'Fidelism' for Export

...It is difficult to say whether Peronism and Fidelism have formed an alliance...

...the Victor Alba, former staff member of the Mexico City Excelsior, is a specialist in Latin American affairs...

...The governments, which know more about Cuban realities, cannot openly condemn this state of mind since the parties they represent (Democratic Action in Venezuela, Radicals in Argentina, Revolutionary [PRI] in Mexico) find themselves split between their pro-Castro elements and the others who take the Cuban example as a warning...

...Both Fidelists and Peronists are counting on the short memories of the masses, and on the democrats' fears of appearing to be enemies of the Cuban revolution, to gain acceptance of yet another exhibition of concubinage between the Communists and the Latin American dictators...

...The conference of underdeveloped countries which Castro planned to convene this year at Havana has been "postponed" (in fact, it has been abandoned, since no Latin American state accepted the invitation, and the Asian and African nations refused to participate without them...

...The Congress of Youth convened in July has also been abortive: Only the Communist and fellow-traveling groups actually took part in it, and the others (such as the Social Christian COPEI of Venezuela) withdrew because too little freedom was allowed their representatives...

...but an alliance with Castro, for all its risks, is probably the only maneuver possible, for without it, the Peronists' gradual dissolution is inevitable...

...The Communist League of Roberto Puigros worked in close contact with Peron...

...Venezuela—independently of Castro —is nearing completion of a plan for gradual agrarian reform, and Bolivia is still at work upon its own scheme, begun seven years ago...

...are also divided...

...Castro agents made meticulous and very costly arrangements for these mass demonstrations throughout the hemisphere and nothing of importance came of them...

...No government would dare to reduce its army now that almost every Latin American country is in danger of a terrorist "Fidelist" movement, and some of them under threat of a "Fidelist"-abetted invasion...

...Figueres of Costa Rica and Chilean President Jorg...

...Faced with this situation, Castro has chosen to break with inter-American solidarity...

...But despite this wary attitude, most of the Latin American public is pro-Castro, each part of it for different reasons: the middle class, because it does not want to be thought anti-revolutionary or pro-American...

...That is doubtful...

...This probably signifies that the phase of mass popular appeal is at an end and the phase of conspiracies and seizures of power by force and terrorism will doubtless ensue...

...Immediately after his victory in the Cuban Revolution, Fidel Castro hoped that he would become a Latin American force, leading all Latin America along a new path...

...On the negative side, Castro has divided opinion in the democratic parties and thereby strengthened conservative and reactionary parties, which also benefit by the fears he has aroused in all the propertied classes...

...Nevertheless, Castro knows that his future depends on Latin America—that it is only if and when he attains real influence there that Khrushchev's promises will materialize...

...This rising middle class would indeed have liked to give practical proof of its anti-Americanism, but not at the risk of subjection to such measures as Castro had taken: persecution of the opposition, systematic nationalization of industry, agrarian "reforms" which didn't give the land to the peasants, and bureaucratic management of the economy, culture and means of communication...

...Washington has just granted a $50 million credit to Peru for a plan of gradual agrarian development in one of the most backward regions of the country, and this credit will certainly not be the last of its kind...

...The Communist party of Peru, under the leadership of Senator Luna, helped Dictator Manuel A. Odria purge the unions of elements of the democratic People's party, and the Venezuelan Communists, under Dictator Marcos Perez Jimenez, got rid of Democratic Action elements from their unions...

...Alessandri...

...These expeditions came to grief for two reasons—lack of preparation and experience on the part of the exiles themselves, and lack of popular support...

...Another, and important, set-back for Castro has been his inability to create a continent-wide "third force" labor movement...

...This change of opinion is slow and hesitant, and probably its effects will not be apparent until later...

...And the Argentine Communists, the Peronists allies, are steadily stealing their adherents, imposing their own policies upon them and making their own use of the trade unions...

...If this alliance really does bear fruit and proves effectual, Argentina may well be entering a period of virtual civil war, of terrorism far more dangerous than that which already prevails (1,300 criminal assaults were carried out by Peronists in 18 months, at a cost of 30 lives...

...He has compelled both liberal and conservative governments to accept the necessity of agrarian reform—there are now projects and studies for such reforms in Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil and even Nicaragua...

...the peasants, because of the mirage of agrarian reform...

...Latin America has seen plenty of alliances between Communists and dictators...

...The Peronists, for their part, find themselves up against a Government whose defeat they predict day after day, but which is also gaining ground day after day in its fight for stability and against inflation...

...and ORIT (the inter-American section of the International Congress of Free Trade Unions), though its influence is waning, has not begun to disintegrate as the Communists had hoped...

...In the near future Peronism will probably disappear, partly absorbed by the Communists and partly rendered impotent by having disappointed its mass supporters...

...He must, therefore, find some allies—Communist aid is not enough and public opinion in Latin America is not sufficiently active...

...Who might those allies be...

...labor unions, out of sympathy with Castro's social reforms...

...And for these new tactics, alliance with the Peronists is a first and inevitable step, though no one can tell how efficacious such tactics will be...

...The other democratic parties of the continent (Socialists, the People's party of Peru, the Liberals of Honduras, etc...

...Castro has therefore not succeeded in becoming a continental leader, nor in directly influencing Latin American politics, nor in finding effective allies in Latin American countries...

...General Juan Peron has virtually lost the leadership of Peronism, and it has increasingly devolved upon its chiefs of the "left"—in the national, socialist sense of the word...

...To the United States, Castro is a portent that has forced the State Department to revise its conceptions of Latin America, to admit that the "American way of life" cannot be imposed and that progress may have to proceed by means other than those most advantageous to free enterprise...

...There is not a single strong, organized movement in all Latin America that is available, unless it be the Peronists...

...It is certain that among Castro's henchmen there are both advocates and opponents of such cooperation, and no one can tell whether Ernesto "Che" Guevara, one of Castro's closest advisors and a one-time adversary of Peron, is for or against it...

...He dispatched men, money and arms to enable the exiles of Nicaragua, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Paraguay to fight against their dictators...

...A conference which brought together the Cuban unions, those of the Latin American branch of the Communist World Federation of Labor and a few nonaffiliated unions (the most important from Venezuela, where the Communists are contending for leadership against elements of the Democratic Action party) did not lead to the creation of any new central organization...

...The latter is the more important point: The people of the countries in question are not enamored of their dictators, but the behavior of Castro and his movement in Cuba had alarmed the middle class, which is the most active and the most militant part of the Latin American public...

...They no longer have a leader, since Peron, now in Spain, has lost most of his local prestige...

...But by the logic of politics, the Peronists are as badly in need of this alliance as Castro is...

...Such an alliance presents no ideological impossibilities...

...Indirectly, Castro has certainly had some influence in Latin America and even in the United States...

...He has accepted offers of aid from Khrushchev and declared that the OAS represents nothing...

...His isolation within the Organization of American States (OAS) is evident, and the meeting of the foreign ministers of the American states held in San Jos?, Costa Rica, last week showed that although no government wished to oppose Castro openly, none would support his attitude toward the United States...

...The failure of the pro-Castro demonstrations of "solidarity," which were organized during the Congress of Youth at Havana and at the reunion of the OAS at San Jos?, is conspicuous...

...To revitalize Peronism by endowing it with the new mystique of Fidelism might be its best hope...

...At the moment, no doubt, the Peronist leaders are thinking only that this might protect their following from seduction by the Communists...

...Moreover, he has made any Latin American disarmament in the near future a practical impossibility, just when it was beginning to seem a possibility after the initiative taken by former President Jos...