Elusive Peace

...These separate talks, despite the political pretensions of Carlos Castaiio, should be limited to a narrow set of issues including cease-fire, amnesty within the evernarrowing judicial space permitted under international law, and dismantling their military capabilities...

...Elusive Peace 1. Data from the Human Rights Ombudsman Office (Defensoria del Pueblo), 2000...

...Recently, the process with the ELN started again, though the first steps were not auspicious...

...Yes, they engage in criminal activities-including some in clear violation of international humanitarian law, such as kidnapping civilians for ransom--to finance their war...

...These talks were marred by the absence of the FARC leader Manuel Marulanda...

...ble in this environment...

...many believe they are in the despeje zone...

...Many in the international press have seized on this experience to conclude that the peace process is a ruse and that the FARC is not serious...

...Often left unsaid is that discussions continued between the FARC and the government, and that Marulanda and Pastrana have since met twice...

...They are being challenged by the paramilitaries and can expect reverses with the new U.S...

...In November 1998, the despeje zone was established in five municipalities in the departments of CaquetA and Meta, together equaling a territory the size of Switzerland, but with only about 100,000 inhabitants...

...3. See Marc Chernick, "Negotiating Peace Amid Multiple Forms of Violence: The Protracted Search for a Settlement to the Armed Conflicts in Colombia," in Cynthia Arnson, ed...

...government need to come to terms on the issue of coca and opium poppies...

...Meanwhile over the last few egy...

...The state agreed to withdraw its military and police presence from the zone, leaving it under control of the guerrillas and a few civilian state agencies, such as the office of the Human Rights Ombudsman and the elected mayors...

...Both the FARC and the Colombian government have argued that alternative development programs would be more effective in the context of a peace process, with the guerrillas working with state and international authorities...

...They have profited, but it is highly unlikely that they receive the commonly mentioned sums of several hundred million to a billion dollars annually...

...diplomacy of peace-either directly or in support of European or UN initiatives---could be crucial for pushing the process forward...

...things will get worse In August, a military patrol in before they get better...

...What is clear is that there can be no peace without the paramilitaries...

...They have likely reached their limit as a military organization...

...5 It is just beginning, and is not likely to conclude before Pastrana finishes his term...

...Two years into the Pastrana government, with only two years left in a term that according to the Constitution he cannot repeat, much of the hope generated from the President-elect's 1998 embrace of guerrilla leader Manuel Marulanda in the Colombian mountains has dissipated, replaced by the cold shower of interminable violence and atrocities...

...All sides now think that increased firepower will strengthen their position politically...

...In January 1999, the talks formally began with a large demonstration of international support in the withdrawal zone...

...government needs to be reconstructed...

...diplomacy of peace could be crucial for pushing the process forward...

...The matter of illicit crops is on the agenda...

...Until now, the paramilitaries Carlos Castafio an principally waged a "dirty war" against civilians imposing a nation believed to be cooperating with the guerrillas...

...It is not ideology NACIA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 0 0 0 36REPORT ON COLOMBIA that separates the sides...

...THEY WERE ALL GUERRILLAS...

...Comparative Peace Processes in Latin America (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 1999...

...though it has not yet been enough...

...cease-fire...

...The FARC, ELN, tus quo, a dynami the government and the AUC have two immediate polit- tiated settlement ical reference points: first, the municipal elections in this point, the gu October 2000, and second, the peace process...

...The populace, seeing only rising bloodshed and little political will to make peace, is withdrawing its support from all parties and beginning to force the issue...

...There is no indication that individual guerrilla leaders have personally profited from their connection to the coca and opium poppy trade...

...The president who governs from August 2002 to 2006 will likely preside over the final accord...

...military assistance to the Armed Forces...

...Both sides have now agreed to discuss changing the rules and an early cease-fire...

...Most efforts have been oriented toward reaching an agreement with the FARC...

...2. Data from the Colombian National Police...

...In its negotiations with the FARC, the government agreed to create a zona de despeje, or clearance zone, to facilitate negotiations...

...The no cease-fire policy, which was used during negotiations with the FMLN in El Salvador, has led to a perverse logic in Colombia...

...Yet they are willing to wait, and this creates a dilemma for the Pastrana government...

...The FARC is currently holding 528 police and soldiers captive...

...Pastrana will not preside over a final peace...

...Vol XXXIV, No 2 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000 33REPORT ON COLOMBIA The common assumption is that peace is the government's first strategy, and war is Plan B. But Pastrana has put it best: In truth there is no Plan B. If peace fails, he said, the country returns to the same old war...

...This period culminated in the meeting between U.S...

...aid, the fundamental stalemate is unlikely to change, even as different armed actors suffer reverses or gain ground...

...Meanwhile, what has been achieved during Pastrana's first two years, and what can realistically be expected before he leaves office...

...On this basis, the two parties established an agenda for negotiations and created mechanisms to consult with the population through regional meetings and national conferences held in the despeje zone...

...Behind Surviving pupils and teachers said they knew of no guer- by the FARC and rilla activity in the area...

...citizens working with indigenous populations in Colombia...

...Taking up the unemployment issue underscores the extent to which the guerrillas have begun speaking a language of social justice within the context of a capitalist society...

...It is unlikely the economy could support such an inflow of dollars, and one sees no evidence of it in their territories...

...Many say the guerrillas are simply drug-traffickers with few incentives to give up their lucrative involvement in the trade...

...One study finds that over 600 of generally gain, th these municipalities are being targeted by one group or old political bosse k another, causing much of the increased violence and political maneuvering...

...In the north, they ment's "Plan C are moving against the ELN, and in some areas against FARC-dominate the FARC...

...it is evident to most close observers that the FARC is principally a political-military organization...

...No consensus as yet exists, but the most realistic and potentially effective strategy would be a policy of military engagement against the paramilitaries-something that has yet to be tried seriously, leaving open the possibility of separate talks at a separate table...

...Still, the bridge between the insurgents and the U.S...

...Moreover, as the maneuvering intensifies into a crescendo of violence and finger pointing, one can discern what is possible over the next few years...

...espite foreign correspondents' continuing use of the term "Marxist rebels," it is clear that the FARC's ideology has once again adapted to the times and international political contexts...

...They are also expanding in the south, partic- Department of h ularly in Putumayo...

...The FARC and Share more political adversaries and ideological allies...

...to increase leverage at the negotiating table...

...They and other leading politicians have traveled to the despeje zone and are increasingly committed to the peace process...

...What peace...

...All the combatants believe in escalating the fighting in order Peace protest in BogotJ at the 1999 funeral of journalist/come- dian Jaime Garz6n...

...The crucial question is, when...

...Little progress has been made on the second and third of the FARC's initial conditions, though the Pastrana government has removed several generals and colonels from the Armed Forces because of their ties to the paramilitaries...

...One station aired a two hour interview with Carlos Castafio in prime time...

...involvement in Colombia and dramatically facilitate the wider negotiations...

...Nor can there be peace without a policy towards the paramilitaries...

...His failure to show up left an empty chair on the dais-a great embarrassment for President Pastrana, who was sitting next to it...

...governments south, the northern-based paramilithe moment, both militarily and in the farther enter the drug trade...

...things will get But Washington is not the only party guided by mili- fact keeps pus tary thinking...

...Kidnappings, too, have reached record levels: There were 2,805 in 1999.2 The guerrillas are believed responsible for over Is peace possible in this half...

...The process will not be rapid...

...For a growing number of the unemployed and undereducated youths in vast urban ghettos where the state has little presence, the real safety nets are violent gangs, popular militias-some loosely associated with the guerrillasand bands of sicarios, or contract killers for hire...

...All this leads to one conclusion, which they seem to understand: The only solution to the conflict is a negotiated one...

...With the On top of this, the United States is sending attack heli- focusing on the copters and training two new elite anti-narcotics taries are seizing brigades to operate in zones controlled by the FARC as opportunities to f part of a $1.3 billion package of activities justified by a in the Colombian deafening anti-narcotics rhetoric...

...There is no alternative to a negotiated settlement to the armed conflict in Colombia...

...motives, strategic The one glimmer of hope during the past few months, other pieces mus the start of negotiations in Switzerland between the the ELN for nov Colombian government and Colombia's second guer- competitors than rilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), was they have been cl largely derailed by escalated attacks by the paramilitary advantage, create forces...

...Unemployment hit 20.4% last month...

...They act as the state in the areas they control, organizing such services as education, courts, health, road construction, and loans to farmers and small businessmen...

...Its last frontier is the involvement of Colombian civil society and the international community...

...antiitary strategy...

...The state has many guerrilla prisoners, including leaders of the ELN and the People's Liberation Army (EPL), but none of the senior leadership of the FARC...

...The outlines of his peace plans are straightforward...

...Rather, it is just the opposite, that despite their obvious involvement with the lower ends of the drug trade and other criminal activities, they have maintained their political character...

...Alternatively, failure to reach agreements on this issue will almost certainly prolong the war...

...second, progress toward weakening and dismantling the paramilitaries...

...ries are also fragmented, although d the AUC have made great strides in al structure on the country's separate version into a national fighting force by implementation of the U.S...

...The options are either the stac but unbreakable stalemate or a negoinvolving real change and reform...

...The reconfigured political map after the October elections will help determine some of the key issues to be discussed at the negotiating table, including local political power, the use of natural resources, illicit crops and the arrangements of a the upsurge in violence-especially AUC-is carefully laid political stratil to see it in Colombia's armed actors tea leaves...

...Now, forces...

...For the last eight months, the two sides have been discussing economic reform and employment...

...But peace is too important to be left to the armed actors...

...At one point, the United States was inching towards a role...

...At the formal discussions, the FARC and the government have agreed to deal with issues such as economic policy and unemployment, human rights and international humanitarian law, illegal crops and alternative development, agrarian, military and political reform...

...Peace...

...Most FARC weapons continue to be homemade, such as gas cylinders, which are inaccurate and dangerous to use, not the product of an army overflowing with dollars...

...representatives and the FARC in Costa Rica in late 1998...

...Outside the despeje zone the war would continue until substantial progress was made at the table...

...At errillas can probably get more at the than they could ever achieve through time, the paramilitaries would probaand this is part of the problem...

...The FARC have emphasized building a strong army, and they continue to behave like a political organization...

...But slowly, the major politicians and political parties, including the two presidential candidates defeated by Pastrana in 1998, Noemi Sanin and Horacio Serpa, are becoming involved in the talks...

...The TV news echoes the newspapers with visual soundbites of death, grief and destruction...

...Peace is possible in Colombia...

...The cease-fire discussions will be held apart from the formal agenda talks...

...Those that do stray are severely disciplined...

...At the same ence and control throughout Colombia's 1,092 munici- bly achieve less, palities by placing their candidates into the mayor's political parties ai office and city councils...

...But the FARC squandered that opportunity when they killed three U.S...

...Each of negotiating table the armed actors wants to increase its territorial influ- arms...

...A resounding 78% in a countrywide poll say no...

...Yet it is dynamic and fluid-not the "hurting stalemate" that experts on negotiations speak of as necessary for success at the table...

...In recent months, ashing militarily in search of tactical ng the unseemly sight of two groups lhting for social justice who are ruthother's mid-level leaders and engagat...

...military intrusion will not "s peace possi lead to more casualties and wider war...

...The Pastrana governolombia" is principally focused on d southern Colombia and the utumayo, where most of the coca is Colombian and U.S...

...In the poorer areas of the larger cities, the informal sector cannot sustain the ever-increasing flow of newcomers escaping rural violence: There are now an estimated 1.8 million displaced people throughout the country...

...The conflict could last many more years...

...Colombia is like analyzing a game of l chess-with multiple actors, s and scenarios...

...Agreements over this issue at the negotiating table and perhaps in the context of a cease-fire could substantially change the nature of U.S...

...Back in Colombia, the evening news showed the claiming to be fig combat between ELN and paramilitary forces known as lessly killing the the United Self-Defense Units of Colombia (AUC), ing in open comb leaving the impression that a major transformation was The paramilita occurring on the battlefield...

...FARC OVERRUNS SMALL TOWN AND KILLS POLICEMEN AFTER THEY SURRENDER...

...The current ambiguity and primary emphasis on the drug war is not helpful, and could be quite harmful...

...Too many Armed Forces still view the paramilallies...

...some have received the death penalty...

...What impact will the itaries as strategic military aid have on the conflict...

...Rich and poor now feel insecure in their own neighborhoods...

...Indeed what is surprising is not how much the FARC has degenerated into a criminal syndicate since the end of the Cold War...

...The conclusions of the first discussion on unemployment will be made public soon and have generated intense national debate on the costs of war, the benefits of peace, and policies to stimulate the moribund economy...

...This is more than any previous president has done...

...Showing callous disregard for the truth, senior Ministry of Defense officials said guerrillas were using the children as human shields...

...Their con however, the paramilitaries demonstrated that they have may be hastened been largely transformed into a more professional fight- narcotics and mil ing force capable of regular combat...

...All sides-government, guerrilla, paramil- negotiating table: itaries-fervently believe that increased firepower will support to win mi strengthen their position politically...

...Within their spheres of influence, they also "tax" all productive activities, including the burgeoning coca trade...

...A U.S...

...Second, the government agreed to negotiate without a cease-fire...

...According to the Human Rights Ombudsman, there were 403 massacres killing 1,865 defenseless victims in 1999, signaling a 55% increase over the previous year.' On average more than one massacre was committed every day in Colombia in 1999...

...From 1964 through the 1990s, the FARC was clearly allied with the Communist Party of Colombia and had strong ties to the Soviet Union...

...There is a stalemate...

...Move one, and all t adjust accordingly...

...PARAMILITARY CHIEF CARLOS CASTAlTO JUSTIFIES MASSACRES BECAUSE Marc Chernick teaches in the Department of Government at Georgetown University and is a member of NACLA's editorial board...

...Though it seems unwilling to physically confront them or engage them in peace talks, there is a groundswell of opinion for the government to develop a policy towards them...

...and third, exchange of prisoners...

...Even though the last 18 years have seen several periods of negotiations, this new phase looks to be the definitive one...

...Moreover, their negotiating teams subsequently agreed on a 12-point agenda for the talks that included meetings of citizens, foreign dignitaries and diplomats in the despeje zone...

...The group began in the 1950s as a peasant movement with radical agrarian ideas and ties to the Liberals...

...Two years is a short time...

...But today the bipolar world has been traded in for a multipolar one, where NGOs, distant European governments and national civil society play a role, and at the negotiating table, the group's programs are practical, nationalist and reformist...

...The FARC can wait for a long time...

...Those who fa months, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia are misreading the (FARC), Colombia's oldest and largest guerrilla move- Understanding ment, has been overrunning small towns and pitting 200 three-dimensiona guerrillas against, at best, 20 policemen...

...To see that progress has been made, one needs to look beyond the daily headlines of kidnappings and atrocities, which have resulted, in part, from the agreement to negotiate without a cease-fire...

...He has taught at the University of the Andes and the National University of Colombia, and is currently completing a book on the Colombian peace process...

...As far as most Colombians are concerned, the peace process is going nowhere fast...

...Right-wing paramilitary forces are believed responsible for over 70...

...Yet A U.S...

...Pastrana has two more years...

...Most thin ing, with civilians bearing the brunt...

...In the short term, at least, it is hard to see how U.S...

...The FARC initially placed three conditions on the talks: first, creation of the withdrawal zone...

...They can sabotage any agreement between the guerrillas and the government, just as they severely weakened the initiation of talks between the ELN, civil society and the government in Geneva...

...The military conflict is intensify- environment...

...The great disillusion is amplified by the worst economic recession in more than 60 years and by palpable insecurity...

...Despite increased military pressure as a result of U.S...

...Most think worse before they get better...

...grown...

...The nd the government, meanwhile, would ough certain regional politicians and s would likely be losers...

...Both the United States and Colombia need to develop a policy of first weakening the paras through decisive military actions, then articulating their place within the wider stage of the peace process...

...Antioquia fired on dozens of school children on a class outing...

...Instead, what keeps them apart is deeplyrooted mistrust, historical resentment and, above all, competition for power and geographical influence in the post-conflict society...

...But one shing the principal actors back to the No side has the firepower or political litarily...

...With the paramilitaries, the government has not defined a strategy...

...The media fosters the outrage with sensational headlines and selective reporting, packing in tidbits of truth while failing to provide a broader context: FARC HOLDS KIDNAPPED CHILDREN IN WITHDRAWAL ZONE...

...Do you approve of the government's policies towards the guerrillas...