Election Year in Germany
ALLEMANN, F. R.
Election Year in Germany The maneuvering has already begun for next September's Parliamentary elections, a contest between a respected leader and a fast-gaining opposition party Bonn Election...
...He wants to help decide the composition not only of Parliament but of the Government, and therefore turns to those parties which seem in a position to stamp the Government with their own convictions...
...Allemann lives in Bonn and is intimately acquainted with its leading political personalities...
...The tone of the campaign, as a result, is based less on stressing the appealing qualities of the party's own program than on arousing revulsion against the opposition...
...Socialization programs today find few takers...
...In other words, whereas nearly half the potential voters prefer the Socialists, only a quarter express themselves decisively against the Chancellor who has been their main target...
...The CDU's election strategy in any case will be to paint the dangers of an SPD victory in the gloomiest possible colors...
...they are regarded as an uncertain element whose behavior can never be counted on...
...One after another of the old specialized parties was put out of the running...
...A regular contributor to Der Monat in Berlin and the author of several books on postwar Germany, Mr...
...A vote is no longer cast out of faith in one party's program, but out of aversion to the opposing party...
...Nothing demonstrates more clearly the extent to which old-time "class consciousness" had disappeared...
...Others urged the party to emerge from its "negative" sterility and, instead, become a junior partner in a "great coalition" with the CDU...
...And the largest of the small parties, the Free Democrats, have been weakened by the defection of the pro-Government conservative wing and by leadership crises...
...At present, the German people's foreign-policy attitude can perhaps best be described as one of watchful waiting...
...How it will express itself at the polls may depend more on international events in the next few months than on campaign propaganda...
...The conservative Protestant German party, which is essentially restricted to North Germany, is today no more than an appendage of the CDU...
...IN the first seven years of the West German Republic, Adenauer's CDU has steadily—except for the short period between the fall of 1950 and the spring of 1952—maintained an appreciable lead over the Social Democrats...
...Prices have been rising slowly but steadily, and some observers feel the cost-of-living index will ultimately decide the election: If the Government can halt the price rise (especially in food) without damaging the fabric of prosperity, then it can win...
...it is probably the most noteworthy feature of West Germany's political development, a startling break with the entire German political tradition...
...In the first Bundestag election in August 1949, the SPD and CDU gathered only 60 per cent of the votes...
...Their oscillation between government responsibility and opposition seems to have harmed them more than helped them...
...The latest poll by the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research, released in December, gives the SPD 45 per cent, while the CDU has sunk to 39 per cent...
...there is every indication that the number will be further reduced this September...
...The West German experience has been quite the opposite...
...only 26 per cent rejected that policy outright...
...The CDU also had, earlier than the SPD, moved to create a "people's party" which would unite a multitude of varying groups...
...If they find the Government generally to their liking, they turn to the party which holds governmental responsibility...
...if the Social Democrats create the impression —which they have been skilfully avoiding of late—that they hope to overturn the whole structure of German policy, they will fall right into the trap which their opponents are setting...
...Previously, it had been thought that proportional representation always worked against the emergence of large, close-knit parties and the formation of clear majorities...
...Thus the issue in next September's Bundestag elections will be nothing less than the replacement of the present ruling group in Bonn...
...Not only did the main currents of political ideology—conservative, liberal, socialist—flow into the most varied little channels, but even religious and regional special interests formed their own party groupings...
...According to all indications, the various parties' struggle for the voters' favor, which has already begun, will be not only the bitterest and most ill-tempered but also the most boring in postwar German history...
...An unmistakable Government party and un unmistakable Opposition party strikes them as the most sensible arrangement...
...The "bourgeois bloc," which had given Chancellor Konrad Adenauer a secure majority since 1949, fell apart early in 1956...
...Even the controversial "5-per-cent clause" is not enough to explain the paradox...
...The reason obviously lies much deeper...
...The Christian Democrats have a reason to think that it might be...
...In 12 of 21 election districts where the active workers (excluding pensioners, etc...
...The CDU must wage a "tough" election campaign in order to hold and regain the allegiance of floating, politically undecided voters...
...Yet, anyone who listens to Germans discussing politics soon realizes that this prestige rests more on past achievements than on confidence in the CDU's future...
...The demand for more initiative and action, particularly on the question of reunification, is universal...
...For the first time, the SPD feels strong enough to fight not merely for a Parliamentary plurality but for power, to banish the Christian Democratic Union to the opposition and put an end to the "Adenauer era...
...This was not only due to the Chancellor, himself, who quickly learned to stamp German politics in his own mold and—at least at his peak—knew how to satisfy the need for authority...
...Both groups assumed that the conservative (some said restorationist) temper of postwar Germany offered no prospect for a radical change in the political balance...
...The West German is rebelling not against the economic system itself but against what seems (from the pocketbook standpoint) a malfunctioning of the system...
...The result, however, is that the unaffiliated voter is essentially swayed by negative rather than positive considerations...
...The youth, above all, have lost interest in political nuances and ideologies...
...The "Adenauer myth," prematurely buried, is displaying amazing vitality, which the CDU will unquestionably attempt to turn to its advantage...
...In the 1953 elections, which gave the CDU 45 per cent of the votes and a narrow absolute majority in the Bundestag, it owed a substantial part of its success to "proletarian" support...
...The CDU notes that, at the beginning of 1953, there was hardly any sign of the Christian Democratic tide which carried it to smashing victory in September...
...In postwar Germany, however, precisely the opposite occurred...
...The pendulum has swung back quickly...
...if not, the SPD will be the favorite...
...This stipulation does explain why minor groups have so much difficulty (the All-German Bloc is the only new party which has thus far overcome this hurdle), but it does not explain why relatively important, established parties find it so difficult to hold their followers...
...An extremely ruthless campaign is probably unavoidable...
...A great many people, for varied reasons, would welcome a change in Bonn...
...Brighter prospects for the SPD are offered in the realm of economic policy...
...This introduces a major element of uncertainty which may bring great surprises to both sides...
...West Germany this year seems to be surrendering to just such a state of temporary paralysis, made all the more difficult by ostentatious but meaningless political gestures...
...This concentration process is so strong that even the election law, which favors a multiplicity of political groupings through its system of almost pure proportional representation, is unable to halt it...
...Whereas last summer the two major parties were more or less even (roughly 40 per cent each), the SPD gained spectacularly in November and December...
...they do not forecast its result...
...The voter wants to be certain that his vote will count, instead of being manipulated by party bosses...
...45 per cent of those questioned in December declared that they were "on the whole in agreement with Adenauer's policy...
...The election law excludes all groups from Parliament which have not won 5 per cent of the nationwide vote or else put over three of their candidates in direct election...
...In the Weimar years, this trend to constantly finer political shadings was most pronounced among the "bourgeois" parties, until finally the atomized Center was crushed by the Nazi juggernaut...
...On the other hand, the SPD runs the risk of frightening the voters away if it attacks the Adenauer myth too violently...
...In other words, the broadly-based coalition party, with little internal cohesion but held together by strong leadership, took the place of the traditional, more rigidly defined party based on ideology or special interest...
...Can this startling reversal be repeated in 1957...
...The SPD, on the other hand, must be moderate and statesmanlike if it hopes to hold onto its new adherents —particularly those from the middle class...
...And the German Gallups and Ropers report a positively sensational Socialist upswing...
...In other words, if the elections had been held two months ago, the Social Democrats would have emerged as unchallenged victors, occupying roughly the place in the new Bundestag now held by the CDU...
...The trend toward the "Big Two" has thus continued uninterruptedly since the formation of the postwar German state...
...The All-German Bloc, which tried to organize politically the millions of refugees from the East, has seen its voting strength steadily worn away by the continuing economic prosperity...
...the remaining groups vex the overwhelming majority of Germans, since they merely blur the clear picture and sharp line of responsibility...
...Four years later, in September 1953, the total was 74 per cent...
...on the other hand, they seem as hostile as ever to political experimentation...
...splinter parties are left with steadily shrinking room for maneuver...
...The SPD suffered from an inability to throw off the odium of a purely class party, and to move on to new conquests...
...A voter who is determined to prevent a Socialist government at all costs is inclined to vote for the CDU, though he may not be a clerical or an admirer of Adenauer...
...Election Year in Germany The maneuvering has already begun for next September's Parliamentary elections, a contest between a respected leader and a fast-gaining opposition party Bonn Election periods are periods of weakness in a democracy...
...far from exerting an attraction on the middle-class groups, it did not even command a majority of the working class...
...The present German mentality is more cautious than bold, more standpattish than innovation-seeking...
...The German people are weary of Parliamentary maneuvers, coalition intrigues and the claims of groups which aspire to be the "political balance-wheel...
...if not, they turn to the party which most effectively represents the opposition...
...The policy of moderation and "constructive criticism," which the Social Democrats finally adopted after some hesitations, has clearly paid richer dividends than even the party optimists had hoped...
...This may well be true, but a reservation is necessary: Widespread criticism of the "shadowy sides" of the German "economic miracle" does not imply a similarly widespread readiness to take economic risks or make reforms in the social structure...
...The vaster the machinery of government becomes, the more need the people apparently feel for fixing clear responsibilities...
...this is a price that must be paid for free institutions...
...To exploit the uneasiness without jarring the complacency is the Socialists' difficult task if they hope to win power in September...
...In other words, the electorate now casts its ballot for the "lesser evil...
...If he votes Socialist, it is not because he is a Socialist, but because he hopes the SPD will manage the existing system better...
...On the other hand, intangible discontent and desire for a change are obviously growing, despite the Chancellor's popularity...
...A party that hopes to win power now must calm the fearful rather than arouse the hotheads...
...On the left, the Social Democrats at first drew upon the old prewar reservoir of Communist voters (not too substantial after the war) until that was exhausted...
...It is unfortunate when this weakness lasts inordinately long, when—months before the actual campaign starts—concern over the forthcoming election inhibits practical political initiative...
...All in all, there is a great deal of dissatisfaction (with foreign policy, the Army, the economy), but it is a moderate dissatisfaction—uneasiness tempered, so to speak, by complacency...
...Thus, political issues are simplified in a manner reminiscent of Anglo-Saxon political practice: Here are the "ins," there are the "outs...
...Some saw salvation in radicalization of the party, in a return to "pure" Marxist class-struggle thinking, in unconditional opposition to the bourgeois state...
...The CDU by no means appealed only to "bourgeois" business circles but made deep inroads among the workers...
...The latest public-opinion polls (December 1956) show that fully 84 per cent of those questioned favored one of the two major parties...
...By F R. Allemann Fritz Rene Allemann, foreign correspondent for the Zurich Tat, has been frequently referred to as the Walter Lippmann of the German language...
...Even more important, none of the smaller groups has succeeded in becoming a real "third force...
...The SPD appeared doomed to eternal minority status, and hence permanent opposition...
...On the right, meanwhile, the CDU formed a powerful catch-all party, which steadily enriched itself from the most varied sources—Catholic and Protestant, liberal and conservative, trade-union, big-business and middle-class...
...The prestige of the Chancellor remains great, while the Opposition chief, Erich Ollenhauer, scarcely boasts a comparable personal stature...
...Unless all signs deceive, this is as true for foreign as for domestic policy...
...nothing could harm it more than to acquire the odor of radicalism...
...they have thus far been unable to hold on to their adherents, let alone expand...
...Of the ten parties in the first Bundestag, only five remained in the second...
...But there is widespread fear of giving up the Western alliances, which might be the end-result of the Social Democratic scheme for reunification...
...The reasons for this are evident when one considers the shifts in the political balance over the last year...
...comprised more than 50 per cent of the population, the CDU outdistanced the SPD...
...The strange findings of German public-opinion tests can be explained only by a political and psychological ambivalence prevalent in Germany today...
...Many who would not hesitate to rank Adenauer among Germany's great statesmen are fearful of placing the reins of government in his hands for another four years—not because they question his policies, but because they feel that, in his 82nd year, he is too old...
...Under the Empire and particularly under the Weimar Republic, German voters were inclined to split their votes among a multitude of parties...
...In the first three months of 1953, the SPD and CDU were about even, with 34 and 35 per cent respectively...
...The same pollsters who currently give the edge to the Social Democrats have noted a curious phenomenon: Though the SPD has apparently made a mighty leap forward, the temporarily shaken popularity of Chancellor Adenauer has again risen markedly...
...Last fall's state elections— though they must be regarded cautiously as a national barometer— showed almost everywhere a successful SPD offensive...
...The new Bundeswehr, and especially the conscription law, have unquestionably encountered opposition (particularly among the youth...
...But intransigent propaganda against rearmament, particularly if it calls for abolition of the new army, would today, after the Hungarian Revolution, be regarded as irresponsible— even though limitations on German rearmament would clearly be popular...
...This is particularly true because the election campaign already seems to be reducing itself to a two-party duel...
...This assumption appears to have been incorrect...
...A substantial section of the population, which probably will decide the elections, has no crucial objection to Adenauer's policies and yet sympathizes with the Opposition, which is seeking to change those policies and oust their originators...
...These figures provide the background of the election campaign...
...On the other hand, the Social Democrats have been making astonishing progress: Both local elections in most German states and the public-opinion polls show that their influence is now greater than ever before...
...it would have been impossible to bar them any longer from forming a government...
...It lost most of its traditional big-city strongholds (including Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Essen and Stuttgart), and failed to receive even 30 per cent of the votes...
...Both sides—the party now in power and the party energetically trying to depose it—will stop at nothing to win...
...The "European idea" has lost much of the radiance it had in 1953, but that does not mean that German neutrality, in which many sense the danger of a new isolation, would be an effective campaign plank...
...This sort of thing runs counter to the feelings of the voters, who seem to insist on clear, unambiguous political choices...
...A demand for gradual, cautious adaptation of previous policies to new conditions will receive a sympathetic hearing, but a drastic departure from the tried and true will never win a majority of the electorate...
...The German today thinks and acts in politics—for the first time in his modern history—not as a dogmatist but as an empiricist...
...This is a fascinating and, for the Social Democrats, somewhat disquieting phenomenon, which suggests a kind of schizophrenia among a large part of the electorate...
...On the other hand, a voter who feels that it is "time for a change," or who rejects Adenauer for one reason or another, will take a chance with the SPD, though he is not "Marxist" or even socialist in his thinking...
...by election day, the SPD had dropped to 29 per cent while the CDU had climbed to more than 45...
...That is a major handicap for the CDU— particularly since there is no "Crown Prince" at hand to assume the succession...
Vol. 40 • February 1957 • No. 5
