Fallout and Health
BAUER, WALTER C. & FOWLER, JOHN M.
Two scientists summarize the known facts FALLOUT and HEALTH By Walter C. Bauer and John M. Fowler Concern over the hazards to health of past and future nuclear bomb tests has come sharply into...
...Present Levels: The question "How much are we going to accumulate in our bones...
...Atmospheric fallout remains in a band at about the latitude of the blast and is brought down in rain, snow and mist...
...We detect its tell-tale radioactivity in the milk we drink and in the meat we eat, in the bones of animals and in the bones of humans...
...In man, the development of bone cancer by strontium-90 has not yet been observed, since man has been exposed to this element in significant amounts for only three years...
...B. Lewis of the California Institute of Technology was able to make an estimate of the amount of this dread disease caused In natural background radiation...
...some effort must be made lo show the experimental knowledge upon which the conflicting statements are based...
...The symptoms ranged from pain and fractures of bones to bone-cancer formation...
...When we drink or eat calcium-containing foods, the strontium— along with the calcium—goes from the digestive organs into the blood stream...
...But it was a kind of strontium which had not been seen on the earth before, a radioactive strontium...
...It was found that a bone cancer had developed in one patient with a radium concentration of only eight times the MPC...
...John M. Fowler, PhD, is Assistant Professor of Physics at Washington...
...This is particularly true if the cell is a productive cell...
...Fallout: The fallout from these bombs is of three general kinds: 1. The local fallout consists of radioactive ash sucked up into the fireball itself, which generally returns to earth within a few days in the immediate vicinity of the blast site...
...They both gain their explosiveness from the enormous power released when matter is converted directly into energy, and they both take place within the nucleus, the atom's tiny, solid core...
...In dividing cells, the genetic matter is arranged in the form of long thin threads called chromosomes...
...nother source of such information is a study made by Dr...
...1.0 Population MPC for strontium-90...
...Geneticists warn against a rise in the mutation rate...
...These two reactions have much in common...
...Biological Effects: To call an dement radioactive means that it can give off radiation of some kind...
...Considerable confidence had been placed in the radium MPC until recently, when a detailed study was made of all the radium-dial painters and radium-therapy patients who had complete medical records...
...The differences are not of large magnitude and in themselves would not be viewed with alarm...
...His average body strontium-90 content will be 30 per cent of the population MPC, but because some bones, the breast bone for example, concentrate strontium-90 more than the average bone, he may have more than the population MPC in parts of his skeleton...
...lie often lias mutilated hands and skin cancer...
...While the fission reaction needs only a wandering cosmic-ray neutron to set it off, the fusion reaction needs plenty of neutrons of large energies—energies which, if measured in terms of Fahrenheit temperature, would be about 200 million degrees, as hot as the inside of the sun...
...That the radiation from strontium-90 can cause bone cancer has been demonstrated in animal experiments...
...Even the last revision, 0.3 rem/wk, is subject to change...
...In March 1954, at Bikini atoll in ' the Pacific, U.S...
...In the first place, the analysis is so difficult that we can look at only a limited number of cases and thus we have a "statistical uncertainty" in our result comparable to predicting the outcome of a baseball pennant race on the basis of the first few games...
...For other aspects of the nuclear-weapons problem, see Benjamin V. Cohen's discussion of "Disarmament and Political Settlement" 011 page I the next generation" and that radiation from tests already conducted "will ultimately have caused the deaths of about 1,000,000 people in the world.' • On May 10, in testimony given before the House Appropriations Subcommittee, Dr...
...0.24...
...Because of the awesome power released, the radioactive material is pushed up through the top of our atmosphere, where rain and snow form, into the region called the stratosphere, some 20 miles above the earth...
...In a sense, this very experiment has now been started on the world's population without its consent...
...It is this second kind of fallout from the nearby Nevada testing areas that has raised the radioactivity level of the Midwest above the national average...
...The "4-in-l,000 child," the child who because of his diet, his natural biological variation or his environment will have a strontium-90 content well above average, will, from testing thus far, have doubled his background radiation...
...Unfortunately, we cannot produce the fusion reaction alone...
...of Columbia University, have reported a worldwide study of the strontium-90 content of some (>00 bone samples...
...Here it floats for ten years, perhaps as many as 15, during which time the shorter-lived radioactivities die out, leaving only strontium-90, which has a "half-life" (the time in which half of the original material will decay) of 28 years, and radioactive cesium (a gamma-emitter without the bone-seeking properties of strontium) to concern us...
...in the fusion reaction, however, two deuterium nuclei (the so-called heavy hydrogen), which are among the smallest of the atoms, combine and form a larger nucleus...
...Three times greater than the child's chances of developing all types of meningitis...
...contributes but one-twentieth of the total, then an increase in the background by 10 per cent would cause an additional 4,000 deaths per year from leukemia for as long a period as this increased background level persists...
...we also hope to give the lay reader a sufficiently accurate working knowledge of radiation to enable him to judge future publications on this subject more realistically...
...This concern over the increasing radiation dosages applies not only to strontium-90—which because of its location in the bones, far from reproductive cells, may not be serious—but to radioactive cesium and artificial sources such as medical and dental X-rays as well...
...His estimate is 20 per cent...
...We can make estimates of the "statistical uncertainty" from several sources...
...Since the average adult has about 1,000 grams of calcium, this is usually interpreted as 1.0 microcurie of strontium-90 per adult skeleton...
...In comparing the number of malformed children born to radiologists with those born to their medical colleagues, a study, conducted by Drs...
...Because they are building their bones at a rapid rate, children are capable of storing up more strontium-90 from their diet than their parents...
...which has a tremendous amount of energy...
...The ICRP particularly emphasizes that the occupational MPC for strontium-90 is suitable only for supervised exposures of small numbers of adults, such as industrial or hospital situations, where medical supervision and safety devices are readily available...
...Ekelmann and Schulert...
...In the debris that sifted down from the sky for days and weeks afterward was the silvery white metallic element strontium...
...Since 1900...
...The weight of our past experience, combined with the obvious uncertainties from the meager experimental data available, should make us cautious in allowing our levels of radioactivity to approach the Maximum Permissible Concentration...
...Again the unsuspected danger of the fallout was brought to the world's attention by the Japanese, this time through the radiation injury suffered by the crew of a fishing trawler ironically named the Fortunate Dragon, which, though outside the official danger zone, was inside the fallout range of this surprisingly powerful weapon...
...It would be surprising if the amount of strontium-90 absorbed did not vary greatly...
...K. K. Turekian and Dr...
...Shelton s statement must be weighed against his position in the Defense Department, we are still faced with strong disagreement among careful and competent scientists as to the magnitude of the health hazards the world is facing...
...The few radioactive by-products of the fusion reaction are not considered so dangerous...
...The cell has only a limited ability to repair these breaks, and so the deformed chromosomes are passed on to all of the daughter cells, thus causing a changed hereditary pattern, a mutation...
...Since this issue so greatly affects the present and future generations of the world's people and since its very complexity precludes the existence of "experts...
...0.03 to 0.05 Present strontium-90 concentration in children . . . . ____ 0.0005 Average "1957 child," no more tests...
...For convenience, the MPC, the natural background and other pertinent data are compared in the accompanying table...
...In our civilization, the most important source of calcium is milk...
...Thus, today's radiologist permits himself only one-tenth of the radiation exposure considered safe for his 1931 colleague...
...This limits the damage to those cells immediately around the strontium atom, but of course there are many cells in a path an eight of an inch long...
...A similar experience was observed among patients of the Illinois Elgin State Hospital for the Insane who had received radium "therapeutically" at about the same time...
...we have also been subjected to medical and dental X-rays of varying intensity...
...If all or a large part of the normal incidence of bone cancer and leukemia is caused by this background radiation, then any increase over background increases the incidence of these two diseases by the same amount...
...In view of the uncertainties in the MPC, can it stand this close an approach...
...Schweitzer speaks is perhaps lessened by his isolation from channels of scientific information and Dr...
...Frank H. Shelton, chief atomic-weapons scientist in the Defense Department, offered assurance that "atomic testing can be continued at the present rate for another 40 to 50 years and not pose any serious danger to mankind...
...In the small sample of 277, there is one case which has a strontium content of 4 times the average...
...Once on the earth, the progress of strontium-90 through our environment is governed by its chemical similarity to calcium...
...There were 5 million children born in the United States in 1955...
...The present knowledge about prolonged low-level radiation exposure was not obtained without its cost to the radiological profession...
...Because it loses its energy rapidly when traveling through matter, it has a relatively short range, only about an eighth of an inch in living tissue...
...0.024 4 in 1,000, "1957 children," tests continue...
...But the questions we are being asked have only partial answers from such facts as these...
...That a case of bone cancer developed in one patient out of such a very small sample at a level only eight times the MPC clearly shows that there is no large safety factor in the MPC...
...Not only do biological variations occur among people, but the strontium-to-calcium ratio varies greatly in soils and will be reflected in the bone content...
...We cannot inject people with radioactive material and watch its effects...
...Some of these women died within the next year or two of acute radiation sickness...
...2. The atmospheric fallout consists of that part of the blast debris which is airborne for longer periods, perhaps circling the world several times...
...The temptation of the lay reader is to give up in frustration and leave the decision to the experts...
...The recommendations of the ICRP are used by the AEC for the protection of its workers in atomic installations...
...We have followed this silvery stranger through these wanderings...
...Let us examine the number of children who would fall into this "4-in-l,000" group and compare this number with several risks which are not generally considered negligible...
...These are mixed uniformly by the winds that blow at stratospheric levels and then slowly settle down to form an invisible but ominously present layer on the surface of the earth...
...They predict increased numbers of still-born and malformed children on the basis of their experience that the vast majority of mutations are bad...
...In the fission reaction, strontium-90 as well as a host of other dangerous short-lived radioactive elements are formed from the shattered uranium nucleus...
...There is only one man-made source of such enormous temperatures: the fission reaction...
...There is little disagreement as to the values given above...
...Of these...
...However, once in the bone the strontium-90 remains there emitting its radioactive radiation into the sensitive tissue surrounding it...
...In the second place, this analysis only tells us how much we have in our bodies now', whereas we need to know how much we—or...
...The fission reaction is the "splitting" of the nucleus of one of the largest atoms, uranium...
...On April 24, Dr...
...exploded in March 1954 and the USSR in April 1957...
...some died later from bone cancer which developed after a latent period of about 10 years...
...From the meager history of "radium poisoning," the radiologists can make some estimates of safe levels...
...The center of the cell, the nucleus, contains genetic matter by which the characteristics of the cell are passed on and so determines the heredity of the offspring...
...Two scientists summarize the known facts FALLOUT and HEALTH By Walter C. Bauer and John M. Fowler Concern over the hazards to health of past and future nuclear bomb tests has come sharply into focus again...
...Such body levels, with the even higher levels to be expected in such calcium-poor areas as Wales and northern Wisconsin, will certainly cause "non-negligible" amounts of bone cancer, leukemia, and genetic damage, no matter who does the neglecting...
...He outlining the way in which such things as safety levels for radiation are arrived at...
...The cow passes on only one-seventh of the strontium it gets from plants...
...The decision must be made by an informed and concerned public...
...By taking bones from autopsies of children and adults, burning them and measuring the radioactivity in the ash, we can directly measure the strontium-90 content...
...If one accepts the possibility that the normal incidence of bone cancer and leukemia is the result of natural or background radiation, then there is no "safe" level and each radioactive particle passing through cell tissue carries with it a small possibility of causing cancer or leukemia...
...The present problem was brought forcibly into the world on August 6, 1945, when a tremendous explosion blotted out the sun over Hiroshima and also blotted out the lives of some 70,000 Japanese...
...In non-reproductive cells, radiation damage which does not cause death can in some mysterious way change the characteristics of the cell and make it cancerous...
...From the table, we can see that the "average" 1957 child will then have 24 per cent of the MPC in his body (this means 100 per cent in the breast bone) and the "4-in-l,000" child 240 per cent in his body (1,000 per cent, or one occupational MPC, in his breast bone...
...There are two processes which power our "nuclear weapons," the fission reaction of the earlier atom bomb and the more powerful fusion reaction of the so-called H-bomb...
...Both of these practices are no longer permitted...
...0.1 Natural background per year...
...That this radiation can cause bone cancer and also leukemia seems certain in the light of the experience we have had with another substance which is radioactive and chemically similar to calcium, namely radium...
...more important, our children—will absorb into our bones by 1970 or 1980 after the present stratospheric load of strontium-90 settles down to earth...
...After making the appropriate corrections in the radium MPC for the physical and biological differences between radium-226 and strontium-90, the ICRP recommends that the occupational MPC be set at 1.0 microcurie of strontium-90 per thousand grams of calcium...
...Thus, the following picture of an H-bomb emerges: The center is an atom bomb, certainly a larger and more powerful one than that exploded at Hiroshima...
...Linus Pauling, winner of the 1952 Nobel Prize for chemistry and authority on molecular diseases, declared at the Honors Day Assembly at Washington University that "the tests thus far may be expected to cause the birth of 200,000 seriously defective children in Walter C. Bauer, MD, is Resident Fellow in Pathology at the Medical School of Washington University in St...
...As the electron passes through a cell, it loses energy by colliding with the materials of which the cell is constructed...
...3. The third kind of fallout is only associated with the super-weapons of a power greater than a million tons of TNT...
...If testing continues at the rate of the last five years, the strontium-90 content in the soil will increase to a value eight times the present level, with a corresponding increase in the strontium-90 bone content...
...This figure is .003 microcurie in his adult skeleton or 3 per cent of the MPC recommended for large populations...
...We sample it in the air with high-altitude balloons...
...Thus, it will be taken from the ground by plants, from plants and water by animals, and from animals, plants and water by man...
...Realizing that large populations including children cannot be closely supervised, and that escape from a strontium-90 polluted environment is not possible in view of the global nature of the fallout, the ICRP recommends that "in the case of the prolonged exposure of- a large population, the MPC should be reduced by a factor of 10 below that accepted for occupational exposures...
...On December 10, 1956, the National Committee on Radiological Protection recommended a further reduction to 0.1 rem/wk because of concern over the possible genetic effects...
...The amount of strontium-90, as this radioactive black sheep of the strontium family is called, contained in that first blast was small, and, though there was some concern over the effects of the continued exploding of A-bombs, it was not until some nine years later that the silvery metal became a significant and controversial part of our environment...
...Bone Doses in Microcuries Strontium-90 Per Adult Body Occupational MPC for strontium-90...
...From this table, it is clear that the average child will be fairly safe— although, as explained earlier, the probability of his having a defective gene or getting leukemia will have increased somewhat...
...Fission and Fusion: The new dimension which was added to the problem was the nuclear process known as the fusion reaction...
...By choosing, on careful analysis, the bone-cancer victim with the smallest amount of radium in his bones, the ICRP was able to establish a Maximum Permissible Concentration (MPC) for workers with occupational exposure to radium...
...A 10-per-cent increase in this background due to fallout would cause an additional 200 deaths per vear in this country...
...The collisions damage vital cell processes and lead to cell injury or cell death...
...The incidence among those with higher concentrations will, of course, be proportionally greater...
...Here the similarity ends...
...While the authority with which Dr...
...The pertinent MPC for the worldwide fallout of strontium-90 (MPC/population) is therefore 0.1 microcurie of strontium-90...
...These abnormalities occur, however, in the first generation of offspring, and visible first-generation effects represent only a small fraction of the total damage that may have been inflicted...
...Cell injury may have serious consequences for future generations...
...i2 samples were from children, which permitted the computing of an a\erage value id stronlium-l'0 concentration in each child...
...and radiation from materials, mostly radioactive potassium and radium, within our own bodies...
...Since the strontium-90 MPC was derived from the radium MPC, it is equally clear that any uncertainties in the radium MPC must be carried over to the strontium-90 MPC...
...As more knowledge about radiation biology accumulates, the original standards no longer provide sufficient safety margins...
...Schweitzer and others say these numbers, though small, are not negligible...
...A study in l'TiS provides good reason for the genetic concern...
...Lewis's study, cause an additional 500-1,000 new cases of leukemia each year...
...Public Health Service, concluded in part "that small, prolonged doses of radiation produce abnormalities in humans...
...This lost weight disappears into the energy of the blast...
...and "How much are we going to accumulate in our bones...
...For answers to these questions, we must turn to the medical profession for its experience with radioactivity...
...From the spread of the data around this average, a statistical analysis predicts that I i liildri-ti in 10 will ha\e „ si rontiuin...
...From the blood stream, a part is eliminated by way of the kidneys and the rest is deposited in our bones...
...Thus, even if testing is stopped, the risk the "4-in-l,000" child runs of reaching a dangerous level of strontium-90 is equal to or greater in magnitude than risks which are universally recognized to be legitimate public-health concerns...
...Two times greater than the child's chances of being killed in an automobile accident...
...In a study of radiation-induced leukemia published recently in Science...
...Because there are many energetic neutrons produced in the fusion reaction capable of causing fission in cheap natural uranium, the fusion shell is then surrounded by a layer of this natural uranium...
...These highly organized structures seem to be particularly susceptible to radiation damage, in which the threads are broken...
...A microcurie is a unit of measurement of radioactivity...
...The approach taken by the International Committee on Radiological Protection (ICRP), a body composed of members of scientific and radiological societies throughout the world, which is the accepted source of safety levels, is based on the very limited occupational experience in the radium watch-dial industry and on a relatively few patients who received radium injections for medical reasons...
...The expected variation is again shown...
...Large dosages produce radiation sickness and death after a short time...
...For example, in Wales, where the soil calcium is low, the strontium-90 content in the bones of sheep has been found to be five or ten times greater than that in sheep from Utah or Montana, where soil calcium is high...
...The disagreement is in the interpretation...
...We are being asked "How much is safe...
...In the early 1920s, approximately 200-300 women employed in the luminous watch-dial industry in New Jersey unintentionally deposited radium in their bones from their practice of "sharpening" radium-containing paint brushes in their mouths...
...Louis...
...The inside of the atomic-bomb fireball reaches heats comparable to the sun and great enough to trigger the fusion reaction...
...The radiologist has a shortened life span by 5.6 years on the average, and five times the probability of contracting leukemia, as his fellow physician...
...Schweitzer's letter, Dr...
...0.003 4 in 1,000, "1957 children," no more tests...
...Natural or background radiation is composed of: radiation from outer space (cosmic radiation), radiation from the rocks and soils around us...
...Continued low-level dosages will cause bone damage, and in many cases, after a period of time lasting up to half the animal's normal life, bone cancer will appear and spread throughout the body...
...at first seems easier to answer...
...Some 20,000 of these may have as much as a third of the recommended safe dose by 1980...
...The radiation from strontium-90 consists of an electron (beta particle...
...concentration of ten limes tile a\rrage...
...0.03 Average "1957 child," tests continue...
...It is sobering to realize that a constantly maintained strontium-90 level of one population MPC in the United States will, by Dr...
...This gives a fission-fusion-fission bomb, and it was such a bomb that the U.S...
...weapons experts exploded an H-bomb which released explosive energy some 1,000 times greater than that contained in the earlier atom bombs...
...We know the energy of its radiation, the extent of its life, and its entire line of descendants...
...It is not the scientist—neither AEC employe nor university professor—who must decide this question...
...The experience with the occupational radium MPC is an example of what seems to be general experience in the field of radiological safety standards...
...Willard F. Libby, member of the Atomic Energy Commission and authoritative radiation scientist, stated that "it is very generally agreed, among those who have studied the question, that the radiation exposures from fallout are much smaller than those which would be required to produce observable effects in the population...
...Cells reproduce themselves by dividing...
...If we compare this to the world population, of which the U.S...
...Calcium, one of the most important minerals in life processes, is found in considerable quantities in almost all living matter...
...There are two drawbacks in such an experiment...
...Lawrence and Macht of the U.S...
...Pauling, Dr...
...Thus, of the 10,500 deaths from leukemia per year in this country, 2,100 are probably due to natural radiation...
...It is a decision which, by its very nature, may be made only once, and the hour of decision is upon us...
...From 1.2 rem (roentgen equivalent medical) per week, the permissible dosage was lowered to 0.6 rem/wk in 1936 and finally 0.3 rem/wk in 1949...
...We have lived with artificial radioactivity now a scant 60 years and with this nuclear-fallout radiation only three or four...
...the human body will deposit in bone only about one-half of the strontium it gets in its foods...
...The "immediate vicinity" means an area of some 5,000-10,000 square miles, and it was this fallout which landed on the Fortunate Dragons crew...
...To wilfully endanger this precious germ plasm and increase the incidence of such feared diseases as bone cancer and leukemia in order to more finely tune the weapons of war would seem foolish...
...The official AEC position is that a 5-10-per-cent increase in the natural background and the dangerous levels in the "unaverage" children is negligible...
...These are also situations where personnel can be removed from the radioactive environment at the first indication of trouble...
...iRadiological Safety Levels: The problem of setting safety levels for radioactivity is extremely difficult...
...On May 15, Dr...
...Adults also store strontium because of a continuous remodeling of their bones, and strontium-90 will seek out these remodeling sites...
...To pass on to future generations, as a golden heritage, an unblemished genetic constitution would be wisdom of the highest order...
...In both cases, we find that the final products—the shattered uranium nucleus in the fission case, and the combined nucleus in the fusion case— weigh less than the original products did...
...Of this small group of patients, 47 in all, it was found that about half had complained of symptoms that could reasonably be attributed to radium in their bones...
...Kulp...
...Wherever calcium is found, we will now expect to find strontium-90 also...
...Albert Schweitzer, the internationally respected humanitarian and scientist, released a letter which concluded that "we are forced to regard every increase in the existing danger through atom-bomb explosions as a catastrophe for the human race...
...Kulp of the occurrence of natural strontium in human bones...
...It is surrounded by a shell of the light fusion material, heavy hydrogen, in some form...
...These last bombs are the most economical in terms of "bang for a buck"—and the most dangerous in terms of strontium-90 content...
...The chances of a 1955 child falling into this group are: • The same as the chance that child had of acquiring polio in its lifetime before the Salk vaccine...
...Consider what has happened since 1931 to the ICRP's maximum permissible dosages for radiation of the whole body (a standard widely utilized by practicing radiologists...
...It has taken evolutionary processes lasting thousands of years for man to obtain a germ plasm free from major defects...
...The particular concern for children is based on the observation that strontium is rapidly deposited in areas where new bone is being made...
...There is another approach to the question of safety levels...
...With these sources of variation in mind, we can estimate the amount of strontium-90 that a child, born in 1957 and growing up through the years when the strontium content on the earth is high, will absorb into his bones...
...We chemically separate it from the soil...
...Fortunately for our health, stron-tium-90 is not exactly like calcium and some of the various biological processes along the way prefer calcium to strontium...
...On April 26, in a reply to Dr...
Vol. 40 • June 1957 • No. 26
