Another Arab-Israeli War in '57?
Laqueur, Walter
Since the UN has virtually sanctioned continued Fedayeen murder missions, a new flare-up involving the U.S. can be expected to develop by next summer or fall ISRAEL AND THE ARABS: ANOTHER WAR IN...
...There is only one way to avoid the inevitable in this case: by admitting Israel to the North Atlantic Treaty-Organization...
...However, it does nothing to counter the chief danger to the region, which is Communist subversion...
...In time, Western relations with these countries may improve, but it is doubtful that this will occur before they experience a prolonged period of Soviet domination at first hand...
...Some say that after much hue and cry over Israel's inclusion in NATO the Arabs would gradually resign themselves to the idea that Israel i-here to stay, but they don't have a "realistic" understanding of the situation...
...By next summer or fall, there will be another flare-up in the area which will renew the danger of a world war...
...Thus, the idea that economic self-interest plays a major part in the motivations of the Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian Governments is completely unrealistic...
...The new U.S...
...At best, they are based on deceptive appearances— such as the fact that Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser's Egyptian propaganda machine has temporarily suspended its anti-U.S...
...By W. Z. Laqueur London In addition to its new policy now before Congress, the Eisenhower Administration is trying to accomplish a virtually unprecedented diplomatic feat in the Middle East...
...can be expected to develop by next summer or fall ISRAEL AND THE ARABS: ANOTHER WAR IN 1957...
...The belief that this can be done is apparently based on the following assumptions: 1. With a UN police force on hand to separate the Arabs and Israelis, existing tension and hatred will gradually die down and in the calmer climate it will be impossible for either of them to frustrate a UN solution of their conflict...
...they want to get rid of the Soviet Army and Soviet military advisers...
...But these were brought about by an exceptional combination of circumstances which cannot last long...
...Communism, in contrast to democratic socialism, has little if any attraction for them...
...Abdel Hamid Serraj or Jordan's General Ali Abu Nuwar...
...Most Arab countries, on the other hand, are basically anti-Western...
...The West, therefore, has no common ties with countries like Egypt, Syria and Jordan, even though their internal setup may still be far from Communist or socialist...
...It would be mistaken to believe that as a result of the solution of this conflict there would be peace in the Middle East...
...The majority of Russia's European satellites are probably pro-Western and anti-Soviet at heart...
...After all, Arab feelings must be taken into account...
...People's democracies" are already developing in Syria and Jordan, where most key political and military positions have been taken over by pro-Soviet elements...
...What is more, it appears that there will be no shift in policy to meet this threat until some shattering blows have been dealt to the remaining illusions about Arab nationalism...
...Communism is extremely attractive to the majority of the Arab people, who are not at all opposed to having Soviet arms, advisers and "volunteers" in their midst...
...Moreover, the massacre in Hungary did not have the slightest effect on the Arab world...
...Egypt and Syria will continue their anti-Western offensive and will use the oil pipelines and the Suez Canal in an ever growing degree for blackmail purposes...
...Actually, almost the exact opposite is the case...
...Hence, we do well to prepare ourselves for a new war in the Mideast in 1057...
...in which the United States will become involved—unless it is willing to accept Soviet domination of this area by subversion...
...The chief reason for the West's inability to cope with the area is its mistaken view—particularly strong in Washington—that Arab nationalism is just another movement, somewhat radical perhaps, but in any case non-Marxist or non-Communist and therefore a potential ally...
...Hans E. Tiitsch, Middle East correspondent for the Neue Ziircher Zeitung, reaches a similar conclusion: "The problems which the powers face in the Middle East cannot be solved in Palestine alone...
...It is attempting to settle the area's internal problems by the sole use of the moral force of world opinion that can be marshalled in the United Nations...
...He came to power and has risen to his present heights as the protagonist of an expansionist foreign policy...
...This is not the result of any specific incident but a matter of basic principle...
...3. Economic self-interest will have a considerable impact on Arab policy and lead to greater cooperation with the West...
...The UN will continue to serve as a protective screen for Nasser's military buildup, but it will be as ineffective as it was last October in preventing a new Mideast war...
...Similarly, the belief that a U.S.-Indian alliance based on moral force and working through the UN can prevent the satellization of these countries betrays almost unbelievable naivete as far as the Middle East is concerned...
...Considering the prevailing attitude in Western capitals, however, I must confess that this is an absurd suggestion...
...initiative is welcome and, if implemented, should go far toward removing the danger of direct Soviet military intervention...
...any shift to a lesser role could be fatal for him...
...In these circumstances, the following will probably occur in the Middle East during 1957: • The Soviet Union will step up its infiltration and continue its satellization of Syria, Jordan and Egypt...
...We can't risk losing our hard-won prestige with Colonel Nasser, Syria's Col...
...This offensive, which does not require the use of Soviet troops or military excursions by satellites, will certainly continue with undiminished strength, because Moscow now considers the Middle East the most promising sphere of expansion...
...This would guarantee its frontiers and insure the security of its Arab neighbors...
...As Jean Lacouture, a French "progressive" observer who is not unsympathetic to the Nasser regime, notes in a highly illuminating book about Egypt published two weeks ago in Paris: "All newspapers and magazines are in pro-Communist and pro-Soviet hands, and the impact of this indoctrination is undoubtedly stronger than in Eastern Europe...
...In a book published last month in Switzerland, Dr...
...2. After the events in Hungary, the Arab countries will be more wary of becoming satellites through internal subversion or excessive reliance on Soviet aid...
...They consider themselves part of the Western tradition and want to "return to Europe...
...While I do not want to belittle the good will behind these assumptions, it must be emphasized that not one of them is correct...
...Extreme pressure will be exerted on Israel to return the Gaza Strip to Egypt...
...True, the situation is most precarious in Syria and Jordan, where Westerners and Western-educated officials have been purged, but Nasser is moving in the same direction...
...Certainly the Egyptian intelligentsia is fed stronger doses of Socialist realism' and swallows it more readily than the Polish or Hungarian intelligentsia...
...It was immediately after the Geneva Conference, in fact, that Russia launched its great political offensive there...
...Nevertheless, the prospect...
...Consequently, the West must re-examine its policies in the light of the political and social realities of the area...
...Fedayeen (suicide commandos) will continue to murder and harass the Israelis, and Israel will strike back...
...Peaceful coexistence,'' it should be realized by now, never applied to the Middle East so far as the Kremlin was concerned...
...Soon conditions in the Middle East will revert to what they were last September, with one important difference: The West's influence will be weaker than it ever was, and Moscow will be closer to achieving its goal of political domination over the region...
...He can lessen his dependence on Moscow only by giving up his power ambitions, something he is neither willing nor able to do...
...The pro-Western Iraqi GovernSERRAJ: FEELINGS ARE IMPORTANT ment of Premier Nuri as-Said will not be able to withstand the continuing pressure of Nasser-inspired forces and will be replaced by an Egyptian-or Syrian-style anti-Western coalition...
...propaganda blasts...
...for an Arab-Israeli war are exceptionally good in view of the UN's virtual sanctioning of the Arab guerrilla war against Israel and the unlikelihood that Israel will refrain for very long from retaliating in force...
...I have always maintained that the Arab-Israeli conflict is not the main cause of the Middle East crisis...
...Western correspondents reported from Cairo, Damascus and Beirut that audiences cheered lustily when newsreels showed Soviet tank gunners mowing down helpless Hungarian fighters, including women and children...
Vol. 40 • January 1957 • No. 2
