NATO's Crisis

...Even so, most experts believe it would be quite impossible to re duce Britain's commitments sufficiently to justify the total abolition of conscription...

...Indeed, Macmillan's decision will do much good if it compels NATO to clear up some of the ambiguities which are at present corroding the alliance at its very core...

...One reason for the failure of the Continental countries to meet their targets has been the obscurity of NATO's intentions in case of war...

...have consistently maintained their full contribution of 9 divisions toward this target, France and Germany have shown little sign of doing so...

...Europe and the United States have met the announcement of this decision with unanimous alarm...

...But it involves great political dangers...

...Strategic Air Command, once this means the destruction of the United States in turn...

...Macmillan seems to have decided that if the local defense of Western Europe is practically excluded, security can best be achieved by small atomic formations whose engagement by Soviet troops would automatically involve the strategic thermonuclear power of Britain and the U.S.—which would, in fact, act as a trip-wire for massive retaliation...

...Certainly the new British cuts will bring matters to a head and force NATO to make an agonizing reappraisal of its military role...

...At the recent Western European Union meeting in London, German Foreign Minister Heinrich von Brentano hinted at this problem when he pointed out the diplomatic dangers of leaving Germany the strongest military power in Europe...

...Unless great steps are taken in this direction quickly, it will be too late...

...It was partly doubts on this score which led Britain to seek immunity by building her own thermonuclear striking force...

...And, in particular, what can prevent West Germany, once she has her own atomic weapons, from leaving the alliance to negotiate a private deal with Russia on reunification...

...In 1952, the Lisbon Conference set the requirements for a forward strategy at something between 60 and 90 divisions...

...control NATO'S CRISIS By Denis Healey London In spite of all that has been said about the need to extend the Atlantic alliance into the political and economic fields, it remains essentially a military organization...

...But, now that even neutral Sweden seeks immunity through the power of nuclear retaliation, can the Atlantic alliance survive once this terrible power is available independently to each of its members...

...The whole trend of military thinking under the Conservative governments since 1951 has been against the NATO doctrine that it is essential to produce a defense shield in Central Europe rather than a deterrent "trip-wire...

...In this situation, it looks as if Britain has grown tired of contributing to a NATO force which will remain too weak for a shield and too strong for a trip-wire...

...Besides being grossly wasteful of manpower—particularly in a country with military commitments overseas —conscription is electorally the most irritating element in any defense program...

...Though of course she is still negotiating with the Federal Republic for higher support costs, she seems determined in any case to cut the manpower in her Rhine Army...

...General Lnuris Norstad, the new NATO Supreme Commander, Hew to London at the beginning of February in a fruitless attempt to change Macmillan's mind—and, having failed, began a belated campaign to mobilize public opinion behind the NATO military doctrine...

...there must be much more publicity about the nature and effect of the new weapons, and about the strategic concept they are intended to serve...

...NATO has refused to say whether it would seek to limit the use of atomic weapons in any way, leaving it to be assumed that a Soviet attack in Central Europe would lead immediately to total global thermonuclear war—or "race-suicide," as President Eisenhower calls it...

...Underlying these economic and political grounds for cuts in Germany, there is a strategic ground which the Government is unwilling to admit—particularly since General Norstad has begged it not to...

...On the contrary, it is itself one inevitable result of NATO's failure to face the problems collectively in time...

...The immediate cause of the military crisis is the British Government's decision to cut its troops in Germany by a third...

...Yet...

...Though so far Britain and the U.S...

...It looks as if Macmillan will have his way, but will prolong the phasing of the cuts to save NATO's face...

...On the other hand, half her defense expenditure is outside the NATO area, as is that of France, the only other European country with a comparable burden...

...Britain has the right to seek Allied assistance—not least from the Germans themselves...

...only Chancellor Adenauer has so far drawn the logical conclusion that NATO should seek a ban on all atomic weapons and seek security in massive conventional forces alone...

...On the other hand, since Russia herself has acquired the power of thermonuclear retaliation, doubt about the willingness of America and Britain to commit suicide for the sake of Central Europe has weakened confidence in the alliance as such...

...And if finance was the only obstaclo to maintaining existing forces in Germany...

...and the most rational alternative to abolition, selective service, may be politically even less tolerable than universal national service...

...One reason is the Government's political interest in abolishing conscription before the next general election...

...How far, in fact, can Europe rely on support by the U.S...

...in deference to Allied decisions, Britain has maintained her four divisions in Germany as a pledge of loyalty to the alliance...

...And once NATO has decided on a strategic concept which makes sense to the peoples to whom it is responsible, there must be a much fairer distribution of the burdens it imposes—a distribution which fully exploits the economies possible under rationalization and specialization within a collective effort...

...The British decision to cut its NATO contribution has forced them into the light, but it has not created them...

...NATO will survive so long as it provides its members with military security—and will collapse the moment it fails to do so...

...Is it conceivable that within ten years any of the big European powers will not have its own nuclear forces...

...Two things at least are essential if the alliance is to survive: Public opinion must be taken into the confidence of the military planners, since only public opinion can provide the forces they require...

...This target was reduced in 1953 to 30 divisions—but on condition that they employed atomic weapons from the start...

...The Suez debacle has imposed heavy strains on her balance of payments, and she is at present spending far more on defense than any of her European allies —over ?30 a head, compared with just over ?12 a head in Germany...

...This will mean withdrawing one of the two armored divisions and 6 of the 22 infantry battalions, as well as substantial pruning of their administrative "tail...

...The Germans have already cut by 40 per cent the manpower they promised to achieve when they entered NATO— though their estimated 12 divisions were the key to the whole Allied effort...

...It would be unpardonable frivolity to allow the Treasury to fix the level of defense expenditure without reference to the real needs of security...

...And since France has had to keep half a million soldiers in Algeria, it is doubtful whether she has any efficient fighting formations at all in Germany...

...Britain's allies in the Western European Union, against a majority of whom Britain has undertaken not to reduce her European forces, protested in turn—but could not decide whether it was worth risking an open breach with Britain by imposing a formal veto...

...In fact, she is carrying just about double the handicap of her main competitors in world trade...

...Once NATO decided in 1950 to seek a German defense contribution, it committed itself politically to a "forward strategy," aiming at the territorial defense of all Allied territory...

...For this reason, the current crisis in NATO's defense policy is more serious than even the political crisis produced by the Anglo-French adventure in Suez...

...The 75,000 men at present in Britain's Rhine Army will be reduced to 50,000...

...Once the idea of local defense is finally abandoned, France, Germany and the other European countries are bound to follow suit...

...Partly at Norstad's request, Britain is basing the case for these reductions on purely financial grounds...

...It now looks as if the British Government feels the "shield" concept is so unlikely to be realized that it is futile to continue making this sacrifice...

...This is a reasonable enough conclusion to draw from the muddle of NATO planning in the past...

...So the European countries have seen little point in producing soldiers to hold a line in a radioactive desert—particularly since the atomic weapons with which the war would be fought are wholly in the hands of others...

...But it is impossible to believe that this is the only reason for the cuts proposed...

...These are the emergent problems of the next phase in world politics...

...Prime Minister Macmillan has decided in principle on these cuts before the War Office has agreed on how to reorganize the remaining forces—it is possible that Britain will still keep four nominal divisions in Germany, though greatly diminished in manpower...

...Yet, on the other hand, how can the alliance survive so long as its major weapons are withheld from the countries most exposed to attack...