Anarchy in the Arab World

...The prevailing opinion in Israel is somewhat pessimistic...

...The Communists, of course, are exploiting this anarchic state of affairs...

...The only thing that might cause a deviation from the expected pattern in Syria is Iraq's desire to unify the two states with Jordan...

...It would seem, therefore, that the West is not yet ready to profit by its mistakes and adjust its policies to the true situation...

...Their forces, spearheaded by several trade unions, and by lawyers' and students' organizations, played a prominent role in the Haleb, Horns and Damascus anti-Shishekly demonstrations which preceded the dictator's downfall...

...And the well-known British commentator W. Ewer, broadcasting over the BBC, gave a remarkable display of wishful thinking when he referred to Colonel Nasser as "level-headed and realistic" only a few hours after Naguib's deposition...

...At the moment, the only groups that could substantially change the situation in Syria are several small, independent left-of-center parties...

...Some of the old politicians and several military men are in favor of this "Great Syria Plan...

...As long as the Arab world lacks even a minimum of stability--the prerequisite for an alliance--little can be accomplished...

...While this is the view of most Israelis, right-wing extremists of the Herut are urging Israel "to use this historic opportunity to liberate the parts of Palestine still occupied by Arab forces...

...Their main tool is the Islamic Front, which is identical with Syria's branch of the Moslem Brotherhood...

...In Jerusalem, of course, the West's dilemma is considered more complicated than it really it...

...Unfortunately, however, they are held together by the ties of friendship between a few young intellectuals, rather than by a clear political program...

...Indeed, this objective is made easy by the fact that People's party leaders and Army commanders are not enthusiastic about supporting a strong Western orientation...

...If anything, they are looked upon as merely further proof that (1) the Arab League countries lack political stability, and the situation is not likely to change in the foreseeable future...

...The Syrian situation is fairly simple...

...In the United States, for example, newspapers and magazines have been picturing insecure Arab leaders as towers of strength and champions of liberty...

...Observers are only wondering who will liquidate whom first...

...Shishekly's regime was ousted by the Army, and it is safe to assume that the Army will continue to rule behind the scenes...

...We have no ambition to remain the only center of stable democracy in this turbulent area of constant strife and upheaval...

...He doubted that a lesson would be learned from the Arab revolts by those who need it most...

...They stand little chance against the feudal reaction headed by 78-year-old President Hashem Atassi, the officer's clique, and the ex-Nazis who lead the Communists...

...On the contrary, he said, one can expect the "price to be raised," while efforts to find stronger men will lead the West to stuff more arms into the powder keg...

...It is obvious, therefore, that Syria will soon be in the throes of a civil war...

...During the coming months, though, the old and discredited set of professional politicians who belong to the Sha'ab (People's party) will share power with the Army, as will the feudal landlords who have successfully prevented land reform...

...But it must be admitted that Israeli observers have been accurate in their predictions on the balance of power in the Middle East and the instability of Arab League governments...

...3) democracy, under present conditions, is out of the question for these countries...

...Time magazine recently described Naguib and Shishekly as "honest, progressive, level-headed, realistic strong men...

...Nevertheless, in an effort to start some kind of defense system, the United States will probably send arms to Iraq...

...Anarchy in the Arab World The recent coups in Syria and Egypt illustrate the basic instability which makes the Arab governments a dubious risk for the Western world By Mark Alexander Jerusalem The overthrow of General Shishekly in Syria, and the tumble and recovery of General Naguib in Egypt, did not come as a surprise to political observers in the Middle East...

...The right-wingers, headed by rich merchants from Aleppo, Horns and Hama, are opposed to the policies of the left-wingers, who are demanding agrarian and social reforms...

...It doesn't seem to realize that this will not prevent a new wave of unrest in Iraq, and that the arms may fall into the hands of those firmly resolved to use them against the West...

...Egypt is eager to preserve her dominant position in the Arab world, and will certainly take action to prevent the strengthening of her chief rival, Iraq...

...And while they are intensely nationalist and belong to the neutralist fringe, they at least support political and social reforms that could lead to a more stable and democratic regime...

...Others are opposed to merging the Republic of Syria with the two monarchist Hashemite states...

...It was perhaps best expressed by Pinchas Lavon, the Minister of Defense, who said in a recent speech that "entrusting arms to the Arab League governments is like giving matches to pyromaniacs...

...They include the Ba'ath (Renaissance party), headed by ex-Communist leader Michel Aflaq, and Akram Hourani's Republican Socialists...

...The Communists will also demand, and probably receive, a share of the state power...

...In both these areas, the British and State Department experts have miscalculated...

...and it 19 in the Arab League countries that the West hopes to form an organization that will close the Mediterranean defense gap...

...Actually, the junta is so utterly confused that it had to recall Naguib, whose slight personal achievements--such as his success in the Sudan--have made him popular, to hold the torn Government together...

...As might be expected, the Communist influence in Syria is now strong enough to thwart any tie with the West...

...Thus, it is likely that a struggle will develop between the old politicians and the Communists...

...The latter is headed by Muhamen Mub-barak, Dr...

...It should be remembered, too, that Syria's last parliamentary government was headed by the ex-Nazi agent Dr...

...2) their natural foreign political orientation--indeed, the only one--is neutralism...

...Nevertheless, Westerners may be puzzled by the recent Arab outbreaks...

...As usual, however, these hysterical demands are receiving little support...

...It is significant that a quarrel started between the various groups that collaborated in the coup only a few hours after Shishekly's overthrow...

...Western statesmen might just as well not waste their time trying to formulate agreements...

...Western experts, however, do not seem to realize that Arab League countries cannot support the West, regardless of how much they are wooed or the amount of men and arms poured into them...

...At the very least, it will remain an important factor in Syrian politics...

...The fall and rise of General Naguib has put the country in an uncertain state...

...Major Saleh Salem is another contender for first place in the regime, and a coup d'etat engineered by him would not surprise anyone here...

...But what can be expected to happen in Egypt, Syria and the other Arab League countries...

...When this results in a permanent crisis, the Army will have to intervene to prevent complete anarchy and the whole cycle will begin anew...

...Ma'arouf Doualibi, now the Number 1 Communist in the Levant states...

...These events, and the present Government crises in Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan, are considered a natural result of unstable conditions in the Arab world...

...Should the pro-unity forces gain favor, it would mean trouble in the Arab League...

...The situation in Egypt is not so predictable...

...Past experience has shown that they will be annulled following the murder or ouster of yesterday's strong man...

...The West's desire to close the Middle East defense gap is natural and just...

...Within the People's party, a rift has also developed...

...The old politicians demanded that the Army withdraw from politics altogether, and relations between the two are still strained...

...The Arab League, after all," he concluded, "is the creation of the West, and one generally fails to find fault with one's own creation...

...In fact, Prime Minister Moshe Sharett made the Government's position clear last week in a speech to the Knesset: "There is no joy in our hearts at the sight of this anarchy and confusion, the endless intrigues and constant shiftings, the utter lack of certainty as to what tomorrow might bring, the naked competition for power, the alternation of sham parliamentarianism with brutal military dictatorship...

...Nor is this the only cleavage among members of the ruling junta...

...Moreover, the present uneasiness between Colonel Nasser and Naguib cannot continue for very long...

...Doualibi and other ex-fascists who have transferred their allegiance to Moscow...