25,000.000 Germans Too Many Morgenthau's Plan Means Economic Disaster to Europe
Jasny, N.
25,000.000 Germans Too Many Morgenthau's Plan Means Economic Disaster to Europe By N. Jasny Expert on Agronomy and Economist MORGENTHAU'S idea- he calls it a plan—might be good, except that in...
...The territory and population of future Germsny, as shaped in Potsdam, differ from those assumed by Morgenthau...
...T»« ¦owners' Second Um of Defense [ThERE Is one clause in the new Bill which has created a stir...
...Even more important is the decision to continue and expand the wartime "regional organization" of industry, formerly under the (now defunct) Ministry of Production...
...There will be little change in the Bank's normal activities...
...that the ether industries supply materials and services to the heavy industries...
...tk* Labee Government ha* iatre-jjr-i ita first Socialist Hill that <•* y^^.ity the Baak er England...
...One will need patience to wail until the Germans have changed their climate by splitting the atom or by other means...
...Though he can be called a left-winger, he Is not asaoeiated with any >f the left-wing cliques...
...At the end of SO years the Government wul ess* the right to redeem the stock St its nominal value...
...The fact that he has sasde no changes in his proposals indicates that in his opinion hie plane remain workable...
...But practically all forests are on land which is unsuitable for agricultural purposes...
...As elsewhere, large landowners in Germany keep less livestock per acre than small farmers...
...Imagine Brit.in importing all products ef heavy Industry aad exporting farm predaets...
...Which raw materials...
...For this purpose Britain was divided into eleven Regions, each under a Regional Commissioner...
...Dock workers are striking in a number of British porta...
...A combination of extremely low ntandardn of living with a fabulous productivity of the land is s goal as yet not resrhed anywhere...
...This is a step towards a joint control of industry by tripartite bodies...
...He Is one of the hopes of international Socialism...
...So he learned German instead...
...Even thin in only two-hfths of what is needed according to his own computations...
...Morgenthau displays a lot of optimism with reference to the agricultural possibilities of Germany...
...He spent his evenings reading books from the public library, particularly language self-educators...
...But the most optimistic German computations do not go above 2,600,000 acres of wssteland which can be reclaimed with much labor and considerable investment of imported goods and only over a period of years...
...When the prewar level of production is reached Germany Is likely to have more people to feed...
...ran be reached froas another angle...
...This raises the number of farms which ran he created from the land now in large estate with more than 250 acres in agricultural use to about 600,000 with almost 2,000,000 people...
...Creating anything like 2,500,000 new farms, putting on the land an additional 10,000,000 persons or more, would require an agrarian revolution of a much wider scope thsn that in Russia in 1917-18...
...As the Bank has paid an arrrage dividend of 12 percent Uiii ¦nana that the shareholders will get deck at a nominal value four times as high Us their share capital...
...Morgenthau imagines that the elimination of all heavy industries will not affect the other industries at all...
...It could not be otherwise in a country more than 2,000 years old, with all the arable land utilized as the population has grown...
...But on pages 62-63, where future imports snd exports are discussed, no provision is made either for such imports or for exportable goods to pay for them...
...hie preposa/s mrt nut workeble oflgavay...
...Morgenthau also mentions forest land...
...His father waa killed in the first Woi Id War, leaving a widow with eight children...
...By ignoring the fact that most workers in the heavy industries are adult men, and by disregarding the partial dependence of all other industries, transportation and services on the heavy industries...
...And the Government is already trying to breach this aeeond line...
...As President of the Board of Trade (i.e...
...He has appointed "working parties" to make proposals for the reorganization and modernization of certain key industries--the cotton, pottery, hosiery industries...
...Thin means that import requirements for food will be much greater than Morgenthau assumed...
...The Bill ia interesting because it gives ta insight into the methods which the I^bw government are likely ta use in adwr cases...
...There were less than 11,000,000 acres of land in agricultural use in farms having more than 250 acres of such land in all of Germany in ,193...
...It gives the ¦Ink of England the right to collect in-frrmstion from the other banks, to make "eommendations to them and, if tho frfweury requires It, directions...
...Csocboslovahia, with a fairly well-developed heavy industry, had 291 persons per square mile la 1M7...
...This work waa formerly shared between the War Office and the Foreign Office...
...25,000,000 Germans Too Many a great shortage of capital, especially livestck, and would not be able to produce as much as the large firms did...
...it has always worked in close cooperation with the Government...
...At .irst the owners resisted...
...Hence the elimination of the heavy industries alone would release far more people than the 5,000,000 workers and 10,000,000 of total population, assumed by Morgenthau as released from all sources...
...Division ef Lnree Mmt*)% WhERE will the land come from for all these new farms...
...He is responsible for the a-l ministration and surveying of certain Crown Estates in England...
...The building workers can no longer work overtime...
...What will tht worktrt of th* prohibited induetrie* tfi> in Ihe mean timet Thue the result of the resettlement proposed by Morgenthsu would be the impoverishment of millions of new fanners...
...But those of them who used to work on adjacent large estates will be unable to make a living unless given part of the estate land...
...Meanwhile the Bank will pay the Stats each year a sum out of its profits sufficient to mane the State to pay tho I percent interest The ssosias Board of Directors is «» he replaced by a new Board ep-jMtinted by the Government But it is expected that Lord Catto, the Scottish financier who last year succeeded the famene Montague Norman as Governor, will retain his job under tho Treasury...
...Actually, even the 14,000,000 who would be settled on the land under Morgenthau's plan would represent an addition of 140 percent to the approximately 10,000,000 people living on farms in the diminished Germany (perhaps 11,500,000 in Morgenthau's Germsny...
...equally significant that thit it th* one clause which tkt Con*ir*ativt* are esfferi...
...This would increase the total agricultural production of Germany by only 2 percent...
...The demand for the goods and services of light industries would not l>.- improved by this migraton to the land...
...There only the larger peasants had to suffer curtailment of their land holdings...
...Cotton...
...John Hynd PrIME MINISTER ATTLEE has established a new Government Office to deal with the administration of the British Occupation Zone in Germany and Austria...
...A farm is an enterprise whose owner derives his principal income from it...
...of hew to compensate the .-« areeriated capitalists are not clear...
...Later he became a railway clerk and an official of his trade union...
...The very strenuous efforts of the Hitler regime to reduce Germany's dependence on imported food reaulted in sn increase in per capita production by only 1.5 percent per year...
...In Germany tha redistribution of the lend would have to affect the average farmer...
...Even with all that taken into consideration, an Increase ef 6 to 8 percent of the total agricultural production seems the limit ultimately attainable from this source...
...25,000.000 Germans Too Many Morgenthau's Plan Means Economic Disaster to Europe By N. Jasny Expert on Agronomy and Economist MORGENTHAU'S idea- he calls it a plan—might be good, except that in the Germany he designs there sre 26,000,000 Germans too many...
...He also helped to build the workers' educational move— m-ot When he found time to attend evening classes in French he discovered h« already knew moat of what waa taught there...
...In each region meetings of the workers, management and government were convoked regularly to ileal with increase of munitions productions, to air grievances and discuss improvements...
...He may be right in leaving everything as it was...
...This means that the days are shorter...
...Migration or no migration, Potsdam Germany will produce less food for many years than was produced l>«fre the war...
...Meanwhile the Government, anxious not to let reconversion degenerate into a struggle of every man for himself, has kept a firm hand on the controls...
...Rubber...
...As this sum has to be paid by the taxpayer it will depend on the taxation system of 1965 bow far the capitalist class will have to finance its own ex-pro eriation...
...He also entirely neglects to provide land, or other occupation, for the people now living off the large estates as permanent . workers or employees...
...The inevitable conclusion, that there is no room in the agricultural economy oi Potsdam Geraaeny for 25,M0.M» new rural dwellers, or even for I :>.ooo.OOO...
...Reconversion and ihe Strike Wave T IHE change-over to peace conditions in Britain is as full of problems aa elsewhere...
...With the territory assumed by Morgenthan, his se'"-m« has rt ro-im for 15.000,000 to 20.000,000 Germans...
...Morgenthau mentions wasteland...
...He mistakenly assumes that the labor force in agriculture will increase by 55 percent and the number of farms by 77.6 percent...
...Morgenthau forsees furthermore that Germany will have fewer writers, lawyers, teachers, engineers, waiters, taxicab drivers, and so on, due to the lowering of the living standards of all Germans...
...What it comes te ia this: both Labor and Conaarvatirrs reckon with the possibility of a showdown between the Labor Government and the City, some time...
...that the needed imports of raw materials and other goods will also be larger...
...Everybody is in favor of liquidating the large estates, especially the Junkera estates, because of their dangerous political influence, but not because they represent "the most ineffcient form of production" or because they are "backward in their farming" and "rather primitive in their technique.' Morgenthau even speaka of "the frequently inefficient and archaic German farming methods.' Actually the large estates obtain higher yields per acre and per animal than do the small farms, although the achievements of the latter also are good as compared with farms in other countries with comparable physical and economic conditions...
...However, a 20 percent increase in value of the product per acre over that obtained from the same land by the large landowners is the limit...
...This makes the omission of raw materials among the goods which have to be imported by Morgenthau not just an oversight There would obviously be no means of paying for imports of raw materials and other goods, if Germany is compelled to import all the needed products of heavy industry rather than to cover by exports 60 percent of her imports...
...The new 12-acre farmers would be unsble to compete with the others...
...They want their loss made up by a wage increase...
...For example, on page 71 of bis 1«n'k he provides for a textile industry with 1,060,000 workers, for a nstural-rubber industry with 50,000 workers, for sawmills, furniture and wooden goods factories with 610,000 workers, and sev-ersl other industries, all of which depend fully or partly on imported raw materials...
...Morgealhaa's book wan published after Potrdam...
...Indeed, several yearn will pass before even the prewsr level of production on existing German farms has been restored...
...He forgets that the heavy industries use most of the mined coal...
...The figure risen to 25.000,000 nr more If the Potndsm decisions are carried eat...
...But tin: Minister holding this job is usually principally concerned with special duties assigned to him by tho Government Hynd has until now acted as a British liaison man with UNNRA...
...i.e., in future Germany, if no further partitions are decided upon...
...The strikes are "unofficial" and were started againat the will of the i"LMilar trade union officials...
...Let Them Rmhm fotofoe...
...The expanding of the present land in agricultural use by improving wasteland and deforestation may turn out a more important source of additional production than the farms on the former estate land, provided the little matter of coat is entirely disregarded...
...the writer hesitates to state, bnt certainly it is at least one quarter of it...
...As for Ihc millions of new dwarf farms, created almost overnight from the large estates for years they would suffer from The British Experiment labor Government Tackles Nationalization...
...What is new hi that ha eaae of a crisis, of a real ceelirt of interest between the Government and the City (the English equivalent of Wall Street), the policy ef the Hank will be decided in the last resort not by a group of shareholders but by the State...
...The only important source of new farms is the land now in the large estates...
...It would be advisable to consider the consequences of such a revolution...
...The man witfc *100 in shares used to get a diviand of 412...
...Morgenthau's solution is to put 6,000,-000 additional workers on 2,500,000 new farms...
...Though he is not yet well-known to the public at large, it may be that Attlee made one of his beat appointments when he put the problem of the reconstruction of Germany into the hands of the young "Chancellor of the Duchy...
...In 1944 he was elected to Parliament...
...Exports of food from niicli a densely populated country cannot be seriously considered...
...Morgenthau overlooked the fact that 80 percent of the workers in the heavy industries in Germany are men over 16 years and represent almost as many families...
...Hew large this part ia...
...This organization which in the war dealt with armaments only will now include most industries...
...Such high living ntsndards as those enjoyed by the farm population before the war are in fart prohibited by the Potsdam declsrs-lion...
...The City's first line of defense, the Bank of England, has fallen, the elections have decided that But the Conservatives defend mora bitterly their second defense line, the private banking corporations...
...Reconversion Problems By Friedrich Scheu New Leader London Crrespondent THE British Experiment is under way The sew I'arlLement hm ,to/ted its first legislative inssiin...
...There are rumblings in other trades...
...This immense role of the heavy industries in the foreign-trade balance of Germany raises the importance of the removal of those industries far beyond their quantitative share in the German economy...
...that the people dependent on the heavy induatriea pay for their housing, clothing, and all ether consume™' goods and for services almost entirely out of the proceeds of the heavy industries...
...In a mistaken attempt to return to normality the Government re-introdneed Greenwich Time...
...Thut tkt number of farms would have to be almost trebled to realize Morgenthau't uiehei...
...It is characteristic **»t the Government considers it neces-JJ*I to insert this clause mto the Bill...
...In fact, the Potsdam declaration Is inrorporsted into it to demonstrate the similarities that Mor-genthna believes it haa with his proposals...
...Tho *»nk of England and the great joint-¦*** banks have In the past worked in eloseet friendship...
...little more than half of this land was located west of the Oder-Neisse line...
...Each 'working party" consists of an equal number of representatives of the workers and the managements, and a number of government representatives, engineers, scientists and the like, under a government official as chairman...
...Morgenthau, however, at once drops all owners of less than 6 acres, whether dependent on work on large estates or not...
...Products of heavy industries, a little food of the kind that cannot be grown in Germany, and rather large amounts of nitrates and phosphates are the only goods which Morgenthau would permit Germany to import...
...Farmers on deforested land may also need subsidies for yean—to compensate for the low fertility of the soil...
...In the borderlines and with the population transfers decided upon at Pntsdam, prewar Germany would have been dependent on imports for about 40 percent of her food rather than the 1H percent estimated by Morgenthau for his Germany...
...Bnt the general arise...
...the holdings of average peasants remaining untouched...
...The now Department is in charge of John Itynd, 48-year-old Scots railroad clerk, who is s member of the Labor Cabinet as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster The "Chancellor of the Duchy" ia not exactly a Minister without Portfolio...
...At four persons to a family, this would add about 10,000,000 to the rural population...
...Eventually the will be able to export [agricultural] produce to her neighbors and grow rsw material for the products of her light industries...
...atiacfcinj...
...All during the war Summer Time had been observed during the Winter to increase the number of daylight working hours...
...This means that the Government may have to pay a lump •ass of about *»,000,000 ($232,000,000...
...There they lodged their protest against the loss of wages caused by Britain's return to ordinary Greenwich Mean Time...
...Morgenthau reduces the number of families to be settled on farms to 2,500,000...
...Still, It is a significant beginning...
...So John at 13 became a butchers' errand boy...
...But even if all these people disappear, the land in the large estates is insufficient for the Morgenthau's purpose...
...that a large part ef the goods transported en railwaya and waterways consists ef materiala for, or producta of, the heavy industries...
...No compensation would be made for the losses suffered by the destruction of heavy industry...
...Slightly built and unassuming in manner, Hynd, through his linguistic abilities and his interest in foreign affairs, haa proven very useful to Britiah Labor...
...Labor Minister George Isaacs' promise to have 3.000,000 men and women (out of a total United Kingdom force of over 5,000,000) demobilized by June 30, 1946, has somewhat cleared the air...
...A wave of strikes is sweeping the country...
...Curtailment of consumption must result...
...MoRGENTHAU proposes that heavy industries (metal, chemical, and electric industries) should be completely forbidden in Germany...
...Even in her former boundaries there were in Germany only 2,100,000 farms of this type...
...There will be about 10 percent less arable land and about 17 percent more people...
...This is the reason that the author acrsmbles from one contradiction to another...
...Many of those small landowners do not need additional land urgently, because they depend on their land only as an auxiliary source of income...
...Within the borders sgreed upon at Potsdam, there will he about 1.14.tot square miles, with a popula-tiM of a boat 7A.MO.0M...
...The majority of those formerly employed in heavy industry would he deprived of a means of livelihood...
...Morgenthau believes that the land in large estates, "suitably divided, would enable hundreds of thou-aands of peasants who own less than five acres to have enough to utilize their labor productively...
...Its committees will, however, have only advisory powers...
...Doaasark had 22* The Potsdam aoctaeesni raise Germany's aesnatty ef population te that ef the United Kkog-does, 449 persona per aamare mile In 19S7...
...But Morgenthau allows only 12 acres to each new farm...
...It creates a territorial network while the working parties spsn Britain industry by industry...
...Hence the proponed operstion would mean the creation of perhaps -S^OO.OOfjl new farms with a corresponding number of families, a total of some 14,000,000 people...
...These industries employed over 4,000,000 workers in 1939, when a large part of their output was destined for war...
...and that provision has to be made for a corresponding increase in exports to pay for the imports...
...Provided adequate outlets for animal products are available, these farms may ultimately *after many years—exceed that level...
...When expanding markets for animal products are available, the conversion of large into small farms leads to increased production of these products...
...Is this way the small farmer may even overcompensate in total income per acre fol his smaller yields per acre and per annual...
...or f 15 per square mile...
...the typical small farmer who obtains his income from farming handles 25 to 86 or even 50 acres in areas where the larger farms are located...
...During the war he made many broadcasts to the German workers maintaining a firm internationalist and progressive line...
...But they have finally agreed to join these "working parties...
...John Hynd is a name to remember...
...Careful computations show that after provision is made for the estate workers and adjacent small farmers, subdivision of large estates in Potsdam Germany into farms of reasonable size (about 35 acres on the average) provides room for some 160,000 new farms with 600.000 people...
...He will now have ?400 in stork and receive S percent interest: emWtf...
...It is noteworthy that, in addition to covering all domestic needs, the heavy industries provided not less than 60 percent of exports...
...It is revealed that the 17,000 shareholders of the Bank of England will get fererneseat stock at 3 percent interest, far the next 80 years they will receive a tied ansa of interest each year calculated ta equal the average dividend they have received from the Bank during the iast 10 years...
...Three days ago the building workers engaged on bomb repairs in London downed their tools for an afternoon, assembled in Hyde Park and marched to the Ministry of Health in the Whitehall government quarter...
...It ia onscially proclaims I dart the Bill creates no precedent, and that the earners of concerns less ethci catly managed than the Bank may get Jan compensation...
...Those efforts included such measures an very high prices and large profits to the producers which a poor country such an the future Germany can ill afford...
...There are signs of widespread dissatisfaction shout the tempo of demobilization...
...The heavy industries, with all that is dependent on them, represent net junt <«00,00« workers but a very substantial part of the whole German economy...
...Minister for Commerce and Industry) Sir Stafford Cripps has introduced two important measures...
Vol. 28 • November 1945 • No. 44
