Scelba's Stormy Future
STEVENS, EDMUND
Report from Italy SCELBA'S Stormy Future By Edmund Stevens Rome Premier Mario Scelba's middle-of-the-road Italian Government faces a stormy and uncertain future, even though it has squeaked...
...Under the cover of anonymity, quite a number of his own party colleagues might conceivably try to torpedo him...
...The men considered most likely to head up such a government are ex-Premier Giuseppe Pella and de Gasperi himself...
...It stands to reason that a government based on such an unstable equilibrium will probably proceed on tiptoe and will try to steer clear of controversial measures...
...There is more than just Parliamentary red tape behind this procrastination...
...Moreover, an alliance with the Monarchists would hopelessly compromise the Christian Democrats in the eyes of the working class...
...Given the proverbial slowness of Italian Parliamentary procedure, this makes it unlikely that EDC will come up for a vote before next fall...
...Discontent with the present combination is rifest within the Christian Democratic right wing, which pines for the days of the Pella Cabinet, resents the presence of the Social Democrats, and openly voices its preference for an alliance with the Monarchists...
...The problem is to choose the moment most propitious to the Center parties from the internal and international standpoint...
...Although the present government is pledged to support EDC, there is no indication that it intends to press for early ratification...
...Currently, a series of public scandals, into which names close to the Government and the Christian Democratic leadership have been dragged, have created an atmosphere that is favorable only to the extremists...
...Despite this strong counter-argument, and despite Party Secretary Alcide de Gasperi's public assurances that his party would stay loyal to the coalition, there is evidence of extensive backstairs intrigue aimed at replacing Scelba with a combination more likely to secure the Parliamentary support of the Monarchists, even if they do not enter the Cabinet...
...At the same time, more and more Christian Democratic leaders, including de Gasperi, are coming around to the view that early elections are both necessary and unavoidable...
...A coalition that included the Monarchists would produce far more stable government, even if it meant the simultaneous exit of the Social Democrats through the other side of the revolving door...
...While party discipline is almost certain to assure Scelba a majority on any open vote, as in the case of a motion of confidence, this does not apply in the event of a secret ballot...
...EDC was actually ready to be voted on when Parliament was dissolved...
...On the contrary, it appears that the Cabinet does not even plan to submit the required draft legislation to the appropriate Parliamentary committees until after the Geneva Conference...
...The Monarchists might throw their Parliamentary support to Scelba rather than face new elections in which they are sure to lose ground...
...To this the Christian Democratic Left, especially its trade-union wing led by Giulio Pastore, retorts: The recent gains scored by the Communists in local elections in the South were at the expense of the Monarchists...
...The immediate threat comes not from the Government's open and avowed opponents on the Left and Right, but from members of the Government coalition...
...The slightest defection could wipe out the slender majority, which is only 17 votes in the lower house...
...In the event of new elections, ratification of EDC would recede even farther into the future, since the entire process of drafting the law and referring it to committee would have to begin all over again...
...The Italians would doubtless have ratified EDC long ago had France approved it first...
...The argument runs: The Monarchists have 40 seats in the Chamber, the Social Democrats 19...
...Nor is much vigor likely as regards foreign policy...
...But the Italians do not like being stuck with lost causes, and they do not intend to get ahead of the French in the EDC tortoise marathon...
...Let it be recalled that Italy went through all these motions before under the previous legislature...
...Among other things, this will make it hard for Scelba to implement his constructive program of social reforms...
...this proves they are not an effective obstacle to Communism...
...Report from Italy SCELBA'S Stormy Future By Edmund Stevens Rome Premier Mario Scelba's middle-of-the-road Italian Government faces a stormy and uncertain future, even though it has squeaked through confidence votes in both houses of Parliament...
...They have, in fact, already indicated that they might back him on certain issues, though opposing him on the confidence motion...
...Rather than commit such a tragic blunder, it would be better to call for elections if Scelba's cabinet is voted down...
...Should the Christian Democratic left wing persist in its refusal to collaborate with the Monarchists, as seems likely, and should Scelba find it impossible to govern with his present slender and undependable majority, two possible alternatives present themselves...
...The first such opportunity will occur within the next few weeks, when the Chamber is called on to approve the budget...
Vol. 37 • March 1954 • No. 12
