The Population Explosion

...Most students of the problem refuse to see these as mutually exclusive alternatives and advocate a joint program of encouraging both birth control and economic development...

...Several sociological studies indicate it is practiced by a large majority of Americans and that the more effective methods are extensively used by members of all religious groups...

...They fear that without a slowing of population increase these countries may simply end up supporting more people at the same low standard of living, whereas a successful program combining population control with economic development would enable a somewhat smaller total population to achieve what we in the West consider minimum standards for human decency...

...Thus the high rates of population growth in the latter group provide little cause for alarm, while the somewhat lower growth rates of the former group are a major source of anxiety...

...And even though a sardine-can world is a fantasy and a larger population can be supported comfortably, are we utterly indifferent to considerations of space and density...

...But concern over population problems and controversies over public policy toward them are likely to increase in the years ahead as we become more aware of the continuing population explosion, particularly in the underdeveloped countries of Asia and Africa...

...While it is possible for the world to support a population a good deal larger than the present one, our fundamental choice is between achieving population stability by lowering the birth rate as opposed to achieving it by increasing the death rate...

...Even those who do not share a truly religious position can respect the integrity of it...

...The point, however, is not that such a world is a real possibility but rather that it is inconceivable: Long before we would be confined to "standing room only," population growth would fall as a result of a rise in the death rate...

...The West has already rejected the relatively uncontrolled fertility of the past, and its population growth is now firmly under control with birth rates flexibly adjusting themselves to changing economic trends...

...Let us assume that the marvels of science and technology do succeed in creating a world in which productivity rises at unprecented rates...

...For several reasons the answer must be "No...

...Disagreement centers on rival interpretations of the facts, interpretations which clash on the Dennis H. Wrong, associate professor of sociology at Brown University, is the author of Population (1959...

...It is curious that those who oppose birth control should so often think of themselves as upholders of tradition, since the transformation of our way of life required to support a vastly larger population would be far greater than that resulting from world-wide adoption of birth control...

...The population cannot go on increasing indefinitely...

...Do we care nothing if the world resembles Levit-town, New York as long as people get enough to eat...

...The desirability of the underdeveloped countries attaining a standard of living closer to our own by means that avoid war and under non-Communist, preferably democratic, governments is also generally acknowledged...

...Those who do not approve of birth control would do better to base their opposition on religious or absolutist moral grounds alone...

...Those who talk blithely of algae out of the sea and rockets to Mars rarely pause to ask themselves whether we really want to live in a world where population pressure compels us to rely on such expedients...

...It is a mistake to equate what is technically possible with what has a reasonable probability of happening in this world of competing national sovereignties, revolutions and ideological and racial antagonisms...

...But our chances of doing so are far better than our chances of winning a never-ending race between economic growth and population increase...

...Let those who object to birth control declare themselves in favor of higher mortality instead...

...Why make it harder...

...Why not mobilize all our efforts to raise production...

...Even if other planets are habitable, astronomers doubt whether they would be very pleasant places to live...

...But such a position should be stated forthrightly—even when, as in the present case, it can only make the ancient demand, unacceptable to most of us, that justice be done though the world perish...

...These differences are usually rooted in disagreements over the morality of various methods of birth control...

...Can we take for granted the acquiescence of the American electorate...

...Too often the whole subject is discussed as if only two opposite camps existed: those who wish to limit population growth by means of birth control, and those who favor an all-out effort to raise food production...

...If tractors, fertilizers, pesticides and other modern agricultural techniques were universally adopted in the underdeveloped countries, their productivity could then take care of considerable population growth...

...Suppose it should require the United States to devote to foreign economic aid a share of its budget equal to what it now spends on national defense...

...The facts of world population growth and the distribution of world resources are not subject to controversy...

...The false inference is drawn, or at least suggested, that unless the present rate of population growth drops we are likely to end up living in such a sardine-can world...

...Public discussion is unquestionably preferable to indifference, but many current pronouncements on the "population explosion" reveal more about the passions and doctrinal beliefs of the speaker than about the realities of the problem...

...If this is so, why all the talk about birth control...

...The Population Explosion Birth control is necessary if the world is to achieve a higher standard of living By Dennis H. Wrong The world problems created by population growth have suddenly become a matter of public debate in this country...

...In brief, those who favor the spread of birth control believe on good evidence that reduced population growth will make possible more rapid economic progress to eliminate the terrible poverty afflicting the majority of the inhabitants of the underdeveloped countries...

...These are, of course, the real grounds for opposition in most cases, but their upholders invariably seek additional support by advancing questionable arguments about the purely secular problem of the relation between population growth and economic progress...

...The truly herculean effort required to maintain economic growth high enough to keep perpetually ahead of uncontrolled population expansion is just not likely to be forthcoming...

...The world's present population problems could be solved for a long time by a few mass famines, by a world-wide repetition of the Great Plag ues or, for that matter, by a few well-placed H-bombs...

...questions of whether population growth is an aid or an obstacle to raising living standards and of what the effects of limiting growth by encouraging the spread of birth control are likely to be...

...No doubt this is inevitable where moral and religious convictions regarding family, sex, child-bearing and the role of women —always emotion-laden topics—are at the very heart of the matter...

...it must eventually reach a point of stability...

...For birth control is already widely practiced in the major countries of Western civilization...

...Since what we loosely call the standard of living of a country is determined by the relation between the size of its population and its total economic production, it makes obvious sense to try to influence both sides of the numbers-output equation if we wish to raise the standard...

...And space travel will alleviate the continued pressure of growing numbers by permitting emigration to other planets, so the sky is literally no limit...

...It is therefore absurd to accuse the proponents of birth control of being misanthropes who want fewer people in the world and lack faith in the ability of science and technology to raise the standard of living...

...And if we consider such possible new sources of food as algae from the oceans or processed wood, prospects appear even more favorable...

...These conditions clearly are present in India, Pakistan, China and Egypt, and they are just as clearly absent in Canada, Australia and several South American nations...

...Thus the belief that mass use of birth control is an untried, newfangled notion amounting to an unprecedented departure from the wisdom and restraint of the past is without any foundation...

...The governments of several underdeveloped countries, most notably India, are committed to promoting voluntary birth control as part of their general objective of modernizing their economies and raising their living standards...

...Sometimes, it is true, those who voice alarm over world population growth do not make clear exactly why we should be alarmed...

...They also favor economic development designed to increase the production of all goods and services, not just food...

...They frequently paint horrendous pictures of a future world in which people are packed shoulder to shoulder on every square foot of space on the earth...

...We need have no difficulty in imagining what a world with universal birth control would be like...

...Students of population, long concerned with the relation between the increase of numbers and the availability of resources, find their subject at last receiving the attention its importance merits...

...Do not all these considerations justify those who pooh-pooh the alarmist talk about population explosions...

...Undeniably it will be difficult to persuade illiterate peasants to adopt effective methods of birth control...

...Yet this charge is frequently made by people who are determined to avoid recognizing the necessity of controlling population growth...

...I shall go even further and concede that a larger population could be supported at a higher standard of living than prevails today in the poorer countries...

...Do we want to see them solved this way ? I have made what many will regard as a damaging concession by admitting that the world is capable of supporting a considerably larger population...

...Greatly increased expenditures on foreign aid are going to be necessary in any case even where the receiving countries are vigorously trying to reduce their population growth...

...More accurately, it makes sense to try to control population growth as well as to increase output—if the population is already so densely settled that additional people will have no room to spread out and will not increase the productivity of labor by greater occupational specialization...

...This is the goal the East must now achieve under far more difficult conditions...