Disarmament and Political Settlement

...The second area in which significant progress in disarmament might be made is in the combining of political settlement and disarmament for regions upon which international conflict and tension center...

...Some forms of disarmament might actually increase the danger of war...

...preserve the possibility of more effective weapons control in the future...

...A full report of that parley has just been issued and may be obtained free by writing to: The Committee for World Development and World Disarmament, 345 E. 46th St., New York 17, N.Y...

...keep a watch and slow down the rise of many other nuclear military powers...

...It is possible that disarmament or arms - limitation arrangements may similarly be helpful in facilitating political settlement in the troubled areas in the Middle East and possibly also in the Formosa straits...

...There are two areas in which I think proposals could be made which would contribute significantly toward progress in disarmament...

...Proposals for partial or limited disarmament must be carefully weighed to determine whether they will reduce and not increase the dangers of war and whether they will help pave and not obstruct the way for further and more drastic disarmament...

...On the contrary, it should immeasurably increase the possibility of collective security by bringing the task of its accomplishment within manageable proportions...

...Nor would there be any real progress toward disarmament if we agreed to throw away some of our old arms but those arms were to be supplanted by new and more deadly ones...

...I identify the type of measures on which agreement might be sought without attempting to elaborate them in detail and without intending to suggest that some of the measures might not be dropped and others included in a package proposal of this nature...

...Universal disarmament, if ever achieved, would obviously involve radical changes in the military establishment of NATO...

...Drastic and general disarmament presents less difficulty in respect to policing and inspection than limited and partial disarmament...

...6. The establishment (possibly but not necessarily exclusively in connection with the ground-inspection control posts) of a worldwide network of radar and other monitoring devices to insure the prompt and widest possible detection of nuclear tests and ballistic-missile tests and the location and numbers of airborne aircraft...

...3. The control of future production of fissionable materials to prevent their use to increase the stockpiles of nuclear weapons...

...But the difficulty is that back of most political conflicts are questions which affect the balance of power relations in the world...

...2. The banning of nuclear tests with defined widespread radioactive effects and of tests of defined long-range ballistic missiles...

...Regional disarmament might well warrant some modification of existing plans for the military establishment of NATO in respect to Germany, if it makes possible the unification of a free Germany and the liberation of Eastern Europe from the yoke of Russian troops...

...Unless progress toward the goal increases the confidence of all the principal powers of the world that the goal is in their common interest and is attainable, we will never reach it...

...Such right of withdrawal may dispel fears of unforeseeable risks in disarmament arrangements which statesmen responsible for the national security of their country may hesitate to take...

...the danger of war if it is approached simply (1) as a means of reducing the costs of preparing for war, (2) as a bargaining process by which nations hope to improve their strategic position in the event of war, or (3) as a means of regulating how wars should be waged or the kind or armaments which may be used in war...

...I strongly favor continuing our efforts in the United Nations to develop the essentials of a comprehensive disarmament plan to achieve the objectives that I have outlined...

...The only effective way to eliminate the burdens of armaments and the horrors of war is to eliminate war itself...

...Since the greatest danger of war comes from an imbalance of armed strength which leads potential aggressors to believe that they can gain from war what they cannot gain by other means, we must make sure that steps toward disarmament do not create or perpetuate an imbalance of armed strength in the world dangerous to peace and security...

...Such a network would be more useful in giving warning of surprise attack than intermittent serial inspection, particularly if reinforced by an agreement limiting the number of airborne long-range bombardment aircraft and requiring the reporting of flights prior to take-off...

...If disarmament is to be effective as a means of preventing resort to war as a means of settling international disputes, the world must be disarmed to the point that any substantial preparations or mobilization would be readily detectable, and the world must be so open as to dispel even suspicion of evasion...

...Such a package proposal would tend to slow down the race for the development of new weapons, thereby minimizing the chances of a surprise breakthrough which might upset the balance of deterrence...

...Drastic and general disarmament coupled with the transfer of a reserve of armaments to United Nations authorities would further impair the decisive importance of any secreted armaments which might escape detection...

...But we dare not tear down and abandon the armed deterrents to war which we now have before we devise and secure other and more effective guarantees of peace...

...Aerial inspection of, and exchange of blueprints of military installations in, designated areas, with provision for their progressive extension to other areas...

...Some may say such proposals or arrangements would be only a face-saving device for Russia, which sooner or later will have to withdraw from Germany and Eastern Europe in any event...

...The effectiveness of disarmament proposals must be judged by the extent to which they reduce the danger, likelihood and possibility of war...

...Large national armies and armaments are as inimical to international peace as large private armies and armaments are to domestic peace...

...Predominant reliance on the most devastating nuclear weapons with relative disarmament in conventional arms may make it impossible to repel local aggression and to quiet local breaches of the peace without the use of nuclear weapons—and might leave no other choice than sorry appeasement or suicidal massive retaliation as a means of dealing with minor aggression...

...There are equally promising approaches to disarmament in connection with political settlements in regions where the danger of incidents and conflict is the greatest...

...But I would be less than frank if I gave the impression that I thought these objectives could be achieved at a single bound or by a single treaty...

...it has become a practical necessity...

...Once fighting starts and is allowed to continue, there is no assurance that a small or limited war will remain small or limited...

...The first area covers measures which would tend to arrest or slow down the armaments race without materially affecting the present balance of power and the breach of which measures would be self-detectable or detectable with a minimum of inspection or agreed monitoring...

...Disarmament is not likely to prevent war or to reduce Benjamin V. Cohen, who helped draft much of the New Deal legislation, also served as a delegate to the United Nations Disarmament Commission...

...Disarmament must be related to the problem of preventing war as a means of settling disputes between nations...

...Important as it is to know and to define the goal we wish to reach, it is not easy and probably not practical to determine in advance the exact phrasing of progress toward the goal or the exact arrangements which would best safeguard the goal if and when it is reached...

...and provide valuable experience in the development of techniques of inspection and control on a limited basis...

...resourceful and cooperative thinking, flexibility in approach and quiet diplomatic exploration may be more important at this stage than dramatic public overtures: 1. The reporting of all or defined nuclear tests and of all or defined ballistic-missile tests and their international supervision and limitation to the extent necessary to insure the observance of safety and health precautions...

...Disarmament must not be deferred until, but linked with, political settlement if we wish to make constructive progress in either disarmament or political settlement...

...Obviously, if agreement to slow down or stop the armaments race is impossible, agreement to reverse the race and cut down our arms is not likely to be possible...

...It is for that reason that I would favor giving the principal powers concerned, at least for a considerable period, the right to withdraw from any disarmament agreement which may be made if any such power should conclude that the agreements are not working out satisfactorily...

...This article is based on the views he presented at the recent Arden House Conference on Disarmament...

...If progress toward the goal increases confidence in the desirability and attainability of the goal, many of the remaining problems will appear in a much different context than they now appear...

...Drastic and general disarmament would not militate against collective security...

...Law enforcement in the international field, like law enforcement in the domestic field, depends not on a vast accumulation of arms in the possession of the peace officers but on a rigid limitation of arms in the possession of organized groups not responsible or responsive to the peace officers...

...Unilateral disarmament may invite rather than deter aggression and strengthen the rule, not of law, but of might in the world...

...5. Ground-inspection control posts at designated air and seaports and railroad and highway junctions, with provision for their progressive extension to other areas...

...It is sometimes said that the most serious international political conflicts must be settled before we can make progress in disarmament...

...There is some protection, perhaps the only possible protection, against inevitable slip-ups in detection and inspection if disarmament is carried far enough to insure that no chief of staff, when asked, will be able to report to his government that his country is ready for war without undertaking preparations for mobilization which would take considerable time and would be difficult to conceal...

...I should hope that significant areas of agreement might be found which would permit progress toward disarmament without waiting for agreement on a complete and comprehensive plan...

...Such a right of withdrawal might encourage progress which would otherwise be impossible...

...The scrapping of nuclear armaments might even, under certain circumstances, encourage conventional warfare without any assurance that, if the conventional warfare were prolonged, one side or the other would not reintroduce nuclear armaments...

...There is reason to hope that, despite or perhaps because of the deplorable events in Hungary, the unification of a free Germany and the liberation of Eastern Europe would be expedited and not delayed by arrangements for the control and limitation of arms and armed forces in that troubled area...

...It is said that it will be as difficult in the future to detect concealed stocks of ballistic missiles and secret underground launching platforms as it now is to detect slocks of atomic bombs...

...It would seem possible to combine in one package proposal a number of related measures which would tend to slow down the armaments race without affecting the existing balance of armed power and without requiring more than limited inspection or monitoring...

...Some of these measures might be instituted in this first instance by agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union within the framework of the United Nations and later might be extended so as to have more universal application...

...When men fight to kill, they are not likely to trust one another to observe any Marquis of Queensberry rules...

...Peaceful exploration of space might proceed under United Nations auspices as a cooperative international enterprise...

...For that very reason consideration should be given to attempting to develop plans of arms control and limitation as a prelude to, or as a part of, political settlement...

...Of course, proposals involving important modification of the military arrangements of NATO should not be made without prior consultation with the NATO countries...

...True and effective disarmament must be universal and enforceable to the end that (1) no state shall be in a condition of armed preparedness to start a war, and (2) no state shall be in a position to undertake preparations or mobilization for war without other states having knowledge of such preparations or mobilization long before the offending state could start a war...

...The prevention and abolition of war as a means of settling international disputes is no longer merely a visionary ideal...

...stop the tests which now or in the future may be most dangerous to health and safety...

...But if we are going to make any progress toward universal and general disarmament, we must come forward with proposals which will bear witness to our desire lo move toward and not away from disarmament...

...An expert analyzes the problems of Disarmament and Political Settlement By Benjamin V Cohen It is becoming increasingly clear that, if mankind is to live in this nuclear age, men must revolutionize their thinking about war and disarmament...

...But such arrangements may also avert a world war...