Update/Venezuela Divided Society on the Brink
Rosen, Fred & Youngers, Coletta
As this is written in mid-January, Venezuela's fourth business-led general strike in a year is into its seventh week. At least five people have died; emotions and tensions run high, as...
...His opponents say he is precisely the culmination of the deterioration of the old political class itself...
...t the moment discussions are focused on attempts to reach an agreement on the form and timing of a popular referendum or early elections, on means to disarm the heavily armed population and on the establishment of a "truth commission" to look into the events of the coup and countercoup of April 1114...
...While Washington may be willing to postpone its desire for a regime shift in Venezuela, neighboring Colombia does remain a top priority...
...The Bush administration's support for the coup-installed government was severely criticized across the region, but it may now be trying to make amends as Washington prepares for war against Iraq...
...In that context, Venezuela's immediate crisis is embedded in a much deeper crisis of much longer duration...
...The United States not only needs to maintain its oil supply, but is looking for stability beyond its southern border and for the support of Latin American governments for the war effort...
...Far from providing fair and accurate reporting, the media by and large seek to provoke popular discontent and outrage in support of its political position...
...The Bush administration's role has been in constant flux...
...These stories function as auguries rather than reports of actual events: For example, this past September, the mass circulation El Nacional headlined the imminent closing of a daily paper by Chdvez...
...Among the old political class, for example, are trade union and social democratic actors now excluded from power and determined to regain their old privilege...
...there is no overt censorship and no paper or television station has been closed...
...change-of-heart...
...Since then, Brazil has been instrumental in putting together an international "Friends of Venezuela" group that would include Brazil, the United States, Mexico, Chile, Spain and Portugal, and might help to mediate the conflict...
...government's quick support of the short-lived coup-installed government-and continued speculation as to the extent to which U.S...
...the country's economy has suffered from an extended decline ever since...
...Chavez has told "moderates" within the opposition that the government would accept the results of a successful amendment drive-a drive he would oppose, of course-but that, in any case, the earliest the process could play itself out would be next summer...
...ChAvez has a remarkably strong rapport with the poor...
...This accounts for the uneasy alliance of the opposition-an uneasiness that widened into the rupture that undermined the April coup...
...The social Christian Copei has virtually disappeared...
...Some in the opposition are seeking to promote a constitutional amendment that would shorten the presidential term and allow for an early election...
...In short, Washington clearly prefers to see ChAvez go, but also does not want increased political instability in Venezuela to jeopardize the flow of oil or its other regional interests...
...flights, key for U.S...
...The events of last April showed how intensely pro and antiChavez sentiment divides the population and, significantly, the armed forces...
...H ugo ChAvez came to prominence when he led an attempted coup on February 4, 1992...
...government once again threw its political weight behind the opposition, publicly calling for early elections...
...On December 6, the fifth day of the current strike, a Portuguese immigrant with no apparent political ties opened fire on a festive anti-Chdvez crowd at Plaza Altamira, a site of daily anti-Chavez rallies, killing three demonstrators, including a teenage NACIA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 8UPDATE / VENEZUELA girl...
...The strike is led by an opposition umbrella group called Democratic Coordinator, the same coalition of business, union and political party forces that briefly forced President Hugo Chivez from office last April...
...In the short term, the principal discourse of all participants in the political debate focuses on "democracy" and "political tolerance," with both sides accusing each other of violence and intolerance...
...Chivez's supporters say he got along well with the press at first, even as the press began to attack the government...
...The neoliberals form a significant part of the opposition, principally in the faction associated with the Chamber of Commerce-led "coup within the coup" last April...
...Upon reading the story, the closing of a paper turned out to be the dire prediction of a visiting Argentine journalist...
...Amendment proponents would then have to gather sufficient signatures to force a referendum on the measure...
...Such an amendment would have to be approved by a majority of congress...
...The decline of his popularity rests not only in his abrasive personality, but in the long-term crisis of sustainable economic development in Venezuela and virtually all of Latin America...
...Having celebrated Chivez's brief removal from power last April, the U.S...
...emotions and tensions run high, as does the possibility for further violence...
...The perpetrators of this anti-press violence seem to be informally organized activists perhaps mixed with petty criminals...
...In December, the importance given to these negotiations by a broad spectrum of Latin American leaders was underscored by the decision of Brazil's Presidentelect Lula da Silva to send his chief foreign policy advisor to Venezuela to help the mediation efforts...
...Pro-Chivez forces say that the president is confronting a corrupt and discredited political system and that he is promoting the interests of the poor majority...
...The media often refers to the government as the "Taliban" and appears to be purposely avoiding any regular coverage of President Chavez or government events...
...intelligence-gathering efforts in Colombia, and may be negotiating other points with Washington regarding operations along its extended border with Colombia...
...rNAIA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 10 -UPDATE / VENEZUELA In the current geopolitical context, Chivez's rapport with the poor-the inclusion of the excluded-is more than symbolic...
...In early December, with the viability of Chavez's government increasingly called into question, the U.S...
...In the short term the country faces a crisis of governability and political tolerance...
...The population showed no inclination to support a coup-and in fact displayed a remarkably strong commitment to the country's democratic institutions-but it was widely commented at the time that the failed coup succeeded in bringing large numbers Police in riot gear protect demonstrators who demand that Chivez step down...
...While Chdvez has yet to develop such an inclusive program, the "inclusion" of the poor is frightening to those who advocate neoliberal development for Venezuela...
...delegation sought a reversal of Chivez's refusal to Vol XXXVI, No 4 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2003 9UPDATE / VENEZUELA allow U.S...
...Following Chdvez's verbal attacks on the press, however, working journalists have been roughed up and equipment belonging to reporters, newspapers and broadcast media has been damaged...
...The negotiations are sponsored by the OAS, the UN Development Program and the Carter Center, a nongovernmental organization headed by former U.S...
...Since then, two pro-Chavez demonstrators have been shot dead in a clash of opposing rallies in Caracas...
...The killings inflamed all sides, cranked up the already high level of political confrontation, gave birth to an industry of conspiracy speculation about the true identity and motives of Joao de Gouveia, the mysterious Oswaldlike assassin, and gave notice-if additional notice was needed-that Venezuela's armed-camp violence might be on the verge of spiraling out of control...
...officials may have been involved in the coup plot itself-the statement surprised many and led to a round of editorials in Venezuela's opposition press critical of the U.S...
...President Jimmy Carter...
...News stories are frequently written in the future tense, playing on the fears of the readership...
...His "Bolivarian Revolution" has created two sets of displaced enemies: the economic elites, grouped around the Chamber of Commerce (Fedecimaras), and the old political class, many of whom are affiliated with the once-dominant social democratic party Democratic Action (AD) and its affiliated Confederation of Venezuelan Workers (CTV...
...Unlike the previous general strikes, this one enjoys the participation of most of the managers and a good many workers from the country's crucial-and privileged-oil industry...
...They say he is the point of departure for the reconstruction of an honest and progressive Venezuelan political class...
...The strikers have been deliberately provocative, shutting down economic activity on an ongoing basis, and holding demonstrations in prohibited areas...
...assistance may presently be going to the Venezuelan opposition...
...the violence is disowned by the government...
...Beyond the important questions of class, the political opposition, comprised mainly of the non-poor, objects to Chivez's inflammatory and revolutionary rhetoric, his personalistic and authoritarian style, and what they claim to be his gross mismanagement of the Venezuelan economy...
...A variety of factors may account for the shift in policy, and the Bush administration clearly used its new-found leverage with the Chavez government to its advantage...
...An inclusive political-economic program is antithetical to a neoliberal economic program based on the maximum freedom and mobility of global (and to a lesser extent national) capital...
...The coup of mid-level officers and a subsequent military attempt in November of that year, inspired by the then-imprisoned ChAvez, were not seen by most Venezuelans-and especially not by poor Venezuelans-as conventional military attempts to seize power, but rather as attacks against a system that had become corrupt and elitist and no longer able to deliver on its promises...
...Concerns remain regarding what covert U.S...
...Concerned that Venezuela's oil keep flowing, Washington has put aside its dislike for ChBvez and is currently backing the ongoing negotiations between the government and opposition being mediated by C6sar Gaviria, the ex-president of Colombia who is Secretary General of the Organization of American States...
...The old parties are discredited, though the social democratic Democratic Action retains a certain institutional coherence and influence...
...Neoliberal globalization, the model ChAvez has vowed to combat, is based on the discipline and exclusion from decision-making of poor and working populations...
...Embassy in Caracas issued a statement in September in which it insisted that Washington would not support another interruption in constitutional rule in Venezuela...
...It also accounts for the apparent paradox that ideology by itself does not dictate one's position within the Venezuelan political landscape...
...Given the U.S...
...In late September an official U.S...
...Venezuela has not had a credible model of development since its oil boom faded and its foreign debt reached the limits of manageability in the mid 1980s...
...While most analysts say an early "yes-no" referendum would be won by the opposition, it is by no means clear that the diverse opposition could come up with a flesh-and-blood candidate who could defeat Chdvez in an election...
...a successful referendum would then force a presidential vote...
...President Chdvez subsequently agreed to the U.S...
...wned and controlled by the hard-line opposition, much of the print and television media have become protagonists in the conflict...
...Not only have popular movements been energized by the ChAvez presidency, but ChAvez has been intent on replacing the old political class with a new set of players loyal to the revolution he has vowed to lead in the name of the South American liberator, Sim6n Bolfvar...
...The opposition, seeking to drive Chdvez from office immediately, is still insisting that a referendum on his rule be held in early February...
...surveillance planes to fly over Venezuelan airspace...
...No official persecution of the press or journalists is evident in Venezuela...
...The two crises are intertwined, but the short-term crisis is explosive and dominates the political discourse on both sides...
...their avowed aim is to build sufficient pressure to force Chdvez from office...
...As we write, the implementation and proper functioning of such a group is under discussion...
...Chivez's initial popularity was based on his willingness to confront the old live-off-the-oil-rent politics of inefficiency, clientism and corruption...
...Since the political opposition is divided between economic elites and the old displaced political class, however, there may be no one leader who could eventually take on Chavez at the polls...
...of new participants-particularly from among the poor-into the political process, changing the climate and structure of Venezuelan politics...
...For many of his middle class opponents, the speeches are patronizing, repetitive and demagogic, but for the historically excluded, Chavismo has attempted to democratize power...
...His discourse, they say, turned progressively sharp and bitter when the media campaign turned in a direction he considered racist and defamatory...
...So while freedom of expression is strong, the freedom of reporters to practice their profession has been compromised...
...it has struggled for a politics of respect, dignity and social rights...
...Whatever the origins of the mediagovernment antagonism, it has become a key part of the ominous spiral of confrontation and intolerance...
...Pardoned by President Rafael Caldera in 1994, ChAvez formed his own political party, the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR), and successfully ran for president in 1998...
...Under criticism that immediate, new elections would be unconstitutional, Washington reversed course again and appeared to endorse a popular referendum...
...In the long term there is a crisis of sustainable, equitable economic growth and development...
...The government has responded in kind, using tear gas and plastic bullets on various occasions, frequently to disperse demonstrators from prohibited "security zones" in front of sites deemed sensitive by the government-the oil company headquarters, for example...
...Perhaps of greatest importance, Washington quickly secured an agreement with President Chdvez to ensure a continued flow of oil to the United States-though between September and January, Venezuela's general business stoppage has cut the flow to a trickle...
...he carefully explains world events, basic geography and national politics in ways that include people who have typically been left out of the political debates and create a sense that "ChAvez is our president...
...The most visible and hard-line sectors of the political opposition maintain that by acting in an authoritarian manner, the government has forfeited constitutional legitimacy...
...Concerned that the spiraling conflict might undermine their own tenuous stability-Chdvez's approval rating has plummeted, but his 35% rating is still about average for a Latin American head of state-Latin American governments have committed resources to a negotiated, constitutional resolution to the conflict...
...His long televised speeches are typically aimed at the poor...
...they see the immediate ousting of the president as the only option...
...The government, citing a provision in the constitution, has offered to hold a referendum halfway through Chivez's term this coming August on whether to call an early election...
...Many point to problems with an ineffective and at times inoperable public administration, which they view as having led to a situation of ungovernability...
...The opposition's only demand at this point is that Chavez resign immediately and a new presidential election be scheduled as quickly as possible...
Vol. 36 • January 2003 • No. 4
