Guatemala Exclusive: New Civil War Threatens

...The Junta has named Colonel Mar-, tinez, an ambitious man who reportedly aspires to the Presidency, to be chief of the Civil Guard...

...The establishment of political parties of every shade "even leftist and socialist ones" is desirable for the country...

...There are forces in Guatemala which want a dictatorship...

...His replies can be summarized as follows: Armas regards his regime as carrying on the revolution of 1944, since it "intends to realize what the Arbenz regime and the Communists merely offered demagogically...

...there is no censorship of the domestic press or of foreign newspapermen...

...For the moment, however, the Junta is showing itself fairly adroit perhaps not in ideological comprehension of Communism, but in political maneuvering of the orthodox Central American style...

...This may open the way for reactionary infiltration (which is already under way) and/or a new disguised Communist infiltration, aimed not at dominating the Junta but at pressing it to take reactionary measures...

...To sum up, the Junta can count for the time being on general, if passive, public support, on most of the press, and on the Army of Liberation (which has not been dissolved, despite what was said after the August 2 rebellion of the military cadets...

...Ranged against the Junta, though nominally obedient, are the commercial and landowning interests represented in the PUA and perhaps, ultimately, the regular Army and the cadets...

...5. The great enigma in the present situation is the Army...

...If these fail, they will not hesitate to resort to violence...

...It has appointed Colonel Jose B. Linares as head of the political police—a post he held under General Ubico...

...They will try to achieve it by political maneuvers...

...GUATEMALA EXCLUSIVE: New Civil War Threatens Right-wing pressure is mounting against the inexperienced Junta By Victor Alba Guatemala City Colonel Carlos Castillo Armas, head of the ruling Junta of Guatemala, does not look like a typical Latin American military man...

...promulgation of a Political Statute which, while guaranteeing basic liberties, suspends all political parties (since Arbenz's followers have already been suppressed, this is aimed at the PUA...

...The country may move once more toward dictatorship (led either by the present Junta, unwilling to be displaced but unable to resist right-wing pressure, or by Colonels Martinez and Linares...

...On the basis of conversations with Guatemalans as well as foreigners resident in the country, I would make these main points about the political situation: 1. The ruling Junta is subject to increasing pressure from the surviving elements of the Ubico era, the finqueros (big landowners), and the industrialists...

...It is difficult to say right now, but important events are clearly in the offing...

...In that case, the Junta would unquestionably be victorious, just as immediate elections would lead to victory for the PUA...

...Finally, it has suspended all trade unions which existed under Arbenz and confiscated their property, which the new union leaders demand for the recently formed Catholic and free trade unions...

...The big railroads and fruit companies have demanded repeal of this measure, preferring to deal with the old unions rather than negotiate individual contracts...

...A commission of experts is studying changes to be proposed in the contracts with foreign enterprises_including United Fruit...

...3. In recent days, pressure by the PUA and its supporting elements has increased, forcing the Junta to take measures which have been criticized by virtually the entire press...

...4. This suppression of the unions is extremely important...

...On the other hand, the same lack of political experience caused by the pre-1944 Ubico dictatorship which made Communist infiltration possible is evident among the Junta's following...

...The Guatemalan press, except for the independent Impartial, is now in the hands of young journalists, products of the 1944 revolution and antiCommunist, who strongly opposed Arbenz and are determined on no account to return to the Ubico days...

...Elections cannot be held until the Communist danger has disappeared, but "we have no tendency toward dictatorship...

...Will they succeed...

...It is therefore no exaggeration to say that a new civil war is brewing one between the partisans of dictatorship and bloody repression and the antiCommunist democrats...

...Whatever one thinks of the methods used to overthrow the Arbenz regime and Communist domination —and I feel personally that political action would have been more effective than military a journalist who has visited Guatemala, spoken to prisoners and interviewed liberal figures must report the following: There has been no brutal repression (apart from several executions in the first days), though there have been numerous arrests...

...The latter's case is now pending before arbitration tribunals...

...Guatemala has an Army of 4,000 men, with a disproportionately large officers' corps which is augmented each year by 20 cadets from the Polytechnic Military School...

...6. The coming weeks may well decide whether a stable government can be set up in Guatemala...

...Social legislation is to be maintained intact and administered "without demagogy...

...The Junta is surrounded by a group of young anti-Communists whose political ideas are rather vague, but who seem to be sincere in their opposition to any return to dictatorial rule...

...In order to counterbalance the political influence of the Army —whose ideological slant varies from day to day—the Junta has kept its Army of Liberation at Zacapa and Chiquimula, eliminating the foreigners and mercenaries while retaining the peasants who joined up in the early days...

...At the same time, the leaders and active members of the new antiCommunist unions are constantly dismissed from their jobs in order to block formation of the new unions...

...The principal ones are: promulgation of a new Agrarian Statute, giving the land to the peasants, in order to create a political base in the countryside...

...In giving complete ownership of uncultivated land to the peasants, the Junta wants to see that the latter are not subjected to political blackmail as was the case under Arbenz's agrarian reform...

...Public opinion, if not enthusiastic, is at least relieved and awaits events with a fair degree of confidence...

...A number of measures which at first seem reactionary are actually designed to block the influence of the extreme Right...

...Freedom of expression is complete...

...The Liberation Army is better armed than the regular Army and has modern airplanes...

...postponement of elections (ostensibly until the Communist threat has been overcome, but actually until conditions have been created for the normal functioning of moderate and leftist parties to counterbalance the PUA...

...mass arrest of minor Communists (especially peasant leaders), who are released at the end of a few days or weeks...

...If a political solution cannot be found for this situation which is today paralyzing the work of government, violence and a new civil war may erupt in Guatemala...

...On the other hand, the emergence of new political parties and trade unions may create sufficient stability to permit free elections...

...These groups, which organized under the Arbenz regime in the PUA (Party of Anti-Communist Unification), demand the following: complete nullification of the agrarian reform, prohibition of all trade-union activity, repressive measures against not only the Communists but all liberal elements and nonCommunist union leaders, establishment of censorship, and immediate elections...

...He was in civilian clothes, a little hesitant, almost timid when I spoke to him the first interview he had granted to a foreign journalist and I felt emboldened to ask increasingly frank questions...

...2. Lacking the support of any political organization, the Junta has had to resort to a number of seemingly arbitrary measures in order to resist right-wing pressure...