Communist China's First Decade-12 Southeast Asia's View

...You trust us...

...It is therefore not surprising that the popular American view of Asia is that Communist China and democratic India are engaged in a great "race" to become more modern and more industrialized...

...The fact that the Chinese embassies are prepared to make a great fuss over minor matters has, indeed, forced Southeast Asian governments to look to them with a degree of respect and even fear...

...These memories tend in general to place India at a disadvantage...

...The fact is that the Communists have their own means of establishing contacts, and they do not find it necessary or desirable to work too much in open public view...

...HISTORICALLY, Americans have tended to think of Asia as consisting of only China and Japan...

...These developments signal the fact that Communist China is gradually becoming a great power capable of protecting the interests of her citizens abroad and of advancing a vigorous foreign policy...

...In a sense, the Chinese have been trying to "buy" international power "on the installment plan"-they would like to use at present the power which they will actually only have and fully "pay for" a few years from now...

...The particular features of Peking's domestic policy and the techniques employed in changing China's economy are of little interest to other Asians, who are, in contrast, immensely impressed with the fact that China is now in a position to export political power and to act the part of a great power...

...This unnerving aspect of Chinese Communist behavior is further emphasized by their practice of being gentle with respect to vague and abstract matters, but tenaciously firm and dogmatic on concrete problems, no matter how trivial...

...India was a British problem and was in no way related to what we thought of as our "Asian problems...

...There is very little of the classical diplomatist in the representatives of the new China...

...Their attitude stems less from a calloused view of life and more from the traditional attitude that within Chinese society the inhumanity of man toward man reaches its highest point...

...Before World War II, we were hardly aware of the separate identities of the various countries of Southeast Asia, and the region as a whole was so stable under colonial rule that it rarely attracted our attention...

...The picture that Southeast Asians have of China has, however, been changing during the last few years...

...Except among a few highly Westernized intellectuals, India as a country does not evoke as much admiration among Southeast Asians as it does among Americans...

...Not only do they see themselves and their neighbors from a different historical and geographical perspective, but they also tend to see the future of Asia in terms of a far richer choice of alternatives...

...In particular, we cannot go on insulting Southeast Asians by suggesting that they are so lacking in their own political dynamics that they are only waiting to follow the Pied Piper's tune of either India or China, whichever happens to show the greatest progress in industrialization...

...It is significant that despite the relative uncertainty of the last few years, a growing number of Overseas Chinese believe their personal future is wrapped up entirely in the future of the particular Southeast Asian country where they now live...

...There will be those Southeast Asians who will be easily impressed by this, for it is a popular notion in the region that industrialized powers are more deserving of respect and deference than non-industrialized countries...

...If the countries of Southeast Asia are to make the necessary adjustments, they will need all the help they can receive...

...The significance of such a development should be little more than that China will be able to do on a larger scale the type of light manufacturing which it had shown some talent for as long ago as before World War II...

...This is of concern to Southeast Asians...

...Indeed, they have even suffered setbacks with those most susceptible to their influences...

...Just at the time when the center of our "old Asia," China, was falling under the domination of the Communists, we also had to adjust to the idea of an independent India which sought to speak for all of Asia...

...The future struggle is going to be more in terms of the factors that usually govern interstate relations...

...Only if we and the Southeast Asians are prepared to develop our own policies can we hope to counter the Chinese efforts...

...At a more fundamental level, it is extremely doubtful that any of the Southeast Asian countries will choose to follow the paths of Communist China despite any of its apparent successes in industrial growth...

...In part, they responded, just as Westerners did, to action they saw as evil and immoral...

...Within such a framework of stability, the relative growth rate of Communist China will have a less disturbing effect, and the various countries will be better able to follow their own distinctive courses of development...

...The effect has been to recognize China as a major power...

...In tropical Asia, the Chinese have always been considered hardworking, tenacious, disciplined and capable of great ingenuity and determination in economic activities...

...Southeast Asians have been considerably less disturbed...

...Thus, even rather commonplace developments can be turned to great advantage...

...For many Southeast Asians, this also means that all care must be taken not to provoke China...

...That didn't hurt, did it...

...The foreign relations style of the Communist Chinese in those countries where they are recognized and can carry on their policies openly is remarkably similar to that of the school-yard bully: They seem to be constantly demanding that these little countries give the brave answer to such queries as, "We are friends, aren't we...

...In all the scurrying about, the only deference that the Chinese ambassador apparently receives is that his is the only lap that is never occupied...

...It is not surprising, therefore, that He spite of increased criticisms of Chinese domestic programs, the communities of Overseas Chinese in those Southeast Asian countries which recognize Peking have become increasingly appreciative of the protection the Chinese Communist embassies are prepared to offer them...

...These Burmese find it hard to appreciate why the United States should favor such a development, which they feel violates good sense, the basic principles of free trade and an international division of labor according to competitive advantage...

...Japan and India...

...of course, the Chinese Communists are using such forms of economic warfare to obtain control of the Overseas Chinese communities...

...It was, for example, widely noted in Rangoon that after the Army had come to power there, it was primarily Indian and even Burmese merchants who were arrested for "contributing to high prices...

...It is difficult to foresee this kind of Asia, for it has never existed before...

...In part, the policy appears to be guided by the belief that anything that is done to further the position of the Chinese in the Southeast Asian economies will eventually work to the advantage of China...

...During this past year, when China was experiencing as drastic a series of changes as any society has ever experienced in a few months' time, there were scarcely any reverberations in the neighboring countries of Southeast Asia...

...It is not going to be easy for the weak and loosely organized societies of Southeast Asia to learn to live next to a major power...

...Whatever the actual probabilities might be, it is extremely significant that some Chinese feel this way...

...They will have to learn the techniques necessary for survival as the next-door neighbors of a restless and ambitious power...

...In recent years, however, we have had to create in our mind's eye a new image of Asia...

...In the meantime, however, it is significant that most Southeast Asians do not share this picture of the state of Asia...

...Communist China's First Decade — 12 SOUTHEAST ASIA'S VIEW By Lucian W. Pye This is the twelfth of a special series which has included articles on National Character, the Party, the Peasants, the Commune Controversy, the Party Leadership, Education, the Economy, Literary Developments, the Overseas Chinese, the Minorities, and Justice and the Law...

...while the districts containing the Chinese shops were hardly disturbed...

...The year of the "Great Leap Forward," of com-munalization, of thousands of village blacksmiths setting up their iron-working furnaces, passed with remarkably little notice on the part of Southeast Asians...

...Peking, however, will certainly strive to gain the maximum political advantage from this development by presenting itself to Southeast Asia as the newest member of the "club of industrial nations...

...For the first time, Overseas Chinese are receiving the protection of a strong government, and they are finding it a very satisfying experience...

...This technique has the advantage of creating uncertainty and...

...In Jakarta, the Chinese Communist embassy has acted to support the interests of all Chinese, in spite of general statements to the effect that the Chinese in Indonesia should no longer consider themselves Chinese citizens...

...The Chinese Communists have, of course, sought to facilitate the acceptance of this new picture of China as a great power, and indeed to exaggerate the picture whenever possible...

...The campaign was focused on Singapore and Malaya, but in the end the effect of the campaign was only to increase China's exports from 2.5 per cent to slightly less than 5 per cent of the total imports received by that area...

...Thus, in the past few months, the Chinese embassy in Rangoon has forced the Burmese Government to close a movie that was critical of Communist China, and to deny visas to a Hong Kong football team, some of whose members, the Communists claimed, had played on a Nationalist Chinese team...

...The objects of such treatment often feel that the smiles of the Communists are their only protection from what would otherwise be an uninhibited and coldly calculating foe...

...The prospect of becoming an object of Chinese policies has produced fairly widespread, but unarticulated, anxieties and uncertainties...

...There are, of course, great differences in the popular images of China and India from one country to another in the region, as well as within each country...

...Unfortunately, however, we shall not be able to provide them with effective assistance unless we first develop a more realistic picture of the current state of Asia...

...Under the circumstances, the brave thing is often precisely the thing the Communists want them to do, for it usually means the country must isolate itself even further from others who would be its friends...

...It is a country to be neither imitated nor provoked...

...Possibly in a profound way this popular American view of Asia will prove eventually to be correct...

...In order to anchor our policies in reality, to say nothing of giving them a minimum degree of respectability, we must recognize the distinctive individuality of the various countries of Southeast Asia, as well as of India and China...

...As long as the Nationalist Government needs the support of every government it can get to retain its position in the United Nations and the free world, it can do little to protect the individual interests of the Chinese in Southeast Asia...

...Southeast Asians are going to copy neither the Chinese nor the Indians, if only because for at least the next decade the vast majority of Southeast Asians will continue to enjoy a better life and a higher standard of living than will the majority of Indians and Chinese...

...At the same time, however, there is a strong element of fear and uncertainty in what might be considered the basic Southeast Asian view of China...

...They have not, however, had a record of unqualified success in all their attempts to impress Southeast Asians...

...Through extensive publicity and some spectacularly low pricing on a few select items, the Chinese Communists sought to impress Southeast Asia with the idea that China had already become the major low-cost producer of light consumer goods, food stuffs and textiles in Asia...

...Southeast Asians are likely to give the benefit of any doubts to Communist pretentious, if for no other reason than that the dangers of underestimating Chinese capabilities are more obvious than those that might follow from overestimating them...

...For example, in both Rangoon and Jakarta the Chinese seem completely unaware that most people find it at least undignified, if not downright comical, to see eight or nine Chinese diplomats climbing in and out of the same car...

...In particular, they have been disturbed by the harsh manner in which the Chinese Communist Government has been treating not its own citizens, but rather its neighbors...

...You are not afraid of us, are you...

...You aren't going to complain, are you...

...Here, Lucian W. Pye, a professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and author of Guerrilla Communism in Malaya, discusses the image of Red China in Southeast Asia...

...Indeed, it is all too likely that they will vacillate between under- and overestimating the degree of latitude they can expect to have in their relations with Communist China...

...The very speed with which the Chinese react to apparently insignificant events can have a jarring effect on Southeast Asians who are led to wonder whether there is anything that can pass unnoticed by the Chinese...

...For example, the Communists have for the last two years been following a policy of advancing extensive credits and overdrafts to Chinese businessmen throughout Southeast Asia...

...for Southeast Asians have known, and had strong opinions about, Indians and Chinese for a long time...

...No other Asian government is in a strong position in looking after its nationals...

...Similarly, there are elements in the other neighboring countries who feel their interests would be threatened by India's plans, and thus they do not share the American anxiety about the rate of Indian development...

...In South Vietnam, the Nationalist Chinese embassy could not even make a strong protest when President Ngo Dinb Diem ruled that all Chinese would have to become Vietnamese citizens...

...The Chinese, of course, also gain some advantage through their approach because reality will probably catch up with many of their claims by the time people realize they were initially bluffing...

...In Burma, the Chinese Communists outbid all other producers to supply the sugar for the entire country, but they proved incapable of meeting the delivery dates...

...It will be extremely difficult for the smaller countries of Southeast Asia to absorb the shock that is bound to come with the emergence of a major power on the border of the region...

...If there is to be a relatively stable balance of power in Asia, we must be prepared to become a fully committed element within it, and the Southeast Asians must develop the skills necessary for living next to a powerful and treacherous neighbor...

...Contrary to all the canons of traditional diplomacy, the official representatives of Communist China appear to be insensitive to the opinions of others about their individual behavior...

...We must, like the Southeast Asians, become accustomed to thinking of a new Asia, which will be characterized by a three-way balance of power involving China...

...In most cases, the growth of this sense of distance from Communist China has been coupled with a realization that some of the Southeast Asian countries will continue to develop at a faster rate than China...

...For example, there is little reason to doubt that in the next decade China will be providing much of the cheap manufactured consumer goods for Asia in much the same way as Japan did in the 1920s...

...During the last few years, the Chinese have sought to portray themselves less as a friendly and neighborly country and more as a great and determined power...

...In reacting to the Chinese campaign of suppression in Tibet, many of the more politically conscious Southeast Asians found it possible to express their deep feelings about Communist China...

...In two of the Southeast Asian countries, it seems that overdrafts from the Bank of China to Chinese businessmen have been used to finance anti-Communist organizations...

...Nor do they meet the new American ideal of the shirt-sleeved diplomat who communicates mainly with the common folk...

...In contrast, in the countries which recognize the Nationalist Government, the Overseas Chinese know they can expect very little support from the Chinese embassy...

...However, whatever these images may be, they generally reflect a sense of continuity...

...The Communists appear to be in only a slightly better position than other governments in trying to keep track of devious deals in the Overseas Chinese communities of Southeast Asia...

...Communist China, on the other hand, has demonstrated by the vigor of its actions not only its ambitions in Southeast Asia, but also its appreciation of the fact that if others are to be influenced and impressed, policies are necessary...

...It is perhaps typical of the popular American approach to foreign policy that we ignore or minimize our advantages and our strengths, and thus we tend to underrate the significance of the only industrial power that now exists in Asia or that will exist in our generation: Japan...

...In Malaya, the bold way in which the Chinese Communists went about coupling financial credit with political demands on the Chinese businessman led the Federation Government to pass laws that will force the Bank of China to cease operating in the country...

...While Americans tend to be shocked at the terrible human costs of change in China...

...It ought to be possible, however, to conceive realistically of our assisting Japan and India to play active roles in Southeast Asia and thus to neutralize the aggressive foreign policies of Communist China...

...Even more important, there is some question as to whether the tactic has generally worked to the benefit of the Communists or whether Chinese businessmen have been in fact taking advantage of the Communists by accepting credits with no intention of ever repaying...

...In addition, however, the more educated Southeast Asians also saw the Chinese acting in Tibet as a powerful and fierce government...

...The sum effect of the conduct of the members of the Chinese Communist missions is to emphasize for all to see the all-important fact that they, as Communists, are different from others...

...Possibly because of the very strength of their historical memories of the Chinese, the Southeast Asians seem to have shown little surprise or amazement at recent changes in China...

...Among the more reflective Southeast Asians, China has become an impressive and dangerous power...

...The clash will focus on the respective foreign policies of India and China...

...This is possibly the most direct blow that Chinese prestige has received in Southeast Asia...

...For example, not a few Burmese are far from convinced of the desirability of India's realizing its planning goals so long as these goals include self-sufficiency in food stuffs, for they fear that Burma would lose its traditional and still best customer for its rice crop...

...don't you...

...To us, the rest of Asia, which is mainly Southeast Asia, is standing by watching this competition, ready to emulate the ways of the victor...

...On the other hand, many of the leadership elements in Southeast Asia have been extremely sensitive to some changes in Chinese behavior which have hardly entered the American picture of a new China...

...There are, in fact, some Southeast Asians in important positions who in private are not even prepared to wish India well in its five-year plans...

...At the same time, contrary to those who hold we must humanize our diplomacy to meet the popular approach of the Communists, the Chinese Communist embassies are generally cold and aloof institutions, and their people do not mix freely or easily at any level of Southeast Asian society...

...The Chinese are seeking to gain the full psychological advantage at the present moment for developments which will only become realities a few years hence...

...Also...

...The Japanese economy has developed to the point where its comparative advantage lies in producing capital goods and more durable consumer goods: Hong Kong can hardly meet the full Asian demand for light consumer goods, while India has shown disturbingly little initiative in foreign trade...

...The popular reaction, particularly among the Buddhists in Burma and Thailand, was also largely one of expressing sympathy for the victims of evil...

...hence, exaggerated estimates of Chinese development...

...Thus, many Southeast Asians have been able to see China as both a bully and a ruthless suppressor...

...Recently, a strongly anti-Communist Chinese in Rangoon explained to an American scholar that he firmly believes the Burmese Government would find it easier to arrest an American than a Chinese, for the latter’s embassy would use all its influence to protect him, while the American Government would hesitate for fear of offending a country whose friendship it is seeking...

...In contrast to a rather negative view of India, the dominant image of China among Southeast Asians seems to be somewhat more positive, and China as a country tends to be held in considerably more respect...

...Thus, behind the comical and the bizarre there is that unshakable fear which always arises when it is realized that the behavior of someone with power is not guided by the customary and familiar rules of logic...

...Southeast Asians are therefore not surprised or impressed by the use of coercion in China...

...There has thus been an element of bluff in China's attempt to impress the countries of Southeast Asia with its new-found economic strength...

...The lasting repercussion of Tibet has been the recognition that China is a dangerous country, one that must be feared...

...In seeking to separate bluff from reality...

...Peking also appears to have overplayed its hand in the trade offensive which it initiated last summer but which collapsed by late fall...

...These are two very important qualifications, and it is by no means certain that either one will be realized...

...Simultaneously, the Chinese have been "jabbing," "poking" and "pinching...