Coming: War in the Middle East?
Laqueur, Walter
Coming: War in the Middle East? By W. Z. Laqueur Chances of a conflict in the area are greater now than ever before London The chances of war in the Middle East are greater now than at any time...
...It would be extremely unpleasant for Israel, of course, if Western economic help was cut off and an arms embargo, or possibly a blockade, was imposed...
...Why has Moscow shifted from its highly successful non-intervention policy...
...This was repeated after World War II, when attempts to move into northern Iran and Turkey failed...
...It suggests, further, that Moscow would be willing to sign the Western powers' 1950 declaration to that effect...
...Nasser, with the help of Western and/or Eastern political pressure and the threat to "throw the Jews into the sea," will probably try to make Israel give up some of its territory (half of it, to be exact) and take back all the Arab refugees...
...Current Soviet policy in this area is power policy, pure and simple...
...There is overwhelming pressure on the Israeli Government to accept the Egyptian challenge before all the Communist MIGs and tanks have been delivered...
...And Communist domination of the Middle East is only conceivable in the wake of war...
...But the Israeli Government is not likely to give in to such pressures, and the Cairo junta will be faced with the necessity of starting a war...
...Even an Israeli victory would not be conclusive: it would mean destruction of the enemy's forces, but a small country of less than two million people cannot hope for a lasting decision...
...How did the West manage to lose the Middle East...
...The Soviet attitude toward these states, which had been extremely critical and sometimes openly hostile, changed overnight...
...Not that a date for the conflict is already set...
...As seen from Moscow, a new Soviet drive in the Middle East was imperative under these conditions, and it was launched this spring...
...Some consolation may be found in the indisputable fact that the Middle East has proven itself unpredictable in the past, but this is cold comfort...
...The Cairo junta, or in any case Nasser, would be overthrown unless it was evident within a few weeks that the Arabs were going to win the conflict...
...Never in recent years, in fact, have conditions in the Middle East been less dependent on what the West might or might not do...
...In the long run, therefore, military success alone cannot solve Israel's problems...
...But Washington and London have refused any such guarantee and rejected the arms request...
...Until they realize the extent of Communist penetration as a result of their activities and are thus moved to do something about it, Western offers or words of warning will not bring about any change in this policy...
...Theoretically, Israel could counter the Egyptian-Czechoslovak arms deal by requesting similar Soviet aid, but a democratic country has far less freedom of movement vis-a-vis the Soviet Union than a dictatorship...
...And the West could not intervene as it did in Korea, for this would give the Soviet Union cause for intervention, too...
...The Soviet Union has nothing to gain from a preservation of the status quo in the Middle East...
...Egypt and the other Arab countries that had refused to join the West's proposed defense alliance became Russia's natural allies...
...If this symptom were to disappear tomorrow, Nasser and his friends would not be any more inclined to join forces with the free world...
...It would be a mistake, therefore, to make too much of Russia's professed sympathy for the Arab world and its antagonism to Israel (as many Western observers now tend to do...
...This implies that Russia would be willing to share responsibility with the West for maintaining peace there...
...In several respects, the present state of affairs brings to mind the situation that existed in 1939: Moscow, of course, cannot be held responsible for Hitler's plans of world conquest...
...This will merely lower (and already has lowered) Western prestige...
...So it is wrong to assume, as some observers may, that another war in the Middle East would solve the area's difficulties by weakening Israel and the Arab states to the point where they would be more amenable to reaching a compromise than hitherto...
...a dictatorial regime simply cannot retreat from such promises indefinitely, especially when public opinion has been whipped into a state of frenzy...
...There is a tendency in some quarters to blame the emergence of the State of Israel for Western failure in the Middle East, but this argument crumbles under examination...
...Communists are quite correct in stressing that the Kremlin likes one Middle Eastern nation as much as another...
...By W. Z. Laqueur Chances of a conflict in the area are greater now than ever before London The chances of war in the Middle East are greater now than at any time since major Arab-Israeli hostilities were halted on January 7, 1949...
...Even if we disregard the fact that the "defense of Western values" has little meaning to the Arabs, we must note that there was no minimum agreement on international politics either...
...Moreover, Israel cannot be expected to play the "sitting duck" role for five years, although the procedure for making a decision--particularly one that concerns war--is very cumbersome in a democratic country...
...Those who present this theory, however, are basing it on an unduly optimistic interpretation of the "Geneva spirit...
...In contrast to 1948, too, there are enough arms in the Middle East now to sustain a war for several months...
...But if the dilemma is to incur Western displeasure or an Arab League invasion with superior forces, it is easy to see which course Israel will follow...
...Since both the West and the Soviet Union appear unwilling to change their policies regarding this part of the world, its future seems very dim indeed...
...The truth is that the West has not "had" it since France gave up her Levant mandates and England pulled out of Egypt and Palestine...
...What is more, there is no "Israeli issue" in India or Indonesia, yet the West is encountering difficulty there, too...
...It has been further expanded by the adhesion of Pakistan, Iran and Britain to the agreement...
...Cairo's ruling junta was attacked as "fascist hangmen'' for the execution of Moslem Brotherhood leaders and the arrest of some Communist chieftains...
...As late as last January...
...The Middle East has been one of Russia's traditional spheres of interest for almost 200 years, and Soviet-Western rivalry there was a frequent occurrence in the nineteenth century...
...The rapprochement culminated in the Czechoslovak arms deal and a Soviet promise to give Egypt (and other Arab countries) "all possible help"--whatever that may mean...
...It was viewed as proof of Russia's lack of interest in the area and provided a sharp contrast to the "imperialist" West's attempts to draw the Middle East into its defense plans...
...This does not mean that "preventive war" is being urged, but it does indicate that the Middle East could now find itself engaged in a full-scale war as a result of one of the weekly incidents that have previously been considered a normal part of the armistice...
...At best, therefore, the crisis over Israel can only be considered a symptom, not the cause, of Western-Arab friction...
...Consequently, it is not only useless but harmful to try to outbid the Russians in Cairo and Damascus at the present time...
...For a brief period after World War I, the Soviet Union "withdrew" from the sphere...
...They have warned Israel, moreover, not to do anything that might "provoke the Egyptians...
...Thus, Israel has asked the Western powers for a defense pact, including a guarantee of its frontiers and arms to balance the Communist shipments...
...This began to take shape early in the year with the Turkish-Iraqi pact...
...Such "inevitable wars" among non-Communist nations were predicted in Stalin's last book, Economic Problems of Socialism in the USSR, and his heirs apparently are intent on making the predictions come true...
...Under these circumstances, the wisest Middle Eastern course for the West is the one followed by Moscow before it launched its recent offensive: Overt intervention should be reduced to the barest minimum...
...close ties should be maintained with friendly countries, and normal relations should be established with all others...
...Local wars have become more, not less, likely as a result of the understanding that there will be no major conflict in the foreseeable future...
...All the evidence available suggests that Egypt is bound to attack Israel, and that other Arab nations will probably follow suit...
...Communist arms deliveries to Egypt will be made over a five-year period, but internal pressures are so strong that Nasser cannot wait that long to launch his campaign...
...What are Russia's intentions in the Middle East...
...The free world's policy was bound to fail, for the simple reason that most of the Arab states have little in common with the West...
...As it turned out, however, this second involuntary retreat was very much to Moscow's advantage...
...But it is even more fond of conditions that are conducive to the establishment of one or more Middle Eastern "people's democracies...
...The new Soviet drive to gain a foothold in the area, resulting in the Czech-Egyptian arms deal, did not surprise Middle Eastern observers...
...The answer immediately presents itself when one observes that the switch to more aggressive tactics followed the emergence of the West's "Northern Tier" defense plan...
...That is, except in the imaginations of some British and American statesmen who completely disregard Asian realities: the lack of a firm basis for agreement, the innate neutralism of these countries, and their obvious desire to play the West off against the East and vice versa...
...Ideological considerations are not involved here, because there are no great Communist parties in the Middle East...
...attempts to organize defensive arrangements with countries that refuse to cooperate with the West anyway should be halted...
...What are the intentions of the Arab League...
...In addition to sending delegations of scientists, churchmen, footballers, etc...
...Not that Moscow really cares who wins or loses this conflict...
...to the Arab world and inviting it to send similar groups to Communist countries, Moscow has strengthened its economic ties with the Arabs (although the political importance of trade relations is frequently exaggerated...
...With the possible exception of Iraq, the Arab states have always rejected the idea of a Soviet danger, regarding it as a device to perpetuate Western domination of the Middle East...
...For too long a period now it has been promising Israel's destruction without any firm moves in this direction...
...While it is difficult to speculate about Israel, it is fairly certain that such a war would only set up the conditions necessary for the emergence of '"people's democracies" in the Middle East...
...These warnings, however, have not made much of an impression in Jersualem...
...But without the Hitler-Stalin pact of 1939 he could not have launched his attack in the West...
...some other issue reflecting Arab resentment would take its place...
...It is impossible to list even briefly the many steps taken by Moscow during the last six months to establish closer relations with the Arab League...
...Moreover, in the current international atmosphere, the Western powers can do little beyond lodging diplomatic protests and warnings at Geneva, Moscow, Cairo and Jerusalem...
...Egypt and Syria are obviously determined to play the major blocs off against each other without committing themselves to either camp...
...Similarly, Moscow cannot be held responsible for the explosive conditions existing in the Middle East...
...Some Western observers have argued that the Kremlin merely wants to demonstrate that it, too, is a Middle Eastern power and must be consulted on all decisions affecting the area...
...But Egyptian Premier Gamal Abdel Nasser cannot start a war without Soviet backing...
...For example, Russia supported Israel in 1948 and Britain did not, yet Moscow has not been harmed by its action...
...If there is any cause for surprise, it is that this offensive has come rather late...
...Otherwise, it has been stated, the West will have to act against Israel...
...It could just as well have come during the Mossadegh era or at the time of Egypt's "Black Saturday...
...Victory in the second round would not preclude a third round...
...A second defeat, or even a stalemate, would bring chaos to the Arab world...
...A Middle Eastern war within the next year would probably end in an Israeli victory, a war at a later date in a stalemate...
...it can greatly aid its cause by upsetting the equilibrium in that part of the world...
Vol. 38 • October 1955 • No. 43
