NATO and the Atom

...But is it really true that the two sides have nothing in common...

...Because of America's refusal to share her discoveries, Britain has already spent several hundred million pounds in order to acquire knowledge which was already available inside the alliance...

...German scientists are working equally hard in the same field, although under much less pressure for immediate results: in consequence, they may make a technological breakthrough which will in time put them level with the giants...

...Yet Britain is no more ready than America to share her atomic weapons with her allies—and her allies trust her even less than they trust the U.S...

...As a result, NATO has become one of the queerest military coalitions in history, for its decisive weapons remain the jealous monopoly of the member-state which is geographically most remote from the likeliest area of conflict...

...The Russians will undoubtedly argue for a machinery of control which the Americans consider inadequate...

...On the other hand, thermonuclear striking power, though it is probably an effective deterrent against deliberate and direct attack on the country which possesses it, is so suicidal in its consequences if used that it is practically worthless for the defense of allies...

...But the major difficulty will be to persuade America's allies to forego the development of their own atomic weapons in the interests of world peace...

...On the contrary, they share with the uncommitted peoples an absolute interest in avoiding an all-out thermonuclear war...

...And, though a compromise seems now to have been suggested at the official level, it involves such painful concessions for both sides that no one has yet dared to publish it...

...the possibility of such a war will increase steadily with each addition to the number of governments which can explode an atomic weapon...

...The types of control needed to verify such a cut-off in weapons production are at present so unacceptable to both Washington and Moscow that this was tantamount to an unconditional veto of test suspension...

...Later events make it possible that those who ordered the bombing of Sakiet may yet have direct responsibility for French policy as a whole It is difficult to conceive any practical escape from the alliance's nuclear dilemma so long as the cold war is envisaged as an all-out struggle between two camps which have no overriding interests in common...

...The need to have control stations in Communist China will present Washington with some painful decisions...

...These common interests have already begun to influence their conduct...

...The Western alliance has as yet made no serious attempt to develop a strategy for limited atomic war which would give reasonable hope of preventing the first tactical nuclear explosion from triggering off the final holocaust...

...But the extraordinary fact is now emerging that the atom will split the Western alliance unless the alliance as a whole can reach at least a limited agreement on cooperation with Russia...

...The first of these conditions may be much easier to obtain than the second, since unilateral troop reductions on both sides of the Iron Curtain may leave Russia and NATO roughly equal by the end of this year...

...It is, in fact, the ideal protection for a neutral country: That is why Sweden is already advancing as fast as possible toward the production of her own atomic weapons, although shortage of plutonium and public fear of the hydrogen bomb have so far prevented the Swedish Government from taking a formal decision in this sense...

...Nasser's arms deal with Khrushchev set the obvious precedent...

...Government to try to stem the tide by handing over some of its small-yield atomic weapons to allies who would agree to minimal controls...

...Of course, there are immense difficulties ahead...

...Only four years after promising to keep four divisions on the Continent till the end of the century, Britain has decided to reduce her Rhine Army to a maximum of three brigades...

...Nevertheless, it looks as if America and Russia are now much more concerned to stop nuclear tests than they were last year...

...itself...

...This new trend in defense thinking creates tremendous problems for the alliance as a whole...

...In my view, they can reasonably put forward two conditions for test suspension: on the one hand, a balanced limitation of both nuclear and conventional forces in the broadest possible zone on both sides of the Iron Curtain, and, on the other hand, the distribution of some small-yield atomic weapons by America to those of her European allies who want them within the framework of a collective defense strategy...

...On the other hand, America's allies cannot be expected to agree to forego their own atomic weapons so long as Russia retains her military preponderance in Europe and America remains the sole nuclear power in the Western alliance...

...Last year, Britain and France made an agreement on test suspension dependent on agreement by America and Russia to cease further production of atomic weapons they had already tested...

...The danger of a Gaullist France seeking from Moscow what Washington will not concede shows that this is a problem of nationalism in which Communist sympathies play little part...

...Dulles has thrown his weight against Strauss in Washington, and Khrushchev has agreed to a technical study of the problems of controlling a test suspension...

...Washington and Moscow have a further common interest which is not shared by their respective allies in freezing the balance of nuclear power at a stage which leaves them as the major weights in the balance...

...So it is inevitable that the other European countries will attempt to follow Britain's lead in acquiring some atomic weapons for themselves as soon as they have the knowledge and resources to do so...

...Yet the Western alliance is in danger of disintegration because all its members privately believe that atomic weapons pose problems even more important than the cold war...

...In the mood of feverish chauvinism which now grips all France, there is little doubt that she will sacrifice a great deal to join the nuclear club—even if it means finding $21 million for a separation plant which will make her independent of America in fissile material...

...A year ago, Harold Stassen and Valerian Zorin were edging toward agreement on suspending nuclear tests until Dulles stepped in to exercise a veto on behalf of Britain, France and Admiral Lewis Strauss...

...With this trend already so far advanced, it was only common sense for the U.S...

...to commit suicide on their behalf...

...Atomic fission and fusion now have their meaning in diplomacy as well as physics...

...The weapons problem is also poisoning America's relations with her allies on the development of atomic energy for peaceful purposes...

...France is another problem, on which prediction is now impossible...

...Indeed, it has already committed itself in principle to giving its European allies at least some small-yield atomic weapons...

...France already possesses enough plutonium to make a few hydrogen bombs, and may be in a position to carry out her first test explosion this year...

...On the one hand, the Western European allies cannot build nuclear weapons for themselves without practically ceasing to contribute to the collective defense effort...

...But although Secretary Dulles has argued the case for such a step more frankly than any other Western statesmen, the Joint Congressional Committee on Atomic Energy has made it clear that there is no chance at present of securing the necessary amendments to the Mc-Mahon Act...

...For America cannot indefinitely impose restrictions on her allies so long as they are free to go elsewhere...

...Now that the time has come to apply this knowledge to the production of a variety of atomic weapons, the cost of duplicating the American stockpile, on however small a scale, is compelling Britain to default on her obligations to NATO...

...The main reason for this sudden switch in Britain's defense policy is the fear that America's thermonuclear retaliation can no longer be considered automatic now that Russia has demonstrated her power to hit back in kind against the population of the U.S...

...Recent negotiations between the U.S...

...and Euratom almost broke down because America insisted on the unilateral right of inspection in Europe's atomic plants...

...Recent shifts in America's own defense policy have appeared to justify these fears...

...The establishment of general arms limitations for most of Europe would remove what little public pressure exists at present, in Britain and Germany at any rate, for the possession of atomic weapons...

...There is also the fear that America's strategic stake in Europe will dwindle rapidly as she acquires the power to strike at Russia from submarines or bases in the U.S...

...There is no doubt that the Eisenhower Administration has come to realize the dangers of trying to preserve this monopoly in its present form...

...Thus, for example, the United States will not trust its allies with knowledge that its enemies already possess...

...By Denis Healey NATO AND THE ATOM Western alliance threatened as small powers get nuclear weapons London In most respects Western policy still seems to be based on the assumption that the cold war must remain indefinitely the most important factor in world politics...

...The easiest way of preventing fourth countries from producing their own nuclear weapons is to prevent test explosions...

...The bombing of Sakiet was even more direct a warning than the Suez adventure...

...And some of America's allies have given recent proof that they may use weapons she provides for purposes directly contrary to her own...

...But Congress's reluctance to permit this also has solid grounds...

...And, if the first condition is achieved, the second may appear less urgent...