America's Passive Diplomacy

...it may make the typical conflict situations quite ambiguous in order to make the reaction more difficult and to avoid our taking a clear stand on what is important, perhaps even vital, for our existence...

...A good illustration of the technical changes in policymaking is the transfer of "Polish" submarines to Egypt...

...The war was entered without any positive thought, merely in order to "stop" the Nazis...

...When government officials travel, they arc rarely the open-minded observers: they are instructed and committed...

...It is more: it is a threat...

...The antagonism shows no signs of disappearing and the technological progress, if anything, is intensified from year to year...

...can go on: much reduced in position, influence, respect...

...Has it occurred to us, then, to say that they have been deliberately producing dirty bombs (as they probably have been), i.e., bombs that rely for their effect more on fallout than on blast...

...Now we are once more at the same point...

...If only more common people from different lands will come to know each other, the nations will arrive at understandings...

...But what about the other life, following a peaceful surrender with no immediate physical destruction and no immediate death for the masses (only the usual mass execution of present-day leaders and their hangers-on) ? Though they will not die outright, the masses of the people will still perish, sinking from their present state of freedom and comfort to the subhuman existence of a mass animal...

...That is what we strive for...

...The successor has the greatest difficulties in repairing the damage done and will not easily convince the other side that with him secrets will be safe, confidences respected...

...How original...

...7. The Russian scientific and technological advance is due only to spies and the capture of German scientists at the end of the last war...

...Shall we sink them...

...It has thereby deprived itself of a very powerful instrument...

...second, because the shifts in balance are, if anything, going toward the other side since the U.S...

...But still we have a notion of this kind of catastrophe...

...But even writers of fiction have failed to give us a deep impression of the nature and extent of this catastrophe...

...The passive nature of our present policy is of the same kind as that exhibited vis-a-vis Hitler until the fateful moment arrived...

...We see before our eyes the inexorable, destabilizing influences arising from the ever-widening disparity of wealth among nations and the swiftly increasing awareness of this fact among the poor countries...

...This means that limited wars become a possibility...

...American responses are usually naive, traditional, predictable...

...This contrasts with the militant, aggressive doctrine of a Communist world revolution...

...Shall we attempt to dissuade "Poland" from "selling" any more submarines...

...Next, let us consider the above freelance travelers—not to mention ordinary tourists...

...But the techniques are many...

...Communism, of course, feeds on the dissatisfaction that must exist among some groups in all countries...

...Open covenants, openly arrived at" is one way of imagining it...

...Shall we protest...

...But perhaps with some hope...

...Secrecy of the proceedings, even secrecy of the very fact of a negotiation, is often unavoidable...

...Sometimes we have offered and given money, for example, to Yugoslavia and Poland...

...However, if the policy of the country is conducted with many such views guiding it, then we are indeed in great trouble...

...There is mainly a fear for the physical standard of living, at best a defensive philosophy which can hardly inspire us, let alone gain the great mass of the uncommitted countries of the world...

...Sometimes whole nations have been wiped out...

...Hardly any worthwhile arrangement has ever been made in this manner...

...But the economy of this country could at first absorb all this...

...We may have to pay higher prices for some raw materials, we may lose our overseas investments, our exports may shrink or, similarly, they may have to be made under very unfavorable conditions...

...The words remain the same but the capabilities change...

...From then on the downfall would be rapid...

...This is not a strictly military matter...

...Or "selling" some to Turkey to be stationed in the Black Sea...

...But if the U.S...

...We do our best to destroy that confidence when former ambassadors and other high officials, after some important mission abroad, immediately 'break into print—sacrificing to the Great American God of Publicity—telling all about it without fail...

...This may very well be so...

...Imperfectly...

...But for the direction of policy it is necessary to stick to the facts and be guided by them...

...Such threats will therefore have a tendency to become effective, unless there exists a specific means by which the threatened party can counter the threatened limited operation in a similarly limited but effective manner...

...Secret negotiations are obviously also dangerous...

...When the results are quite different from our expectations we become unsure of ourselves, but usually with the consequence that the false principles upon which we built our actions are reiterated in the vain hope that they may thereby become true and practical...

...The time is with us when even a moderate edge gained by one side over the other, coupled with a will to exploit it ruthlessly, creates new possibilities of threats, ultimatums, blackmail, open and veiled...

...This talk quickly subsided after having produced a great deal of trouble and even ridicule, since nothing was done when the test came without our prompting and unexpectedly...

...Shall we exert pressure on Egypt...

...but one might at least make provision to let imaginative men come to the fore...

...Threats are compatible with the mutual overall ability of the countries to destroy each other...

...But are we really always deterred...

...It has not...

...All this publicity promptly destroys the precarious contacts...

...However...

...There are many counter-moves of a positive nature which would demonstrate the existence of flexibility and imagination in our policy techniques that are now not discernible...

...The threat is directed toward an important position...

...Our free economy is in every respect superior...

...may not always foster a friendly attitude: it may do the opposite: awaken envy, greed, lust for occupation...

...The appearance of "neutral" submarines in Mediterranean waters is an enormous complication for the Sixth Fleet...

...9. We abide by the letter of agreements, cherish the United Nations, and therefore our actions are also just and sound...

...3. The Russians are dissatisfied with their regime...

...of this there can be no question...

...This article is adapted from a chapter of his forthcoming book...

...Negotiate we must...

...the lines will become blurred...

...This would be a slow and uncertain process and unfortunately there is no time...

...Here are some of the worst of those beliefs: 1. We are going to "win," because we are free, have a better, juster cause than the others, have always come out on top, and time will work for us...

...The Question of National Defense, which Random House will publish on November 9. case in an appellate court could generate with the general public in the United States...

...The resistance by the European countries is not a counterexample to this statement: They managed to resist Communist domination because the formidable power of the U.S...

...America's Passive Diplomacy An expert views some myths and illusions By Oskar Morgenstern FIFTH COLUMN, subversion and infiltration are some of the techniques of warfare that have been reviverl in the 20th century...

...One cannot demand that people in crucial positions should suddenly become original...

...The American Secretary of State only had spoken in big words, already in 1953, telling how we would "liberate"' the Baltic States, intimating that this might even be done by force...

...First of all, governments make political decisions, not the traveling students, professors, journalists and comedians...

...5. We make up in quality what we lack in quantity...

...The role of ambassadors has dwindled compared with former times, because of modern communications and the travels of foreign ministers...

...The fallout debate proceeds, while Russia with complete unconcern explodes devices that produce more fallout than any American test ever did...

...If the threat is toward a minor position of the other country—minor compared with its survival, and that covers a rather large spectrum of possibilities!—it is doubtful that all will be risked in order to gain nothing...

...We can then lose West Germany, or the Middle East, and then Italy, and still the U.S...

...Some have fought for their physical standard of living...

...These are the consequences of the deadly con-formism imposed upon our life and thought at the schools, the universities, by the business corporations and through advertising...

...In other words, foreign people and nations like us...

...Threats raise the question of the effectiveness of deterrence...

...Such terms would certainly provide for reduction in the military power of the United States, unquestionably an immediate impounding of its nuclear material...

...If he accepts the tenor of the arguments so far presented, he will agree that under the present circumstances it is exceedingly dangerous to adhere to such maxims even though some have a modicum of plausibility...

...An outstanding development in the policy area is the Russian tactic of suggesting negotiations of one kind and making threats of another kind elsewhere at the same time...

...Somewhere between these end points lies peace and understanding...

...It is difficult to foresee any change for the better...

...We have not instigated internal dissatisfaction in satellite countries, trying to pry them loose...

...we did not lift one finger when the great revolt occurred in East Germany in 1953 or when Hungary tried forcefully to throw off the Russian yoke in 1956...

...We are at present focusing attention on the physical holocaust that a large thermonuclear, atomic war would surely bring to the U.S...

...The leader will have no difficulty in seeing the falseness of such views and I shall therefore not refute them one by one...

...Diplomats have understood this for millennia...

...Our soldiers are better trained and our weapons and machines are better made...

...8. Our intentions are good, moral, peaceful, and if only we restate them often and loud enough they will ultimately be convincing to the world...

...What does it mean to give in...

...We work through "legal channels" and thereby stimulate about as much interest and appreciation among the people of other countries as a hearing of an anti-trust OSKAR MORGENSTERN is professor of economics at Prince-Ion University...

...As far as war is concerned, it is always made by governments and only fought by the people...

...secrecy, like the ancient Chinese politeness, allows withdrawal from, and even failure of, conversations without necessarily bad consequences...

...What is our answer...

...Also, travel from foreign countries to the U.S...

...This is particularly true if they become lodestars for official pronouncements and determine acts of national policy...

...They have every right to do so...

...Inadequately...

...For example, could not counter-moves be made, such as stationing an American submarine in the Baltic Sea for each one that appears in the Mediterranean...

...Though they are bent on learning as much as possible about the other countries, and their opinions might have a good influence, there simply is not enough time for the slow process of forming opinions and conveying them into the stream of political decision-making to become effective...

...Even their wives must rush into print about the peculiar habits of the diplomatic corps with which they came into contact, describing with arrogance due to ignorance the backwardness of dress, housing, food, etc., of the "natives...

...Apart from embassy and consular personnel, few other government employes are ever in a position to observe and comment freely...

...The case against using them against others appears to everyone unquestionably much weaker...

...6. The Russian satellite states will defect the moment there is some "real trouble" for Russia...

...Suppose some of these submarines follow our aircraft carriers, perhaps at the respectful distance of 30 to 50 miles...

...But it would take a man with great power of illusion to see an acceptable alternative in surrender, and to see surrender in a better light than death...

...goes, then all goes—in particular, the U.S...

...Publicity commits...

...Shall we withdraw the Sixth Fleet...

...Yet it is clear that without a positive program we shall be pushed back more and more...

...A clear example is offered by the construction of bases for the Strategic Air Command or the creation of missile sites in Europe and Africa...

...When they observe matters not fitting to current official line of thought—whatever its substance—they are not encouraged to insist on their different views...

...4. A planned economy, such as Russia's, won't work...

...The West has not used these devices...

...These moves and questions can be anticipated, but judging from other occurrences there is no evidence that we have a positive policy...

...The sharp lines will be deliberately destroyed: Russia may find it very much to its advantage to avoid producing clear alternatives...

...A desperate effort will be made to gain a pause for thought...

...There is an asymmetry here which rests in the very nature of war and its acceptance by men as a means for settling their disputes...

...The people have at any rate only a negligible direct influence upon the conduct of national affairs...

...their political system will break down from within...

...One basic difficulty with proclaiming peaceful intentions—which are undoubtedly true and sound convincing to ourselves—is that they are accompanied by acts which only we and our allies will interpret as peaceful...

...Nothing, that is, except the destruction of the enemy at the price of one's own annihilation...

...Yet at the same time a pear ultimatum is issued threatening us in Berlin, or the possession of functioning intercontinental missiles is used to exert pressure on visiting Senators...

...Yet what should one expect of ambassadors who were picked for their jobs only because their contributions to the campaign fund reached or exceeded a certain figure...

...Sixth Fleet, which represents a major part of our deterrent capability...

...stood behind them...

...We recoil from that picture of death and destruction, so unbelievably great...

...The speed-up in making more dangerous and powerful weapons systems, with which these travelers will hardly be acquainted, will have much more influence...

...We also hope that means can be found for both gradually to climb down together from the peak of power, instead of raising it still further, as they must, so long as the antagonism continues and the technological progress persists...

...2. We are the handsome, not the "ugly" Americans—to borrow a phrase from a current book...

...Russia, on the other hand, infiltrates and undermines—wherever possible...

...If the broad masses believe maxims of the kind listed above, it does not matter very much—though it would be better if they were less naive...

...We deem it "not cricket" to use more imaginative methods in the international political struggle...

...We try to imagine sometimes, as well as we can, what the thermonuclear destruction would mean...

...The Spaniards offer an example: They were drawn for these reasons to make war on Mexico and the Inca Empire...

...Each new basic discovery in the weapons field nullifies even important moves toward reconciliation and disarmament...

...Signs that this policy is being pursued are already before our eyes...

...Up to then, the Western powers did not even know what they did not want to happen...

...Neither should happen...

...She wishes to destroy the effectiveness of the U.S...

...Instead of imposing a burden upon the adversary, we adjust as best we can to the lead he so frequently assumes...

...Even though the Communists may have many more soldiers, they are no match for ours, man for man...

...We can lose the position in question, say Berlin, and yet survive...

...The improvements in communications have made them cheaper than ever before...

...The gold treasure of our times is the power to produce for the benefit of the victor...

...but it is not necessary to destroy through inepitude their remaining usefulness...

...It is against all inherent properties of bargaining and negotiating processes...

...Consider the case of an ultimatum or blackmailing action by Russia against the West...

...Surrender does not merely mean that there would be a different government in Washington, that taxes would increase, that the newspapers would be censored and carry fewer, if any, advertisements, that the schools would be reorganized, that there would be no more stock market, perhaps a little more inflation and similar inconveniences, but that, for the rest, life would after all go on somewhat in the same fashion as before...

...But the danger must not be exaggerated...

...Nor is there any chance that the "will of the people" could manifest itself when conditions become too unpleasant...

...There is an undercurrent of folklore running through our contacts with foreign countries, whether friendly or not, that has a deep influence upon our actions...

...Then the hard and horrible question—what can or should be given up in order to avoid destruction—will be with the weaker side...

...Nothing could be farther from the truth...

...It is another to produce at the same time a certain kind of verbiage and to expect that the latter will be considered on an equal footing with the former...

...I cannot suppress a comment on the last point, because it expresses a very widespread belief...

...Ultimately their greater quality will be decisive...

...The automatic reaction to the violation of formerly sharply drawn lines will not take place...

...Instead we engage further in struggling with the genetic significance of minute changes in carbon 14...

...But without confidence in the preservation of secrecy even that form of contact will fail...

...What kind of pressure...

...We almost always leave the initiative to the opponent, under conditions where having it often gives a substantial advantage...

...Suppose that their number increases to 10, to 25...

...Rarely only can words be counted among such facts...

...But will we, can we, tolerate this...

...No Western nation will resort to such a policy, first, because the time when it was profitable has passed, or rather, was allowed to slip by...

...Yet there is no escape from words...

...As weapons become more effective, more horrible and all-encompassing, one will find plenty of good reasons why they should not be used: that is, against oneself...

...Therefore the exchange of students, professors, dancers, musicians and comedians will certainly promote peace...

...So we have come to accept "technical" discussions on halting nuclear tests (during which we unwittingly may have given away valuable information about weapons), and discussions on surprise attacks, when by the very definition of "surprise" not even an enumeration of the different possible surprises can be made...

...Russia could not wage a prolonged war, particularly because her agriculture is so unproductive that food shortages would force her down...

...Their peculiarity in the present struggle is that they are used only by the Communists (they were, of course, a favorite tool of Fascists and Nazis...

...It is clear that if a threat in the form of an ultimatum is made at all, this is in itself an expression of the lack of belief that an immediate counter-move by force is to be expected...

...They will eventually be recognized as such by the world...

...Perhaps even they cannot truly visualize what it would mean to the survivors to see 50, 80, or 100 million people killed within a few days or hours and tens of millions grievously ill, living without hope in hovels amidst poisonous radioactive debris...

...People have died for ideas and ideals for centuries...

...How can this soft thinking be overcome...

...But Russia, like every other nation acting rationally, would be grossly at fault if she did not take into account our capabilities rather than our words...

...we may form the idea strongly enough to find it totally inacceptable ever to include such a disaster in the price we would be willing to pay for rejecting any demand made on us...

...This will be all to the good if it is filled with hard thinking about alternatives and not given to the kind of vague notions which were already being set into circulation, say, during the Berlin crisis of 1959...

...All very laudable but for the most part completely beside the (political) point...

...Widespread death and destruction are a certainty if a large-scale war is our fate...

...It is one thing to build bases and otherwise to strengthen one's power...

...Our mind refuses to tell us that life after this war would be possible, or if possible, worth living...

...There is no longer any need to occupy a country massively with foreign troops in order to impose a foreign will...

...We do not even know what we should not tolerate...

...Gradually there would be less expansion, the population pressure would become most unpleasant, unemployment would begin to appear, eventually political upheavals would ensue, great efforts would be made to come to terms with the enlarged, more powerful Communist bloc...

...Therefore, in our answer we need the power to impose the same kind of picture upon the enemy so that both will now and forever be deterred from considering the deliberate use of such power and will make every effort to prevent its accidental release...

...Why should not we be ready...

...They are to serve for our protection, and since we do not plan to attack but only to deter, and to strengthen the deterrent power of allies, we hope the Russians will agree with us that there is no conflict between our avowed peaceful intentions and subsequent acts...

...So Hitler had the initiative and could nibble away...

...It uses at least the underdog, perhaps even broad masses, while we support the governing classes, the tax-evading rich, cruel dictatorial regimes, colonial masters...

...is making a small and ineffective effort to preserve the precarious stalemate...

...Assume, therefore, that Russia has a definite advantage in power, either strategic or for limited war, but the latter in a massive way, and that she now threatens the West under such conditions...

...This is what an average but idealistic professor of political science thought...

...Russia would clearly like to operate a fleet in the Mediterranean but cannot without bases...

...Nor is it bad...