The Cousins' Republic

...TraHE UNITED STATES CONDITIONED ITS 1 ratification of the treaties on Panama's adopting a "democratic" form of government, clearly in the hope that Panama's civilian politicians would prove more malleable than the nationalist Torrijos...

...The social democratic Popular Action Party (PAPO) ran Dr...

...Any doubts about the government's rightward trend were put to rest in 1984 when the PRD brought the oligarchy's Liberal and Republican parties into its National Democratic Union (UNADE) coalition, along with the business-oriented Labor Party (PALA) which, like the PRD, is a creature of the military...

...As elsewhere in Latin America, Panama's PDC is a middle-class reformist party...

...It began with the physical liquidation of Torrijos and now would like to liquidate his economic and social program...

...First vice presidential candidate Erick Arturo Delvalle-later Reagan's cause c6l6bre-was a businessman who made millions in sugar, television and thoroughbred horses...

...Embassy and Southern Command, and most of the media...

...Eleven days after Arias took office, a military coup forced him to flee to the Canal Zone...

...The Christian Democrats are a different kettle of fish...

...7 Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets, raising barricades, stoning buildings and burning automobiles...

...interference...

...As planning minister, Barletta had been the brains behind the strengthening of the international banking center and the transnational services platform...

...His death deprived the opposition of its only legitimate spokesperson, and vastly improved the government's chances of winning at the polls...

...enmity by providing the Sandinistas with material aid in their struggle against Somoza, and was a major obstacle to U.S...

...In the "cousins' republic," as it was commonly called, such disputes as now divide the elite were mediated by the United States...

...They wanted the Defense Forces to return to their pre-Torrijos role as guarantor of elite rule...

...But once Delvalle turned on Noriega (apparently at Elliott Abrams' request) and was dismissed, the business leaders, the PDC and MOLIRENA-making up the majority of the opposition-followed President Reagan's lead and called for the reinstatement of the government they had been fiercely struggling to oust...

...Hoyos of the Peruvian Air Force, died in similar "accidents...

...Torrijos sought to build a new political system in which the poor would participate but the military would rule in their name...

...and three leftist parties ran Jos6 Rendn Esquivel (PRT), Ricardo Barria (PST) and Carlos del Cid (P del P) respectively...

...As Gabriel Garcia Mdrquez put it, "Central America lost its great moderator...

...Arias' death seems to have ended all hope for a negotiated settlement prior to the elections still scheduled for May 1989...

...Noriega's great achievement has been to hang on to power with so many lined up against him...

...Although Torrijos clearly undercut the oligarchy's political power (parties were banned), he also built an alliance with a sector of the elite by developing a center for international banking and related transnational services which became the dynamo of Panama's growing economy...

...G ENERAL NORIEGA, MEANWHILE, SEEMS to have consolidated the support of the Defense Forces, after the U.S.-inspired coup attempt on March 16 provided him with an opportunity to identify and purge dissidents...

...In foreign policy, a junior role in Contadora took the place of frontal attacks on U.S...

...It even enjoyed the support of the U.S...

...UNADE nominated World Bank vice-president Nicolhs Ardito Barletta for president...

...Most of them were drawn by the charisma of ADO candidate Amulfo Arias Madrid, who at 82 had been thrice elected president, as many times overthrown, and seemed virtually immortal...

...Carlos Ivan Zufiiga...

...This is the latest version of a battle that has raged for much of Panama's independent life...

...But an important sector of the ruling party, the Torrijos Lives Movement, put out a warning that would prove to be prophetic: A process of "Reaganization" of the country is underway...

...Torrijos earned U.S...

...The Left is small and divided, with the communist People's Party (PdelP) offering the government unbridled support, the Revolutionary Workers Party (PRT) giving it critical support, and the Trotskyite Socialist Workers Party (PST) first taking a stance parallel to that of the Civic Crusade, then working with the antiimperialist and anti-military Popular Civic Movement (MCP) headed up by Dr...

...He cloaked class and race divisions under the banner of national unity, focusing Panama's nationalist tradition on the canal treaty negotiations with the United States which had been underway since 1964.1 Torrijos instituted a program of labor, agrarian, political and social reforms that responded to the needs of the poor, while directing the embryonic popular movement towards official channels...

...vain old Uncle Sam sought to play favorites with whichever nephew claimed to love him most...

...He has done so by knowing how to ignite Panamanian pride, the essence of the country's past and the key to its future...

...We are facing an accelerated race towards the past in which democracy is viewed simply as the pre-1968 political system.' CHALLENGING UNADE WAS THE DEMOcratic Opposition Alliance (ADO), which garnered the support of less profitable business interests, such as landowners, real estate interests and non-export merchants, as well as sectors of the middle class, unorganized workers and poor campesinos...

...Until 1968, when the National Guard rose up to put an end to oligarchic rule, Panamanian politics were nothing but family rivalries within the ruling caste...

...While the PPA was the personal vehicle of the old caudillo, MOLIRENA is a political quilt sewn from dissident patches of the oligarchic Liberal and Republican parties and from the defunct Third Nationalist Party...

...The other is the rhetoric of the opposition, which promises a democracy more formal than real...

...Workers no longer had to contain their demands, nor did the oligarchy have to check its desire to govern without intermediaries...

...In July 1981, an airplane carrying Gen...

...Under pressure from the United States and in the context of an economic recession and fiscal crisis, the government weakened agrarian policy, eliminated the system of local representation and restored the pre-1968 Legislative Assembly...

...ADO did have the support of some of the media and the ideologues in the Reagan Administration, but when it promised to try military officers for human rights abuses, it picked a fight with a powerful enemy...

...In 1977, Torrijos signed treaties with President Jimmy Carter by which the Canal would be turned over to Panama in the year 2000...

...More importantly, Torrijos' program gave birth to a "military-business complex" which would dominate Panama's politics long after his demise...

...Evidence of fraud abounded...

...The outlines of next year's campaign are already evident in the two strains of crisis discourse broadcast to the Panamanian people...

...and in 1983 a referendum on constitutional amendments was approved...

...His running mates were made of similar cloth...

...Since the crisis began in earnest in June 1987, it has become ever clearer that the government and the opposition have no fundamental policy disagreement...

...Despite such strident slogans as "Let us drive away from our shores the threat of violent and enslaving Castro-communism...

...Despite its name and the membership of dozens of professional, civic and business organizations, the real movers and shakers behind the Crusade are the major political parties which united to contest the 1984 elections: PPA, MOLIRENA and PDC...

...imperialism...

...Arias towered over Panama's politics for 50 of the country's 85 years of independent life...

...But neither side addresses the deeper crisis of Panamanian society: its poverty and underdevelopment...

...Heavily influenced by the right wing of the Christian Democratic Intemational, it is one of the most conservative of Central America's PDCs...

...Of the 12 other parties, seven received less than 3% of the vote and thus were ruled off the ballot...

...The Labor Party (PALA), the next strongest party in the ruling UNADE coalition, has adopted a more conciliatory attitude towards the opposition...

...7. Four days after being forcibly retired as second-in-command of the Defense Forces, he accused Gen...

...Paredes) and the officer who was second-in-command until 1987 (Col...

...troops and Canal Zone residents killed 21 Panamanian demonstrators and wounded over 400...

...But with his death in August, the PPA lost its drawing card and its strength...

...According to the official results, BarLeaflets have become the opposition's press JULY/AUGUST 1988 -- -- ------- ----PANAMA letta won by only 1,713 votes...

...Instead, internecine struggles over how to continue ruling Panama only grew worse, until they boiled over in June of last year...

...Most of these were new progressive parties with few resources...

...The military founded the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) to carry forth its policies, and a civilian regime drawn from the new party was inaugurated...

...The Cousins' Republic 1. The United States agreed to renegotiate the canal treaty following the January 1964 "flag riots," in which U.S...

...6 The opposition protested bitterly, but little came of it...

...Without specifying just what is negotiable, it is as firm as the PRD in rejecting U.S...

...Denied victory again in 1948, Arias was installed by a coup in 1949, but was impeached and banned from public life a year later...

...Within months, two other key opponents of U.S...

...Noriega's predecessor as commander-in-chief (Gen...

...Noriega, they had their differences...

...Besides Arias's Authentic Panamanian Party (PPA), ADO's principal members were the Liberal Republican Nationalist Movement (MOLIRENA) and the Christian Democratic Party (PDC...

...The one exception, the PPA, continued insisting on the immediate enthronement of Arnulfo Arias, and in practice pulled out of the Crusade...

...the centrist Popular Nationalist Party (PNP) ran ex-commander of the National Guard Rub6n DArio Paredes...

...UNADE's candidate for second vice president was the Liberal Roderick Esquivel, an expert in political fraud and intrigue, tied to landowning and merchant interests...

...In that election the poor intruded on Panama's Church-sponsored food line in Panama City PANAMA The grand master of Panamanian politics: Arnulfo Arias elite political scene with increasing demands from workers, peasants and other dispossessed...

...UNADE had several sources of support: the govemment, the Defense Forces, the business class linked to transnational interests, the traditionally torrijista public employees and grass-roots leaders as well...

...ADO did not put forth a specific platform...

...The loyal PRD-"Gen...

...His election to the presidency in 1941 prompted a military coup, since his desire to nationalize the canal-as well as his favorable attitude towards Hitler-were frowned upon by the United States...

...6. The voters did give more votes to Arias' Authentic Panamanian Party than to any other, with the ruling PRD at its heels...

...Many thought the 1984 elections would build sufficient consensus among politicians, businessmen and the United States, to carry through the modernization begun under Torrijos...

...Only after several purges, when Omar Torrijos Herrera became strongman of the Guard and government, did it become clear that this coup would be unlike any other...

...As might be expected, the Republican Party of ex-president Delvalle is to all practical purposes out of UNADE...

...W HEN COL...

...5. There were other candidates...

...Diaz Herrera), as well as a part of the officer corps who were loyal only a few months ago, are now against the strongman...

...Mario Ztifiiga, who led demonstrations against the IMF austerity package in 198485...

...Until February, the Crusade was able to muster a great degree of unity...

...They differ only on who should hold the reins of power...

...T HE SCENE WAS SET FOR THE GREAT political battle of 1984, the first direct presidential and vice-presidential elections in 16 years.' The dispute for power between the military-business alliance and the old oligarchy was to be settled at the polls...

...His party, the Republican, is a family clan which ceases to exist between elections...

...Panama's economic elites and their foreign mentors pushed hard for a return to business-as-usual politics, where votes are bought, manipulated and influenced by the powerful...

...One sign of the decomposition of torrijismo were frequent changes in the nation's leaders...

...He resigned from the government in October 1978, paving the way for the return of legal political parties...

...policy, President Rold6s of Ecuador and Gen...

...Noriega of being involved in the death of Gen...

...No candidates have been put forth on either side, although the name of Noriega himself has been bandied about...

...Six of the seven that survived were traditional old-style oligarchic parties from the pre-Torrijos period...

...Torrijos crashed suspiciously on the slopes of Cerro Marta during a ten-minute flight and the gradual transition of Panama's society was thrown abruptly off course.' The balance between the military and the civilian government was lost, and the only political leader who could have beaten Amulfo Arias at the polls was gone...

...After his death, Torrijos' program unraveled...

...In addition, a cohort of bureaucrats and businessmen, many of them beneficiaries of Torrijos' policies, now wave white handkerchiefs with the Crusade on Panama City's exclusive Calle 50 or lobby against Noriega in the halls of the Pentagon, the State Department or the White House...

...Noriega is not negotiable"' '-remains in control of the Legislative Assembly, most municipalities and most cabinet positions...

...His uncle Max was vice-president in the 1960s and led a coup attempt in 1967...

...Many view it as the opposition party of the future which, with the demise of Amulfo Arias, will inherit his base of popular support...

...In three years there were four presidents, three commanders of the National Guard (which became the Defense Forces in 1983) and several complete changes in the leadership of the official party, the PRD...

...A rancher, coffee grower and member of the oligarchy, Arias was at once nationalist, pro-United States, pro-fascist and populist, but above all immensely proud of being one of the last remaining caudillos in Latin America...

...The UNADE slate is center-Right...

...One is the PRD's neotorrijista rhetoric promising to reweave a process which is hopelessly unraveled...

...Other components of his government, meanwhile, have not been such easy partners...

...In 1968, the legendary populist triumphed once more...

...Rather, the campaign churned out an unending stream of snippets from "The Leader's" half-century of political speech-making...

...By the end of the 1970s, Torrijos' rule had achieved economic growth and modernization, living standards had improved and large sectors of the poor were brought into the political system...

...All the members of the UNADE slate in the last elections-Barletta, Delvalle and Esquivel-have been pushed out of office and into the opposition...

...Even the parties toed the line, although, beyond the goal of removing Gen...

...The man who managed to consolidate power was Manuel Antonio Noriega, chief of the Defense Forces as of 1983...

...Although the National Guard emerged in 1968 as the only force capable of maintaining the status quo, it had no social base of support nor any coherent program of government...

...Noriega has sung all the high notes of the nationalist hymn: the fatherland under attack, imperial arrogance, the lyrical and emotional value of land, ethnicity and culture...

...When those who dispute power eventually reach a settlement, the poor will be no more than spectators and victims of whatever deal is finally struck...

...The National Guard, still the center of gravity of Panamanian politics, and Omar Torrijos, the hub of that center, chose to drop out of sight...

...For the time being, Panama's poor seem to be mesmerized by the political battle between Noriega and his foes...

...4. Movimiento Torrijos Vive, February 1984...

...2. Most Panamanians blame the United States...

...The demonstrators, mostly students, had attempted to peacefully raise Panamanian flags within the Zone, in accordance with a 1963 U.S.-Panama agreement...

...ROBERTO DIAZ HERRERA DETOnated the current political crisis with his accusations against Noriega, he unleashed pent-up tension at all levels of Panamanian society...

...UJ LY/AUGUST 1988 The oligarchy's parties faced stiff competition after 1936 from the Authentic Panamanian Party of Arnulfo Arias Madrid, who died in August of this year...

...The opposition moved quickly to harness anti-government sentiment, forming the National Civic Crusade to direct anti-government activities...

...And despite widespread protests, they lobbied successfully REPORT ON THE AMERICASfor the imposition of an unpopular International Monetary Fund stabilization plan...

...While the treaties did not fulfill most Panamanians' aspirations for total sovereignty, they did put an end to the pact of national unity that Torrijos had been able to enforce during their negotiation...

...And the poor will then face once again the need to build their own alternative, where democracy and nationalism are more than the empty rhetoric of politicians...

...Torrijos, the murder of Left opposition figure Hugo Spadafora, the electoral fraud of 1984, and the 1985 resignation of President Barletta...

...Both would like the people to forget the 1984 elections, and all of Panama's electoral history for that matter, where the parties of the rich treated voters as consumers to be swindled with empty marketing techniques...

...The military has changed its politics, attacking the fundamentals oftorrijismo...

...3. Legislative electionshad been held in 1972, 1978 and 1980...

...plans for the region...

...a plebiscite on the Canal Treaties was held in 1978...

...The elections held in May and June were tumultuous, and the vote-counting even more so...

...The Republican and Liberal parties showed little strength, as did the three Left parties...

...It pulled the teeth from the Labor Code, and cut back progressive health, education and housing programs...