URUGUAY'S ELECTIONS A Prolonged Transition to Democracy
Weinstein, Martin
"We want to point out that the country's problems will not automatically cease with the reinstatement of democratic institutions," Uruguay's Episcopal Conference warned in May. "The peace and...
...The bishops issued their statement in anticipation of Uruguay's first election since 1971...
...The deliberate suppres- sion of wages would attract foreign investment capital, while generous interest rates and unregulated banking would convert Uruguay into an important off-shore banking center...
...General Seregni was free to campaign for the Frente but still prohibited from being a candidate...
...The candidate who receives the most votes from the party that receives the most votes gains the presidency, as seen in the following example: 14 REPORT ON THE AMERICAS becomes president even though Candidate D of the Blanco Party received more votes (45) than Candidate A (40...
...Financially, Belize appears to be in better shape than most of these countries and has not yet been forced to renegotiate its debts or deal with the IMF...
...The armed forces did not concede everything, however...
...A department, or state, is governed by an intendente, or governor, who heads a legislative body known as a junta de gobierno...
...the Blancos, 21.3...
...During July, with Wilson, as Senator Ferreira is commonly known, still in a military jail and his party therefore abstaining from negotiations, the Colorado Party and the Frente finally wrested an agreement on elections from the military...
...Congress cut off military aid in 1977...
...A military career is not considered prestigi- ous in Uruguay, and salaries are low...
...When confronted with the vote, the generals claimed it was the constitution that had been rejected, not military rule...
...He promised that if the Blancos won they would ask Con- gress to call new elections within one year so that candidates like Wilson could run...
...He is Dr...
...In November 1980, in an attempt to institutionalize their rule, they submit- ted their constitutional project to a plebiscite...
...In 1971, Ferreira Aldunate ran on a platform calling for land reform and nationalization of the banks...
...No Agreement, No Election Reaction to the early August electoral agreement was predictable...
...This first stage up to the elections and the new government is difficult, but without a doubt the most difficult period will be the exercise of real power, the excercise of democracy...
...Resolving the deep crisis in which our country is emersed can't be done in a short time...
...Government power gave the armed forces ample access to the till...
...Eightytwo percent of the vote went to can- didates who opposed any formal or informal continuation of military rule...
...The collapse of the Argentinian economy dried up the only real source of foreign investment--construction dollars for the real estate boom in Punta del Este, a traditional summer watering hole for the Argentinian elite, and the Montevideo suburb of Pocitos...
...In July economists representing the country's three main parties issued a joint call for renegotiation...
...Of the more than 2 million electors expected to participate in the 1984 elections, some 600,000 will be first time voters...
...Another achievement is that Belizeans just celebrated the third anniversary of their independence...
...Voters will also choose these local governments on November 25...
...This electoral system has always made it desirable, if not necessary, for each of the traditional parties to offer at least two presidential candidates in order to appeal to a wider spectrum of voters...
...Dr...
...After all, despite the absence of growth in many sectors of the economy, Belize has weathered the recession more successfully than many other countries in the region...
...The military also agreed to an immediate review of the cases of all pris- oners who have served at least half their sentences, some 300 to 400 of the remaining 700 political prisoners...
...But the navy commander publicly disagreed: "If mistakes were made, those who made them must answer to the judiciary...
...When the people rejected the plebiscite four and a half years ago," an observer of Uruguayan affairs said recently, "that was the beginning of the end for the military...
...Between 1981 and 1983 Gross Domestic Product fell by some 20%, while unemployment rose to an official 17...
...Julio Maria Sanguinetti-minister of industry and commerce in the late 1960s and Colorado Party Candidate A: 40 Candidate B: 30 Candidate C: 30 Total 100 Blanco Party Candidate D: 45 Candidate E:30 Candidate F:20 Total 95 Under this example, the Colorado Party wins the presidency by 100 votes to 95 and Candidate A, the Colorado candidate with the most votes, minister of education from 1972-1973 -staunchly defended the agreement...
...But ultimately the generals' model had little success...
...The armed forces' electoral defeat has been called "the second nail in their coffin...
...The November 25 contest is a vital step in a prolonged transition to democracy that has pitted the people and democratic political culture against a brutal and stubborn ll-year-old military dictatorship...
...Hundreds were arrested in late October in demonstrations calling for a swift return to democratic rule, as over 200 were sent into internal exile...
...About that, I am sure, Professor Jamail and I are in agreement...
...The task of our country's democratic recuperation can neither be the work of an enlightened man nor any one party, but a combination of all political parties and all social forces," General Seregni said on his release...
...These facts, along with specu- lation about the extent of the U.S...
...Such an understanding would allow tlhe new presi- dent to carry out policy despite the fact that no party is expected to command a parliamentary majority...
...Although prohibited to run for office, Seregni was permitted to lead his coalition in negotiations with his former peers and jailers in the armed forces...
...These elections will be far from perfect...
...A mid-October poll of 625 residents of Montevideo gave the Colorados 31.5% of the vote...
...Urguayans seemed to be hit by the ripple effect of the Argentinian debacle in the Malvinas and of Argentina's October election, its first in ia decade...
...Belize's government took a chance in 1981 when it opted for independence without prior settlement of the Guatemalan dispute, but, with each new agreement with Mexico or Costa Rica...
...The worldwide recession and concomitant rise in protectionism hit exports hard...
...Each year of Belizean sovereignty makes the Guatemalan territorial claim more ob- viously unjust and unrealistic...
...Juan Crottognini, a gynecologist who was the Frente's vice-presidential candidate in the last election...
...While some think a victorious Blanco Party might push for accountability, military corruption is more likely to become an issue once civilians take over...
...Yet no political party has raised accountability as an issue in this cam- paign...
...One major political leader is in jail, another is free but banned from accepting his party's nomination and hundreds of political prisoners are still in jail...
...In reaction to human rights abuses, the U.S...
...The Department of Montevideo consists of the capital city, and the intendente is thus the city's mayor...
...and presidential and congressional elections in November 1984...
...Factions of all parties are attempting to achieve a concertacitn social, an agreement on policies concerning such critical issues as wages, debt renegotiation, educational reform and budgetary priorities...
...The dictatorship gave up its long-sought demand for a National Security Council (CONSENA), accepting instead an advisory body dominated by the president and his cabinet...
...The young will determine the electoral outcome...
...In comparison with its counterparts in Chile and Argentina, the Uruguayan military retains a relatively strong and calm bargaining position...
...Unemployment and consequent hardship have increased but most Belizeans are better off than their parents were, and there is little of the extreme poverty, or inequality, that is characteristic of other Caribbean and Central American countries...
...Prime Minister George Price's cabinet shuffle last January only papered over the growing cracks, just long enough for the next general election which will probably be held at the end of this year...
...The empty buses did so with signs which said, "Obligatory emergency service...
...A high-ranking general announced at an official ceremony that the armed forces would not accept any trials...
...Even .these measures can be abolished or modified by parliament after the new administration takes ofBlanco Senator Wilson Ferrelra Aldunate-"a charismatic nonulist...
...Faced with increased isolation, the military entered into serious transition negotiations with the traditional parties last March...
...The 1982 internal party elections-in which party leaders were chosen-were an overwhelming defeat for the dictatorship and its supporters...
...Fifty-eight percent of the population knew they weren't alone anymore...
...Consequently, Be- lizeans have not experienced the kind of belt-tightening and resultant social unrest that is evident, for example, in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic...
...O. Nigel Bolland Professor of Sociology, Colgate University Hamilton, NY Nigel Bolland is the author of The Formation of Colonial Society-Belize, from Conquest to Crown Colony and of Belize: The New Nation in Central America, forthcoming on Westview Press...
...Of coure, the problem of providing for Belize's defense persists, but that should not obscure the fact that Belize is consolidating her position and thereby making it harder for Guatemala to gain any support...
...Uruguay's electoral laws, which have been preserved by the military, provide for a Senate and Chamber of Deputies elected by strict proportional representation...
...Uruguay's foreign debt grew expo- nentially during the last eight years and currently stands at close to $5 billion...
...Exiled Blanco Senator Wilson Ferreira Aldunate emerged as the undis- puted leader of his party and a clear favorite to win a free election...
...The 1980s have also proved to be a political disaster for the armed forces...
...After the initial shock of their de- feat wore off, the military high com- mand came forward with a new timeGeneral Liber Seregni of the Frente Amplio was released in May...
...Belizean pol- itics are not racially defined and there is a 30-year tradition that may be envied elsewhere...
...Unlike Chile-where voters approved mili- tary rule by a large margin in a 1978 plebiscite-Uruguay's voters rejected the constitution by a 58% to 42% margin...
...negotiations between party leaders and the military on consitutional reform...
...New student and trade union leaders emerged and began to coordinate activity with the centrist Blanco and Colorado party leaders and the still illegal leftist coalition known as the Frente Amplio, or Broad Front...
...The model did stimulate a boom in non-traditional exports-finished leather and wool products-whose export was supported by sophisticated rebate and exchange mechanisms...
...Such exports became a significant portion of Uruguay's trade in the late 1970s...
...The 1980s have proved an economic disaster for Uruguay...
...In an interview shortly after his release from jail, Liber Seregni said his call for a general amnesty did not include the military, an indication that the Frente Amplio may raise the question in months to come...
...Colorado's principal presidential candidate, Dr...
...The president is elected by means of the "double simultaneous vote," which results in a simultaneous primary and election...
...In 1983, on the last Sunday in November, traditionally election day in Uruguay, some 300,000 people marched demanding a return to democracy and the release of some 800 remaining political prisoners...
...On June 27, the eleventh anniversary of the coup, Montevideo was turned into a ghost town by a general strike...
...The Colorado Party and Frente Amplio negotiators saw it as the best deal that could be made with an undefeated and united military...
...A reinvigorated student movement, an innovative federation of housing cooperatives, a flourishing union movement and a Medical Society which voted to establish a commission to investigate medical collaboration with torture are but some of the signs of democratic re- newal...
...Such votes would guarantee a victory for Sanguinetti and the Colorados, they say...
...Zumarin, a journalist and human rights activist, was named des- pite the party's earlier threats to boycott the contest...
...If there isn't an agreement, there are no elections...
...In the mid-1970s, Uruguay had more political prisoners per capita than any other nation, and the repression touched off a worldwide campaign by Amnesty International...
...NOVEMBER/DECEMBER i984 Ifice in March...
...turned out to greet him, and 300 were later jailed in protests demanding his release...
...And if there aren't elections, what is there...
...These elections are not the elections we want...
...The five factions that comprise the Frente Amplio have agreed, as in 1971, to field only one presidential candidate...
...The economic model the generals applied in 1973 was a watered down version of free market theory...
...Basically, the election is conducted via a list system which allows several presidential candidates to run under the banner of the same party with the ballot counting for the candidate and his party at the same time...
...The People's United Party, which has dominated Belizean politics since its formation in 1950, is in danger of fis- sion...
...The peace and harmony that we desire demands a respectful and free dialogue, access to information, the participation of all without threats and without terror and the reconciliation of individual interests with the common good...
...and the Frente Amplio, 27.5...
...However, the Frente stands an excellent chance of winning in the Department of Montevideo, thereby controlling the government of the capital which contains more than 40% of REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 14the country's total population.* These young voters therefore have to make a big decision: support Wilson, thereby assuring a new election, or help the Left demonstrate its renewed vigor...
...New Voters are the Wild Card The last elections in Uruguay took place in November 1971, and resulted in a Colorado victory over the Blancos by 41% to 40% with the Left garnering 19% of the vote...
...Internally, production was to be rationalized by the lowering of tariffs, so that efficient, competitive industries would survive while the weak and inefficient died...
...When, along with these facts, we consider the high lit- eracy rate and the expanding health services, it is apparent that there are clear achievements, as well as problems, in Belize...
...The politicians were strengthened by what had become a "national fervor" demanding elections...
...Wilson remained jailed and banned from running for office...
...The new indepen- dence constitution requires that each district have between two and three thousand voters and, as' a result, the membership of the House of Repre- sentatives, currently 18, will increase--but no one yet knows by how many...
...Alberto Saenz de Zumarin, the Blancos' principal candidate and standin for Wilson, was less generous...
...He is charged with insulting the armed forces and collaborating with subversives...
...Wilson's stance on the banks has led financial sectors to favor the Colorados in the 1984 elections...
...Continued from page 2 thousands of factory and field workers dependent on the industry, there is no alternative, at least in the short run...
...The Army, in a futile attempt to convey a sense of normalcy, ordered the buses to continue running...
...But as of mid-October, less than 200 prisoners had been released...
...The November elections are no exception...
...This called for internal party elections in November 1982...
...No one wants the military to stop the process of redemocratization, yet conditions for a successful and stable democratic government are far from certain...
...The formal transfer of power would take place in March 1985...
...In Chile, the Pinochet regime seems to have backtracked on what little opening it had granted...
...A series of provisional measures guaranteed the armed forces the right to choose future commanders, and to monitor and react to "terrorist" activities...
...Parties within the Frente Amplio were legalized for the elec- tion, except for the Communist Party, which nonetheless will run stand-in candidates under its list (democracia avanzada) within the leftist coalition...
...Thus far it appears they have split their loyalty between the Left and Wilson, yet predictions are difficult...
...The Colorados were traditionally dominated by urban liberals, but have shifted to the right in the last 10 years...
...Fifty thousand people...
...For those Blancos not comfortable with the liberal and stridently antimilitary position of Wilson's surro- gate, Dr...
...Zumardin, there are more traditional Blancos-Dardo Ortiz, or the more reactionary Juan Payss6...
...What every friend of Belize hopes for, however, is that Belizeans should remain free to make their own choices and to determine their own future...
...By May, General Liber Seregni, the Frente's presidential candidate in 1971, was released from jail...
...If not, we will see at the moment...
...There is a burst of social and political energy in the new political space Uruguayans are enjoying for the first time in eleven years...
...Nonetheless, even these lead- ers are deeply engaged in an electoral process which is regarded as a crucial stage in the return to civilian rule--a return that was aided by the breakdown of the political and economic game plan of the military...
...Sanguinetti appears to be favored by the military and Washington...
...Wilson Ferreira Aldunate returned from an 11-year exile on June 16, and as expected, was promptly arrested by the military...
...The military had fought hard to sell the constitution, and clearly did not expect to lose...
...In addition to Sanguinetti, who is clearly identified with the centrist and liberal wing of the Colorado Party, ex-President Jorge Pacheco Areco (1967-1971), a tough law and order candidate, is the standard bearer for the party's conservative wing...
...Wilson Returns-to Jail The deteriorating economic situa- tion and the overwhelming negative sentiment toward military rule finally led to a resurgence of mass political activity...
...and with the recent improvement of relations with Honduras, Belize is isolating Guatemala diplomatically...
...The absence of communal violence is an important feature of Belize's social history, and suggests, perhaps, that the obsession with racial divisions and ethnic heterogeneity that characterizes most accounts of Belize is misplaced...
...Belize remains the most peaceful and stable democratic nation in Cen- tral America...
...Even the military seems divided on the subject...
...While the Blancos (National Party) were traditionally identified with conservative rural interests, Wilson has moved the party toward the center and cost it some support...
...The future of Belize, Jamail would probably agree, is exceptionally hard to predict because its situation, in terms of internal factors and external contingencies, is so fluid...
...A charismatic populist, Wilson is feared by the military more for his personal popularity than his policies...
...This sum may not sound like much in comparison to the debts of Argentina and Brazil, but it is crushing in a society of only 3 million peopie, with annual export earnings of $1 billion...
...The plan called for the creation of a National Security Council with virtual veto power over the pol- icy of any future civilian government, along with Draconian legislation on security and "subversion...
...Martin Weinstein is Professor of Political Science at The William Paterson College of New Jersey and author of Uruguay: The Politics of Failure...
...The Blancos have argued that a vote for the Frente Amplio is wasted since the Left cannot win the presidency...
...REPORT ON THE AMERICAS o 2 C 12table-Cronograma-for a return to civilian rule...
...The Commander of the Army, General Hugo Medina, commented that the military could accept a Blanco victory as long as the party lived up to the agreement...
...role in the first national election since independence, make the result especially unpredictable...
...While such problems are pressing, even threatening, Jamail has perhaps paid insufficient attention to some of the more positive aspects of Belize and the achievements of its government...
...In Ar- gentina the military was left demoralized by its humiliation in the Malvinas/Falklands war...
...And now officers are falling over themselves to avoid being held responsible for the 9,000 desaparecidos...
Vol. 18 • November 1984 • No. 6
