Japan's Shaky Economy

...The Japanese Communists were barred, but all their front organizations were welcomed...

...A professor, an editor, an actor and a singer joined in calling for preservation of the Constitution, with its permanent ban on rearmament, and an appropriate resolution was sent to Premier Yoshida...

...Worst of all, popular faith in the democratic process was jolted...

...But if the present coal miners' strike continues much longer, the whole plan will collapse...

...Sohyo and the left-wing Socialists have also formed a popular-front organization called the "National League for Safeguarding the Peace Constitution" and comprising 134 labor, cultural and other groups...

...Against this background, the virtually Communist-dominated General Council of Japanese Trade Unions (Sohyo) has been staging a full-scale "winter offensive...

...They have thrashed out differences on the new budget and reached a compromise to pass the Government bill with minor face-saving changes...

...Sohyo's wage-hike offensive is rapidly approaching the limits of its possibilities...

...A constitution was adopted, and the founding congress is slated for the end of April...

...In the rail union, too, there are signs of spreading indifference...

...Gradually, however, the federation's leaders, led by Secretary-General Minoru Takano, transformed it into a political instrument of the Communist party...

...On February 16, the League held a "Save the Constitution" rally in Tokyo which drew 3,000 people, mostly Sohyo members and students...

...But now the Japanese economy is compelled to shift from spending to austerity in order to survive, and there is little margin for wage increases...

...The coal miners, who demanded an average increase of 4,000 yen last time, won only 200 from management...

...Japan imported $2.2 billion worth of goods last year $380 million more than in 1952...

...The "winter offensive" has been political in character from the very outset...

...This year, it was planned to cut oil imports by 1.5 billion liters in order to spare Japan's foreign-exchange reserves, with a 10-per-cent increase in coal production closing the gap...

...The new group's program is the same as that which Sohyo adopted at its inception four years ago...

...In an attempt to tighten the national belt, the Government launched a tight-money, balanced-budget policy last fall...

...rather, it wants to aggravate them in the hope of overthrowing the capitalist system...

...Mamoru Shigemitsu of the Progressive party lacks the charm and humor essential to a Japanese political leader...

...The miners are thus not only hurting themselves by reducing the industrial market for coal but are threatening the national economy...

...All this agitation was carried out under common slogans denouncing the "U.S.-dictated military budget" and attempts to amend the "peace constitution...

...Katayama, Kawakami, the left-wing Socialist chief Suzuki, and even the right-wing Socialist party's secretary-general, Asanuma, delivered speeches denouncing Yoshida and the "U.S.-dictated military budget...

...Then the coal miners, demanding a wage hike, launched a series of gradually increasing intermittent two-hour strikes: while the teachers' union staged meetings and petition drives against bills which would restrict political activity by schoolteachers...

...Prices have risen 56 per cent here since the outbreak of the Korean War, as compared with 10 per cent in the United States and 27 per cent in Great Britain...

...A continued rise in national consumption will necessitate further increases in imports...

...One political strike followed another, and the moderate President, Takeo Muto, was replaced by a pliant tool of the Communists...

...One constructive suggestion has been to convene a national economic congress, composed of labor and management representatives, to confer on vital problems of the shaky Japanese economy...

...The leftist labor federation is not interested in solving Japan's economic problems...

...In this situation, many miners are becoming disgusted with Sohyo's reckless leadership, and several locals have left the mine union...

...On March 1, Sohyo organized a rally in Tokyo to demand "overthrow of the scandal-ridden Yoshida Government...

...The newly-formed democratic labor federation, Zenro, must stand ready to embrace these disillusioned workers as fast as they turn against their pro-Communist leaders...

...Yet, most Japanese economists regarded even this small concession as unwise...

...Vital economic issues were quickly forgotten in the hubbub over the scandals, and the Government itself was endangered...

...In the face of these labor and Socialist attacks, the conservative parties have perforce drawn closer together...

...The coal miners' union recently rejected a mediation offer by the Central Labor Relations Board as "a wage-freeze scheme," despite the fact that opinion in Japan and abroad is largely agreed on the need for a wage-price freeze to curb the inflationary trend and encourage exports...

...A number of other leaders of the party's "butter before guns" wing have joined up, and it seems increasingly evident that the right-wing Socialists in Japan are now captives of their left-wing brethren...

...Both economically and politically, then, Japan shows many disturbing symptoms and too few signs of anything constructive...

...The disastrous 90-day coal miners' strike two years ago forced a number of industries to shift to oil...

...moreover, rightist politicians and ex-generals are to be found among the League's officials...

...A number of politicians, including Cabinet members and leaders of the Government parties, were accused of accepting bribes in connection with state subsidies to shipbuilders, and the heads of several firms were arrested...

...Most discouraging of all, this catch-all anti-rearmament, anti-American group has been able to get Tetsu Katayama, former chief of the right-wing Socialists, as its president and another right-wing Socialist as its general secretary...

...But who would succeed him...

...But when the regular session of the Diet opened in January to discuss Premier Yoshida's program, a tremendous political scandal suddenly erupted...

...All this would indicate that 1953 was a boom year for Japan...

...and liaison committees were established among the various unions and between Sohyo and the left-wing Socialist party...

...Coal is Japan's basic natural resource...

...However, the conservatives seem unable to unite on the issue of greater political stability...

...The resultant trade deficit ($951 million) was largely covered by U.S...

...But the price of coal here is two or three times higher than in Western countries...

...war procurement orders ($800 million...

...The meeting's chairman, right-wing Socialist Kawakami, warned that an attempt to "wreck" the Constitution would mean Japan's ruin...

...Continuing rises were feasible and reasonable in the inflationary period of the Korean War...

...Ichiro Hatoyama, leader of the Liberal splinter party, has long since been written off...

...Wage-earners' income rose 20 per cent and farm income 17 per cent over 1952, while retail prices in Tokyo rose only 7 per cent...

...But Sohyo's spokesmen were the first to reject the idea as a "capitalist intrigue...

...One hopeful aspirant is Deputy Premier Taketora Ogata, and Shinsuke Kishi, an influential Liberal politician, may be a dark horse...

...At the same time, her exports rose only $52 million, for a total of $1.2 billion...

...Other workers in Government and private enterprises initiated strikes and mass absenteeism in cooperation with the "big three" unions...

...Finally, the seamen's, textile workers' and other unions withdrew from the federation...

...Sohyo was originally organized from a number of anti-Communist unions in order to promote sound trade-unionism without a political tinge...

...Since the strike, industrial coal consumption has declined some 5 million tons, while crude-oil imports amounted to 5.3 billion liters in 1953...

...Local economists characterize the present situation as a consumption economy...

...The seamen's, textile workers', and stage and motion-picture workers' unions, together with some local coal miners' groups, which seceded from Sohyo last year, met last month with representatives of friendly unions to plan the formation of an "All-Japan Congress of Labor Unions" (Zenro...

...but the rest had to be made up from Japan's billion-dollar foreign-exchange reserve...

...The political scandals provided new ammunition for the leftist offensive...

...Strikes stirred up by pro-Communist unions are now proving very dangerous to Japan's Shaky Economy By Takeo Naoi Tokyo Japanese industrial and mining production increased 19 per cent last year, to reach 152 per cent of prewar...

...The railroad workers started out by refusing to work overtime (in protest against the discharge of a score of union leaders last fall for illegal activities...

...Because this affects the steel, chemical and other industries, and hampers exports, reducing the cost of coal is the vital first step in bringing down prices and revitalizing the export trade...

...The current scandals have greatly weakened Yoshida's position, and even in his own party there is considerable feeling that only the Premier's departure can bring a conservative coalition...

...At the last Sohyo congress, Takano described Red China and the Soviet Union as "forces for peace" and went so far as to reject the concept of a "third camp" position for Japan --a move which aroused serious misgivings even among left-wing Socialists...

...And, if this is not accompanied by increased exports, Japan will have to keep dipping into her precious exchange reserves and will face ultimate bankruptcy...

...Nevertheless, there is a hopeful side to the labor picture...

...But the boom was largely supported by a steep increase in imports...