After Tito What?
ALLEMANN, F. R.
Traveler's Notebook-2 After Tito What? By F. R. Allemann BELGRADE AS SEEN through Western eyes, Yugoslavia now presents a much more "normal" picture than ever before. A country like East Germany...
...The existing differences, of course, are merely a matter of degree...
...With Tito gone, the smoldering conflict within the Party and the unsolved conflict between the nationalities might combine to create a harsh test which would not only threaten the liberalization but the very existence of Yugoslavia...
...This is clear from the growing tension between the various nationalities of this federation of many ethnic groupings...
...A few years ago, Tito was asked what he regarded as the primary goal of his life...
...state interference in the individual's private life...
...One thing, however, is sure...
...the South was influenced by Byzantine tradition, Russian Orthodox faith and centuries of Turkish rule...
...This may be one reason why Tito is reacting to the new conflict with the Kremlin differently than he did in 1948, when his offensive elan in dealing with the Cominform was so obvious...
...Among the Yugoslav Communists, from the ranks up to the higher echelons, there are many who like the economic benefits of this development but are unhappy about the tendency toward "bourgeoisation" which goes hand in hand with it...
...This entails a considerable rise in cost, but Peking apparently will do anything to harm the hated "revisionists...
...Today, after 15 years of his regime, Tito is farther away from this goal than he was a few years ago...
...But his further assumption that he could fare better with Khrushchev than with any of Khrushchev's competitors proved a grave miscalculation...
...The differences between the various ethnic sections of the Yugoslav state, which are rapidly becoming more pronounced, also stem from very tangible economic and political considerations...
...They strongly resent the fact that a large portion of the product of their labor goes into the development of Bosnia, Macedonia or Montenegro...
...At that time, Tito's regime was confronted with a total boycott by its former allies, and it was exposed to a series of massive military threats...
...It carefully avoids any strong criticism of the Soviet system, which, in the early 1950s, was a major target of Yugoslav writers and radio commentators...
...This may be due to the fact that the Party leadership has not yet recovered from the failures of 1957...
...Within the Party, however, the situation is different...
...Peking's stubborn hostility toward Belgrade has resulted in a shift of all Chinese trade with Central Europe from the Yugoslav transit harbor of Rijeka to the Italian Trieste...
...But Tito is not a youngster and his health is failing...
...With his conciliatory gestures toward the East, Tito gives the impression of a weakened pugilist who tries to put up with the blows of his adversary without hitting back...
...This may seem like idle speculation, but the very fact that such talk can now be heard here indicates that the equilibrium of Yugoslavia's internal politics hinges precariously upon the person of Marshal Tito...
...He answered that he would Hke to see "the Yugoslav people really grow together as a nation," and to have even the most backward areas reach a standard of firing and culture equal to that of the Slovenes...
...But the exchange of goods, which had been built up steadily until 1957, has been toned down only gradually...
...While one cannot compare the Yugoslav situation with that in Soviet Russia, it is nevertheless highly questionable whether a dictatorship of two men could survive any more in Belgrade than in Moscow...
...It is no accident that the Slovenian Kardelj—strongly supported by Groats like Zagreb's Minister President Bakaric—represents the "liberal" line and Rankovic, the Serbian, a relative orthodoxy...
...His polemics against the Chinese, who once were considered Yugoslavia's secret allies, and whose sudden and deadly enmity came as a surprise, are hard and sharp...
...Their ideological differences as well as their practical stands reflect some of the old conflicts between the North, with its Central European orientation, and the Balkan South, with its East European orientation...
...But this comes close to being accurate...
...There is little to be spoiled, anyway...
...True, East Germany and Czechoslovakia have cancelled a number of aid programs...
...Apparently, it still does not quite know where it stands or where it is going...
...The replies to the Kremlin polemics against Yugoslav "revisionism" seem curiously restrained, almost totally defensive...
...As one prominent member of the Central Committee told me, some Party leaders feel the time has come for a "more daring ideological counter-offensive" but both Yugoslavia and the Eastern bloc are in different positions today than they were in 1948...
...Instead of profiting from the victory of the man on whom he had relied, Tito soon found himself between all chairs—a most uncomfortable position for a proud dictator...
...Students of the regime feel that, where it does not develop automatically out of the "socialist market economy," it represents a delicate compromise between opposing theories at the top...
...Today, Belgrade simply rebuffs any attacks from the East without carrying the fight into the enemy camp...
...It tries, badly bruised and unsure, to maneuver along the lines of the least resistance...
...It is difficult to determine whether this liberalization was initiated by the ruling group, or whether it was a casual or even unwilling loosening of the reins...
...While Tito's authority remains uncontested, his prestige with the top leadership has suffered considerably...
...The costs for this have to be borne by the more developed sections of the country, and they are becoming increasingly unhappy about this "exploitation...
...As a clever foreign observer put it: Tito managed to bet on the right horse and lose anyway...
...What will happen when he is no longer at the helm...
...Only in one area Tito has taken off his gloves...
...Also, most Party functionaries, at least outside Croatia and Slovenia, would support any measures which might increase and restore the Party's role...
...For while Tito's flirtation with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev pleased a majority of the Party functionaries, his turn to the East never was very popular with the people...
...It does not want to ruin its almost normal trade with its ideological enemies by pushing things too far...
...They have become even more explosive now because in an underhanded way they are tied in with the subterranean conflict between the liberal and the orthodox wings of the Party—with the former drawing its support from the "Latin" and the latter from the "Cyrillic" republics...
...Tito himself represents this compromise...
...Rankovic, it is said, will take over the Party leadership, and Kardelj will head the Government...
...Indeed, Tito started out with the correct premise that Khrushchev would win the power struggle in the Soviet Union...
...The poor South, on the other hand, looks with envy upon the "privileged" North, where much higher wages and profit-shares are being paid (partly, no doubt, because of the higher quality of labor...
...It would be an oversimplification to say that Croats and Slovenes have had too little decentralization and the Serbs too much...
...Most of what makes Communist party chief Walter Ulbricht's regime so repugnant to the East Germans has been quietly dismantled by Titoism: the ever-present, sickening propaganda...
...Ideological nonsense has been reduced to a minimum, the vast majority of the people are free to arrange their lives as they see fit...
...A country like East Germany seems much more "exotic" to the "capitalist" visitor today than the Yugoslav "People's Republic...
...New agreements with Poland and Czechoslovakia even envision an increased trade...
...His attempts to gain ,new influence over the Eastern bloc by a rapprochment with Moscow has ended in an obvious fiasco...
...The Party leaders know that Britain and the United States will not forget Tito's love affair with Khrushchev...
...The moment Khrushchev was firmly in the saddle, Yugoslavia got the whip rather than the hoped-for lumps of sugar...
...But this is not the only reason for Belgrade's present unwillingness to take the offensive against Moscow...
...The "hard" school is led, according to reliable sources, by the Serbian Party leader, Alexander Rankovic, while the "soft" school is led by Tito's present deputy, Edvard Kardelj...
...Insiders favor Rankovic in such a struggle because the Party, while not as powerful as it used to be, still represents the regime's most important force...
...Sooner or later, any oneparty state will produce a contest of power between the party chief and the head of state...
...During the past few years, he has played a big game in world politics, often against the advice of some of his close collaborators, and he has lost this game...
...According to persistent Belgrade rumors, Tito intends to solve the question of his succession in Solomonic fashion...
...The tensions resulting from this situation have pawn aver the past few years...
...Today, and with good reason, it does not see any military danger, and even the economic pressure from the East is relatively mild...
...As the gulf between Belgrade and the "socialist camp" widens, the Government finds it easier to win the sympathy of the masses...
...In its new conflict with Moscow, the Yugoslav regime seems to have lost almost all of its former ideological aggressiveness...
...At the time, this seemed a rather modest and not very Utopian god...
...the hopelessly over-organized planning, which crumbles before the simplest everyday tasks...
...Even with a thoroughly "collective" leadership in the background, this division of functions can only provide a transition period...
...And as long as Tito holds the reins, they are not likely to lead to a critical clash...
...They know, too, that while the West cannot afford to write off Yugoslavia completely, it will no longer embrace Yugoslavia as it did at the time of Tito's break with Stalin...
...Thus, new crises—of a magnitude and of consequences which could go far beyond the rumbles of the "Djilas affair"—may well be expected...
...Belgrade's current conflict with Moscow has caused some foreign policy problems for the Yugoslav regime, but it has also led to an inner consolidation...
...Belgrade, too, is much more interested in keeping its new Eastern markets, which are important for its industrial products...
...This would result in centralization of the Party by the Serbian boss and decentralization of the Government by the Slovenian leader...
...The North was shaped by the traditions of the Hapsburg monarchy and Roman Catholicism...
...In its industrialization drive, the Government places systematic emphasis on the "underdeveloped" areas...
Vol. 42 • February 1959 • No. 7
