El Salvador: Can the Duarte Experiment Work?
BLACK-How does the Reagan Administration feel about its performance in El Salvador? And what does it have in mind for its second term beyond a military victory over the guerrillas? SEN. DICK...
...But there is widespread disagreement, or a lack of clarity, about what constitutes victory...
...As I said, it puts the United States in a bind...
...Duarte is offering gracefully what the administration is saying clumsily and distastefully...
...Our discussion here has focussed on the short term...
...This tension makes it hard to separate El Salvador from Nicaragua...
...Endless war JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 23Four More Years Mothers of the disappeared FOOTE-The area in which the administration appears to have made its clearest second term plans is in the auxiliary military realm...
...But he has stood firm against the demands of the coffee growers...
...And this raises another question...
...It's no longer a live issue...
...The army is still too fat and clumsy to respond rapidly to this new maneuverability...
...Duarte sees that line precisely, and so far he has come down on the side of the line that says the guerrillas surrender, albeit gracefully...
...For the moment, then, things are going well...
...ARMSTRONG-Since the peace talks began, the FMLN-FDR has outlined a new set of what they call their "maximum goals...
...So in his continuing need to look successful, I don't think Reagan has any useful alternatives to Duarte...
...It would seem that there has been an effort to buy the collaboration of the Salvadorean Right in a way that runs counter to Duarte's agenda...
...It would be planned suicide...
...Duarte's election is simply unpalatable to the rightist elements in the Army, and to the traditional economic Right-big agro-export capital, the service sector, under the leadership of the National Private Enterprise Association (ANEP...
...An Americas Society Book...
...SOL-It seems to me that the first priority of the Reagan Administration is still to achieve a military victory by proxy, without using U.S...
...Because for Washington, the worst thing for Duarte to do would be to open negotiations with a weak hand...
...And that was a much easier operation than anything we could foresee in Central America...
...The area of press freedoms, for example, is interesting...
...One of his skills is a sense of timing and an ability to operate on the basis of promises...
...23.00 THE POLITICAL STATUS OF PUERTO RICO Pamela S. Falk, editor Foreword by Luis Rafael Sanchez The first authoritative account of Puerto Rico's status debate as told by its political leaders...
...Two, that there is a linkage between El Salvador and Nicaragua...
...Labor unions, above all in the agro-export sector, are active: there was a strike of Duarte's peasant supporters are restive The Left seems to be willing to engage Duarte politically, test his commitment, probe the limits of political space...
...At the moment his tanda controls 11 of the 20 most important field commands, including four brigades out of six...
...Around election time the situation may again start looking bad...
...Some of it is political and some economic...
...In other words encouraging certain sectors to oppose the present course of events, or making a strenuous call for a harsher military stance...
...Washington would have to tell its clients in the oligarchy, "Sorry, your time is up...
...It was a losing policy...
...Over the last four years, the Right has built a very sophisticated political apparatus aimed at recruiting new constituents...
...He is also skilled at projecting a tone of hope and moderation...
...It's just not the president's nature...
...ARMSTRONG-He's a very brilliant politician, and the best political ally the Reagan Administration could ever have...
...FOOTE-Duarte's ability to interact with Washington is also important...
...This in turn has created tension between the Christian Democrats' program, which enjoys some degree of autonomy, and what we see as Washington's plan...
...The rebels took the opportunity that the talks offered and forced Duarte to be as good as his word...
...The danger they recognize is that this opens up a situation that allows for coexistence: what La Palma is asking is whether reform and revolution can coexist...
...If the strategy is to wear down the guerrillas, to have them disarm and enter the political mainstream, then I think the negotiation effort will fail...
...My sense is that the United States stands as guarantor that the Duarte process will stay within manageable bounds: that the reforms will not be deepened...
...What can I do as elected president...
...There is a sense of grumbling in military ranks...
...I would just add his ability to keep many balls in the air at once, to act with audacity and keep his opponents---even, at times, his friends--off guard...
...RICHARD HEALEY-One of the interesting tensions in this administration and its ideological periphery is between the commitment to stop Communism--exemplified by the new Heritage FoundaREPORT ON THE AMERICAS 1-% 22 ition recommendation that the United States should intervene covertly wherever it sees fit-and the desire to look effective and avoid getting bogged down in losing efforts...
...The message is the same-"Lay down your arms and integrate yourselves into the political process...
...So his supporters are becoming restive...
...Monterrosa and the other officers REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 28Get the Inside Story CUBAN FOREIGN POLICY Caribbean Tempest Pamela S. Falk Reveals Cuba's motives for foreign involvement and suggests the direction of the country's policies in the 1980s...
...and three, having access to a relatively successful Common Market which allowed El Salvador to develop light industry...
...forces as little as possible-most likely an air war...
...That may also sell well among other international actors...
...There have been demonstrations-one on November 5 attracted 3,000 people...
...Negotiations become an essential part of FMLN strategy, though they do not necessarily signify a change in strategy...
...BLACK-What degree of tension do you think there is at the moment between Duarte and the Right...
...Cold War policy, where you only negotiate from a position of strength...
...NAIRN-From the administration's point of view, its El Salvador policy seems to be going well right now, but a year, two years from now, they will face a whole new set of domestic and international circumstances...
...Even so, the FMLN recognizes that it if did defeat the Army, it could not secure its victory politically, given the geopolitical situation...
...So he put the Reagan Administration against the wall--either to oppose the negotiations or go along with them...
...He has to maneuver within those boundaries, and it's not an easy game...
...One part of the reactivation of the mass movement, mainly in the cities but also somewhat in the countryside, reflects discontent among Duarte's supporters...
...STEIN-I do not rule out the possibility of the United States blocking Duarte by proxy...
...When challenged to comply, his response is to issue a fresh set of pledges and promises...
...An organization calling itself the Frente Patri6tico Domingo Monterrosa has just issued a bulletin accusing the leadership of ANEP of betraying the private sector, calling them Judases and demanding that they withdraw from the preparations for the second La Palma meeting...
...He was very unclear on what that meant, but obviously he is suggesting a contrast to the FDR's previous position on elections...
...Duarte and the Reagan Administration would love the FMLN to surrender, but the Left will always remember how Sandino laid down his arms and was later assassinated...
...I'm not so sure that La Palma favors the administration, and not because Duarte wants power sharing...
...The main problem is how to keep the political and economic Right at bay without necessarily debilitating them...
...The answer was no, so he remained as president with all the trappings but no power...
...Duarte's impact on Congress has been remarkable...
...call for peace talks was characteristically audacious...
...That's not to say that this would be the likely course if the Democrats come back, but it's one of the possibilities...
...In order to do this, he is banking on some very tangible accords coming out of the talks, just before the March elections...
...Duarte is trying to enlist their allegiance, but he has to be careful, because the old guard is still in command...
...At the same time, the United States offers the Right the prospect of economic recovery...
...Remember that we Salvadoreans have a new military caste that is a by-product of U.S...
...and Cuban government officials, foreign ministers from countries in the hemisphere, and Cuban exiles, the author offers a novel and timely assessment of the politics of an increasingly turbulent area...
...Third, he is not corrupt and cannot be bought...
...This book provides first a discussion of Cuba's foreign policy before the revolution in 1959 and then a detailed assessment of its modern policies, including Cuba's international presence, its African assistance programs, especially in Angola and Ethiopia, and the role of its armed forces...
...how is it to keep its potential allies on the Right at bay, while at the same time making sure the La Palma process does not stray beyond its promised limits...
...Using such primary sources as interviews with U.S...
...The plantation economy is collapsing, the Common Market is non-functional, the population is exploding...
...The other is the audacious efforts of the far Right in El Salvador to demonstrate that they still hold veto power over any positive political developments...
...officials recognize that there must be a strong accompanying political thrust, which takes several forms: civic-military action, keeping the Right at bay, and isolating the FMLN politically...
...And surely there would have been fierce pressure on Duarte not to go ahead with La Palma...
...JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 31Four More, e A ers ca Four More Years FOOTE-Certainly it is stronger militarily than it was a year ago...
...Have they shown real moderation...
...However, as things developed here politically, people like Michael Barnes, Mondale, any mainstream Democrat, came to agree explicitly that a military victory by the FMLN was unacceptable...
...192 pages ISBN 0-669-05127-6 March ca...
...Regardless of the public claims by the administration that the Salvadorean army is winning the war, the second term Reagan agenda recognizes that there is no purely military solution in El Salvador...
...He is giving preferential access to credits and foreign exchange to non-traditional exporters-for example, cotton growers-and industrialists...
...But his approval ratings directly track the state of the U.S...
...Right...
...ministration is happy with its policy...
...They are again calling for the same kind of unity meetings that they held in early 1982...
...GLEIJESES--Only if we assume that Duarte has some hidden agenda that includes power-sharing with the guerrillas...
...In Nicaragua...
...And to deal with the fiscal deficit they have been pressing the government to adopt an austerity program...
...During Duarte's first four months, each sector of the business community had its price-tag, which Duarte had to pay to secure their passive collaboration...
...STEIN-From our vantage point in El Salvador, we see the Reagan project consolidating and moving forward, despite all the bureaucratic problems in the administration...
...It's not because of any principled difference between the two efforts...
...intervention...
...Another part reflects the decision by the FMLN-FDR to engage in that political battle...
...The country as it stands is economically unviable...
...They've given Reagan and Duarte a beautiful honeymoon...
...The most fascinating foreign policy of the last four years was Lebanon...
...Over the past year it has made efforts to get authorization within the Department of Defense to open a separate funding channel for humanitarian aid or civic action, presenting this as a constructive relief effort at a time of war...
...At this point, I think, Piero is correct in saying that the adRefugee children: A decline in human rights j Can Duarte keep his pledge of reforms...
...The second-term Reagan agenda recognizes that there is no purely military solution in El Salvador...
...The ANEP communiqu6 also argued that the negotiations would inevitably lead to a Christian Democratic victory in the Assembly, posing the danger of pressing on with the reforms and perhaps changing the Constitution-all of which is intolerable...
...He's not trying to back out of the talks...
...Naturally, the Right sees this kind of initiative as a threat...
...It's here in our own backyard...
...Fred Woerner of Southcom acknowledged that the Army's advantage is only tactical...
...As the rightists recognize only too well, Duarte is trying to divide them...
...Second, he has a messianic conception of himself as the savior and pacifier of El Salvador and the builder of democracy in that country...
...The death of Col...
...They've given Reagan and Duarte a beautiful honeymoon...
...STEIN-I believe so...
...It's happening along the lines laid out by the Kissinger Commission...
...citizens favor changes in the island's association with the U.S...
...A situation could well arise where the administration feels the need for a positive showing in Central America, and where would the gains be...
...Now the one key factor in Reagan's victory was the ideological clarity he has been able to convey-the sense of pride, forward motion, the reassertion of imperial power...
...And a request for the strengthening of the agrarian reform program, which they denounced as a sham, as a counterinsurgency program, when it began...
...The present squeeze on Nicaragua will eventually become a squeeze on El Salvador...
...And if the United States changed its line, and Duarte were still around by then, I think he could change his too...
...At the moment he is trapped...
...Now I sense three major trends of discussion within the FMLN...
...That was a precarious equilibrium for a population of three and a half million...
...CLARK-Ricardo, do you share the view that Duarte's idea of a resolution is for the guerrillas to surrender...
...Battlefield successes can strengthen the FMLN's hand and change the dynamic of negotiations, but the straight military road to power is no longer open...
...the Right, which hates him and wants to preserve the status quo...
...Duarte's coming to power is the most solid evidence...
...One is the personality of Duarte, who is not entirely controllable...
...So we must not underestimate either Duarte's skills as a politician, or the wishful thinking of the elected officials of the U.S...
...The FMLNFDR advances the notion of "Peace with Justice...
...The kind of bureaucratic entrepreneurialism that goes with nation-building is underway...
...The question of the administration's strategy has to be taken together with an analysis of Duarte and his policies...
...They will always remember what happened to the FMLN-FDR leaders who were murdered in 1980...
...Falk explores such modern crises in U.S.-Cuban and SovietCuban relations as the Cuban involvement in the Falkland/Malvinas Islands conflict and assistance to El Salvador and Nicaragua, and examines the country's contribution to Third World unrest...
...The threat does not come from his desire to share power but from his desire to accumulate it...
...That raises the question of the new political forms they may evolve around the March elections...
...How can we tell people to fight the military aid issue with their legislators, who think it would be crazy to undercut this wonderfully sincere, dedicated man...
...This is where Central America becomes especially important, because for four years the Right has hammered home the idea that this one is different from Vietnam...
...Like Reagan, he has the ability to project himself into the future, and escape any serious analysis of whether his proposals can be realised...
...Sooner or later there will be a confrontation on that issue, and at that point the international battle will come down to which side has the better public relations...
...That is now a firm given...
...There is no real public debate either...
...CLARK-Do you think, Piero, that the administration can continue to control Duarte as it wishes...
...Congress...
...He is the best ally the administration could have dreamed of, and I think they have the intelligence to realise that...
...The scenario might involve some rapid escalation involving U.S...
...The Salvador policy carries little domestic cost at the moment, and being identified with Duarte has helped the administration a lot...
...Since then, they have consolidated their strength inside El-Salvador and are not hampered by external dependencies...
...After the La Palma meeting, the Christian Democrats announced that they would restrict publication in the media of any death squad communiques...
...And that is regardless of internal differences and bureaucratic struggles...
...Bill LeoGrande's study of U.S...
...And I would say that although the United States is currently backing Peace with Democracy, it leans more naturally toward the Right's Peace with Liberty...
...And he does not...
...Now D'Aubuisson is visiting his tanda-mates in different garrisons, which may or may not be related to the recent saber-rattling...
...So all in all, the mood is that things are coming unstuck...
...The administration has made a clear commitment not to lose, a commitment which is expensive and requires a major investment in public relations time and bureaucratic energy...
...Look at his background: he has never been characterized as particularly servile to U.S...
...ARMSTRONG-The FMLN has also developed an extraordinary capacity to launch major attacks in rapid succession in different parts of the country, and to respond to counter-attacks with fresh actions of their own...
...Before the civil war, we had attained a certain equilibrium, at least on the surface...
...The UPD has responded just as virulently, conditioning its support in the March elections on a commitment by Duarte to continue the peace process...
...STEIN-I want to take issue with Piero's suggestion that Duarte is the "best ally" of the administration...
...I don't think Reagan can solve his need for good public relations with another Grenada-style operation...
...What could guarantee him a greater place in history than to be the man who finally brokered the solution to the war in El Salvador...
...My assessment is that they went into a slump after April 1983, which was compounded by the Sandinistas asking FMLN leaders to leave Managua later that year, after Grenada...
...Third, I think they have realised that they cannot capitalize on their military strength unless there is a parallel political opening, no matter how precarious or shortlived...
...Winning is great, and beating Communism is great...
...troops...
...committing himself to continue with reforms...
...Reagan needs Duarte very badly-as badly as Duarte needs him-in order to maintain a good relationship with Congress...
...troop intervention to save El Salvador's nascent democracy from the Right...
...So while the first four months of Duarte's rule saw some rapprochement with the Right, the traditional mistrust has now returned...
...CLARK-But they may at some point in the future...
...Whether or not he informed the U.S...
...Duarte's honeymoon is over...
...The administration understands that it gets support in Congress on El Salvador, and not on Nicaragua, because in one case the policy looks effective and in the other it doesn't...
...I do think the FMLN has grown stronger...
...STEIN-It would certainly be his best-case scenario...
...Central America policy during the first few years of the Carter Administration, when Somoza was allowed to fall...
...Though the military capacity of the armed forces has been substantially revamped, they are still unable to neutralize the FMLN...
...The administration decided to go along...
...In an interview on September 13, Gen...
...that the political track of dialogue with the FMLN will go no further than discussing the terms for their participation in elections...
...Basic to this strategy is neutralizing the economic Right and its political influence...
...We Salvadoreans are now more than five million...
...There is no longer a useful discussion to be had on military aid...
...Critics of policy dramatically miscalculated the whole aspect of his personality...
...I don't think the situation ahead will be smooth for the administration at all...
...He may be anti-communist, but not in the irrational and fanatical way one detects among influential members of the U.S...
...The after-effects of Grenada cannot last forever, so where else could they look to achieve a similar effect...
...He knows they won't...
...There is enthusiasm for the La Palma opening to be expanded into daily life, to be accompanied by democracy in other spheres like the press...
...Another would be to recognize that the swiftest path to a revolutionary defeat would be a military victory, which they do consider to be feasible in the short term...
...La Palma has given rise to a dynamic that many see as dangerous...
...He has been unable to deliver on that promise because the Right controls the National Assembly and would block any reforms he proposed now...
...The United States simply would not permit it...
...Already the military situation is declining...
...STEIN-A good starting point is to say that on November 18 there was a lot of saber-rattling, and the first rumors of a right-wing coup since La Palma...
...economy, and a year and a half ago they were as low as those of Nixon, Truman or Carter at their lowest...
...As far as the economic Right is concerned, I sense Duarte is using his power over governmental institutions to privilege certain groups who might be won over to support him...
...The leaders of the FDR believe Duarte never intended the meeting to take place...
...They are determined not to lose...
...There really is no other road...
...SOL-Yes, he had to make a dramatic gesture to hold on to his supporters, and to satisfy the country's aspiration for peace...
...HEATHER FOOTE-I certainly agree that this initial period after the re-election is characterized by a re-organization in the ranks...
...He was elected by a majority of votes in the May 1984 run-off, and won the backing of the UPD, the coalition of labor and peasant unions, by REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 24Duarte has a messianic conception of himself as the savior and pacifier of El Salvador...
...It would contradict the whole history of U.S...
...Also, the training program in the State Department will be coordinated with the White House outreach program through PIERO GLEIJESES-For the moment it seems to me that there is no major debate within the administration on El Salvador...
...This new generation is not bound by the old traditions, the old freemasonry...
...As a result, a very precarious balance in the mili- tary has been lost, and there is insufficient leader- ship in the field to cut back on the growing momen- tum of FMLN activities, which now pose a more serious threat than the old "prickly heat" effect...
...And not only in El Salvador, but throughout the region...
...Embassy and AID have called for economic stabilization to deal with the fiscal deficit, the balance of payments crisis...
...The Christian Democrats REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 30have been pushing for what they call a program of economic recovery, with a major expansion of job opportunities in the public sector, while the U.S...
...And fourth, he is not blinded by ideology...
...There is a linkage here between the pragmatic desire not to have things drag on, and the anticommunist instinct to stand tall...
...The dynamic of the current tension is defined precisely by how far the United States can continue to use their best instrument-Duarte-before he begins to upset their best ally-the Right...
...The United States actively pressured Duarte to pay that price...
...It was based on three elements: one, keeping the majority of the population working in conditions of serfdom...
...DICK CLARK-It's my impression, above all in foreign policy, that nobody in the administration has a clear fix on where they are headed...
...The Christian Base Communities are beginning to stir again...
...Since Cuba's earliest days as an independent republic it has tried to exert influence in all parts of the world, most notably Central America, South America, and Africa...
...Militarily, the FMLN is now displaying a "mercury ball effect"- that is, the capacity to concentrate and disperse forces.rapidly...
...ARMSTRONG-But that's a long-standing strategy of reform...
...It seems much less clear whether they have a coherent agenda in the political realm, for two reasons...
...That had special appeal to these young voters, and in this election all the conditions were ideal for playing on that theme...
...The fact that the administration is committed not to lose means that some very different decisions may have to be made down the road...
...At the U.N., he explicitly invited the FMLN to attend, not the FDR, and made no arrangements for Ungo and Rub6n Zamora to enter the country, in the belief that this would split the FDR and the FMLN...
...But some European and Latin American governments, including Colombia-which provided the plane--stepped in to force Duarte to follow through on his promise...
...From their perspective, the policy is going well-especially since the inauguration of Duarte...
...What it seeks is not the abandonment of FMLN goals, but a substantial change in the political means used to attain them...
...As usual in American government, we have an open battle between many different forces which have not yet been brought together in a consistent form...
...I believe their moderation stems from a sober recognition of several realities...
...The Army and the economic Right may be much better and more natural allies to safeguard the long-range interests of the United States...
...The most ambitious goal of the Kissinger Commission is to achieve zero economic growth by 1986...
...The only difference is in style...
...At some point he may become expendable...
...Now, it has been completely dislocated by the war...
...interests...
...If Washington sees the war at best as a continuing stalemate, or sees the FMLN getting stronger despite our massive escalation, wouldn't we already be hearing fights about what to do next...
...Then there may be a greater temptation to do something decisive in El Salvador...
...One, that they have to deal with four more years of Reagan...
...The rebels will not throw 50 years of struggle out the window...
...NAIRN-Piero's distinction is important: there is an absolutely clear line between two potential negotiated settlements-one where the guerrillas surrender, the other where the oligarchy surrenders...
...Additional sections analyze Puerto Rico's economy and the international implications of the status debate...
...I see the third trend in the FMLN as very pragmatic...
...The Democrats have nothing to say on El Salvador...
...There is also a predictable decline in the human rights climate...
...I remember very well that in 1979 the maximum goals of at least some sectors of the FMLN included "a popular revolutionary government under the hegemony of the worker-peasant alliance...
...by the year 2000 we'll be ten million...
...SHENK--One effect of La Palma is that there is now a political battle parallel to the military struggle...
...And they won't do it...
...SOL-Duarte conceived of La Palma as a gesture for the maximum political gain...
...How does this play out in Washington...
...21.00 Pamela S. Falk is adjunct associate professor of political science at Hunter College and director of Latin American affairs of the Americas Society, Center for Inter-American Relations...
...and the civil war, involving the FDR and the FMLN...
...I, BOB BOROSAGE-I think that's right...
...SOL-One final word...
...When the civil war started, there was a core of some 300-400 officers, all trained in the old school concept, the tanda, the all-powerful military elite...
...That again opens up the apocalyptic scenario of a U.S...
...There is now military action in the west, and harassment operations closer to San Salvador...
...Duarte is thoroughly hated by the oligarchy and by the old guard of the military...
...GLEIJESES-They don't need to control him...
...Fine-but it's over...
...The forces opposed to La Palma have begun to act, and this poses a dilemma for the United States...
...STEIN-There is real conflict between the two approaches to the economy...
...In private, U.S...
...Reagan would invade...
...Goals change...
...Whoever wins power in El Salvador will have to confront a mounting problem of destitution, misery and famine...
...One of the administration's primary principles is not to get dragged into anything that will engage the attention of the public or of Congress in a damaging way...
...His U.N...
...We'll let you go peacefully, we'll let you take some of your Swiss bank accounts and go to Miami, we'll pay you off...
...It makes me worried about our credibility, both in Washington and at the grassroots...
...To some extent, that's what happened with U.S...
...He must have something in mind beyond winning a majority in the Legislative Assembly, since he knows that will provoke a rightwing reaction...
...Guillermo Ungo describes him as a "political engineer...
...Also, La Palma again opens up another danger which appeared to have receded: that is, how to respond in the event of a major attack from the extreme Right that might destabilize the current precarious equilibrium...
...ambassador in advance about La Palma, it was a positive thing for the administration...
...Both in 1972 and in 1977 he formed a coalition with the Social Democrats and the Communists...
...Now here is the crucial point about La Palma: will there be a negotiated settlement, and will that settlement involve the guerrillas laying down their arms...
...Now obviously, a solution that would eventually lead to the oligarchy ceding power is untenable unless the United States backs it...
...Although Monterrosa was probably not personally in favor of the dialogue, he was a great supporter of the Army's vertical hierar- chy and went along with the wishes of the high com- mand...
...Part of his brilliance lies in his ability to walk this line, never quite defining himself as a reformer or as an opportunist...
...In 1980-82, first as a junta member and then as president, he asked whether the reforms could work...
...My feeling is that what Duarte wants and is discussing is not powersharing but a humane negotiated surrender where you don't slaughter your defeated opponents...
...It would invite a U.S...
...Manage Duarte and the military, manage La Palma and extend that policy indefinitely as long as things stay the same...
...policies...
...If La Palma helps him to gain a sweeping parliamentary victory, that opens up a whole new ball game...
...And that will remain true unless one of two things happens-either a dramatic increase in the military power of the FMLN, or more publicity on the continuing deaths in El Salvador and the Duarte government's responsibility for them...
...When I was Minister of Economy, I always said El Salvador was not a viable country...
...Now the attitude has shifted to, "We can't undercut him now that the La Palma peace process is underway...
...They just didn't want to think about it...
...Now the United States has trained more than a thousand new officers, most in U.S...
...In the meantime, he has been building a constituency among the younger military...
...For example, Reagan rode to re-election on a peak of personal popularity...
...An indeterminate period has opened in which the battle can be carried on in a very different arena...
...After his election, the initial response from Congress was, "We need to give him a chance...
...Where does the FMLN-FDR stand today...
...There might be an even greater temptation to force things back on a more military track if the peace talks in El Salvador seem to be leading in a direction that the administration and the Salvadorean Right find threatening...
...the United States, which has its own agenda...
...But Duarte could arguably come down on the other side of the line if he thought it would work...
...The debates will start if and when this period ends, and the administration is faced with the fear of losing...
...One of the major accomplishments of the first Reagan term was to build a strong bipartisan consensus on that point...
...It has maintained a significant leverage over the process...
...And the question is, will the FMLN play along...
...I think they feel the best they are being offered is the chance to lose with honor...
...Few people in this country are aware that an overwhelming majority of Puerto Rico's 3.5 million U.S...
...But let's look at what is already committed in El Salvador...
...Almost inevitably, those concessions to the Right provoked an erosion in Duarte's own base, most clearly within the UPD and its peasant sector, the UCS...
...Why is it any more likely to work now than in 1972 or 1977, especially given the attitude of the United States...
...Bob, you knew Duarte back in the 1960s...
...GLEIJESES-La Palma produces an immense convergence between the Reagan Administration and Duarte...
...SHENK-What do you think is Duarte's strategy in the face of this...
...They would also be content to wear out the guerrillas, to destroy their popular base and reduce them to practically nothing, so that they would be forced to join the political mainstream...
...I always like to think of Central America as more of a protectorate than a colony, and one consequence is that local governments have a certain degree of autonomy from the United States...
...Indications are that we are heading for another recession, which may have some interesting consequences for the new aspirations of the right wing of the Republican Party...
...Duarte's government seems to be making progress in their eyes...
...The iron hand is that his government keeps the monopoly on arms...
...HEALEY-Absolutely...
...It's hard to sense how different Republican Party influences will be reflected in key appointments...
...They have embarked on this track fully aware of the contradictions that it may open up, especially around the La Palma peace talks...
...But La Palma is threatening to the administration because the conflicts between Duarte and the Right and sectors of the Army may become hard to control...
...I fear that Duarte will do a better PR job than the FMLNFDR...
...And private enterprise will never organize the economy in that way...
...BOROSAGE-I'm somewhat surprised by these assessments of the military situation...
...Since La Palma there has also been a growing dynamic of popular mobilization, an effervescence at the grassroots level...
...At the same time, if there is an easing of tension in El Salvador, that could also bring about an easing of tension in Nicaragua...
...If the answer is yes for El Salvador, what does that imply for Nicaragua, which at the moment is where political wills are being tested...
...ISBN 0-669-08279-1 Fall 1985 ca...
...He needs the United :States, and so may bend his position accordingly, but he does have his own project...
...Even if they badly beat the Salvadorean Army in the field, they would not be able to seize and hold power...
...Now he's asking "What can work today...
...Essentially what Duarte is offering is an iron hand in a velvet glove...
...BLACK-Does the FMLN in fact believe it is capable of winning a military victory...
...This forced a total reassessment of the FMLN's strength and means of operating...
...At WOLA, we already see indications that the administration is willing and anxious to send out fairly high-level spokespersons to even middleJANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 "a az if I -21Four More Years Four More Years level speaking engagements...
...churchwomen, the AIFLD workers and the FMLN-FDR leaders, down to very simple requests such as lower tariffs for domestic light and electricity, reduced interest on loans to small and medium farmers...
...I am anticipating future rounds of talks, but eventually they will come down to that issue...
...Their suggestion of a moratorium on arms entering the country is also a new approach...
...However, you can't rule out the possibility of the emergence in the next four years, both within and outside the Democratic Party, of an alternative current of opposition, one that is open to a new definition of U.S...
...JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 25R"eotE o4 z4 Amercast Four More Years surge of support for Reagan's foreign policy had dissipated...
...military establishments...
...The feeling of success in Salvador is undermined if Nicaragua continues to be troublesome and stays in the news...
...In 1981-82 you probably wouldn't have found any Democrats in Congress who actively welcomed the prospect of an FMLN victory, but they universally fled the issue...
...But the long-term structural problems of the country face all parties-the FMLN-FDR, the Duarte government and the Reagan Administration...
...At the moment, three peace projects are being debated in El Salvador...
...interests and willing to consider the idea that artificially propping up the army and the oligarchy is not the only way to go...
...I believe that both Duarte and the United States want JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1985 27Four More Years Four More Years the FMLN to lay down their arms...
...I don't think so...
...Their new ideological indoctrination tells them the military should withdraw from politics, respect human rights and win the support of the population...
...That's out of the question for the Reagan Administration...
...It concluded that the only group to benefit from the opening was the FMLN-FDR, at the very moment when the military clearly held the upper hand...
...FOOTE-A lot of what we're seeing now is a logical follow-up to the La Palma meeting, which opened a pandora's box...
...Death squad activities have increased again...
...The delegation he named to the second round of peace talks was very high level, as serious a response as one could expect...
...This first-hand account of the history and positions of the various factions features articles by the governor of Puerto Rico, the mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico's congressional representatives, and the head of the Puerto Rican Development Association...
...The Left seems to be willing to engage Duarte politically, test his commitments, probe the limits of political space, in a way that is very risky for the overall balance of power and the political balance between Duarte and the Right...
...NAIRN-It all depends on what we mean by the potential of the FMLN to win a military victory...
...They range from a demand for punishment of the murderers of Archbishop Romero, the U.S...
...I would rather call him the best instrument, precisely because right now there are no useful alternatives...
...In response, ANEP said it was revising its own position...
...Duarte, therefore, has to deal with four pressures: the labor movement, which demands reforms...
...But one factor that looks likely to be important in the second term is a more aggressive and sophisticated public relations outreach to set the agenda on El Salvador...
...JANET SHENK-I think what Duarte always asks is, "Can it work...
...If we ever achieve peace, we will need a strong government-and I don't want to enter into academic discussions about socialism or MarxismLeninism-that recognizes that the way to make the Salvadorean economy viable is to create a labor-intensive economy, based on widespread participation of the people, on cooperatives, on permanent employment, on what is nowadays called the area of social ownership...
...Whether statehood, a modified form of commonwealth, or full independence would best meet Puerto Rico's needs remains a question of heated debate...
...SHENK-I think the assumption that the policy is going well is a very precarious one...
...Will the United States take a position on the current elections to ensure that the balance of power remains as it is, to allow the opposition bloc in the Assembly to simply abort Duarte's attempt to enact reforms...
...It also seems clear to us that the administration considers it essential to open a political track, along the lines of what Thomas Enders suggested in early 1983 and which led to his dismissal as assistant secretary of state...
...One key group they have targeted is the young, whom they see as a key voting bloc if the party is to achieve a re-alignment on the congressional level...
...Behind the shield of counterinsurgency, with increased levels of military aid and technology, you build a nation-in all the ways we tried to build one in Vietnam, and often with the same bureaucrats...
...What happens when the two come into conflict...
...The death of Monterrosa suggests that there are also continuing internal security problems in the army...
...I don't believe, on the other hand, that the FMLN-FDR would accept any mechanism offered by Duarte to have them enter the elections through the back door...
...Ungo has said they will not sit back from the March elections...
...That long-term problem is the relation of population to resources...
...For the last four years, 26 REPORT ON THE AMERICAS REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 26La Palma: Opening pandora's box the Right has not been entirely discontented...
...They are now talking about a national forum to look into constitutional reforms...
...Both the United States and Duarte would be delighted if the FMLN would surrender...
...The Army acknowledges a casualty rate of 10-15 men per day, and the FMLN claims the losses are even higher...
...two, maintaining on that basis an intensive and profitable plantation agriculture (coffee, cotton and sugar...
...But Duarte is more of a realist...
...He can stall for time by promising the UPD that they must wait for reforms until he gains control of the Assembly...
...We can see shifting sands in the armed forces since Monterrosa's death...
...I assume that is parallel to what Duarte is trying to achieve...
...One would be to see the talks as purely tactical, to take advantage of the political space...
...Instead, many people in the administration, especially among the Right, especially in the military, might see the chance for quick, decisive progress in El Salvador...
...And as Heather observed, the center of gravity of the war has moved to the central part of the country and has begun to radiate westwards, and that is causing great concern to Duarte and to the American military community...
...BLACK-How does he play that game as a politician...
...Of paramount importance for Duarte, then, is that his Christian Democrats win the legislative elections in March...
...STEIN-Duarte's strategy vis-a-vis his base of support, I think, is to ask them to wait for the legislative victory...
...Duarte's thesis of "Peace with Democracy" assumes that peace can be obtained by ending the violence, upholding the Constitution and building democratic processes-elections-that create the appropriate political space for representative voices to be heard...
...BLACK-What does that analysis suggest about the prospects for the La Palma process, and more broadly about who the Reagan Administration sees as its real long term allies in El Salvador...
...The extreme Right is pushing the concept of "Peace with Liberty''--liberty being defined almost exclusively in economic terms...
...public opinion confirms that the effect of Grenada was very short-lived.* Within three months the *William M. LeoGrande, Central America and the Polls, (Washington Office on Latin America, May 1984...
...12,000 coffee workers...
...After endless pronouncements on the need to stand tall against a radicalized Soviet-backed Arab regime-and how much more evil can you get than that?-the president pulled out without the least qualm...
...He is eminently flexible and interested finally in his own glory...
...the Democrats have nothing to say on the issue...
...However, as we approach a dip in the economy, JANUARY/FEBRUAR 1952 and with other trouble spots brewing around the world, the administration may again find itself obliged to do something to reassert that sense of dominance and forward motion...
...This was one reason why there was such a delay in the government's response to the FMLN's proposals in early November...
...What are we really talking about in political terms-a negotiated solution or a negotiated surrender...
...Over the course of time, local actors become more independent, and this certainly applies to Duarte...
...Jorge characterized his personality well...
...Lexington Books 125 Spring St., Lexington, MA 02173 800-334-3284Ror 4ore- th A"lAr c Four More Years of the Eastern Front was a critical blow...
...What is your sense of him as a political operator...
Vol. 19 • January 1985 • No. 1
