Notes on Geneva
DALLIN, DAVID J.
NOTES on GENEVA By David J. Dallin It is senseless to expect concessions from the Communists Before our eyes, a new Soviet satellite is being born in Indo-, China. We have seen all the previous...
...We should not forget that Stalin's successor, his pupil and squire for three decades, has absorbed his main teachings...
...the confusion which prevails on this point even among non-Communists leads to painful miscalculations...
...But this factor is constantly stressed in the press, while the role of power is undervalued...
...Unlike the Koreans, the people of Indo-China can choose only between becoming a Soviet-Chinese satellite or remaining a foreign colony...
...We listen to noisy "congresses" and hear the deafening drumbeat of resolutions and addresses in favor of the "popular movement...
...If we can consolidate real power in the Pacific, the Sovietization of Indo-China may yet be prevented and the new satellite may emerge still-born...
...Before any honorable armistice can be signed, Moscow and Peking must be convinced that there exists in South Asia a formidable force capable of inflicting telling blows, of turning war into victory...
...We have seen all the previous phases of its development: Japanese "liberation" of the French colony from the French...
...Rays of power paralyze the germs of criticism and resistance at their very roots...
...Day after day, these rays penetrate deeper and farther, engulf new provinces, embrace new groups of people and consolidate the "monolithic bloc...
...Under those circumstances, the Geneva Conference, convening as it does at the height of Ho Chi Minh's military power, is premature, to say the least...
...How many Communist leaders in Hanoi, Peking or Pyongyang must burn with indignation at the humiliating position of their party and country vis-a-vis the Kremlin...
...For these Soviet advisers have created the new Chinese, North Korean and Indo-Chinese armies...
...As a "great concession," "to meet the West half-way," Molotov may agree to cut Indo-China in two, keeping the larger, northern section in Communist hands...
...But power paralyzes feeling...
...Communist-led "liberation" from the Japanese...
...It is hard for Americans to understand the true relations of the master-planet and its satellites, of the Kremlin and its "sovereign" dependencies...
...How many among the rank-and-file feel profound disappointment...
...Why should Moscow retreat...
...We should restudy Japan's penetration into China??the small force needed to subdue Manchuria in the early Thirties and the multitude of Chinese collaborators (including some of the outstanding "leftist" leaders, who were blinded by Japan's slogan of "liberation of Asia from the imperialists") . Studying such phenomena will help not only scholars but political men, for power has a definite place in any concept of historical development...
...a military general staff in Mukden and Changchun, headed by a Soviet marshal, directs wars far beyond China's borders...
...The result is an atrophy of our own will-power: "What can you do against the political beliefs of millions of people...
...they see no way to extricate themselves from their new shackles...
...they will ask...
...Neither our newest slogans ("united action," "instant retaliation," etc...
...Where is their army...
...It is hard because only those who have seen it first-hand can appreciate the tremendous pressure exerted by a great industrial and military power upon its weak neighbor...
...this makes it necessary to have advisers with every Chinese general...
...We must learn something even from our old antagonist, Joseph Stalin, the cynical believer in the primacy if power ("How many divisions has the Pope...
...The Soviet delegation at Geneva will advance a simple, comprehensive program: withdrawal of all foreign troops from the soil of Indo-China...
...Only a regular collaboration with Russian advisers yields satisfactory results...
...Soviet, Czech and Polish arms travel through Siberia, Manchuria and China proper to reach Ho Chi Minh in Indo-China...
...As a matter of fact, Soviet military forces are stationed in Manchuria...
...We observe the large mass of attentistes, the "waiting ones" so typical of the pre-satellite era: thousands of men and women in mortal fear assuming a neutral or pro-Communist posture in anticipation of Communist victory and terror...
...We are not trying to minimize the role of ideological factors, of the community of belief which binds the Far Eastern Communist parties to the Kremlin...
...they have successfully poisoned the climate in France, spreading profound defeatism throughout the non-Communist ranks...
...The Geneva Conference is likely to drag out into another of those futile, dull parleys which have marked so much of our postwar era...
...the victories of Communist troops against weak, unwilling European forces...
...One important distinction between Indo-China and Korea must be borne in mind...
...But we learn nothing about arms, generals and detailed instructions from abroad, because the pretense of independence is essential to the making of a Soviet satellite...
...Neither useful nor harmful, they do not change a thing in international relations...
...It is unfortunate that so many Americans take this pretense for a reality...
...therefore, when the Communist armies attacked in 1950, South Korea was fighting for its own freedom...
...Unable to win the war under these conditions, France, it would seem, would rather cede huge territory to Peking than terminate her imperial rule...
...After seven years of bloody war, they have achieved important political as well as military goals...
...Their expert advice, one can be sure, is rarely disregarded...
...In every governmental agency, in every city, in every Communist military unit, the advisers are present...
...It will particularly disappoint those who expect significant concessions on the part of Moscow-Peking...
...And there is a constant radiation of power from the Asian borders of Russia??a radiation of plans, a radiation of orders, a radiation of will...
...nor our paper projects for a Pacific Defense Organization will impress the hard-boiled Soviet strategists...
...Unless we are prepared to cede Indo-China to the Communists, the Geneva Conference is doomed...
...Then, a conference will be due which could perform a useful task...
...Thousands of Soviet advisers, occupying the villas and palaces of the former "imperialists," receive salaries from the Chinese and Korean treasuries...
...This would repeat the Korean pattern, but in this case the Communist area would dominate...
...This is about as far as Molotov will go in the way of "concessions...
...Not only the North Koreans and the Vietminh, but Communist China, too, is dependent on Moscow for every essential move...
...To the weaklings among the Western delegates, the conferences serve as an alibi, as a proof of their willingness to sit around a table...
...We should recall, among other things, that all of huge India was kept a British colony by a trifling military force of 3,000 officers and 70,000 men...
...Long ago, the Soviets realized the importance of this adviser system...
...In Korea, liberation was achieved in 1945 and an independent republic set up, with international guarantees, in 1948...
...During the Borodin era of the mid-Twenties, the chief Soviet military adviser, Kisanka, reported to Moscow: "Chinese generals and officers are not only ignorant in military matters but also unstable in respect to other things...
...Since the defense of the remains of France's colony would be even more difficult than the defense of South Korea, the whole of Indo-China would soon become a satellite...
...a political general staff for the Far East operates under Russian leadership in Peking...
...Solution of Far Eastern problems must be prepared elsewhere than in conference rooms...
...This is tantamount to turning the country over to Ho Chi Minh...
...Why should the Communists make concessions...
...Indo-China, however, is still part of the French Union, in practice a French possession, and France is not prepared to free her...
...To the Soviets, they provide another chance to parade as "peace-lovers" against the "warmongers" of America...
...diplomatic recognition of the new "sovereign state" by Moscow and Peking...
...While accepting material help on a grand scale from the United States, she rejects truly international action against the Communist aggression...
Vol. 37 • April 1954 • No. 17
