Kilowatts and the Cold War
DILLON, JOHN G.
KILOWATTS AND THE COLD WAR By John G. Dillon Is Soviet electrification proceeding faster than America's? THE ECONOMIC WAR with the So-viet Union involves a crucial battle of production...
...In 1926, approximately two-thirds of all energy was produced in small plants serving local areas, with only a third coming from large central power stations...
...One of the most remarkable phenomena of Soviet economic history—and an excellent measure of that country's force—has been the expansion of its generating capacity and energy production since World War II...
...The current Seven Year Plan calls for an average annual rate of over 11 per cent by 1965 while our own optimistic figure is between 5 and 6 per cent for the same period...
...To carry out its new economic offensive, the USSR must increase quantitative production at a rapid rate...
...THE ECONOMIC WAR with the So-viet Union involves a crucial battle of production armies—armies whose success is dependent upon an adequate supply of electric power, the resource which is the very foundation of modern industry...
...America is now involved in a protracted conflict with the Soviet empire—a conflict that includes the declared economic war, an increasing number of undeclared "little wars" and the ever-present threat of all-out nuclear warfare...
...This was the beginning of the vast regional power systems so essential to a rapidly growing industrial economy...
...The foregoing is borne out by applying the percentage rates to the existing generating capacity in order to determine the more meaningful quantitative increase...
...markets...
...The probability that Soviet power production will reach half of ours is high...
...We are suddenly faced with the uncomfortable realization that the Soviets need not "catch up" with us in total energy production: They need attain only one-half that of the U.S...
...In 1956 these rates were approximately 15 per cent for the USSR and 5 per cent for the U.S...
...Our utilization of two-thirds of the national energy production for light industry, commercial and service industries, and domestic purposes assures our high standard of living, but it is of no value in the economic war...
...But by 1935, the central stations were producing two thirds of all kilowatt-hours, and this new emphasis required the building of high-voltage transmission lines...
...By 1937, this lag had increased to 21 years, or the 1916 point of our industry...
...Soviet statistics show two-thirds of Russia's total energy production going into heavy industry...
...Another illustrative means of analyzing the power systems of the two nations is the "lag" comparison...
...Achievement of this goal will enable them to compete on a par with this country in industrial production...
...industry...
...Thus it is not a matter of how many kilowatt-hours are produced, but of how they are employed...
...Since our electric industry is much older and fully three times as large as that of the USSR, we can accept the unfavorable comparison as normal...
...In 1913, the Czarist power industry was roughly equivalent to that of the United States in 1900, a 13-year lag...
...Communist and American planners have not developed equivalent plans for simple comparison, or as an exact basis for forecasting the future...
...lead over the USSR in the production of electric energy has been reported as unassailable...
...In 1958, Russia produced 233 billion kilowatt-hours compared to our production of 719 billion...
...the remainder is fairly well divided between light industry and normal electric system losses, with domestic use receiving a negligible share...
...Here, too, its rate of increase is consistently two to three times that of the United States, while quantitatively we continue to widen the gap...
...This nine-year revolution altered the basic electrical economy as well...
...by 1959, this had increased to one-third...
...Thus, while dramatizing the percentage rate, the Soviets neglect the important quantitative increases in which our country has led consistently...
...tivity of the worker...
...In fact, the favorable margin of our capacity has grown from 93.7 million kilowatts in 1956 to an all-time high of 108 million in 1959...
...It is not surprising that during these years Russia overtook the United Kingdom as the world's second largest producer of electric power...
...and this in turn can be derived only from the application of automation and mechanization through electric power...
...To this end, in the new Seven Year Plan, electric capacity has a planned expansion rate twice that of the steel industry...
...Although an estimated 40 per cent of the country's power capacity had been damaged or destroyed, so energetic was the approach to recovery that, by the end of 1945, the 5-million-kilowatt capacity loss had been repaired, restored or replaced...
...This suggests the optimistic conclusion that, after 47 years, the Communists are back at the starting point...
...It means that the Communists are able to use twice as much of their available power in direct prosecution of the economic war effort as the United States...
...This is three to four times their past sustained maximum quantitative rate and twice that planned for the current Seven Year Plan...
...Of our own electric production, approximately one-third goes into heavy industry, one-third to commercial and light industry consumers and one-third to domestic use...
...Because of the utter dependence of industrial production and expansion upon electricity, the Kremlin is willing to sacrifice, or at least postpone, an improved standard of living for the people in order to ensure a maximum amount of power for industry...
...The Soviets acknowledge the superior individual productivity of the American worker over his Soviet counterpart and correctly ascribe it to the greater use of electric power in U.S...
...By 1955 the trend had reversed, with the lag decreasing to 16 years, and now it approximates 13 years again...
...In 1929, the USSR had less than one-tenth of U.S...
...There is ample evidence of the adequacy of their technology...
...Instead of drawing comfort and complacency from our vast margin of electric production, we must measure that which is used for the economic war effort and plan our strategy accordingly...
...By this monumental effort Russia was able to meet the new and enormous power requirements of the nuclear weapons development programs and at the same time supply the enlarged and power-hungry light metals industry...
...For 1956, with existing capacities of 37.2 and 130.9 million kilowatts for the USSR and the U.S., the 15 per cent and 5 per cent rates yield a 5.6 and 6.6 million kilowatt increase respectively...
...Nonetheless, the improvement in power supply has been sufficient to enable the modernization of old industries and to provide the base for new ones...
...But this is neither planned nor probable on our part...
...The USSR is in the process of carrying out a long-term electric power build-up that is aimed, through their world-wide economic offensive, squarely at the United States...
...The U.S...
...The Soviets have consistently failed to meet fully the quantitative goals of the early and successive Five Year Plans for new power plants...
...The massive industrial growth visualized and planned by the Soviets is directed to four major goals: (1) a capacity for commodity dumping, leading to the undercutting of U.S...
...capacity...
...But here we must reckon with the autocratic nature of the Communist regime...
...4) a higher standard of living to demonstrate the superiority of their system, particularly in view of the American depression they envisage...
...But there are no longer vast labor reserves to be marshalled into industry, so increased production must come from increased producJOHN G. DILLON developed a professional interest in Soviet electric power achievements in his capacity as Commander in the Civil Engineer Corps of the United States Navy...
...Comparisons and analyses similar to the preceding have led many Americans to conclude that we are "safe at home" in the power race— at least until 1975...
...Arithmetically, if we are to prevent further proportional gain, our quantitative expansion rate must be three times that of Russia...
...The Communists know they must expand their power industry to narrow or eliminate this productivity differential...
...for 1956-58 the rates were 12 per cent and 6 per cent...
...The extent of their accomplishments and the vast measure of their effort should awaken this country to the full meaning of the Communist boasts...
...If our statesmen are able to restrict the conflict to the economic sphere, industrial production based on electric output will determine the outcome...
...Superimposed on these demands were those of a rapidly growing heavy industry...
...The ability to direct two-thirds of its total energy into heavy industrial production, as compared to our one-third, is one of the most important single weapons in the Soviet industrial arsenal...
...But if the USSR is "to catch up" in power-plant capacity by 1975, an annual capacity increase of about 16.2 million kilowatts is required of them...
...The significance of this wide difference in growth rates becomes less critical if we apply the axiom that most individual industries expand at a decreasing percentage rate as they become older and larger...
...But does this assure our ultimate success...
...From all information available it appears that by 1965 the Soviets will be generating one-half as many kilowatt-hours as America and they will be capable of directing an amount into heavy industry equal to that of the United States...
...The large-scale application of electric motor drives, plus the growth of electrolytic and electro-thermal processes, was in the nature of an industrial revolution, as evidenced by the eight-fold increase in the use of power in industry in the nine-year period following 1926...
...The consequences of the difference between the two approaches to the control and use of electric energy are strikingly important...
...By 1953, capacity and output had tripled over 1945 and by 1955 it had quadrupled...
...The Communists rationalize that a kilowatt-hour not used in competitive industry is lost to the cold war effort...
...2) greater aid programs to offset the value of our own, or force us into broader programs and a consequently greater imbalance of trade: (3) an expanded military effort by which Soviet military power would grow equally with economic strength...
...Communist propaganda has told the world that the Soviet power industry's growth rate is far greater than that of the United States...
...For every million kilowatts the Communists install, we must install three million...
...But in Russia, power is directed into those channels the State deems most advantageous to the achievement of its goals...
...In our country, electric energy is produced for those customers who have the need and the ability to pay for it...
Vol. 43 • September 1960 • No. 35
