Nicaragua: Can the Sandinistas Survive?
ARMSTRONG-Our central question in this ses- sion is whether the Sandinistas can survive. To a large extent, that means will the administration let them survive. What are the administration's...
...There would be too many U.S...
...On the one hand, the Soviet Union has made it clear since the decline of detente that it will not accept-understandably, I think, from their point of view-the idea of linkage, that arms control agreements mean you can control our behavior in other parts of the world...
...Not even a genius can manage an economy with an offi- cial exchange rate of 10 c6rdobas to the dollar, a parallel rate of 29:1 and a free market rate of 280- 300:1...
...there are models to follow-the Soviet Union and others-whether or not they work...
...ARMSTRONG-What do the elections say about the Sandinistas' conception of a transition toward socialism and the management of the economy in the interests of the majority...
...BOROSAGE-In general, the first principle of European policy is that Central America and the Caribbean belongs to the United States...
...ARMSTRONG-Is there likely to be a response from the Europeans that could stay Washington's hand...
...The Cubans have made it clear that Nicaragua cannot count on much Soviet aid-and the great social benefits of the Cuban revolution are reliant on $4 billion of Soviet aid annually...
...Can they provide a real diplomatic buffer...
...Internationally, the Sandinistas gained as a result of the obviously clean conduct of the vote and the manner of their victory, with a lower turnout than expected and a healthy chunk of the vote going to opposition parties...
...Because the policy goal of the administration is not just to make life difficult for the Sandinista regime, not just to punish them for being Sandinistas, but to try to overthrow the Sandinista revolution...
...the SI and the events in Grenada-whose government had not held elections-combined to force the issue quite abruptly...
...JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 37Four More Aersc Four More Years What better way than to free the hemisphere--or at least Nicaragua-from communism, whatever the cost...
...March 2-13 is our International Women's Day Tour to Nicaragua...
...GLEIJESES-I think the hardliners' assumption is that the Soviet Union will not supply more than about $100 million a year in economic aid...
...That seems to be the magic figure...
...What happens to the mass organizations when you revert to a representative Assembly and jettison the old Council of State, which was their highest form of participation in policy decisions...
...it also casts the regional argument in new terms, that "this constitutes a breaking of the balance of forces in the region...
...The Nicaraguan elections and dialogue had a different effect in Europe, and specifically in the SI than they had here...
...From the administration's point of view, a dialogue could be extremely threatening-even more so than Contadora...
...But this administration, especially at its most ideological, sees the problem at a regional level...
...Now the real problem is that Congress has halted the funding for the contras...
...SOL-There are people who under no circumstances will accept any transition to socialism, whether violent or peaceful, radical or gradual-COSEP for example...
...I was stunned by the extent to which social democratic opinion in Bonn, Amsterdam and London, also in France and Scandinavia, was buoyed by the elections...
...SOL-There is another question here, and that is whether one can detect a new attitude from the Soviet Union...
...For me, the criterion for the success of the revolution is not the omnipotence of the Sandinistas or an authoritarian passage to MarxismLeninism, which I do not think would be beneficial to the Nicaraguan people...
...If the contras are knocked out, and if the Sandinistas can consolidate the legitimacy of the elections in Europe-which may be more likely than the administration thinks-then the administration's strategy is in disarray...
...Other people argue that a dialogue would be dangerous for the Sandinistas, but I don't think they can avoid it...
...European socialist leaders are preparing a set of statements, describing how they saw the elections, which they will deliver to liberals in Congress in February...
...If the dialogue does advance, it could even help to foster some genuinely alternative thinking among Democrats in this country...
...HEALEY-All things being equal, we should assume that Congress will refuse to resume the aid, since both houses have to affirm the resumption...
...If that happens, a few intelligent economic measures, plus some substantial loans to ease the balance of payments problem, could have the Nicaraguan economy functioning again as it did from 1979-81, when most people were happy...
...We also know that the administration has been feeling good lately about its war of political maneuver with Nicaragua...
...they have potentially opened up certain political spaces...
...NAIRN-I think it would be a mistake to underestimate their determination to overthrow the Sandinistas...
...If they were somehow convinced that the Soviet Union was not the moving force in Nicaragua, they might be less concerned...
...So with whom do you negotiate...
...The congressional fight around the contras had very little to do with whether Nicaragua was a democracy or whether Cruz was important...
...This is not to restrict discussion of the Sandinistas' conception of political forms to the strictly electoral component they may have in the future...
...We seem to agree that whether for international or domestic reasons, the Sandinistas do need a post-election dialogue...
...That 50-vote margin is really Jim Wright in the house...
...That terminology of balance of forces is usually reserved for discussions of nuclear weapons...
...One group of people argued for a one-day air strike against Nicaragua's oil refinery and storage tanks, which would disrupt the Nicaraguan economy and cause social chaos...
...The overriding factor, clearly, was geopolitics, the war...
...But balanced against this are the enduring realities, which the elections did not affect...
...He can't deliver anything if he agrees with them, and he can only try to discredit them if he disagrees...
...The other measures you have just outlined would only have the effect of harassing the Sandinistas, and those who control the administration's Central America policy would see this as the admission of a very severe defeat...
...That a direct Marxist-Leninist transition is impossible...
...GLEIJESES-The question is whether the election has strengthened the pragmatic current within the National Directorate...
...GLEIJESES-Senator Clark is absolutely right.-It's not a question of money, or even of technical expertise...
...They turned around the Contadora draft treaty-they called it an un-treaty...
...Economically, some people believe that the pragmatic decision is that socialism cannot be built in Nicaragua...
...One question is physical survival: will the Sandinistas remain in power...
...Two years ago he was preIt is difficult to see Cruz as playing anything but a destructive role...
...The major problem facing the Reagan Administration is how a further aid cut will affect the attitude of Honduras...
...Are we about to see the Finlandization of Nicaragua, with all that this implies for El Salvador...
...If he changes his mind, 30-35 Congressmen will go with him, maybe more...
...Norway doubled its aid...
...BOROSAGE-That negative trend has been stemmed...
...From the Soviet point of view, the investment would be much smaller and the political rewards much greater...
...aggression...
...BLACK-I think you underestimate the capacity of the Reagan Administration to deal with that threat...
...And that is exacerbated by the arrival of the Mi-24 helicopters...
...GLEIJESES-I seriously question your sense of the Sandinistas' success in Europe...
...I tend to think that the United States is less afraid of communism per se than it is of Soviet influence...
...ARMSTRONG-What does that say about the prospects for negotiating a political opening...
...The action would be justified on the grounds of striking at "international terrorism...
...In the war of maneuver, the Sandinistas are on an upswing...
...But that commitment has to be weighed against several other factors...
...We know that there is a historical split between the State Department and the so-called "Super Hawks" among the civilian leadership of the Department of Defense, and that this is as tense as ever in the Reagan Administration...
...BLACK-In the diplomatic sphere, I think the SI remains ambivalent and divided...
...The capacity to bring it down by means of proxies is insufficient...
...figures show that Nicaragua had the best results in the region in 1983...
...I agree that dialogue could be very important for the Sandinistas...
...For details contact: TROPICAL TOURS 141 East 44th Street, Suite 409, New York, N.Y...
...It cannot change the intentions of the Reagan Administration, so its game is to build as many obstacles as possible in Reagan's path, of which the dialogue is one...
...Equally, it is misleading to see them as the "elections to perfect revolutionary power" which Humberto Ortega outlined in a famous speech in 1980...
...The result of the MIG crisis is not only a clear warning about acceptable levels of weaponry...
...ARMSTRONG-The broader question is the degree to which the Europeans can materially improve the Sandinistas' chances of survival...
...The one thing they don't want is to look as if they can't control the way the world goes...
...Is an agreement at hand on what is tolerable in the region and what is not...
...Somehow, accommodation must take place within the Sandinista regime, so as to find a place for all these forces and pass into a pluralistic form of government...
...The other is an embargo at sea...
...Pastora...
...I would say the Right got what it wanted out of the MIG episode-a presidential commitment to take out the MIGs and backing from the Liberals...
...Without Honduran support, essentially the contras die...
...They feel the Nicaraguans have a new legitimacy...
...If the Soviets are willing to provide military hardware, why should they not go one step further-say, buy Nicaragua's sugar production at favorable prices...
...The form the elections took was remarkable, and I think this reflects a "real moderation" and maturing of the Sandinista project, of the sort we identified earlier in the FMLN...
...After all, the Soviet record on assistance to sympathetic Third World governments is disastrous...
...Just by adjusting the exchange system, you could improve a lot...
...response to Nicaragua, what is remarkable is that we haven't gone in and thrown the Sandinistas out long ago...
...The second principle is that they don't want a war there...
...NAIRN-I think that's right...
...The administration would fight it very fiercely...
...BOROSAGE-I don't think this vote is in the bag by any means...
...ARMSTRONG-And do you think that strategy worked...
...On the other hand, the familiar argument that the Soviet Union would hate to be saddled economically with a second Cuba should be examined...
...The Cubans and the Soviets have both made it clear that they won't come to the defense of Nicaragua...
...Call or write for other dates...
...it has too many opposing forces to deal with...
...The Sandinistas, their supporters and others who oppose Reagan's criminal policy, could use Cruz as a flag to demonstrate the moderation and flexibility of the Sandinistas...
...Some may have argued that it was only strong because of its external backing, but others recognized that it was viable because of its real domestic roots in institutions like the business community, the labor unions and the Catholic Church...
...But a dialogue, a political opening, is different, especially if it involved someone who had credibility in the key international arena...
...Looking at the election, given that over 90% of the incumbents were re-elected, I think you can make a pretty good guess as to the likely voting pattern...
...At the SI bureau meeting after the Grenada invasion, they were very sorry they had ever admitted the NJM as a full member...
...So my conclusion is that it can survive, if by that we mean that the Sandinistas will be in power until the next election, that there is agreement that the opposition has to be taken into account, and that the opposition accepts Sandinista hegemony and is then able to influence the process from within...
...I detect a hardening of French policy toward Central America, which I don't think is due to the pressures of the Reagan Administration or the French socialists' move to the Right since they took power...
...It is clear, and backed by a firm consensus...
...One should take into account the possibility of the Soviet Union increasing its aid if the covert operations continue, in order to provide a serious problem for the administration at relatively low cost...
...The elections and the dialogue may be seen as ways of negotiating the terms of the deal...
...So the only possible path is the democratic one...
...And those are primarily REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 38the hostility of the United States, the slow and incessant bleeding of the economy and the draining of the war if the contra effort continues...
...If I were the administration, I'd be headed into that vote trying to prove that the Sandinistas sabotaged Contadora and then held fraudulent elections, then tell the Congress that taking the pressure off the SanREPORT ON THE AMERICAS 36dinistas removes the only hope of having Nicaragua act reasonably in the region...
...They have to rely on things simultaneously going well on so many fronts-political, military, economic...
...And that has so many obstacles in its way that the transition will not be possible...
...BOROSAGE-The problem with the dialogue is that it reinforces a sense that the nature of the Sandinista government, its very legitimacy, is dependent on the external judgment that the dialogue is yielding results...
...As far as growth in GNP and total production is concerned, U.N...
...Now, as I understand it, Arturo Cruz doesn't have much to say about negotiating the terms for the business class, because he doesn't represent them...
...Justifiably or not, Cruz has become an important actor on the international scene, which is a huge battlefront for Nicaragua...
...We met with a group of German social democrats including Schmidt's former finance minister who are planning all sorts of things from youth brigades in the event of an intervention to ways of getting aid from socialist unions...
...Our guess is that we've probably lost 11 votes, but that still leaves a good margin...
...The decision in this case is clear cut...
...It is false to measure the elections against the largely mythical "commitments" the Sandinistas supposedly made to the OAS in 1979...
...pressure on Nicaragua is money...
...This second option also engages the question of democratic transition, which means having a mandate, having the people behind it, following a sensible formula which does not do undue harm to the economy...
...If the administration can continue to steal from behind the Hondurans' backs, then I think they're in good shape...
...One was the enormous expenditure of energy and political capital, which some in Nicaragua may feel outweighed the gains...
...Relations with the Soviet Union have nothing to do with it...
...If they can't win, my theory is that pragmatism is more important to them than simply pursuing an ideology that makes them look like losers...
...Whether you assume they are designed to overthrow JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 35Four More Years The contra war: Draining the economy the government-as they themselves certainly intend-or just to bleed the Nicaraguans over a long period, either way they are the principal instrument of our policy...
...HEALEY-The SI asks different questions than the Congress...
...casualties, and it would probably mean reviving the draft and diverting troops from other theaters...
...How would it recover...
...I went armed with the argument that this was a demonstration election, like the one in El Salvador, saying you can't call Duarte a democrat and Ortega a fraud...
...mistakes...
...Let's think about the Nicaragua election, because I can't remember a lot of other elections like that in post-revolutionary societies...
...What are the administration's intentions in Nicaragua...
...Though the difficulties of an invasion are undeniable, there is a broader policy decision here: will the administration tuck in its belt and take on the Vietnam syndrome or not...
...If the President, the CIA, the State Department and the Defense Department are bent on overthrowing the Sandinistas, then they're lying to both houses of Congress...
...press as a Soviet-style sham, didn't provide a point where they felt they could safely break off and offer fundamental criticisms of the administration...
...If the contra aid is terminated, or if the contras are seriously weakened in the field, the decision whether or not to "free" Nicaragua may come very early in this term...
...The Soviets would make protest speeches in the U.N., but if the Reagan Administration is serious, they will still keep arms control talks going...
...BLACK-While there were very important domestic political considerations at stake in the elections, the overriding purpose of the exercise was to alter the calculus internationally and provide a buffer against Washington...
...CLARK-Well, there are two ways of looking at this...
...If in fact the Congress holds to a cut-off, that leaves open the question of whether Reagan could get another government to pick up the slack...
...The Sandinistas have to dance, because the tune is set...
...And we know they have practised a third...
...the most important is that the contras, the chosen instrument, can't do it...
...From the point of view of the Sandinista political model, the elections may have left things a little unbalanced, a little uneasy, with question marks over the future role of some of the institutions the Sandinistas had developed...
...NOW MORE THAN EVER, FIND OUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN NICARAGUA Study Spanish While You Learn About the Nicaraguan Revolution First Hand...
...Similarly, I don't think Cruz has any power to stop or start the covert war...
...Over the course of four years, a number of elements combined to change that conception of elections...
...BOROSAGE-If you stop and think about the U.S...
...Prices range from $590 to $900 and include round trip airfare from either Miami or Mexico City, two meals a day, hotel accommodations, bilingual guides and transportation inside Nicaragua and/or Mexico...
...Those pressures built from early 1981 until the latter part of 1983...
...It all depends on how skillfully they dance...
...Then there is the option of direct invasion...
...If he cuts a deal with the Sandinistas, will the businessmen go with him...
...To keep its nose above water, Nicaragua would need roughly $300-400 million...
...Cuba costs them to the tune of $4 billion a year...
...I think one wing of the French Socialist Party now has a strong antipathy toward the Sandinistas...
...Military people have differing opinions on this, but the dominant feeling is that it would be too long, too REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 34I Elections: Opening new political space A revolution under siege...
...This is not an implausible scenario: we may well face it in the next few months...
...If the dialogue means opponents-ruz, Brooklyn Rivera or whoever-accepting Sandinista hegemony within a more open system, then that provokes two key questions: one, how can they expect an opening in the context of U.S...
...The last vote in the House was something like 241177...
...The State Department's desire for a negotiating track has always been a fallback...
...A second group argued that the international costs, especially in Latin America, would be too high...
...I also detect a decline in their activism on the Central America issue since 1980 or 1981, when they were very upset with the administration's policies...
...Or are we about to witness the final assault on Nicaragua...
...Again, what is our consensus...
...We're dealing with alternative perceptions of reality...
...Over the years, the international socialist movement, the Third World, is learning something...
...With C6rdova Rivas...
...One is a Special Forces strike against either MIGs or helicopters or oil depots...
...If the Sandinistas stole the political initiative with a dialogue, I think the administration would see that as intolerable and devote all their energies to undermining it...
...One option for a revolution is to make a violent transition, whatever the social costs, from a capitalist economy like Nicaragua's to a centrally planned one...
...And again, the answer lies in El Salvador, not Nicaragua...
...HEALEY-There is no question that all the major forces in the administration want to overthrow the Sandinista government...
...The elections clearly strengthened the support of some segments of the SI...
...It's hard to see who is left as a potential negotiator beyond Cruz...
...FANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 0 a E 1) C, P v, ;9 d; Four More Years BOROSAGE-We know the Pentagon has staffed out two options...
...The popular election of Daniel Ortega as constitutional president, with a mandate, above the other comandantes, also gives grounds for optimism on the economy...
...STEIN--We started out by asking, "Can the revolution survive...
...HEALEY-I'd be surprised if the Soviets picked up the economic slack...
...ARMSTRONG-How will the recent Nicaraguan elections influence this course of events...
...As long as the Nicaraguan government is under Sandinista hegemony, the attitude of the administration will not change...
...The Sandinistas will remain in power, but not omnipotent, and perhaps not indefinitely...
...The new president will realise that many of the economic problems have mushroomed and that any movement toward socialism has to be gradual, has to take into account the basic character of the economy, with 60% still in private hands...
...The statement that Congress does not support the contra operation would make the Hondurans extremely nervous...
...And he's not the strongest or most enlightened of men...
...Again, you could argue that in two ways-either that this kind of understanding would undercut the arguments of the hardliners in the Reagan Administration, who see Nicaragua ultimately as a Soviet base, or that it would in fact give them a green light to destroy the Sandinistas...
...The administration has shown its greatest dexterity in blunting this kind of initiative...
...So the region is not high on their agenda...
...What were the losses...
...Contrary to the widespread belief that the economy is in ruins, there is nothing that cannot be changed for the better with some modifications...
...sented as the shining hope of Nicaraguan democracy...
...The second, in tandem with that, was the realpolitik of Nicaragua's relationship with the Socialist International (SI) and Contadora...
...It was not just a matter of the Sandinistas being forced to abandon their original blueprint under external pressure...
...Nicaragua has been cut off from loans and credits from the Inter-American Development Bank and from most Western European sources...
...So it is difficult to see Cruz as playing anything but a destructive role...
...My guess is that the people in major positions are committed to overthrowing the Nicaraguan government, but Bob's point is well taken: nothing is written in stone...
...but those SI members who were skeptical-particularly the Latin Americans and the Spanish-may have hardened their doubts...
...This is a country under siege...
...We saw that clearly in the pre-election behavior of the Coordinadora...
...At that point, the arguments of The first principle of European policy is that Central America and the Caribbean belong to the United States...
...Also, the main instrument of U.S...
...How else can they keep up the pressure...
...And two, can they foresee a more open system without a clear decrease in the relative power of what they consider a more sectarian current within the National Directorate...
...The success of a revolution lies in socioeconomic benefits that it brings people, and in their enhanced sense of personal dignity...
...I do think a congressional cut-off of the contras is important...
...At some point these people are going to say, forget it, let's go to Miami...
...Everyone assumes Nicaragua will use those to launch a major offensive against the contras before March to reduce their effectiveness in the field and present Congress with a fait accompli when it returns to vote on the issue...
...Virgilio Godoy...
...They are much more anxious to negotiate a serious arms control deal with the United States than to get mixed up in a difficult and complicated situation in Central America...
...To even refuse the invitation to dance would make the Sandinistas appear intransigent...
...The political costs for the Reagan Administration of doing away with it directly are too high...
...managed to shift the argument on to general Soviet arms, including the helicopters...
...Pastora had a wide constituency in Congress, but he too has been an un-person for over a year now...
...There have to be some who are uneasy at their abdication of real opposition...
...It is a mistake to imagine that they could continue through some kind of immaculate conception...
...They can do the same to anyone who sits down to talk to the Sandinistas...
...It's not a question our Congress ever takes seriously, but the SI does...
...And they were outraged by the suggestion-to COME SEE NEW SOCIETIES IN THE MAKING TRAVEL WITH TROPICAL TOURS We feature a program of sociopolitical tours to Nicaragua and we offer a special opportunity to visit the Guatemalan "refugee camps in Mexico...
...The infighting, we heard, was at an unusually high level...
...But neither ex- perience nor theory offers easy answers about the second kind of transition, the gradual establishment of a socialist economy, which tolerates the continuation of a high degree of private ownership, as NicaBombed out oil tanks at Corinto ragua has...
...It was about whether we were backing a stupid, losing effort...
...CLARK-It is hard, if not impossible, to get unanimity in any administration...
...It is not a potential global crisis that has kept the administration out so far, but a sense of cost in domestic public opinion and perhaps in hemispheric relations...
...The maneuvers in Honduras are practice for a possible invasion...
...They obviously have a large number of other ideas of how democratic process should operate in a revolutionary environment...
...When the administration tried it, it didn't play too well, in part because of the facts that surfaced about Cruz's handlers in Managua not having clean hands.* But for the SI, the issue of democracy and democratic transitions is taken very seriously...
...And that's not something you do lightly...
...I think there is a serious possibility that if it is frustrated by this quandary in Nicaragua, it will seek to play out its ideological agenda elsewhere...
...The third was the Sandinistas' evaluation of the continuing strength and resilience of their domestic political opposition...
...The main gain, however, will be if the much talked about "National Dialogue" succeeds...
...Limited direct actions such as bombing the refinery and other strategic points would be a serious, though still far from crippling blow...
...The administration is not going to have its efREPORT ON THE AMERICAS 40fort to squeeze the Sandinistas determined by Cruz announcing he has made a settlement with them...
...Their strategy toward Nicaragua is so multi-faceted...
...Over the last five years in Nicaragua, almost everyone has become aware of a basic debate, which is not limited to Nicaragua: it is a basic issue in economic theory and political science that goes on among socialists worldwide...
...The election, which was widely characterized in the U.S...
...To me, this raises a question: with U.S.-Soviet talks approaching, do these statements by the United States, together with the increased Soviet role in Nicaragua, mean that something is about to be defined in superpower terms...
...HEALEY-I appreciate Piero's comments on dignity, redistribution of wealth, a better life for the people...
...There is nothing really to negotiate with the Coordinadora or with COSEP...
...I think that is the balance sheet...
...Trade embargoes, economic pressures and so forth are secondary...
...They have shown no desire to confront the United States over Nicaragua in the World Bank, or in the IDB, which they see as an American institution...
...it would be very costly in diplomatic terms...
...It has more to do with the loss of prestige by the Sandinistas in Europe, among SI members and other European parties...
...Edgar Chamorro already did...
...I wouldn't rule out the prospect of the Soviet Union taking a softer line in Nicaragua if they thought there were greater gains on the horizon in overall U.S.-Soviet relations...
...If it enjoyed a popular mandate, if a majority voted for it, if it was sensible, Cruz might not be opposed to it in principle...
...SOL--This is a hard question to answer...
...Who talks about Alfonso Robelo nowadays...
...In a serious way, Cruz speaks to the SI's concerns, even if he doesn't represent major social forces in Nicaragua...
...At the same time, I think the Soviets are attracted to the sphere of influence idea, claiming Eastern Europe and Afghanistan as theirs and acknowledging that the United States has certain interests in this hemisphere...
...There is evidence of that pragmatism in some of the Sandinistas' decisions-for example, the reversal of policy by agriculture minister Jaime Wheelock, who is no longer creating state farms but carrying out the reform on the basis of priJANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 39Four More, t Aers Four More Years vate property...
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...That would have very damaging effects for the European governments domestically...
...I believe that Cruz might be less opposed to a democratic road to socialism...
...And El Salvador is the prime candidate...
...The hardliners who control policy feel that Nicaragua is increasingly weaker, and that if they keep Honduras' support, then there is a good chance that they can eventually bring down the Sandinistas...
...GLEIJESES-Let's be realistic...
...In the aftermath of the elections, will a domestic dynamic be set in motion that allows for an opening of the political process to accommodate further opposition forces-be they Arturo Cruz, or Misurasata, or whoever...
...CLARK-I guess we all agree that the key question is continued congressional funding for the contras...
...In Nicaragua, that coexistence will mean making this into a revolution that can survive but is unsuccessful in its own original terms...
...The amount of money is only a drop in the bucket-$25 or $35 million a year-if he could talk Israel or Saudi Arabia or whoever else into helping the United States this way in return for something else...
...The Europeans see the elections as having been sabotaged by the CIA...
...The level of commitment not to let the Sandinistas live in peace is very great, and it is universal...
...But the administration has a great capacity to declare anyone an un-person when they become politically inconvenient...
...The policy is not written in stone, and that is a contrast to El Salvador, where there is an absolute public commitment not to lose...
...It would be a long, miniature Vietnam...
...I think that virtually rules it out...
...One has the feeling that the Cubans are also skeptical about the feasibility of a MarxistLeninist project in Nicaragua...
...It seems we have reached a tacit agreement that it can, unless it makes significant *Writing in the New York Times, October 21, 1984, Philip Taubman reported administration officials as acknowledging that the business federation COSEP "was in frequent contact with the CIA about the elections...
...The only point would be to expose them...
...As the travel agency for the National Network in Solidarity with the Nicaraguan People, Tropical Tours makes all travel arrangements for groups and individuals...
...They recovered from the shock of the Contadora draft treaty and managed to stop peace from breaking out...
...Just to end, so much of our discussion of Nicaragua's chances for survival has been about the worst of what the United States offers Central America...
...But come January, and the second Reagan term, let's strike a positive note as well as having readers try to figure out how to ward off the barbarians...
...The Prince has to be educated, his wings have to be cut to a certain degree...
...Rivera...
...There may be something in this argument for a number of reasons-like the geopolitical situation, the character of the population and the base of the economy...
...costly...
...So that returns us to the crux of the problem: can revolution and reformism coexist in the region...
...Even so, it is important that the administration has not committed itself publicly to the Sandinistas' overthrow...
...In socialist history, the presence of a serious dissenting opponent signifies something important...
...One of the features of a transition to socialism is that you have to deal with the middle class and the business community to win their cooperation...
...If the administration can't do something in the next few months, their best option is to downplay Nicaragua again...
...The FSLN committed itself then to hold competitive elections, both as a matter of domestic legitimation and to erect a diplomatic wall against Reagan...
...the elections were a threat, but they ruined those pretty well too...
...If the domestic political cost of an invasion is too high, the administration may face the painful choice of abandoning its dream of ousting the Sandinistas...
...Towards the end of the crisis, the Right Miskito refugees in Honduras The statement that Congress does not support the contra operation would make the Hondurans extremely nervous...
...No one who has tried this second course has found it easy...
...If it has, then the dialogue is a strong possibility...
...They are now willing to provide sophisticated military equipment...
...GLEIJESES-When we ask if the Nicaraguan revolution can survive, what does that really mean...
...If not, the dialogue is unlikely and much of the meaning of the election would be lost...
...ARMSTRONG-Our central question in this session is whether the Sandinistas can survive...
...That would be the biggest joke in town...
...If the Nicaraguans take the question of dissent seriously, that has a major impact...
...STEIN-The administration seems to have clear differences on how to up the ante in Nicaragua...
...Here is the most conservative and bellicose of administrations facing a government that is demanding independence in "our" region...
...One way to look at this as the second Reagan term begins is to consider how he and his fellow ideologues intend to make their names in history...
...The issue of democracy never really penetrated...
...Loans to an economy the size of Nicaragua's would be peanuts for the Soviet Union...
...Overall, the elections have made certain things fluid...
...Although I don't think they're altogether clear about the scenario...
...There are still some economic tools at their disposal-ultimately, a full Cuban-style trade embargo, which would be less costly, and potentially more effective, than a sea blockade...
...10017 Telephone: (212) 599-1441 jANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 41 CN E CASA NICARAGUENSE DE ESPAOL, INC...
...And how important were they from the FSLN's point of view...
...This opposition had to be taken into account in any serious resolution of the question of power and transition...
...It was a terrible mistake, because Grenada failed the minimal test of holding elections, which the Nicaraguans just passed...
...And the bait at the moment seems to be El Salvador...
...But in the long term that may be reduced to an empty shell-the flag, the hymn, the beautiful songs...
...France increased its aid...
...GLEIJESES-For the administration it seems critical that the contra operation should be kept going at least at its present level...
...FEINBERG-I don't see the Europeans contributing critical amounts of aid or acting as a check in the multilateral finance institutions...
...To say nothing of the attitude of the contras themselves...
...As usual, the debate is over the acceptable cost of policies, and some of this was visible in the aftermath of the November MIG crisis...
...I was always mystified by what Cruz represented...
Vol. 19 • January 1985 • No. 1
