Where the News Ends
CHAMBERLIN, WILLIAM HENRY
WHERE the NEW ENDS Odds for Kennedy: A Probable 10-9 By William Henry Chamberlin NOW THAT THE tumult of the conventions has receded and with months of hard campaigning looming up. it may be...
...1960 is not 1928 and Harvard-educated Jack Kennedy is not plebeian Al Smith with "sidewalks of New York" mannerisms especially calculated to put up the backs of the Main Streets of the country—then considerably more important in the voting than now...
...The outlook may be different in 1964 if Nixon is decisively defeated...
...But as of now Nixon seems the best-qualified Republican standard bearer...
...whose vigorous appearance at the convention shows that he is very much in the arena still...
...Contrary to the disappointed partisans of Adlai Stevenson and Nelson Rockefeller, I believe the two parties put their best foot forward in the sense that they nominated their strongest candidates...
...Working for him are such factors as a rising Democratic tide in Congressional elections, the disappearance of Eisenhower's almost magical personal popularity, discontent with the policies of Ezra Taft Benson in the farm belt...
...If his religion is not a handicap the impression the Republicans hope to convey of his youth and inexperience in public affairs may be...
...John Kennedy-won every primary he entered, from New Hampshire to Oregon...
...There can be no doubt of Nixon's intention and ability to put up a tremendous fight in every state in the Union, of his ability to gauge and adapt himself to the political currents running in various parts of the country...
...both Kennedy and Nixon take to it like ducks to water...
...I have always been skeptical of the idea that Kennedy's religion would be an insuperable handicap, or even, perhaps, a handicap at all...
...they are loose coalitions which try to attract as many voters as pos sible...
...The New England Catholic Kennedy is neatly "balanced" by the Southern Protestant Johnson, who supplies the complement of maturity and legislative experience to Kennedy's youth and inspirational fire...
...Neither Eisenhower nor Steven son was deeply versed in practical politics...
...All the advance public-opinion polls showed a clear preference for Nixon...
...But the political cards are by no means all in Kennedy's hands...
...It deserves this name not only be cause of America's weight in world affairs, but because nothing in the world is quite like the personal com petition for the American Presidency...
...A perfect riposte would have been a Nixon-Rockefeller ticket for the Republicans...
...Hence, the very old tradition of the "balanced ticket," of candidates who will make special separate appeals...
...At the same time he is clearly ready to speak out for himself and modify Eisenhower policies where this seems dictated by necessity or political expediency...
...there is every probability that he would have won a plurality, if not a majority, had the machinery for holding a nation-wide primary been available...
...Rockefeller, however, could not be persuaded to take the second spot, but Nixon got the second-best thing: a smiling Rockefeller with a Nixon button instead of a Rockefeller sulking somewhere in his tent...
...There can be no doubt that most Americans do "like Ike...
...If American politics were run along ideological lines, it might have seemed more logical to choose Senator Hubert Humphrey, or some one else in political left field, to emphasize the left-of-center stance of the Democratic party...
...His close association with the Eisenhower Administration gives him a stamp of political experience and maturity, especially in foreign affairs...
...The conservative Republicans, especially strong in the Middle West, were not too happy about the modifications in the plat form civil rights and defense planks inserted at Nixon's insistence in line with Rockefeller's views...
...If I were forced to bet on the outcome as it looked shortly after the convention, 10 to 9 odds on Kennedy might be about right...
...Even in this age of multiple public opinion polls, numerous inquiring re porters and awesome UNIVAC machines it is dangerous to predict the outcome of a Presidential election, especially when the race is just getting under way...
...Two young pros have taken over the spotlight from two older amateurs...
...Kennedy's first brilliant stroke was en listing Lyndon Johnson to complete the ticket...
...As a candidate Rockefeller would probably have inspired open revolt, or at least a good deal of sullen apathy, come November...
...But American political parties are not doctrinaire groups, eager to exclude heretics...
...it may be possible to construct a form sheet on this greatest political race in the world...
...Those speculative 10 to 9 odds could be either lengthened or re versed before the eve of the voting...
...Kennedy's own youth, drive, energy and special appeal to his co-religionists and to some of the newer ethnic groups...
...And there seems little reason to believe Rockefeller would have run a stronger race than Nixon for the Republicans...
...he was a leader in the public-opinion polls...
Vol. 43 • August 1960 • No. 33
