Editorial
EDITORIAL Why Did THEY Sign? It is easy to understand why the Western powers signed the Geneva agreements; as Raphael R. Abra-movitch notes (see page 3), the West was merely accepting realities...
...Although these constitute valid reasons for Communist caution, they do not offer sufficient grounds for Western optimism about future "coexistence" with Communism...
...Meanwhile, Soviet industry and agriculture disappoint all factions in the Kremlin...
...Any one of these steps would have complicated matters for the Communists...
...as Raphael R. Abra-movitch notes (see page 3), the West was merely accepting realities which had been sealed by French military defeat and the Anglo-American decision against intervention...
...The often frank "self-criticism" in the Soviet press reveals that labor productivity, as well as farm production, is sinking lower and lower...
...China's chronic economic woes have been only partially eased by Soviet aid, which has not lived up to expectations...
...5) the dispatch of French draftees to the front, already prepared by Premier Mendes-France, and (6) the risk that Washington's hot-and-cold strategists would blow hot again and expand the war...
...Peking's eagerness for Western trade, manifested often at Geneva, is an index of its economic peril...
...the execution of MVD official Ryumin, first attacked during the "Beria period" after Stalin's death...
...Indeed, some of the Pravda stories sound as if Russia has become one gigantic WPA project, with everyone on every level seeking any opportunity, no matter how fantastic, to boondoggle for his personal advantage...
...The Vietminh armies seemed in a position to score decisive new victories, if not to sweep all of Indo-China...
...Finally, as shaky as Russia and China may be, it is also true that the unity of the Western world has been grievously impaired, and that the leadership required to exploit Communist weakness by non-military means is notoriously absent...
...4) further steps toward true independence for Vietnam, heralded by the recent recall of the forceful nationalist leader, Ngo Dinh Diem...
...Soviet Russia is also in pretty rough shape...
...the recent demotion of such important generals as Lin Piao is but one stage in the process, which has been going on for some time and will continue...
...Communists do not normally act from a desire to please "bourgeois" governments...
...Had the Communists not signed at Geneva, they might have faced one or more of the following circumstances: (1) a firmer British policy, closely aligned with Washington's, toward Asian Communism...
...The more interesting question about Geneva is: "Why did the Communists sign...
...A war-to-the-death in Indo-China might have brought about just such a crisis...
...Both China and the USSR are up to their ears in political and economic troubles, which have been aggravated by the prolonged strain of the Korean and Indo-Chinese wars...
...Communist parties in Asia, Africa and Latin America are still working overtime to disrupt the growth of democratic institutions...
...And, despite the brilliant victories of the Vietminh, the Communist world is currently in no condition for new complications...
...To boot, the Chinese this spring suffered one of the worst floods in their history...
...Recent changes in the Army and the secret police continue to reflect this tension {e.g., the return to Air Force leadership of General Novikov, exiled by Stalin in 1946...
...This, as we know from history, is the sort of semi-conscious individual protest which can be galvanized by a real crisis into active national resistance...
...Secondly, Communism has many times proved its ability to run on two wheels...
...And so the prospect is that we will now, through East-West trade and similar measures, actually help the Communists surmount their present difficulties—meanwhile shutting our eyes (and our pocketbooks) to the dangerous global shifts in military power and political prestige...
...An uneasy tension persists between the Party apparatus headed by Khrushchev and the Government bureaucrats and industrial managers led by Malenkov...
...In the first place, all these strains have been intensified, if not caused, by the Western policy of political, economic and military resistance...
...Perhaps it was this appraisal of Western gullibility, more than any other factor, that led Molotov and Chou to sign at Geneva...
...With the aging Mao Tse-tung in poor health, Peking is witnessing the opening stages of the struggle for the succession...
...2) internationalization of the Indo-China conflict, already hinted at by Thailand's pending resolution for a UN investigation...
...the struggle in the Kremlin has not hampered the skilful diplomacy of Molotov and Chou En-lai...
...3) serious defections from the ranks of neutralists...
...While we can only guess at their precise motives, these would seem to fall into two categories—those arising from international conditions, and those related to conditions within the Communist bloc...
...The inefficiencies which plague Soviet industry have not prevented the development of hydrogen bombs, new guided missiles, or super-bombers...
...yet, world Communism agreed to a truce which delays for perhaps two years Communist unification of the territory...
...there must have been sound reasons for their cooperation at Geneva...
Vol. 37 • August 1954 • No. 31
