, the National Democrats have apparently been able to take a leading part in some of the provincial sections...

...Last July widespread riots occurred in Kirkuk, resulting in a great many casualties and considerable material damage...

...It may be a precursor of a new dilemma for the Communists, far different from the one they faced in the West...

...Several political parties in Baghdad have applied for recognition under this law, and the date for election of a Constituent Assembly will presumably be fixed in the near future...

...More recently however, after his release from the hospital, Kassem announced a completely different version: Not the Communists, but the Ba'ath had been behind the "Kirkuk conspiracy...

...Nobody, to be sure, expected a radical change on January 6. What actually did occur was the publication of a law regulating the status of associations and political parties...

...If a great and acute outside menace presently threatened the Arab world, Cairo and Baghdad in all probability would bury the hatchet, at least for a while...

...The National Democrats are still active and have in effect applied for official recognition as a party...

...Colonel Mahdawi, the head of the military tribunal whose political ties are well known, always appears as a "non-party patriot and democrat," whereas the military commander of Baghdad, who is thought to belong to the opposite camp, has on occasion gone out of his way to display more than fairness to the Communists...

...This issue, the relationship between the Communists and the other remaining political factors, is the most interesting and probably the most important problem in present-day Iraq...

...Some of these local deviations have been, and are, nevertheless of considerable importance: No satisfactory solution has been found to this day for regulating the relationship between Arab and Kurdish Communists in Iraq...

...A certain amount of dislocation has always ac-, companied revolutionary upheavals, but the new regimes sooner or later realize that they have to master the economic situation if they want to stay in power...

...there are many disputants for the party leadership, and even more advisers as far as its political line is concerned...

...Unfortunately, the situation is much more complicated, and in some respects so confused as to defy analysis...

...The struggle between Baghdad and Cairo for mastery over the Arab world belongs to a very different category: It continues unabated and it is not only a contest between Communism and Nasserism...

...It would be very wrong to write off the Iraqi Communist party in view of such widespread internal dissension: Its progress as a movement during the last 18 months has been phenomenal and it continues to be by far the strongest political party in Iraq...

...Relations between Middle Eastern countries have undergone on occasion sudden and radical changes: Alliances have disappeared overnight and former enemies have suddenly emerged as good friends...

...the situation in the peasants' association is somewhat confused...

...Western political observers have been accustomed to a certain stereotype of iron discipline, a relentless purpose and a single program...

...In these circumstances, the Iraqi Communists are prevented from making decisive further progress for the time being and the resulting mood of frustration may well be one of the main causes behind the many "deviations...

...It can be assumed that such a parliament will be very different in composition and political orientation from the one established recently in Egypt, but its political influence is not likely to be appreciably greater...

...When General Kassem came to power he was supported by a loose coalition of four groups: the pan-Arab Ba'ath, the Right-wing Istiqlal, the Left-wing National Democrats and the Communists...

...One illustration should suffice in this context...

...But its very success has created great problems...

...In his "Military Day" speech, Kassem reiterated his belief that Iraq was foremost among the countries working in the interest of the whole Arab nation, whereas the "renegade rulers" of a certain other country were merely claiming Arabism, while being, in fact, very remote from its aims and principles...

...Ittihad al Shaab, the Communist central organ in Baghdad, lists in a recent editorial not less than 12 major "factionalist and deviationist" groups that have been in existence in the recent history of Iraqi Communism, quite apart from purely local separatist groups...

...Cabinet crises in Lebanon, elections in Israel, speeches in Cairo and elsewhere have evoked mild interest...

...It could be argued in retrospect that too much attention has frequently been paid to the Middle East in the past...

...Eighteen very eventful months have passed since that morning in July 1958 which witnessed the overthrow of the Hashemite King Faisal and Premier Nuri as-Said...

...There is, for example, Iraq's economic problem, the fact that production has fallen and remains low...

...The Communists were strongly attacked by Kassem at the time for instigating these disorders...

...One should expect, at least, some clarification of the general political atmosphere and of the relations between the various political groups...

...One of the main rivals of the official Communist leadership is Daud as Sayegh, one of the leading personalities in the party from the early days, who was sentenced to a lengthy prison term back in 1949...

...This reversal, despite the known facts and the Communists' own admission of responsibility, accurately reflects the changed political situation in recent weeks...

...Iraq is the one exception in this general picture...

...the state of tension between the two countries will presumably continue, and may deteriorate into something more dangerous than the current battle of words...

...The ruling officers' group is not a political entity...

...It is a very important oil producer, but there has been an oil surplus on world markets for many months, and the current interest in Iraq cannot be explained in economic terms either...

...Al Mabda, which propagates an independent Communist line...

...Some even argue that it may be positively helpful not to take Middle Eastern crises too seriously for a while...

...In Baghdad, the new government has not yet come to grips with the economic facts of life, and the awakening—or perhaps the reckoning—may not be far off...

...No vital interest seems to be at stake for either country and the whole conflict seems to be somewhat artificial in character...

...among its members are Communists and anti-Communists and both are making great efforts not to be identified with any of the existing groups...

...But it seems to have been decided that this kind of "popular democracy" is not to be established in Iraq in the near future...

...Daud as Sayegh recently founded a new daily newspaper...

...According to the cognoscenti, this newspaper is heavily subsidized by Kassem himself...

...It is the internal political situation in Iraq which is so fascinating, and in many respects unique...

...In these circumstances, a rapproachement between Cairo and Baghdad seems highly unlikely...