The Stakes at Geneva
EDITORIAL
EDITORIAL The Stakes at Geneva The man whose picture graces our cover, Chou En-lai, is a man who can claim a victory from the Geneva Conference even before it has opened. One photograph of the Red...
...Even the French realize this would mean complete Communist victory in time...
...Partition of Indo-China...
...If this indicates the limits of Communist bargaining power, then Geneva will accomplish nothing...
...Any Asian considering long-term serious resistance to Communism must now think twice, because Communist recalcitrance now seems the only bar to Western rapprochement with Peking...
...While the spring rains inundate the Indo-China battlefield, the West will have to come up with an Asian policy...
...Armistice negotiations...
...in the opinion of many, Ho Chi Minh's party could either win such elections or emerge as powerful a minority as the Czech Communists did in 1946...
...If the Communists were old-style Machiavellians, they might be tempted to "trade" North Korea for Indo-China plus wonderful new grist for their "peace'' mill...
...Part of the answer is structural: Stalinist society, organized like a marching army, cannot tolerate retreats or peace settlements without inviting "demobilization...
...Having made their speeches, having delivered their confusionist proposals, Chou and Molotov will go home and allow the democracies to pick at one another...
...Demands for future conferences will certainly spring up...
...One photograph of the Red Chinese chieftain side by side with the representatives of democratic civilization in the historic Hall of Nations is a clear gain for the Communist aggressors and a blow to the free peoples who lie in their path...
...But the Bolsheviks are not cut of the cloth of Talleyrand and Nesselrode...
...To ask why the Communists are so terrified is not strictly relevant here...
...The key question in any speculation on Geneva is: How far will the Communists go...
...Part of the answer is historical: Since their defeat at the Russian Constituent Assembly elections of November 1917, the Communists have had a pathological fear of free elections...
...Few would fall for this old Red trap...
...But the Kremlin will not make such an offer, because free elections in Indo-China would invite free elections throughout Korea and would reopen the question of free elections in Germany...
...France's own deep political crisis forces Bidault to be receptive to almost any proposed settlement, the speeches of American officials notwithstanding...
...What can Chou propose...
...No matter what happens, the Communists will spread a great deal of defeatist and divisive propaganda...
...The one proposal the Communists could make which might confuse the West is free elections in Indo-China...
...The thought of Social Democratic meetings on the Oder terrified them then, and the thought of a free Korea a stone's throw from Manchuria and the Soviet Maritime Provinces terrifies them now...
...The diplomats will find that a lot more difficult than sitting at Geneva...
...At stake, therefore, at the Geneva Conference is the unity of the Atlantic alliance...
...A Ho Chi Minh-Bao Dai coalition government...
...Even the brave words of Ambassador Lodge against recognition of Red China would avail little if Chou En-lai could present an attractive enough package for an Indo-China settlement with a weary France...
...But, barring sharp new turns in events, the West will gain nothing at Geneva...
...And here, much as at Berlin, the basic intractability of totalitarianism is the main cause for optimism...
...despite the weakness and discontents of the democratic camp, the Kremlin cannot??for reasons of international charisma??afford to make truly significant concessions...
...Having already yielded, during the past year, to the Communist "trade offensive" (see Mary Francis Harvey's article, page 15), the Dulles-Eden-Bidault team would either be forced to retreat as a unit in the face of an attractive Chinese offer, or else disintegrate...
...The H-bomb question may be raised...
...Had they been, they would have tried harder at Berlin to "trade" rebellious East Germany for the death of EDC via a united, neutral Germany...
...Perhaps that is why David Dallin, on the next page, says that, basically, Geneva is "an alibi...
...A decisive Communist military victory in Indo-China might yet panic France into a hasty settlement...
...All these gambits, so well employed by the Communists in the past, have outlived their effectiveness...
...disapproval will not prevent France from accepting an offer it thinks viable...
...No armistice terms could satisfactorily cover a guerrilla war...
...and U.S...
Vol. 37 • April 1954 • No. 17
