BRAZIL Has Civilian Government Failed?
Dassin, Joan
March marks the third anniversary of Brazil's civilian government, which succeeded two decades of military rule. Yet initial enthusiasm for the "New Republic" has given way to blanket...
...366% inflation...
...In the cities, a "siege mentality" has emerged...
...Still, whoever runs, the very fact that an election is held will restore confidence that the country is following a demo9through a parliamentary system...
...Petty Partisanship at Fault Just as government policymakers have not been able to improve economic conditions, weak political institutions have not been equal to the task of consolidating the new democracy...
...Not the least are increasing rural and urban violence...
...Still, full "normalization" of relations with the international financial community will take REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 8time, while the domestic situation worsens...
...In the 14 months since the Cruzado Plan's collapse, three finance ministers have been unsuccessful in curbing runaway inflation and managing the domestic and foreign debt...
...According to the 1987 Amnesty International Report, 298 killings related to land disputes were documented in 1986...
...The combination of adverse economic conditions and a weak government set against a backdrop of heightened social tensions and unprecedented explosions of civil violence, has created the widespread perception that Brazil is becoming "ungovernable...
...Yet the final deci taken by Congress...
...Enthusiasm is waning This latest alignment critical in determining whe tial elections are actually h 1987 the PMDB govem country's most important withdrawn their support year term in favor of ele after the new constitution proved...
...Despite disenchantment with politicians in general and the Sarney government in particu*See "Stabilization Shock in Brazil" by Helen Shapiro and Gesner Oliveira, Report on the Americas March/April 1987...
...Even the political gain that might have followed the February 1987 declaration of a partial moratorium on foreign debt payments was lost because the government acted out of financial necessity, not political strength...
...Army minister Gen...
...Perpetual candidate Leonel Brizola, former Rio governor and head of the Democratic Labor Party, has fervent supporters and equally determined detractors, especially among the military...
...Despite civilian rule, the police still torture and deliberately kill criminal suspects...
...It is the system's failure to meet these expectations, in fact, that has created so much disappointment...
...Hyperinflation and stagnation have plagued the economy since the November 1986 collapse of the Cruzado Plan, which at first had halted inflation and brought unprecedented popularity to President Jos6 Sarney.* Near paralysis of the political system has delayed the approval of the new constitution...
...In elections could be held cratic course...
...As in economic affairs, repeated policy failures in the social area have created great impatience with the political system, weak in its own right...
...1988 predictions are equally grim: an estimated 12% growth of GDP...
...The very prospect of agrarian reform has led to an extremely successful countermovement...
...Publicly, Army spokesmen have denied plans for a coup, while Air Force minister Otivio Moreira Lima insisted that "the legal democratic path is the only alternative...
...Sobering Indicators Yet the situation deserves close analysis...
...A Shrinking Mandate On November 15, the zation" committee-still by the very "hist6ricos" t lost power to the pro-Sarnm within the assembly, appr4 constitution that will lim mandate to four years...
...Jolo Baptista Figueiredo and former Air Force minister Dl1io Jardim de Matos...
...Short of platitudes or a leap of faith, there can be no guarantees that this situation will or even can be reversed...
...Neither has been subjected to serious scrutiny in the constituent assembly...
...Joan Dassin is a staff associate at the Social Science Research Council and has recently returned from a trip to Brazil...
...In fact, the country's political mood has swung wildly since early 1984, when millions of Brazilians first demonstrated for direct elections...
...But by early 1988, it appeared that Sarney had managed to provoke a split within the PMDB, resulting in a new coalition of PMDB conservatives and center-to-Right politicians that were promising support for a five-year presidential term...
...Same pressing for an early v amendment, but the Congr began voting on the final the new constitution in ear has so far refused to rev procedures...
...The assembly's "systematization" committee finished a draft last November, but ideological and partisan differences have led to numerous revisions and procedural delays...
...Most worrisome is the military's may prove role in this transitional period...
...and virtually no rise in foreign reserves, despite the moratorium...
...All the same, high expectations for civilian government and a democratic system persist despite the current pessimism...
...1987 economic indicators were sobering: 3% growth of the GDP...
...and lagging private and multinational investment due to political uncertainty...
...He openly attempted to use cabinet posts as bargaining chips to increase his influence within the constituent assembly...
...Predictably, the situation has fueled rumors of military intervention...
...Seen within a longer time frame, the present crisis is just one more low point in the erratic process of liberalization and transition...
...amendment would permit year term, but it must be the full Congress...
...Still, the military could be equally displeased by a presidential system if Brizola-still the presidential frontrunner-were elected...
...Presumaar pressure bly a prompt end to Sarney's term that case, might placate those lawmakers who as early as would reduce the president's power MARCH/APRIL 1988 November 1988, and Sarney will be forced to leave office in March 1989...
...While Brizola may have changed with the times, and may even forge alliances with certain sectors within the military, others in the armed forces remain unforgiving of his role in the civilian-military power struggle of the late 1950s to mid-1960s.* "Pre-Anarchy" Speculation about the military's views has also taken the form of persistent rumors and press accounts of plots against the government...
...According to official statistics, the Sho Paulo military police shot dead 220 people in the first 9 months of 1986, while civil police have been charged with the routine use of torture during criminal investigations...
...A less incluA proposed sive measure was finally approved...
...Will en presiden- the armed forces accept the decisions held...
...Direct intervention would be politically costly, since whoever governs will confront intractable economic and social problems...
...Already, the government has glimpsed a decline in the 1987 $11 billion trade surplus, to $9.5 billion...
...Given this climate, it is not surprising that Sarney's agrarian reform plan has been a dismal failure...
...The group, which has denounced the current political situation as "pre-anarchy," met in the air force ministry in October 1987 to consider military intervention...
...The full Congress will also vote on the drafting committee's recommendation for a parliamentary system, which would effectively shorten Sarney's term by forcing him to immediately divide his powers with a prime minister elected by Congress...
...Landowners hired thugs to threaten rural community leaders, trade unionists, lawyers and Church activists...
...Many voters wish Sarney gone, but have no candidate to replace him...
...With powerful supporters throughout the country, the group has taken a leading role in the resurgence of the organized Right...
...Quite apart from any statistical rise in urban crime, fear has increased among middle sectors long accustomed to slum-dwellers keeping their distance...
...Perhaps the strongest argument against military intervention stems from the fact that the institution already enjoys considerable prerogatives and influence in crucial policy decisions...
...It is true that the constitutional process has sparked debate over such broad social issues as labor codes and women's rights...
...By late of the constituent assembly...
...Observers concur that only dramatic provisions in the new constitution could possibly prevent more violence...
...Throughout this process, the assembly has projected an image of petty partisanship, not leadership, with lawmakers' personal and political interests placed before those of the nation...
...At present, there are few prospects for a peaceful solution to the land question...
...The length of the presidential mandate is still in doubt, creating political instability and an uncertain climate for investment...
...Landowners Hire Thugs Even if a new civilian government comes to power by 1989, it will face tremendous challenges...
...If Sarney cann issue, his fragile coalitio lapse under heavy popul for a four-year term...
...Originally supporting a fively March- year mandate for Sarney and often in'erse voting tervening on the president's behalf, by iot force the late 1987 they were said to support n may col- early presidential elections...
...Democracy on Trial This social violence is another critical test for Brazil's democracy...
...Yet the seemingly interminable discussion over the length of the president's term and the respective advantages of the presidential or parliamentary system has claimed primary attention...
...Wages and domestic demand are expected to remain low, while inflation is predicted to reach 400...
...At the very least, this should be a reminder not to underestimate the tenacity with which so many Brazilians maintain their democratic aspirations...
...In late February Brazil signed a preliminary agreement with its principal commercial creditors, and some analysts predict that an IMF accord is in the offing...
...And even though the country has somewhat more autonomy than its smaller neighbors, domestic development planning is still constrained by the dictates of the international economic and political community...
...Another newspaper report indicated that the National Information Service has identified alleged anti-government plotters, among them former President Gen...
...It may even field a presidential candidate, the charismatic UDR leader Ronaldo Caiado...
...Private militias were reportedly organized to threaten and attack rural workers...
...a 43% spending overshoot by the central government...
...Those who are not satisfied with the loss of control of the government," Lima maintained, "should try to win it back through the democratic process . . . ballot boxes...
...lar, opinion polls taken in late 1987 indicate majority support for immediate presidential elections...
...Added to this typically Latin American picture is a widely recognized need for radical restructuring of the Brazilian state sector to achieve better governance and sustainable growth...
...Blatant corruption among officials has weakened the government still further...
...The news is bleak on all fronts...
...Whenever elections are held, a direct race for president-the last was held in 1960-will almost certainly boost Brazil's political mood...
...The Folha de Silo Paulo reported that retired military "hardliners" have formed a committee "for the defense of democracy...
...Operating legally-although tacitly supporting violence-the Democratic Rural Union (UDR) has pressured congressmen to water down reform proposals...
...The economic slide brought on by the severe recession of the early 1980s and the seemingly insoluble external debt crisis have compounded the inequities of the past, including skewed development and a virtually unparalleled concentration of privilege and wealth...
...Among the gravest of Sarney's failures has been an inability to formulate coherent economic policy...
...controlled Similarly, an early proposal to grant hat recently amnesty to soldiers expelled from the ey coalition armed forces for opposing the 1964 moved a draft coup provoked a near confrontation it Samey's with civilian legislators...
...Yet initial enthusiasm for the "New Republic" has given way to blanket disillusionment, even despair...
...Even foreign trade, the one plus for the Brazilian economy in 1987, may prove less profitable in 1988...
...Sarney, for his part, has singlemindedly pursued a five-year mandate and lobbied against the proposed parliamentary system which would restrict his executive power...
...At stake ors of the is whether the military can be subordistates had nated to "the initiative of the constitufor a five- tional powers...
...ctions soon Le6nidas Pires Gongalves has dehas been ap- clared support for the constituent assion will be sembly, but protested when an initial draft of the constitution deprived the military of its responsibility for internal order, which has proved a license "systemati- to intervene freely in domestic affairs...
...For a time, it looked as if these tactics had failed, because the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), Sarney's ever uneasy ally, had united against him...
...For one, political life is incontestably freer now than under the military...
...The constituent assembly, elected in November 1986 to prepare a democratic constitution, has not yet approved the document...
...Opinion polls reveal contradictory attitudes among voters...
...The government had pledged to distribute land to 1.4 million families from 1986 to 1989, yet by mid-1987 fewer than 20,000 families had been resettled...
...Unfortunately, this response must occur under particularly adverse conditions...
...In Rio, in particular, the recent favela disturbances spilled over onto traditionally "safe" terrain and exacerbated the sense of social chaos, potentially increasing middle class receptivity to "law and order" measures...
...Does this picture add up to a failure of civilian government in Brazil...
...Media bent on exposing corruption and prone to personalized reporting may have in part created this image...
...Reports of systematic torture and illtreatment also surfaced during a number of well-publicized prison riots...
...By all predictions, moreover, the armed forces and intelligence community will retain virtually unchallenged autonomy under the new constitution...
...an equally intractable public sector deficit, which has reduced government investment in infrastructure and basic raw materials...
...While there is much to justify the current pessimism, it is surely too soon to write off Brazilian efforts to create a stable democracy...
...Barring serious internal splits or a breakdown of discipline, there appear to be few incentives for a military takeover...
...him a five- Apparently reluctant to allow Conapproved by gress a stronger hand in controlling y has been military influence within the governote on the ment, the armed forces have strongly ress-which opposed the proposed parliamentary I version of system...
...And if the system cannot respond, there is the risk of an authoritarian solutioncivil or military...
Vol. 22 • March 1988 • No. 2
