Elections in El Salvador: The Right Consolidates Power
Vickers, George & Spence, Jack
ARENA's hard-hitting campaign strategy attempted to exploit the cleavages in Salvadoran society wrought over a decade of war. The election became a fight between Right and Left, and the results...
...The Left cut significantly into the ARENA margin of victory in San Salvador, especially in its poor municipalities...
...10 NACL4 REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 10 NACIA REPORT ON THE AMERICASUPDATE / EL SALVADOR The Left was also hampered by financial constraints...
...Were the elections "free and fair...
...These divisions further undermined its credibility as a potential governing force, split the vote, and no doubt confused voters...
...edures were seriously flawed...
...Violence, and the fear it instills, may well have hampered the Left's recruitment of local candidates and campaign activists, particularly in rural areas...
...Many of the problems were corrected by the second round...
...It argued that a fruitful negotiation with the Right could only occur after the Left demonstrated significant strength in the first round of voting...
...Secondly, since ARENA has more trained people, more money, and the entire government apparatus at its disposal, it could maneuver on the various playing fields without feeling unduly stretched...
...Just before the run-off, the head of ONUSAL's electoral division, Rafael L6pez Pintor, predicted a violence-free election day...
...Villalobos backed a "center" candidate-Christian Democrat founder and wealthy businessman Abraham Rodriguez...
...ARENA had a number of advantages this time which it will probably not have in future elections: an economy with high levels of external support, two years of peace, a popular incumbent president, and an opponent with little electoral experience...
...The elections also reveal that ARENA has broken through to a new level of support, receiving 200,000 more votes than it ever received before...
...BY GEORGE VICKERS AND JACK SPENCE he camera focuses close-up on drawing paper and a small hand with a crayon sketching a female figure...
...The election became a fight between Right and Left, and the results were not good news for the Left...
...It did not have enough money to adequately target specific campaign messages to key sectors of the electoratein particular women, youth, and rural voters-in which it knew its support was weak...
...The center and Left opposition denounced what they called technical fraud, while others spoke of "irregularities...
...The People's Expression of Renewal (ERP)-which during the war was called the Revolutionary Army of the People-emphasizes the need to consolidate Left power in civil society through the creation of a productive base and a media vehicle...
...Procedures were seriously flawed despite considerable international assistance and extensive monitoring...
...The FMLN eel -in particular, the Popular Forces of Liberation y. (FPL)-also demonstrated its ability to spread its id political organization over of the whole of El Salvador's territory...
...Because popular mobilization was downplayed, Salvadoran voters were largely apathetic about the "elections of the century" and vulnerable to death-squad intimidation...
...Under the Chapultepec accords, for instance, the National Police-a key component of the repressive national security apparatus in rural areas-was scheduled to be replaced by a new National Civilian Police force (PNC) well before the elections...
...In public financing alone, this gave ARENA a 50% money lead over the Christian Democrats, and a 6-to-1 lead over the Left...
...If the Left had not run competing slates, it would probably have picked up two more Assembly seats and won a handful more municipal elections...
...This is not insignificant given that two deputy seats became the margin of difference between an ARENA-dominated and a center-Left majority in the Assembly...
...Even the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) admitted to a number of "anomalies...
...Delays and obstructions hindered the implementation of the provision in the peace accords for the transfer of lands to ex-combatants and to civilians in zones formerly controlled by the FMLN...
...The child's soft voice tells viewers that the terrorists are hoping people will forget, but the child doesn't think mommy and daddy will forget...
...In the secondround run-off, he defeated Ruben Zamora-the presidential candidate for a coalition of leftist parties including the Farabundo Marti Liberation Front (FMLN)--by 68% to 32...
...ARENA was the front-runner in the polls from the beginning of the campaign, and its lead was never in dispute...
...It also had to combat over ten years of government-dominated propaganda, which painted the organization as a band of Communists and terrorists...
...This set of coincidences prompted some to speak of the "elections of the century...
...By contrast, the FPL insisted on nominating a distinct "left" standard bearer-Rub6n Zamora...
...Lavish pictures of schools and bridges washed across the television screen...
...This problem was compounded by the FMLN's hierarchical internal organization, according to which only the top ranks of the organization have the authority to make decisions...
...Several days after a Zamora ad said "I challenge" The FMLN's Achilles' h, has been lack of unit Personal squabbles ar conflicts over quotas power have eruptec among its five partie Calder6n Sol to a debate, the latter-without mentioning his rival's name-replied that his only "challenge" was building schools and bridges...
...This money advantage afforded ARENA the opportunity to run a huge variety of ads, and run them often...
...It will be difficult for the Christian Democrats to win these voters back, given the party's continuing disintegration...
...ERP leaders, most prominently Joaquin Villalobos, argued that the Left must acquire maturity and demonstrate administrative experience if it is to make itself credible to the business sector and the broad Salvadoran public...
...he FMLN entered the campaign as the underdog...
...The results shaped El Salvador's immediate future, but the campaign was in many respects about the past...
...Ironically, with respect to social sectors, the Left was stronger among the PARTY PREFERENCE BY SOCIOECONOMIC SECTOR Upper Upper Lower Worker Urban Rural Middle Middle Marginal None 0.8 2.6 2.7 4.0 3.4 2.5 ARENA 61.2 43.7 38.9 33.8 19.7 28.9 Left 18.2 20.5 18.9 19.0 15.8 10.4 PDC* 1.7 7.4 10.0 10.2 17.1 12.0 Others 1.7 2.2 3.0 2.3 1.3 4.1 Secret 5.0 11.8 10.0 12.5 20.1 15.4 No Response 11.6 11.8 16.6 18.2 22.6 26.8 * Christian Democratic Party Source: The Central American University (UCA), February, 1994...
...The Left emerged from the elections as El Salvador's second force, surpassing the veteran Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and the PCN...
...reflecting people's continuing caution, a large majority declined to respond when asked who they thought sponsors the death squads...
...Jack Spence is president of Hemisphere Initiatives...
...Obviously, however, fewer people came out to vote because of the earlier "irregularities" and the assumption that the race was not going to be close...
...The debate challenge went unanswered...
...Schafik Handal, speaking on behalf of the other three parties within the FMLN, publicly denounced the move and announced the suspension of eight leaders-including Villalobos-from party functions...
...The threatening tone of the ads was repeated in campaign speeches in rural areas...
...Implementation of the accords has been a process of constant renegotiation...
...Another 20% had doubts about the Left's ability to run the country...
...While the FMLN did well in some of its traditional rural strongholds such as Las Vueltas and San Antonio Los Ranchos in Chalatenango, ARENA swept most of the rural areas...
...Many of the new ARENA supporters voted in previous elections for the Christian Democrats...
...Polls indicated that more Salvadorans gave credit to ARENA, than to the FMLN, for the last two years of peace...
...Nevertheless, the results of the elections pose very serious questions for those who hoped to consolidate the peace process through elections...
...It was an attack to which the Left, in essence, did not respond...
...Personal squabbles and conflicts over quotas of power have erupted among its five parties, requiring time-consuming leadership negotiations...
...The price-per-vote formula for state financing of campaigns also favored ARENA...
...In the end, it is not clear how much difference the campaigns made...
...Leadership elections for the new Legislative Assembly have already exacerbated the tensions...
...Its assessment followed the assassinations of two high-level FMLN leaders and numerous assaults on and killings of political activists not easily attributable to common criminals...
...Centers had fewer people to handle due to reduced turnout, down 10% from the first round...
...El Salvador does not have campaignspending limits or rules for reporting sources of campaign funds...
...On the whole, the FMLN's campaign was somewhat defensive and vague with details...
...According to a February 1994 UCA survey, ARENA enjoyed sizable leads over the Left coalition among all age, educational and social groups, including lower-class sectors [see table this page...
...By contrast, the FPL gives priority to developing the Left's political base...
...Thus in the campaign leading up to the runoff, the ex-official voice of the FMLN only ran ads for ARENA...
...The two organizations ran competing slates of candidates for deputies to the Legislative Assembly and the Central American Parliament...
...A study by Hemisphere Initiatives conducted midway through the campaign found that ARENA was spending six to seven times as much money on TV advertising as the Left coalition...
...The anonymity was no doubt related to a United Nations-sponsored agreement among the candidates to wage a "high road" campaign...
...The FMLN and Zamora did, however, surprisingly well in areas of the country such as Santa Ana and Ahuachapin where the Left had had little presence before...
...It was not nearly so burdensome for the incumbent ARENA party to implement the peace accords and simultaneously launch an electoral campaign...
...Adopting a more traditional Marxist perspective, the FPL emphasizes the need to control the state to ensure full compliance with the peace accords and develop an economic base...
...Analysts at El Salvador's Jesuit Central American University (UCA) early on criticized the tendency of guerrilla leaders to favor behind-the-scenes bargaining with the Cristiani government over popular mobilization as a method for ensuring compliVol XXVIII, No 1 JURY/AUGUST 1994 7 Vol XXVIII, No 1 JULY/AUGUST 1994 7UPDATE / EL SALVADOR ance with the accords...
...Because parties do not know how many votes they are going to get, they borrow against their eventual totals, based on 70% of votes received in the previous election...
...These ads marked the dark side of the ARENA campaign...
...Based on a "systematic study," the UN human rights monitoring group ONUSAL estimated that 25,000 people who tried to vote were unable to do so during the first round...
...Fears that ARENA's strength and the Left's disunity may lead to a one-party state are, however, premature...
...The alliance responded by pulling all its ads from Venceremos...
...Given these circumstances, the FMLN did remarkably well...
...Perhaps the most unpleasant dispute involved the ERP's Radio Venceremos (the official voice of the FMLN throughout the war...
...Thus, key sectors of the FMLN's base of support have received few tangible benefits from the peace process, further undermining the Left's credibility...
...ARENA's majority in the Assembly and its firm control of municipalities will enhance its already awesome institutional power...
...First, the time-consuming crises in the peace accords were generally the result of p at San Sal- the government's footdragging on implementation-doing less, not more...
...The FMLN and their allies in the Democratic Convergence have, at times, also been at loggerheads...
...The fate of the landtransfer program and the new police force hangs in the balance...
...The ARENA party easily swept all three elections...
...Abiding by a previous agreement among the candidates not to engage in personal attacks, Venceremos refused to run an unsigned paid advertisement for the FMLN-Democratic Convergence alliance in April because it denigrated Calder6n Sol...
...Almost totally ignoring the Christian Democrats, ARENA focused its attack on the Left...
...Adding to the logjam, high-level decisions must be negotiated among the leadership of the five parties that make up the FMLN...
...On election day, badly organized voting centers and the mysterious absence of names from voting rolls prevented even more people from voting...
...Moreover, the economy, while not in great shape, had left most people better off than or in the same condition as two years ago...
...At the municipal level, the Left was united in some places and divided in others...
...ARENA also won 212 of the 262 municipal councils...
...The end result was a formidable barrier of distrust among Salvadorans...
...upper middle class than among the rural poor...
...The center has collapsed, and Salvadoran society remains as polarized as before...
...Paradoxically, although a rural military force with a peasant army, the FMLN fared better in the cities...
...From the outset, the former guerrillas did not make enough effort to deepen popular understanding of and involvement in the peace process...
...Identifying itself with social-democratic ideology, it favors forging alliances with middle-class elements and "modernizing" entrepreneurs...
...ARENA's lavish spending did not substantially widen the gap indicated by pre-election polls, nor did the Left have the wherewithal to narrow the gap...
...People lined u II to try to obtain their voting cards...
...In El Salvador, the killing of a politically prominent figure would no doubt have a considerably greater chilling effect than an assassination in a country with a less bloody history...
...A bumper sticker proclaiming "patria si, comunismo no" in the colors of the right-wing, nationalist ARENA George Vickers is director of the Wash- ington Office on Latin America (WOLA...
...Some NA6CIA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 6UPDATE / EL SALVADOR 74,000 had their applications rejected, and nonexistent notification methods meant that several times that number-whose applications were approved-never received voting cards...
...Many people were unable to get voting cards...
...To varying degrees, the five parties which make up the FMLN have shed their identification with "Marxism-Leninism...
...Making matters worse, the military made a show of force on election day by patrolling many rural highways...
...Because of delays in recruiting, training and deploying the PNC, however, the entire western part of El Salvador and much of San Salvador-areas where the majority of eligible voters live-were still patrolled by the old National Police on election day...
...he Left began the campaign at a serious disadvantage because the peace accords were not implemented in a full and timely manner...
...The FMLN voted 3-2 to support Zamora, and Villalobos accepted the choice...
...The FMLN's Achilles' heel, however, has been lack of unity...
...The election became a fight between Right and Left, and the results were not good news for the Left...
...The future of the accords is also very much in doubt...
...Few incidents of violence had marred the last three months of the campaign period, he noted, and the first round of voting had gone relatively peacefully...
...In prior elections ARENA demonstrated a base support of 400,000 to 500,000 votes...
...In the presidential race, they clearly did not...
...ARENA had by far the best financed and best organized campaign...
...The hand then sketches a third smaller figure identified as "me...
...Structuraladjustment policies have had a soft landing in El Salvador because of significant foreign aid for post-war reconstruction and high levels of remittances from Salvadorans in the United States...
...party, but without ARENA's name, began appearing before the second round of voting on April 24...
...Its presidential candidate Armando Calder6n Sol nearly received the 50% needed to win on the first round (against six other candidates...
...Now that the elections are over, the divisions within the FMLN are likely to become more intractable...
...Zamora placed well ahead of the Christian Democratic presidential candidate in the first round, and the FMLN won 21 seats in the Legislative Assembly compared to the Christian Democrats' 18...
...After a 3-2 decision by FMLN leaders to boycott leadership positions to protest procedural changes that enhanced ARENA's control of the Assembly, the ERP and the National Resistance (RN) struck a deal with ARENA making the ERP's Ana Guadelupe Martinez vice-president and the RN's Eduardo Sancho a secretary of the Assembly...
...By contrast, in December, ONUSAL's human rights division issued a report which concluded that the humanrights situation had seriously deteriorated during the latter part of 1993...
...It argues that the FMLN must establish a clear political identity if it is to win power later on...
...Meanwhile, the Left consistently ranked ahead of the Christian Democrats in the polls...
...Taking into account people who had not received vot- Electoral proc ing cards, those pre- vador's city ha...
...It confronted the daunting task of converting a guerrilla front forged on the battlefield into a viable political party...
...Other ads showed scenes of war from a decade earlier and warned that voting for the Left could bring a return of the conflict...
...It is difficult, if not impossible to measure the impact of such violence on the electoral process...
...ARENA entered the election with considerable advantages, among them the benefits of incumbency...
...The elections were the first since the January 1992 peace treaty which ended over a decade of civil war, the first in which all political groupings participated, and the first in which the three levels of elections coincided in the same year...
...The organization was a novice at electoral politics...
...Polls revealed that at least 20% of the electorate viewed the FMLN with some degree of hostility, blaming it, rather than ARENA, for the war and economic destruction...
...A child's voice-over says "this is mommy," and goes on to draw a second male figure identified as "daddy...
...vented from voting may have totaled 20% of the number who did cast ballots...
...Opposition groups, other observer missions, and many reporters put the number as high as 75,000...
...ARENA will likely cite its electoral victory as evidence that the people accept the government's interpretation of compliance...
...The group has adapted to peace and the rapid political change in Central America and the world by revamping its ideology, party structure, and public image...
...Unclear signs, confusingly ordered voting tables, faulty transportation-in general, procedures that made things more difficult for the poor and less educated-all hindered the process...
...in the 1994 elections it garnered well over 800,000...
...Although he asserted he had solutions, the ads themselves did not indicate what these might be...
...The outcomes of a small number of municipal races as well as one or two deputy seats may, however, have been affected...
...This has occupied the time and attention of the FMLN's top leadership for most of the past two years, diverting its energies away from election preparations...
...Did the "irregularities" alter the results...
...The FMLN's posture did not help matters...
...Villalobos argued that Rodriguez would broaden the Left's electoral appeal and lure financial support from sectors of the elite...
...The drawing of "me" has only one leg, and the small voice says that this is the result of a terrorist mine...
...Disagreement between the two parties flared up over the choice of a presidential candidate for the FMLN-Democratic Convergence alliance...
...The ERP viewed winning the 1994 elections as secondary and possibly even harmful to the country's stability...
...This slickly-produced anonymous ad was shown frequently on Salvadoran television in the last weeks before the March 20 elections in which nearly 1.45 million Salvadorans cast ballots for president and vice-president, deputies to the Legislative Assembly, and members of municipal councils...
...It accused the FMLN of standing for oldfashioned "failed ideas with a tragic history," and warned that a Left victory would usher in an economic debacle...
...Its campaign platform was a blend of anti-Left rhetoric, a trumpeting of ARENA government achievements, and a populist promise of good things to come...
...In his ads, Zamora detailed how the country's economic problems made common people suffer...
...The party's production team was nimble...
...What has happened, instead, is a consolidation of power by the Right and a hastened fragmentation of the Left...
...Pre-election polls indicated that a majority of Salvadorans believe that death squads still operate with impunity...
...Meanwhile, ONUSAL is increasingly a lame duck, and its ability to pressure for compliance will dwindle...
...ARENA won 39 seats in the 84-member Legislative Assembly, giving it-together with its ally the National Conciliation Party (PCN)-a one-vote majority...
...By election day, the FMLN claimed an organized presence in 252 S. out of El Salvador's 262 municipalities...
...The Calder6n Sol message was taken to the voters via a massive media campaign which far outstripped that of its rivals...
Vol. 28 • July 1994 • No. 1
