The Austrian Treaty:
DALLIN, DAVID J.
New Western 'situation of strength' caused end of Soviet occupation The Austrian Treaty By David J. Dallin WITH GREAT indignation, the New Times of Moscow, mouthpiece of Soviet Foreign Minister...
...With some exception-, industry and trade were not nationalized in the Soviet Zone of Austria: in Soviet parlance, this means that "socialism" was not established...
...The growth of NATO and the imminent rearmament of West Germany are ending this situation of uncertainty...
...There will be plenty of outbursts of hostility, plenty of crises and conflicts...
...Some day, Soviet troops would have to be withdrawn anyway...
...East Germany has been "socialized...
...It rather resembled Russian military occupation in pre-Revolutionary times: rule by force, but no attempt to impose a new social order...
...This juxtaposition, always in the same terms, has become the standard theme of Soviet propaganda in the last few months...
...According to the Hungarian and Rumanian peace treaties of 1947, Soviet forces stationed in these countries to "maintain the line of communication" with Austria must be withdrawn when the occupation of Austria ends...
...Khrushchev - Bulganin -Molotoy are sacrificing very little when they proceed to sell their Austrian war booty back to the Austrians for a substantial price...
...Are there not other gates to rapprochement and collaboration...
...Now the shoe is on the other foot...
...Since new ventures into Western Europe are almost out of the question today, Yugoslavia furnishes the best hope for Soviet expansion...
...Official Soviet sources always counted Austria as a "capitalist country" and not a "people's democracy...
...Hardly an article appears there now on American foreign policy without mention of "situations of strength...
...For the phrase, "situations of strength," has a familiar, convincing ring in Soviet ears...
...Nevertheless, the implications of an Austrian settlement are themselves far-reaching...
...Under the supervision of Soviet advisers, too, police forces on the pattern of the MVD have been organized...
...Here also lies the first basic difference between the Austrian and German situations...
...Yugoslavia has satellite troops on her northern and eastern borders...
...Since Stalin's death, Russo-Yugo-slav relations have improved...
...Soviet troops are no longer indispensable for the maintenance of their Communist regimes...
...From 1948 to 1954, a precarious balance prevailed as the two adversaries, unwilling to risk war, acquiesced in the status quo...
...Furthermore, Hungary and Rumania have bred their own forces in the eight years since the peace treaties were signed...
...it is "on its way to Communism...
...The glory days of rapid Soviet aggrandizement in Europe lasted from 1945 to 1948 and ended with the upheaval in Czechoslovakia...
...these constitute little menace to Tito's big army...
...Nor can we overlook the fact that, in the eyes of the Yugoslav leadership, the United States is an imperialist power of the most dangerous type, and that an alliance with Socialist Russia would be much preferred if only Moscow did not encroach...
...And there were moments between 1948 and 1952, as the Moscow-Belgrade feud progressed, when a Soviet attack on Yugoslavia was possible...
...New Western 'situation of strength' caused end of Soviet occupation The Austrian Treaty By David J. Dallin WITH GREAT indignation, the New Times of Moscow, mouthpiece of Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov, attacks "New York commentators" who maintain that recent Soviet concessions represent a withdrawal before the increased power of the West...
...The greatest political skill, endurance and patience will still be required to reach our goal of liberating Europe without recourse to war...
...If, on the Austrian pattern, East Germany were given back to an all-German, non-Communist government, it would mean a tremendous defeat for world Communism at a time when rank-and-file Communists (in Russia and elsewhere) assume that their party is still on the march and that new "victories" are imminent...
...But was it not a minority party under Lenin which exploited a "situation of strength" to take power in Russia...
...It has, of course, an excellent alternative: to sign new "mutual assistance" pacts with Hungary and Rumania, in which they would request "of their own free will" that Moscow keep Soviet forces in their territory...
...As a sign of its "understanding and friendship," Bul-ganin's regime would then agree to continue the present state of affairs...
...Moscow can withdraw its armies from Austria without loss of face, because it never set up a Communist "people's democracy'' there...
...But we would be blind to ignore the fact that Tito's Yugoslavia is today Number One on the Soviet roster of European countries to be courted, won and digested...
...If Moscow complies with the treaties, Soviet troops would withdraw from these countries within a year...
...This nervous Soviet manipulation of the American slogan is the first proof that Moscow has recognized the change in the European political climate—a change to its disadvantage...
...And was it not Soviet armed force, rather than any ballot, which turned a number of "capitalist nations" into "socialist republics" after the last war...
...The Soviet Zone of Austria was the only Soviet-occupied area in Europe in which no attempt was made to establish "socialism" and abolish non-Communist parlies...
...it spells the doom of any effort to expand Soviet areas, and the Soviet leadership knows it...
...They are now at the stage of diplomatic "normalcy," although adjustment has not gone beyond a modicum of politeness and some trade negotiations...
...Militarily, economically and politically, East Germany is firmly integrated into the Soviet bloc and forms its most industrialized wing...
...Hungary and Rumania, of 25 million...
...These do constitute a permanent threat to Yugoslav independence...
...Therefore, Soviet troops can be safely pulled out and kept in readiness on the Soviet side of the frontier...
...though often forced to obey Soviet orders, it consisted of Christian Democrats and Socialists...
...Nor was the Government under the influence of the Communist party...
...In the eyes of Soviet propagandists, "they"—the reactionary Americans —advocate "situations of strength" and base their policy on arms, while "we"—progressive nations—base our activity on the interest and true will of the people...
...Troops of the Soviet Army itself, however, are also stationed near the Yugoslav frontier—in East Austria, Hungary and Rumania...
...This 5-to-l ratio becomes ever more ominous to the Soviets as its potential power is developed...
...But it is not likely that Moscow will take this course...
...Under the direct supervision of Soviet officers, a new stratum of military commanders has been trained...
...The new Soviet moves to conclude an Austrian Peace Treaty reflect the new Western "situation of strength...
...the main reason is its relations with Tito's Yugoslavia...
...Can Yugoslavia not be detached from the West by obliging, conciliatory behavior on the part of the USSR and its satellites...
...So long as the West remained disarmed (that is, up to 1951), there was only contempt for Western "preachers of liberty" and "hypocritical" advocates of popular sovereignly...
...Our accent on elections, plebiscites, parliaments was "typical bourgeois propaganda...
...only a Communist party is legally in existence there...
...Austria has a population of 7 million...
...We observe with amazement how this concept wounds, irritates, excites Soviet writers and how they vainly try to answer it...
...The decade-long Soviet military occupation in Austria (marked, to be sure, by brutal police action, kidnappings and deportations) was distinct from the general type of Soviet occupation...
...Unlike the Communist parties of the satellites, the Austrian CP was not included in the Cominform at its start, nor invited to join later...
...If this is the case, then the first Soviet step in approaching Tito is to withdraw Russian troops from his frontiers...
...There is still another reason for Soviet withdrawal from Austria...
...Whatever Stalin's motives were in 1945 (the weakness of the Austrian CP was one of them), the Iron Curtain did not fall between the two zones of Austria, but between Austria and Hungary...
...These suffice to hold down "subversives" and convince the population that any move against the regime will be bloodily suppressed...
...Will Moscow comply...
...But Moscow's strategists realize that, of Europe's five great powers, only one constitutes the backbone of the Soviet bloc, while the other four—Britain, France, Germany and Italy—oppose it consistently, with the support of the United Stales...
...But it would be wrong to expect the Soviet regime to consistently withdraw its forces from other satellites and to retreat gradually into its borders...
...For this reason, Soviet withdrawal from Austria involves no great loss of prestige for world Communism...
...it is far wiser to do so now, independently, than to create the impression later that the Soviet forces withdrew under German pressure...
...their numbers will increase as time goes on...
...In the final analysis, the changing situation lies behind all these Soviet motives for a new Austrian policy: abstention from new adventures in Central Europe, kid gloves in dealing with Tito, recognition of the emergence of superior Western force...
...Before long, the first battalions of a new German army will arrive to man the Austrian border...
...There may be moments when the world will stand on the verge of the abyss...
...It is true that, of Europe's 500 million people, more than half live in Russia and the satellites...
...Acheson could not foresee the adverse popularity which his slogan has attained in Moscow...
...their armies, far beyond the size agreed on in 1947, are built on the Soviet model...
...America will gain no profit, says New Times, from its "policy of strength...
...It was Dean Acheson, President Truman's Secretary of State, who coined that phrase—the concept that we must "create situations of strength" in our dealings with the USSR...
...Stalin's methods of subduing satellites by harsh orders and pressures failed in Yugoslavia, and Moscow has absorbed this lesson...
Vol. 38 • April 1955 • No. 17
