New Chance for Democracy in Argentina
ALEXANDER, ROBERT J.
new chance for argentine democracy Inaugural of President Frondhi launches first democratic regime since 1930 By Robert J. Alexander On May 1, Arturo Frondizi will be inaugurated as President of...
...Still, some fear that his will be a Peronist or Communist regime...
...With the fall of Peron, Frondizi set out to win over as many of the dictator's former followers as possible: He severely criticized the Provisional Government's intervention in the trade unions, which deprived them of elected leadership for a year-and-a-half...
...He knows what he believes and what he wants to achieve...
...they did miserably in the election, polling less votes for their Congressional candidates than they received in last year's constituent assembly balloting...
...Many of those who might have been influenced by them if someone like Frondizi were not in the field have not, in fact, fallen under their spell...
...But it seems highly unlikely that they will have any important role in the Frondizi Government, which will be an administration of Intransigent Radicals...
...He objected to the Government's persecution of Peronist trade union leaders merely because they had been labor leaders during the dictatorship...
...These fall into two categories: decapitalization of the economy, and a strongly unfavorable balance of trade...
...There are two fundamental conditions for friendly relations between the Frondizi Government and the U.S...
...Secondly, Washington must be willing to help the Argentines meet some of their most pressing economic problems, without engaging in polite blackmail...
...Each of these groups supported him for its own reasons, but the victorious candidate seems to have made no private commitments to any of them...
...The U.S...
...If democracy is stabilized there, it will help fortify democratic trends throughout the region...
...new chance for argentine democracy Inaugural of President Frondhi launches first democratic regime since 1930 By Robert J. Alexander On May 1, Arturo Frondizi will be inaugurated as President of Argentina...
...They will undoubtedly keep a sharp eye on Frondizi, however, and if he is not able to resolve many of the problems facing him they may well topple him...
...Industrialization was spurred, while agriculture decayed...
...Frondizi will have trouble of a different kind from the military...
...Railroad equipment is out of date, and much of it is delapidated...
...Argentina moved into the vanguard...
...It is essential for the future of democracy in the hemisphere that the administration of Arturo Frondizi be a success...
...It is essential in Latin America, and particularly in Argentina, to differentiate between those who merely are not ecstatic about the United States, and those who are really Communists...
...If he had won by a margin of 50,000 to 100,000 votes, as seemed likely before Peron's endorsement, the Provisional Government might not have turned the Presidency over to him, in spite of its promise to honor the results of the election...
...The last democratically elected Argentine President, Hipolito Irigoyen, was overthrown by a military coup d'etat in September 1930...
...There is nothing which will do more to undermine relations with Argentina than a patronizing attitude in Washington...
...Frondizi wants friendly relations with the U.S., but this attitude must be reciprocated...
...For a year or two the military probably will not dare to overthrow a constitutional regime elected with the majority which Frondizi received...
...He is an extremely frank nationalist who is suspicious of U.S...
...I am convinced that, as soon as the Peronists are free to form their own party, several will appear, each claiming to be the only -genuine" one...
...Frondizi and his supporters are Argentine nationalists, and their national amour propre must be respected if relations between this country and Argentina are to be friendly...
...Ever-present Argentine nationalism was stirred as never before...
...I think that he is anxious to turn the CGT over to a middle group composed of moderate Peronists and anti-Peronists, and that he is trying to encourage the development of such a group...
...oil companies have a right to concessions everywhere and at all times...
...If Washington attempts to change their minds on this subject through pressure, we may only expect resentment and hostility from President Frondizi and his administration...
...He seized the banner of nationalism...
...He has said that such an amnesty will be the job of Congress, since under a constitutional regime he cannot order it himself, and that it will be up to Congress to decide its terms...
...He will have equally serious political difficulties with the armed forces...
...To do so, he must undermine Peron politically...
...The military men demanded three of these ministries...
...They have little force in the labor movement...
...The situation is complicated by the fact that the Peronists still constitute a majority of the labor movement...
...It is generally agreed that the petroleum problem is going to be the first major economic issue that Frondizi will have to cope with...
...Just as serious is the existing trade deficit of several hundred million dollars a year, about equal to what the country spends on petroleum imports...
...Nor is there any ground for fear of a pro-Communist bias on Fron-dizi's part...
...Frondizi's critics feel that he went too far in trying to win Peronist support...
...On February 24, 1946 he was elected President, a position he held for a decade...
...From being one of the most backward Latin American nations in labor legislation and social security...
...newsman who claims that Alejandro Gomez, Frondizi's Vice President, is a Communist...
...He will do all he can to convince the workers that Peron is not their only "savior," and that they can get as much or more from a democratic regime—and have freedom besides...
...Frondizi won with the support of his own Union Civica Radical Intran-sigente party, of the Peronists, of the Communists, and of right-wing Catholic nationalist elements...
...This is a difficult problem...
...With Peron's help, the labor movement grew from 300,000 members to approximately 2.5 million and became a decisive force in the nation's politics...
...The Frondizi regime will be interested in stimulating the agricultural sector as a source of foreign exchange...
...First, the United States must treat Argentina as a juridical equal...
...True, he has among his personal aides and advisers a handful of people with Communist backgrounds...
...One of the most absurd charges of Communist influence is that made by a U.S...
...This should have been done a long time ago, since the one thing keeping the Peronists united has been illegality...
...Frondizi has advisers in both camps...
...He is a longtime supporter of the Government oil firm, YPF, established 30 years ago, and feels that the Argentine oil industry should be under its direction...
...Any non-Peronist government must be careful not to turn over such a politically potent group as the CGT to unregen-erate Peronists...
...He has promised to let the workers themselves decide who is to run the CGT, but he will have to make the decision as to who shall be empowered to call a congress...
...There are two reasons, for this...
...In November 1955, the Government ousted all elected union officials and replaced them with military men...
...The 1853 Constitution, re-established by last year's Constituent Assembly, provides for only eight ministries and declares that Congress shall name them and decide their jurisdictions...
...It is auspicious that Vice President Nixon was sent as chief delegate to Frondizi's inauguration, but this gesture in itself is not enough...
...The leaders of the armed forces are used to meddling in politics...
...During the succeeding 13 years the country was run by the Conservative party, which maintained control by a combination of force and fraud, culminating in another Army coup on June 4, 1943...
...First, the Peronists have shown more ability to resist Communist blandishments, and to distinguish their own doctrine and aspirations from those of the Communists, than I, for one, thought likely...
...The only gainers from this would be the totalitarians of the right and the left...
...Frondizi is faced with a gigantic job in trying to establish Argentine democracy on a firm basis...
...Throughout Peron's rule, Frondizi insisted that the dictator could only be broken by a program which would allow the workers to retain their gains, would give them back control of the trade unions, and would return to the average citizen the benefits of political democracy...
...Most Peronists boycotted the union elections...
...Frondizi and his friends do not believe that U.S...
...The Frondizi regime will undoubtedly seek other credits from both international lending institutions and private suppliers for these capital needs...
...Even many unions now in the hands of anti-Peronists have a Peronist rank and file...
...One of the most striking facts about the present situation in Argentina is the weakness of the Communists...
...The Peron era brought fundamental changes to Argentina...
...Argentina is one of the most influential countries in Latin America...
...This broke up in confusion because of a virtual deadlock between Peronist and anti-Peronist elements...
...will get off on the wrong foot if it demands concessions for U.S...
...The Provisional Government obtained an $85-million loan from the Export-Import Bank for rehabilitation of the railroads, but this was merely a small beginning...
...Secondly, the rise of Frondizi, with a popular and nationalist social program, short-circuited the Communists' growth...
...He knows that the Communists were among his supporters on February 23, but he also knows that he has little to gain by encouraging them or giving them prestige...
...He objected to modifications of labor legislation, which he considered detrimental to the workers...
...There will have to be a major effort to recapitalize the economy...
...The same is true of many of the public utilities, which in any case have not kept up with the development of the rest of the economy...
...Argentine agriculture lacks sufficient implements and machines, and many of those now in use are antiquated...
...He recognized that Peron had won the workers' support because he had given them material advantages and a feeling of importance and destiny which they had never before possessed, even though he had destroyed the independence of the trade unions...
...There is talk of trying to shift production in some areas from wheat to corn and grains for cattle feed...
...He will have a major political problem in his relations with the Peronists...
...He is expected to win out on this question...
...Frondizi's success in handling the rank and file Peronists and the military will undoubtedly depend on his ability to deal with the country's economic problems...
...2. He will legalize a Peronist party, though probably not with that name...
...But the key to his success or failure will undoubtedly be his ability to come to grips with almost insuperable economic problems...
...During the last three decades, the capital plant of Argentina has been wearing out...
...Frondizi probably would have won the February 23 election without Peron's endorsement, but he certainly would not have won by such an overwhelming majority—4.1 million votes against 2.5 million for his nearest rival, Ricardo Balbin...
...This could only lead to instability, unrest and dictatorship in other Latin American nations, and an intensification of the already potent anti-Yankeeism existing in Latin America...
...3. He will decide who is to call a trade-union congress...
...Once it is passed, it will be up to the courts to decide whether or not to continue with trials of Peronists who have been charged with malfeasance...
...His induction will end two-and-a-half years of provisional rule, and will restore democratic government to this key South American republic for the first time in almost 28 years...
...Frondizi is no innocent...
...By last July, elections had been held in virtually all unions, and a congress was called for August to re-establish the General Confederation of Labor (CGT...
...Frondizi is determined to "send the soldiers back to the barracks...
...One of the few politicians opposed to Peron who saw the full significance of the changes taking place was Fron-dizi...
...motives in Latin America and perhaps has an exaggerated idea of Argentina's importance in the world, but he is certainly not a Communist...
...A strong element did not want to turn over power to Frondizi...
...A further attempt to hold the congress in March failed, when many anti-Peronist and all Peronist unions refused to send delegates because eight of the largest unions had once again been "intervened" by the Government, and therefore could not participate...
...In this, he has virtually the unanimous support of the civilians...
...Frondizi, on the other hand, proposed one Ministry of Defense, with a civilian minister, and under-secretaries of the Army, Navy and Air Force...
...Wheat is generally in over-supply in world markets, while many Argentines feel that their markets for corn and cattle could be considerably expanded...
...However, he has suggested that the Government might be able to accept the "services" of foreign companies in looking for oil and getting it out of the ground...
...The morality of these negotiations is open to criticism, though politically they paid off...
...They particularly criticize his negotiations with exiled Peronist leaders and, indirectly, with Peron himself...
...It transferred power from the rural landlords, who were the backbone of the Conservative party, to the cities, where Peron was supported by an uneasy alliance of industrial workers and military men...
...Within two years, Juan Peron proved himself the most able of the military men ruling the country...
...His huge vote removed any such possibility...
...As for the Peronists, Frondizi is well aware of the need for converting the two million votes "borrowed" from Peron into real Frondizi votes in the future...
...oil interests in return for aid...
...If Frondizi fails, an even more demagogic and unscrupulous regime than Peron's may be expected to succeed him...
...It seems likely that Frondizi will take three measures affecting the Peronists: 1. He will propose a general amnesty for all political offenders...
...He is already involved in a major crisis with the military leaders...
...He condemned the Government's program of "free enterprise,' which led to a wage freeze and steadily rising prices...
...Frondizi's future will undoubtedly depend to some degree on the attitude of the United States Government...
...Others have suggested that payment for these services might be in the form of oil, though Frondizi has not yet committed himself on this...
...There is a left-wing in the Intransigent Radical party, but it has little sympathy for the Communists, who have been around too long and have changed face too often to be trusted even by left-wing Radicals...
Vol. 41 • May 1958 • No. 18
