UPDATES: A New Era for Paraguay

...Although Focusing on what he dethan a halfthey accepted Lugo as their clared the unjust practices of Paraguay’s larger neighbors, century of presidential candidate (with their own Federico Franco his arguments clearly struck Colorado as vice president), powera strong chord among many control of ful conservative elements Paraguayans, whose enthuwithin the party are likely to siasm has since snowballed government, strongly oppose Lugo’s key into an almost national consensus...

...A third, outgoing president Nicanor Duarte Frutos, may soon face similar charges...

...Lugo’s appeal is precisely that he is not seen as a politician, but rather as a man of God with a genuine concern for the poor, untainted by political corruption, greed, or self-interest...

...candidate, Luis Castiglioni, who was NACLA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS favored by many party members, bitterly denounced Ovelar’s victory as the result of electoral fraud...

...Lugo has a huge task on his hands...

...Perhaps this explains Lugo’s own caution...

...Inevitable infighting subsequently led two of the three main party backers, UNACE and Patria Querida, to withdraw, but Lugo succeeded in holding together and expanding the coalition, which evolved into the APC, the first political organization of its kind to effectively challenge the Colorados...

...Lugo stood out for committing himself to a platform of progressive social and economic change, viewed by many as essential in a country where about 40% live in poverty and 20% in absolute poverty...

...Having reached a remarkable 70% in his reformist years (2003-5), Duarte’s approval rating slid to just 5% by April, making him the most unpopular president in Latin America by some distance...

...In December of that year, comparatively late in the day, he announced that he would run as the consensus candidate for the previously fragmented opposition Concertación Democrática...

...Moreover, his third policy represented a strong stance in favor of renegotiation of the Itaipú ployees has already emerged to potentially thwart any attempt to implement desperately needed public-administration reforms...

...This would include targeted poverty-reduction policies, but perhaps most significantly a bold agrarian reform program to address Paraguay’s highly unequal distribution of land...

...His first policy of anti-corruption was not new but nonetheless effective, given the Colorado Party’s discredited image...

...Finally, key to Lugo’s success will be his performance in terms of agrar NACLA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS update ian reform, a central component of his electoral campaign, and povertyreduction strategy...

...First, Duarte’s popularity collapsed following a misguided bid to change the Constitution, which prohibits consecutive presidential terms, so he could run for reelection...

...The combination of state agencies, programs of land and tax reform...

...This should not, however, detract from the achievements of Lugo, the former “bishop of the poor” of San Pedro, one of Paraguay’s poorest regions...

...This ranged from a successful popular defense of democracy in 1999 (known as the marzo paraguayo, or Paraguayan March), to the blocking of both the government’s privatization program and a so-called anti-terrorism bill in 2002, to mass protests that effectively prevented Duarte from amending the Constitution in 2006...

...According to a popular saying, Paraguay is home to “land without people and people without land,” a reference to the country’s large number of landless farmers amid vast tracks of land, often in the hands of a few of absentee landlords...

...But it also reflected the weakness of the political opposition, which was unable to build a strong alliance to challenge Colorado hegemony or exploit growing political and social discontent...

...Brazilians operating in Paraguay, or brasiguayos, own most of the soy fields, and it is they who have deforested vast tracts to land, creating notorious “green deserts...

...Second, when it became clear that he would not be able to run, Duarte strongly backed his ex-minister of education, Ovelar, in the Colorado Party internal primaries in December 2007, which she won by the narrowest of margins...

...In many ways, the 2008 election result was just as much a reflection of the Colorados’ costly mistakes as it was of Lugo’s success...

...Indeed, Paraguay has one of Latin America’s most distorted territorial distributions, with about 300,000 families without access $3 billion per year...

...He has lived in and written extensively on Paraguay...

...Duarte, for example, was elected in 2003 on a platform of opposition to what he called “savage neoliberalism,” as well as programs aimed at reducing poverty, eliminating corruption, and initiating vital reforms in the state sector...

...Change was long overdue...

...The election results reflected this general disillusionment and disdain toward the political class...

...The issue of balance in Congress is especially important in Paraguay, since the 1992 Constitution gives extensive powerstothelegislatureattheexpense of the executive...

...The Colorado Party came to power via the bloody civil war of 1947, rapidly transforming itself into the pillar of the infamous dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner (1954–89), and then into the initiator and dominant force in Paraguay’s elite-led, limited, and decidedly shaky transition to democracy...

...Avoiding outspoken rhetoric, Lugo said simply: “Today we can affirm that the little ones are also qualified to win...

...Had Castiglioni either run as a presidential candidate or simply thrown his weight behind Ovelar, the Colorados may well have won, and the Paraguayan elections would have passed relatively unnoticed by the world...

...The Colorados’ grip on power was largely a product of their effective electoral machinery, vast networks of patronage and clientelism, and support within the bloated, inefficient, and highly politicized state sector...

...How he deals with Brazil will also influence the success of his administration...

...His closest opponent, Blanca Ovelar of the Colorado Party, won 31%, while the populist former general Lino Oviedo came in third with 22...

...Yet few, if any, presidents have shown sustained interest in these issues once elected...

...He also faces a weakened and divided Colorado Party in Congress...

...A proponent of liberation theology who worked closely with peasant movements, he came to the political forefront in 2006 at the head of the mass campaign against Duarte’s alleged violation of the constitution...

...Lugo’s electoral policy of renegotiation as a basis of financing social programs (especially in the agrarian field) clearly struck a chord with the electorate, as did his threat to take Brazil to the International Court of Justice at the Hague if necessary...

...update lugo’s reform efforts are likely to face widespread, organized resistance...

...The country now suddenly finds itself in uncharted territory, a new era, in its prolonged transition to democracy...

...Many saw this as typical patronage politics, and for many, a vote for Ovelar came to signify a vote for Duarte...

...As a result, many Colorados appear to have rejected her at the polls, due to her association with Duarte, and instead voted for Lugo, while remaining loyal to the party in departmental and legislative elections...

...Although the latter two parties have stated that they will work with Lugo, they are far from committed to social reform...

...overcome more of the Colorados...

...Surveys published by the Chile-based polling firm Latinobarómetro indicate deep-rooted disaffection with the democratic transition itself...

...Thus, the main forces in Congress will be the (albeit bitterly divided) Colorado Party, the PLRA, and UNACE,thepartyofLinoOviedo,who campaigned under the slogan of “God, Fatherland, and Family...

...these policies—anti-corrupand, to a great This reliance on the tion, social reform in favor of extent, society...

...However, these polices will not be easy to implement...

...However narrow it may be, Lugo does have a small window of opportunity to, as he has promised, “transform Paraguay...

...JULY/AUGUST 2008 update A New Era for Paraguay Euphoria swept the streets of asunción, Paraguay, after Fernando lugo won the april presidential election...

...Second,theAPCisarelativelyshaky coalition comprising 10 political parties and almost 20 social movements and organizations, ranging from far left to right, a challenge in itself in terms of retaining any form of unity...

...In the process, they have become the richest economic group in the country and look very much to Brazil for represen with Paraguay’s neighbor strongly influenced the elections and will affect Lugo’s ability to finance and implement his social reform program...

...zilian popular press, have further inflamed Paraguayan public opinion, creating a groundswell of support for Lugo’s stance...

...Meanwhile, the defeated pro-U.S...

...But he has widespread political support, as well as huge political capital, legitimacy, and approval, which should translate into a popular mandate for far-reaching social reform to address Paraguay’s indefensible inequalities and corruption...

...Until 2008, no political party or figure had been able to tap this significant opposition force, and the idea that the “little ones” could advance from protest to governance seemed a distant possibility...

...The reality, however, is far more complex...

...Despite pre-election polls that consistently predicted an opposition victory, a palpable sense of disbelief, aswellaseuphoria,sweptthecountryastheelection results were announced...

...Laura GaLLo / LaTINPHoTo.orG Peter Lambert is Head of Spanish and Latin American Studies at the University of Bath, United Kingdom...

...He is effectively a political novice confronting powerful political and economic vested interests...

...The blunt refusals to negotiate until 2023 by both Lula and his foreign minister, Celso Amorim, as well as the hostile and sensationalist reaction of the BraIt certainly does not provide Lugo with a strong base of support...

...PLRA is exacerbated in Con thepoor,andastrongstance in favor of national sovereignty—allowed Lugo to present himself as a fundamentally different candidate, offering a new way of doing politics in a country ground down by a stagnant political culture...

...In practice, Paraguay uses barely 7% of the energy output and sells the remainder of its half-share to Brazil...

...Unlike in previous elections, however, the Colorado Party was unable to reunite its warring factions...

...Nevertheless, Lugo was in one sense far more “political” than his opponents...

...Brazilian soyproducers,whotogether own more than 2 million acres, will also oppose land reform...

...The Paraguayan left remains divided in political terms, with minimal representation in the legislature...

...By Peter lambert Paraguay finally put an end to 61 years of rule by the Colorado Party, formerly the world’s longest-serving party in power, in presidential elections on April 20...

...How he deals with these groups will to an extent determine his success on the agrarian question...

...Having seen a successful challenge to the established interests that had dominated political life, it now faces the prospect of a first-ever peaceful alternation of power, and equally important, the possibility of far-reaching structural change...

...The politi cal backbone is the center and Yacyretá hydroelectric dam projects with Brazil lugo must right Liberal Party (PLRA), the traditional opponents and Argentina, respectively...

...Reform efforts are therefore likely to meet with widespread, organized resistance...

...Strikingly, the winner, Fernando Lugo, was not a traditional politician, but an ex-bishop and progressive reformist...

...While he talks of transforming Paraguay, his discourse also emphasizes reconciliation, the defense of private property, and a “socially responsible capitalism” more akin to Michele Bachelet’s policies than those of Chávez...

...Paraguay scores lowest in the whole continent in terms of support for democracy, satisfaction with democratic performance, and perception of a just distribution of wealth, while it figures second only to Peru in terms of distrust of political parties...

...In addition, Brazil is a key player in the soy industry, of which Paraguay is now the world’s fourth-largest exporter...

...to arable land...

...The APC is a diffuse, ideologically fragmented alliance that lacks an absolute majority, meaning his reforms will depend on cooperation from conservative groups in Congress...

...For the first time in the transition,manyParaguayanshavehigh expectations of the president-elect’s ability to tackle the raft of social, political, and economic problems facing the country...

...It has also seen the growth of pervasive, institutionalized corruption, reflected in the indictment on corruption charges of two former presidents, Juan Carlos Wasmosy (1993–98) and Raúl González Macchi (1998–99...

...The party’s sustained hold on power was even more surprising given the growth of social inequality, poverty, and unemployment, as well as drug trafficking and money laundering, during the transition...

...After years of neglect as a regional backwater, Paraguay briefly found itself in the international limelight, as the world focused on what was widely seen as another example of the poor, landless, and dispossessed majority in Latin America prevailing against corrupt, well-financed, and entrenched conservative elites—as another example, that is, of Latin America’s shift to the left...

...Paraguay is one of the most unequal countries in Latin America, behind only Bolivia, and has one of the highest rates of poverty, while high unemployment and NIcoLas PousTHomIs / LaTINPHoTo.orG JULY/AUGUST 2008 update underemployment have led to increasing emigration...

...Leading the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC), a broad coalition of mainly center-left and left-wing parties and social movements, Lugo gained 41% of the vote, far higher than surveys had predicted...

...Moreover,Lugo’svictorydidnotimplythecollapseoftheColorado Party, which remains the largest politicalpartyintermsofdepartmental governorships, seats in Congress and the Senate, and membership, with vast mobilizationalpowerandastrongbase of support in the public sector...

...Having survived a brutal electoral smear campaign that linked him with FARC guerrillas, Chávez, Morales, and even the kidnapping and murder in 2005 of Cecilia Cubas, the daughter of a former president, Lugo has been keen to present himself as a moderate...

...In this context, it was left to social and popular movements to offer effective, although unsustained, opposition at key moments...

...Lugo’s tax reform policies will no doubt be met with the same scale of protests that derailed Duarte’s attempts to bring soy producers and exporters into the tax system, raising the prospect of future conflict...

...Successive Colorado candidates have promised to fight poverty, corruption, and social injustice, while achieving very little...

...Lugo’s challenge is therefore not only to maintain an alliance, butalsotoleaditinadirectionin line with his electoral promises, navigating reforms through a powerful and conservative Congress...

...Instead, just one month before the elections, Castiglioni vowed not to vote for Ovelar...

...While the 2008 election campaign characteristically contained little in terms of ideological debate, engagement with key issues clear, or discussion of social, economic, and political programs, two of Lugo’s three central policies were unprecedented and clearly resonated with many Paraguayans...

...Indeed, a Colorado alliance of state em gress, where the center-left and left-wing movements that backed Lugo have minimal representation, due in part to their disagreements on candidates...

...The Itaipú dam treaty signed in 1973 between two military governments (two illegitimate governments, as Paraguayans often point out) obliges Paraguay to sell any unused electricity to Brazil rather than to third parties...

...Given these difficulties, parallels between events in Paraguay and the growth of the left in Latin America, casting Lugo as a Paraguayan Chávez or Morales, should be treated with extreme caution...

...However, this campaign will meet fierce opposition from the powerful Rural Association of Paraguay, led by elites from across the political spectrum, including from within the PLRA...

...Since prices for sales to Brazil are set at levels vastly below market rates, Paraguay effectively subsidizes about 20% of Brazilian domestic energy use, a subsidy reckoned to be worth about tation and support, paying minimal income tax and virtually no taxes on soy exports...

...Nevertheless, in a country with such low support for elite politics, a feeling of hope and optimism has replaced the usual cynicism and disenchantment...

...Lugo must overcome more than a half-century of Colorado control of government, state agencies, and, to a great extent, society, along with the accompanying legacies ofclientelism,corruption,andauthoritarianenclaves...

...All this should encourage him to rock the boat...

...For the first time in the transition, relations While lugo talks of transforming Paraguay, his discourse also emphasizes reconciliation, the defense of private property, and a “socially responsible capitalism...

...Since 1989 Paraguay has suffered three attempted coups d’etat (1996, 1999, 2000), the assassination of a Colorado vice president (1999), and sustained economic recession and stagnation (1996–2003), during which yearly per capita income dropped below $1,000...