What Is Stalin's Program in Asia
NICOLAEVSKY, BORIS I.
What Is Stalin's Program in Asia The Crimea Conference and the Far East By Boris I. Nicolaevsky THE declaration issued by the Crime* Conference contain, no direct allusion to th* war in th*...
...Under these circumstances the turning down of the Communists amount* to a very welcome act of support tor...
...Moreover, 'plans to this effect have already received official endorsement Th* main political opponent ef Stalin's program is China, which rightfully claims a great part of the territories included, according to Daraaty, in that program...
...Then he will utterly disregard both the spirit and the letter of the treaty of 1941, to which today he displays such unimpeachable loyalty—just as he brushed aside Bulgarian-Soviet treaties when Bulgaria tried to capitulate to the Allies...
...Japan kaa no means of resistance in the council* of the United Nations since nobody will oppose stripping her ef her continental conquests...
...Information from reliable sources indicates that preparations for the realization of this program are already afoot...
...As a neutral in the war against Japan, Russia has so far categorically refused to take part in any conference discussing these problems...
...The schemes of the Japanese strategists sre now being frustrated, but on one point they proved successful: Japan thus fsr has fought on s single front...
...Information from post reliable military and diplomatic aottfce* in the csplta^* Vrjst* R. Drummond in the Chriitian Science Monitor of Feb, 14, "sirongly confirms reports, already circulsting abroad, that the Soviet Union will declare war on Japan and join the Allies*!* th* final offensive against Tokyo...
...StALIN is not a formalist who under no circumstances would break his word...
...This met with sympathy in Washington (th* USA wss not yet at wsr with Jspsn...
...Thi* is quite consonant with Stalin's customary methods...
...The chronological sequence of these statements ami the Yalta Conference is obvious: the Conference ended on February 11...
...General Weidemeier made his statement on February 15...
...ThERE srs indicstions that Far Eastern problems were discussed in Yalta, and that a cleavage was revealed with unmistakable clearness...
...Stalin knows, asserts the psper, that peace is indivisible and so is war, consequently the Red Army will strike against Fascist* wherever it finds them...
...13) prove true, and should Stalin declare war on Japan on April 21, 1945, he would violate hi* treaty with Japan just a* he would violate it by declaring war today...
...He may endeavor to maintain a free hand in the Far East, while enjoying all the advantages of an ally of Britain and America...
...Krainev affirms that although Chiang Kai-shek receives plenty of supplies from America, he does not really fight the Japanese, that he sabotages union with the Communists, that he is a dictator...
...With the chances of Japan's complete defeat mounting, Stalin's demands will increase in the direction of what Welter Dursnty termed his maximum program: control of both Northern and Southern Manchuria, of the Kdantung peninsula including Dairen (formerly Port Arthur), and of Korea...
...So adamant was his attitude that even private conversations about Japan between Churchill snd Roosevelt could not take place on Soviet territory, snd a special meeting had to be arranged in Alexandria...
...The choice of the meetingplace (San Francisco), its date (April 25), the role assigned to China (which will participate not only in the Conference, but also, along with France, in the preliminary negotiations) all suggest that the Conference will consider Far Eastern problems...
...ally ia the struggle against Japan is so strong that almost the entire American press is swept by an exuberant optimism...
...The supporters of the present war mobilised all their force...
...That psrt of the White House statement about the Alexandria parley, which stresses Churchill's declaration concerning Britain's intention to throw all her weight into the struggle against Japan, after the war in Europe has been ended, brings- into relief the lack of any similar pronouncement on the part of Stalin...
...The first statement of this kind was mad* by General Weidemeier, commander of American force* in Chins, who on February 16 declared that neither he nor other American officers have the right to give any assistance to Communist partisans...
...But during the coming period his efforts will be directed toward the consolidation of his political position with a view to accomplishing his Far Eastern program...
...The inference is clear: events of recent weeko do not warrant any optimistic hope for the Soviet Union'* early entry into the war agoAnet Japan, ) , Any doubts thst might have existed prior to the Churchill-Roosevelt meeting in Alexandria should have been dissipated by reports about this meeting...
...Both ia its msximnm snd minimum scope, this program is directed against China rather than against Japan...
...Should Reuter's report from London (Ckriotian Science Monitor, Feb...
...The Soviet-Japanese Treatey was concluded in Moscow April 24, 1941...
...Stalin's insistence on the date of the Conference bears testimony to his intention of keeping strictly within the framework of the treaty of 1941...
...At a propitious moment, when Japan's military machine is definitely crushed, he will of course join in the war against her in order to win important strategic positions...
...The comment of almost all the other American newspapers is in the same vein, and the Daily Worker (Feb...
...A part from information from "reliable, though -unverifiable, sources," this optimism feeds on certain declarations made in Yalta concerning the meeting of representatives of the United Nations, which is to convene for the purpose of laying the groundwork for th* future world organization...
...It wss deemed necessary to make clear beyond any doubt that the burden of the war against Japan would not be carried by America alone...
...It is precisely because the discussion with Stalin of this problem led to no positive result that special emphssis was laid on Churchill's declaration...
...Therefore, the accomplishment of the program hinges ou (Vo conditions: the military defeat of Japan and the political defeat ef independent (Kuomintag) China...
...The Jspanese militarists then realized that invasion of Russia would plunge them into a two-front war which they were anxious to avoid...
...It is common knowledge that during the last year the United States military and diplomatic representatives to the Chiang Kai-shek Government virtually supported th* Chinese Communist* who were sabotaging the war against Japan...
...Their position was strengthened by Churchill's.declaration that Britain would consider any Japanese aggression on Russia as equivalent to an aggression on herself...
...The current activity among Koreans in the Communist part of China (the creation of special Korean military units, schools for political leaders, etc...
...The treaty will expire on April 24,1944...
...Yet Stalin refused to discuss Soviet Russia's entry into the war In the Pacific...
...Immediately after Germany's aggression on Russia, in June, 1941, the Japanese Government was reshuffled...
...Accordingly, Stalin's decision to participate in the April meeting is indeed a very important event: he is evidently changing hi* tactics and intends to take an active stand in regard to the Far East...
...It looks as if we were here confronted with the first clashes of a political struggle which will mark the coming period in the Far East...
...Even should this coincidence prove accidental, it would nonetheless be symptomatic...
...The wording of this statement clearly indicates that it was made upon instructions from responsible leaders of American foreign policy...
...So far, owing to Soviet "neutrality" in the Japanese war, the main Soviet press organs, among them Pravda, which is the central organ of the ruling party, have refrained from assailing Japan or China...
...It also indicates a sharp reversal of that policy...
...In August, 1941, peace with Russia hung by a thread...
...evidence to the contrary is abundant, and Stalin would certainly not hesitate to attack Japan without any pretext and in violation of existing treaties—if this should suit his purposes...
...If Russia does not renounce the treaty, the participation of Soviet representatives at a conference together with Chineee representatives would be incompatible with it It may therefore be taken for granted that Stalin has decided to renounce the treaty...
...Thus the last date for such a declaration is the eve of the day on which the international Conference will be convened in San Francisco...
...This program is not predictable in detail, and the scop* of its realization will depend on the drift of events to come...
...This, however, is another problem...
...But the very fact that Stalin so* scrupulously observe* Article 6 prove* thst hs means to observe the other articlea as well...
...It doe* not seem probable that this sequence was accidental...
...An important fact in the history of the war throws s ear ions sidelight on the situation: if Japan today is not at war with Russia, she owes this to s great extent to Britain snd America...
...And since he invariably pursues his political objectives with the greatest determination, it is obvious that in the near future the situation in the Far East will undergo important changes...
...As regards Japan, Soviet neutrality haa not yet been broken, but Stalin has deemed it right to abolish political neutrality toward independent Koumintang China...
...Matsuoka and other Ministers, ardent supporters of friendship with the Soviets, were replaced by men like Baron Hiranuma, known as advocates of aggression against Russia...
...the article in Pravda appeared on February 18...
...indicates the trend...
...This means that, strictly speaking, Stalin will not have a free hand in regard to Japan before AprU, 24, 1946...
...There is nothing new in these accusations, but it is for the first time since the beginning of the war that they have appeared in Pravda...
...but according to Article 5 of the treaty, it will be automatically prolonged for another period of five years, unless either party declares the intention to abolish or modify it, one year before the expiration of the five year period...
...Along with the military struggle against Japan a large-scale political battle for the future of Chin* Is developing, and the issue of this battle will greatly affect the destinies of the whole world...
...10) grasped this opportunity to assail "antiSovief'-minded people who had doubted Soviet Russia'* entry into the war against Japan...
...The latter 1* now important a* a military power only...
...What Japan's attack at that time would have meant to Russia is clear in view of the ret* played in the November and December campaign ef 1941 by Red Army troops rushed to the front from the Far East: if Russia had been at war with Japan, Stalin could not have withdrawn them from Siberia...
...In fact, there are reasons to believe that the Japanese commission which has recently left for Moscow to discuss fishing rights is carrying on preliminary negotiations about such mollifications...
...According to these other articles, th* treaty dote not .become invalid until a year after ite renunciation, provided that no agreement has been reached as to its modification...
...ThERE is every reason to believe that Stalin will soon renounce the Soviet-Japanese Treaty of 1941, but whether he intends to declare war on Japan is still questionable...
...But fascist circles in Japan opposed wsr wit...
...The juxtaposition of these reports with what is known about the Yalta Conference shows that endeavors were made at the Conference to bring up the Far Eastern problem, and that Chinese sffaira were actually debated...
...What Is Stalin's Program in Asia The Crimea Conference and the Far East By Boris I. Nicolaevsky THE declaration issued by the Crime* Conference contain, no direct allusion to th* war in th* Far East Yet the desire to have Rus*ia as ail...
...But the trend of his program is quite definite...
...Stalin's stand is clear end uncompromising: in the European war he is Britain'* and America'* ally, bat ss far as Asia is concerned, hi* policy Is independent of that of the western democracies...
...Stalin calculates far ahead, and the art of waiting Is familiar to him...
...Until now they were published only in the magazine War and the Working ('/«*«, which is supposed to be an independent organ of the trade unions...
...Chiang K ai-shek's Army which for almost eight years has borne the brunt of war against Japan...
...As regards Japan, Russia first of all aspire* to the realization of the clssm set forth in the negotiations of 1941: the restitution by^Japan to th*> Soviet Union of the Eastern Chinese rati way, arid J*d*ne*« acquiscence is\the Sawt occupation of Norfn^sM.Manchuria...
...Plans fpr war against Russia were postponed, the government was reshuffled once more, and Pearl Harbor was attacked...
...Russia, because they wished a war against the Anglo-Saxons...
...It follows that the real significance of the date fixed for the San Francisco Conference is the exact opposite of what is assumed by almost all the newspapers...
...The realisation of the first condition Stalin leave* entirely te Britain and America, and himself carries into effect the prerequisites ef the second condition—th* political atruggle agsiast Chungking, against Chiang-Kaishek, his Government and hi* Army...
...What matters here is that setting the date of the Conference in accordance with the provisions of the Soviet-Japanese Treaty indicates that at the present Stalin deems it useful to observe the treaty punctiliously...
...This follows from some significant, though private, statements made sfter the Yalta Conference...
...Thi* program* will satisfy Stalin* only in case Japan does not suffer a complete military breakdown!.' Yet while considering such an issue of the war highly improbable, he would hardly refuse to discuss modifications of the treaty of 1941...
...Any doubt as to the meaning of General Weidemeier's statement was dispelled by an article of Paul Krainev which appeared in Pravda on February 18, and was essentially an argument against General Weidemeier and his present attitude...
Vol. 28 • March 1945 • No. 10
