What Can Be Done About Syria?
Laqueur, Walter
West's range of action is limited What Can Be Done About Syria? By Walter Z. Laqueur Washington To those who had belittled the importance of Middle Eastern Communism and viewed the Eisenhower...
...they want to "return to Europe," as man) of the Hungarian rebels expressed it last fall...
...A great deal depends on Egypt, which has moved less rapidly than Syria along the road to Moscow...
...The West must now make it unmistakably clear that it refuses to regard "positive neutralism" as in any way comparable to the bona fide neutralism of Asian countries like India, Burma and Ceylon, but rather as an insidious form of hostility...
...Unfortunately, the West has clung to a distorted view of both the Middle East and Eastern Europe for many years...
...Obviously, the Soviet aim is to bring not just Syria but the entire Arab East into its camp...
...This is very important, for hostility under the cloak of neutralism, which has wide appeal in the Arab world and throughout Asia, is more dangerous than open enmity...
...Under the circumstances, our best policy as of now may be to let matters take their course—though without, of course, relaxing our vigilance —in the hope that, surrounded by hostile neighbors, Syrian Communism will prove incapable of survival...
...In Syria and the Middle East generally, the Communists have sought to progress gradually instead of rushing headlong...
...It is contended that Syria will now be converted into a Soviet base for penetration of the Middle East, but it has actually been just such a base for many months...
...In the Middle East, being an Arab nationalist does not bar one from being a Communist as well...
...Its leader, Khaled Bakdash...
...The main danger right now is not that a semi-Communist government will be installed in Syria...
...If things continue as they have, a "Syrian situation" will undoubtedly develop in Egypt within two or three years...
...The appointment of pro-Soviet Afif Bizri as Chief of Staff of the Syrian Army was, however, merely the culmination of a long process...
...The Syrian Communist party, moreover, is probably the most cautious of any in the world...
...To be sure, Syria is unlikely to fall under complete Moscow control for the simple reason that it lacks a common frontier with the Soviet Union and there are no Soviet troops or police on its soil...
...President Eisenhower has already raised this idea at a press conference...
...It is most unlikely that Moscow wanted dramatic events in Damascus just now...
...Moscow had much to lose and little to gain from the spectacular coup in Damascus...
...Only a few years ago, the Lebanese CP was stronger than Syria's...
...At the moment, the Western powers' range of action in Syria is very limited...
...The assumption was that the satellites were essentially "Communistic" and had to be written off...
...By Walter Z. Laqueur Washington To those who had belittled the importance of Middle Eastern Communism and viewed the Eisenhower Doctrine as an effective barrier to Soviet influence in that area, recent events in Syria were bound to seem a shocking catastrophe...
...has declared repeatedly in Parliament that "Syria is nationalist, not Communist, and will remain so...
...In the Middle East, on the other hand, there is strong pro-Soviet and pro-Communist sentiment...
...Besides, strictly speaking there are no Communists in Syria—haven't the CP leaders stated emphatically that they are Arab nationalists, not Communists...
...Indeed, it is scarcely accurate to speak of Soviet "penetration," for the Russians moved into Syria (and Egypt) by invitation...
...The new regime enjoys a considerable measure of popular support, and there is little likelihood of its overthrow from within in the near future...
...There is, of course, the danger that Syria will engage in military aggression against its neighbors—not so much against Israel as against "unfriendly" Arab states...
...It may well be that neither Moscow nor the Syrian Communists, but the fellow-traveling Army command, forced the issue in Damascus...
...The Soviet leaders, of course, continue to think in terms of world domination, but their anti-Westernism lacks the special emotional quality found in the Middle East...
...It is too early to tell whether the turn of events in Damascus has aroused alarm in Cairo, or whether Nasser and his friends, with only one ally in the Arab world, will continue along the fatal road they have been following...
...But, for all we know, Syrian Communists may not carry party cards...
...Thus...
...If anything, the latest developments are likely to make penetration more difficult...
...And, far from being a catastrophe, the upheaval in Damascus may prove to have a salutary effect both in the Middle East and in the West...
...Of late, however, its influence has declined sharply as the non-Communist parties became alarmed at the trend of events in neighboring Syria...
...From the West's point of view, the main danger is that the new Syrian regime will be mistakenly regarded as "national Communist" rather than pro-Soviet...
...Nevertheless, the Syrian crisis will have its most direct and important repercussions in the Middle East, where the countries outside the Cairo-Damascus axis are becoming increasingly wary of the new brand of "Arab nationalism" evolving under the Soviet aegis...
...In any case, the Communists may come to regret what has happened...
...This might have a healthy impact in those Asian nations which have hitherto taken the Syrian and Egyptian slogans at face value...
...The "people's democracies" of Europe are very reluctant satellites...
...A major pitfall is the temptation to write the Syrian situation off as harmless: Perhaps the Damascus colonels aren't really card-carrying Communists after all...
...if anything, it is anti-Soviet...
...Indeed, from the Soviet point of view, there has been no material change in the situation...
...However, Middle Eastern Communism or crypto-Communism differs in one essential respect from Eastern European "national Communism.' The latter is not emotionally anti-Western...
...One welcome result of the Syrian overturn is that the concept of "positive neutralism," so long trumpeted by Damascus and Cairo, has been utterly discredited...
...The goal of Arab nationalism—unification of all the Arab countries in some sort of federation—can be attained as well in a Communist framework as in any other...
...This is just what has been happening in Lebanon...
...The Syrians and—to a lesser extent—the Egyptians are for various historical reasons bitterly anti-Western, and large sections of their intelligentsia are firmly convinced that salvation lies in some form of Communist rule, closely allied with the Soviet Union...
...However, Moscow unquestionably fears a local outbreak which might spread into a general conflict, and it would surely exert whatever influence it has in Damascus toward moderation...
...Neither is there much that Syria's neighbors can do...
...In recent years, Syrian and Egyptian propaganda have actually been more virulently anti-Western than anything emanating from Moscow, let alone Eastern Europe...
...If the process moves too rapidly in one country, the non-Communist forces elsewhere in the area— currently weak, disunited and unaware of the extent of Communist penetration—are apt to rally to meet the danger...
...It is that the real significance of these events will be played down and the West will not learn its lesson even at this late hour...
...However, Bizri and his colleagues will probably be able to accomplish little in the way of social progress, and gradual disillusionment may well set in among the masses...
...In fact, the Eastern European countries have continued to regard themselves, by cultural heritage, as part of the West...
...Thev arc already trying to move cautiously and minimize the significance of the Bizri coup...
...As a matter of fact, they are Arab nationalists, but then Mao Tse-tung is a Chinese nationalist and Khrushchev, in his own way, is a Russian nationalist...
...only the Soviet Army maintains Moscow's grip, and free elections would unquestionably result in a large anti-Soviet majority...
...Syria, by contrast, is a voluntary and enthusiastic satellite which has entered the Soviet sphere of influence of its own accord...
...Time was working for the Soviets anyway, and within another year or two an "Indonesian" situation would have developed, with the Communists steadily approaching a majority or near-majority by legal means...
...while Arab nations like Syria and Egypt were really neutral, unattached to any power bloc, and could therefore be won over...
Vol. 40 • September 1957 • No. 36
