Stalin in the Far East
NICOLAEVSKY, BORIS I.
Stalin in the Far East When Will Russia Declare War on Japan? By Boris I. Nicolaevsky On Thursday, April 6, at 8 p. m. Moscow time, MoJotoT summenod the Japanese Ambassador, Naotaka Sato, and...
...From the point of view of military technique and naval .strategy this performance is a miracle, and at present the occupstion of the main Japanese islands by operations conducted from the ocean does not seem impossible...
...their behavior ia becoming an outright scandal...
...Tho connection between the two events is beyond doubt, but it is in contrast with whst ia often assumed, it was the news about this resignation and about the formation of a new government willing to go to greater lengtha to obtain peace, that prompted Stalin to speed the denunciation in jrder to have a free hand in case Jspan makes a determined move for peace...
...An important rots wss assigned in this comment to the gag...
...The situation in the Fsr East is very intricate, and Molotov's last note has by no means simplified it...
...This is whst creates tho greatest trouble among the Allies, and this ia what above everything else eadangera their relations in the future...
...Their objective it ia tup Chiang Kai-thek't power from within, all the while keeping their own army ready for s future civil war...
...The Soviet press is busy paving the way for Ibis move, which is also assiduously supported by...
...Today Japan is very much alive to this threat, an I therefore thinks of nothing but peace...
...Yet only those who are unaware of recent history csn assert that Stalin is always loyal to hit stipulations...
...As a matter of fact, Stalin already denounced the Pact when he agreed in Yalta to sit...
...fellow travelers...
...Chiang Kai-shek Is Stalin enemy No...
...The need for denouncing the Part flowed from Japan's deteriorating military situation...
...The more so since the . tremendous losses suffered by Russia in this wsr make it hard for her to take part in another big war...
...Tin Office of Censorship in Washington wsrned the pitas that speculations about the Soviet intention to attack Japan, "however erroneous they might prove te be, could possibly lesd to a Jspsnese attack on Russia...
...Experts were already figuring the strength of tat Red Army in ths Far East, greatly exaggerating it (an army 8,000,000 strong wss visualized...
...But the Rod Army itself will probably not be thrown into battle before ths last moment, when the time is rips to occupy the Chinese territories coveted by Stalin...
...This writer predicted in The New Leader, on Msrch 16, that the event wss a certainty...
...They brand as enemies of internal uniity in China all those wh demand that they submit to tho All Chinese government...
...But he is not going to stand aside when the division of the "spoils of wsr" taxes place...
...In his note, Molotov emphasized that the Soviet Government acted in accordance with the provisions of the treaty, and continued to acknowledge its validity...
...It is of course difficult to say when this is going to happen...
...They can, of course, be postponed...
...The latter apprehension can hardly be taken seriously: today Japan is not in s position to hazard such saw Ventures...
...Hut one thing it certain: the more speedy the defeat of Japan, the nearer her capitulation, the tooner will Stalin act...
...The latest pronouncement of this kind was mads by Ralph Parker in'Ms cable which appeared April 15 in I'M...
...It appears now that even after the loss in 1941-42 of all its insular bases in the Asiatic part of the Pacific, the United States, in a short 15 months, traveled all the way from Guadalcansl to the shores of the Jspsnese islands...
...The Communists claim a considerable number of key posts in tho All Chinese government, but are unwilling to subject their ministers to the control of tho government They are particularly anxious to avoid any control over the party army...
...Tola conception of Stalin's motives is confirmed •>r the circumstances connected with Molotov's Somo sapors wrote thst the Jspsnese Gov- . *r>—»t crisis waa a result of the denunciation of ,h* *a*L A simple juxtaposition of dates shows lk,t this opinio, ia wrong: Molotov's meeting with the Jspsnese Ambassador,' Naotaka Sate, took place OM Thursday, April 5, at 8 S. S, while Koiso tendered hia resignation on Wednesdey, April 4, st 9:30 p. at.—both New York time...
...It is this Communist claim that Stalin is going to support with the whole weight of his international authority...
...This means that the Soviet Government considers itself bound to refrain from active steps against Japan until April 24, 1948...
...And yet exaggerated ideas about the role which Soviet Russia may play in the further development of tho war against Jspan can lead to unpleasant sequels...
...A martial move may also come from the "Independent People's Republic of Mongolia...
...Her statesmen are now fully occupied with the problem of how to drag her out of her plight, ths result of her former adventures, with the least possible loss...
...With Japan nesring unconditional surrender, n'» policy toward her will Increase in sharpness...
...The headline In the paper gave a correct interpretation of the leading idea of the dispatch: "Soviet Attitude on China Puts Internal Peace First" The relationships between Chiang Kai shek and the Chinese Communists have boon of a rather involved nature, but Communist demands have become clarified...
...By Boris I. Nicolaevsky On Thursday, April 6, at 8 p. m. Moscow time, MoJotoT summenod the Japanese Ambassador, Naotaka Sato, and handed him the Soviet Gov-j$m*r>'" MM denouncing the Pact of April IS", 1941...
...To gain a clear view of the situation is now more important than ever...
...It seems probsble that he will soon move Chinese Communists against Japan, and will lend them some help, perhaps in the form of a division of volunteers (aa was recently predicted by Edgar Snow...
...It it fairly certain that Japan would now capitulate to Britain and America if they agreed to leave her the territories which she hsd occupied prior to 1981, up, to her first aggression on Southern Manchuria...
...At thst time ¦* refused to discuss this subject...
...ua act evoked a storm of enthusiasm in the press...
...Fleet allegedly able almost to dominate the Japanese Saa (in reality that fleet consists mainly of submarines which are large in number but small in tonnage)' The denunciation of the Pact is often seen as the cause of recent events in Japan, for instance of the government crisis...
...1 in the Far East...
...He fulfills hit obligations only when ibis suits bis purposes...
...Stalin hsd no desire to join in the Far Eastern wsr as long as it was • great war whose issue wss uncertain...
...The denunciation of the Pact does not by itself indicate Stalin's intention to join in the wsr against Japan...
...The literature dealing with problems of war in the Pacific reveals that the victories of the American navy and air force have contradicted all the old notions about that war...
...It is an 0|«.n secret that General Koiso's Government which ruled since June, 1944, put out several peace feelers, and did not conceal the fact that it had not only abolished all plans of conquest, but was even ready to relinquish ¦nch of what had been acquired before the war...
...He now overtly links his attitude toward Japan to these Communist aspirations...
...OnDER these circumstances Stslin's denunciation of the Jspanesa Pact became a necessity...
...gMy commentators affirmed that it foreshadowed a Hainan military offensive against Japan in the nesr fstare...
...In this settlement he intends to take an "Us* part, and Us attitude toward Japan will be the more adamant, lbs teas capable she is of defending "•rself...
...These exuberant expectations reached such heights that C. L. Sulzberger of the N. Y. Timet deemed it neceasary to emphasise from Moscow (with the sp-prtvai of tho Moscow press) that,';the hope for more decisive Soviet stops at an early date was unfounded...
...The denunciation of the Soviet-Japanese Pact did Mt come as a surprise...
...Accordingly those who have faith in Stalin's loyalty to hia pledges, must take it for granted that he will undertake no military operationa against Japan during the coming year...
...The fact that these Chinese Communists have not waged war against Japan it no longer a secret...
...When he considers it expedient, ht will bresk his pledges to Japan, just as he broke his treaty with Bulgaria...
...Ten years ago the very idea that America could win a military victory over Japan, without bases on the Asiatic continent, would have aeemed preposterous...
...at the San Francisco Conference together with the Chinese: this decision implied the present move, for the Pact goes far beyond the usual bounds of non-aggression treaties...
...The occupation of Iwo and Okinawa, and the systematic air bombardment of Japan proper caused the dismissal of Koiso and the formation of the Suuskt Government, which is certainly willing to make even greater concessions than its predecessor...
...What is sure, however, is that Stalin is pre-psring another move, and the latest news seems to indicate thst it is imminent It will bo directed against Chiang Kai-Shek, that Is to say against China, which for eight years haa boon waging war against overwhelming odds...
...All those military operations are quits possible, though not inevitable...
Vol. 28 • April 1945 • No. 16
