After Geneva
ABRAMOVITCH, RAPHAEL R.
AFTER GENEVA By Raphael R. Abramovitch Will the Communist victory set off a fatal chain reaction, as did Hitler's unopposed remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936? On June 18, 1947, the late...
...And they renounced, also, the right to allow foreign governments to establish military bases on their territories or even to become parties to a military alliance with other countries...
...They work night and day on three shifts, spending uncounted billions on bombs, guided missiles, long-range bombers and radar defense, training hundreds of thousands of young technicians, mobilizing to the last man all the available scientists and engineers, and employing a great number of foreign experts...
...It started the chain reaction which led to World War II...
...And then we would have to "go it alone"- In final surrender, with no war at all...
...How do you intend to come to our aid...
...Time works for the Soviets not because it favors Communism, but simply because the Communists work...
...All these questions are logical and pertinent...
...Would you stick it out to the end—or again become cautious at the last minute...
...Poland would have occupied Silesia, thus catching Hitler in a pincers: "but you did nothing and now it is too late...
...This may well be the case, although one can't be sure...
...Raphael R. Abramovitch, a leader of the Russian Social Democrats for five decades, predicted after Beria's fall that the "new look" in Soviet foreign policy would disappear...
...A few weeks later, Blum became Premier...
...According to such high U.S...
...He tried to sound out the feelings of the smaller Central European states allied with France in what was called the Little Entente: Czechoslovakia, Poland, Yugoslavia and Rumania...
...But we look in vain for a similar obligation assumed by the Vietminh toward the non-Communist and anti-Communist opposition parties on its own territories...
...But such was the popular mood in France that the Quai d'Orsay was flooded by protests...
...rightist organizations, especially those of a pro-fascist coloration, took a similar stand...
...We realized that a straightforward policy of honoring our word would be politically unpopular and might?still worse—involve us in a larger war...
...Thus, from the military point of view, South Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia will, in a short time, be defenseless against the steadily increasing might of the new Vietminh state, oriented toward and well equipped for further military conquest...
...Have a Policy...
...That was the day on which Hitler's troops occupied the left bank of the Rhine without meeting any resistance from the Western Allies...
...This military predominance was already a fact, as was admitted frankly by Premier Mendes-France when he explained to the French National Assembly that the only way to save the troops of the French Union from defeat and captivity was to sign an armistice by July 20...
...Eight or even four years ago, the danger of global war was almost nonexistent, thanks to the American atomic monopoly...
...military men as General Gruenther and Admiral Carney, we still have a technological edge, but we are approaching a danger point...
...At the same time, we concentrate on saving money, balancing the budget, cutting taxes and making life more pleasant for our citizens, in order to win elections for the ruling party...
...For it is obvious that the Communist bloc can always, by veiled threats and noisy demonstrations, create the atmosphere of a war danger...
...It became known later that Hitler had given the officers of all units marching into the Rhineland written orders to retreat immediately if they were confronted by French troops...
...They renounced the right to receive military aid, military materials or even instructors from foreign governments...
...Ho Chi Minh has already declared that the establishment of the North Vietnam state is only the first step...
...Thus, the entire system of European defense carefully prepared by France after World War I collapsed as a result of France's failure to honor her word and maintain the principle of common defense...
...Stalin and his henchmen were never the kind of people who were likely to commit suicide, which is what a war with the U.S...
...And he declared last May that the Unitcd States had no policy to slave off the approaching military disaster in Indo-China...
...that the demarcation line along the Seventeenth Parallel is, in the eyes of his regime, neither a border nor a strategic line...
...As I pointed out in a previous article...
...But no French troops appeared, and Hitler won his first big diplomatic victory...
...Albert Sarraut, then France's Premier, declared in a radio message on the morning of March 7 that the Nazi action was illegal and that France "would not tolerate'' a violation of the Versailles Treaty...
...when this happens, we have a right to retreat from obligations and commitments, then such alliances are worthless...
...Did not Secretary of State Dulles solemnly pledge never to permit Indo-China to be captured by the Communists, even if it became necessary to adopt the policy of "massive retaliation at the place and time of our own choosing...
...Sometimes we act as if there were no Communist danger, no real struggle for survival...
...The fact is that Communism's greatest victories have been achieved by military power, which makes its propaganda all the more effective...
...If you follow the Seventeenth Parallel to the East, you hit Manila and the Philippines...
...Blum declares that this day of March 7. 1936 was a milestone in both diplomatic and military history...
...Did not the United States finance the Indo-China war at a cost of a cool billion dollars a year...
...at some conference in Moscow...
...they asked, "since the Rhineland is already fortified by the Germans...
...no French troops were sent to the Rhine-land...
...That will be the last phase of the vicious chain reaction of defeat...
...Formally, this prohibition applies to both zones, the Communist as well as the anti-Communist...
...Capitulation —without your signature...
...and that the next step is the "liberation" of the entire territory of Vietnam...
...As General Gruenther put it in London...
...If the military edge we are said to still possess should disappear, we would have to face either a war without much chance of victory or survival, or the prospect of seeing one after another of our allies abandon the "lost cause...
...By money and arms alone—or would you fight by our side...
...I find a great similarity between the situation in Europe after March 7, 1936 and the situation created in Asia after Dienbienphu and the capitulation at Geneva...
...would certainly have meant at that time...
...we dodged it at the decisive moment...
...General Walter Bedell Smith was probably correct when he said, after returning from Geneva, that the clauses of the truce were the best that could have been obtained under the circumstances...
...while to the south lies Indonesia, with Sumatra only a few miles from the Malayan coast...
...The Asian nations know this, and some of them may even approve of our hesitation...
...Stoyadinovich told Blum that the old friendship between France and Yugoslavia could not be maintained intact because Yugoslavia now had to reckon with the growing power of the Third Reich...
...These answers cannot be based on the formula of all aid "short of war...
...But the situation began to change radically after the first Soviet atomic explosion...
...Delegation after delegation warned the Premier against "disturbing the peace of Europe" by sending French troops into the Rhineland...
...A joint delegation of Communists...
...Who can doubt that he will make extensive use of the well-established smuggling facilities along the Chinese border...
...Molo-tov has only begun his campaign for the European "security pact" which he intends to propose to the Allies...
...But there cannot be the slightest doubt that the main theater of Communist aggression will for some time continue to be Asia, with the terrible pressure of its growing populations and its permanently underfed millions, with nationalistic ambitions seething, with Communist dynamism immensely strengthened by its last victory over the combined forces of the white men's empires...
...This rank injustice was confirmed by the signatures of all the non-Communist participants at Geneva except the United States...
...But as a matter of fact the Little Entente no longer existed...
...Premier Sarraut gave in...
...I am not confident that time will be on our side' in three or four years...
...Having lost out in Asia, he hopes to win in Europe...
...He asserts that the occupation of the Rhineland helped create the Siegfried Line which isolated France from the rest of Europe...
...According to Paragraph 3 of the "Conference Declaration," the governments of Laos and Cambodia intend "to adopt measures permitting all citizens to take their place in the national community, in particular by participating in the next general elections...
...One after another, representatives of the Little Entente told him that France could no longer count on their support?simply because they saw no way in which France could help them if they were threatened by Hitler...
...confidence had been betrayed, a principle broken...
...The Asian nations know all this, and they know the reason behind it...
...But when we now try to form in Asia a system of common defense against Communist aggression, will not the nations we are inviting to join that alliance ask us just about the same question the dele gales of the Little Entente put to Leon Blum in 1937: "If we join the alliance and are threatened by the Communists, how will you help us...
...All the Central European representatives, Blum remarks, asked for arms ("somehow they imagined we had plenty, which was not true") ; they asked for money, "and we did what we could...
...The military clauses of the "Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities in Vietnam" are such as to assume the overwhelming predominance of Communist North Vietnam over South Vietnam...
...In this remarkable document, Blum entitled one chapter: "The Mortgage of March 7, 1936...
...but, in the territories dominated by the Communists, the foes of the Communist regime will remain illegal and persecuted...
...Since then, the gap between Soviet and American military technology has been gradually narrowed...
...But while fresh troops for South Vietnam can arrive only through the seaports controlled by the International Armistice Supervisory Commission, the Vietminh has a long common border with Red China, and entire divisions with cannon and tanks can still be smuggled across the frontier without the knowledge of the Commission...
...Let us note, further, that, according to the Geneva truce, the non-Communist governments of Laos and Cambodia assumed the obligation to maintain only such armed forces as are necessary for the defense of their territory...
...On June 18, 1947, the late Leon Blum, French Socialist leader, gave lengthy testimony to a special committee of the French Parliament investigating "the events in France from 1933 to 1945...
...This, to all practical purposes, means the legalization of the Communist party and its activities in Laos and Cambodia, and the safeguarding of its right to participate freely in general elections...
...But the military supremacy of the Communist Vietminh will increase with time, because of the clauses which forbid the introduction of fresh troops, arms and munitions, except for replacements (through rotating groups not exceeding fifty men) on a man-for-man basis...
...The New Leader, May 17), this premise nullifies any effective alliance against Communist aggression...
...The Polish representative told Blum that, had France entered the Rhine-land...
...Was that promise kept...
...A little later, Blum received almost the identical answer from the Rumanian Ambassador, who was also known for his Francophile sympathies...
...Does the U.S...
...The first diplomat to whom Blum talked was Yugoslav Ambassador Stoyadinovich, a personal acquaintance of Blum and a great friend of France...
...I am using the word "capitulation" not to place any moral blame on anybody but as an exact definition of what happened on the shores of Lake Leman on July 21...
...Socialists and trade-unionists even hinted at a general strike...
...By bringing the nation which could not and would not go on fighting in Indo-China a face-saving "honorable peace," he would strengthen his position to a degree which would permit him to push through domestic reforms and ratification of the EDC treaty...
...policy-makers would do well to have frank and honest answers ready before calling any conferences...
...Ho wrote that the Bermuda Conference was doomed before it opened...
...When a man is trapped in a burning house, he may prefer jumping out the window at the risk of his neck to suffocating in the smoke...
...If you retreated in Indo-China because of the danger of a larger war, would not the same consideration compel you to retreat again...
...Britain and America were likewise defeated militarily at Dienbienphu and diplomatically at Geneva...
...One can also be sure that they understood the real meaning of the political clauses of that agreement...
...And what will be the way out for us...
...One need not be a prophet to predict that within a year or two Asian Communism, by the combined application of military power, political pressure, diplomatic deceit and steady infiltration, will transform all of Indo-China, including Laos and Cambodia, into a Communist territory...
...In accepting with open eyes something he himself publicly deemed "cruel," Premier Mendes-France may believe that there will be some compensation for France and the democratic world as a whole...
...For it would be sheer self-deception to blame the Geneva capitulation on France alone...
...The remilitarization of the Rhineland was a flagrant violation of the Versailles Treaty, which expressly forbade this area to German troops...
...In other words, in the non-Communist territories the Communists will enjoy all political rights and will receive moral, ideological, organizational and material assistance from the Red countries...
...How can one know whether the danger of war is real or simulated...
...A new military power, the Vietminh, will have been created on the western shore of the South China Sea, encircling Thailand and part of Burma and bordering on Malaya...
...There is little doubt in my mind that the signatories of the Geneva agreement of July 21 understood this situation fully...
...This is certainly correct in regard to France...
...About a year afterward, Blum-then Vice Premier in the cabinet of Camille Chautemps—got an even clearer impression when he attended the funeral of Czech President Masaryk in Prague...
Vol. 37 • August 1954 • No. 31
