Panama - Who Will Fill the Void
Brown, Humberto & Dominguez, Elmo & Priestley, George & Rubin-Vega, Eduardo
Official reports blamed "bad weather conditions" for the July 31 plane crash that killed General Omar Torrijos Herrera, architect of Panama's current Canal treaties. While few will say it...
...banking interests, led by Tomas Altamirano Duque, is at odds with a reformist, predominantly middle class group...
...Panamanians have kept score...
...to replace the existing Assembly of 505 with a body resembling the old Congress that will limit popular participation and give the Right greater leverage...
...He needed this role to enhance his popular image at home, tarnished by growing concessions to conservative groups...
...As for his international role, the declaration of the Sandinist National Liberation Front (FSLN), summed it up: "The Nicaraguan revolution and all of Central America have lost one of the important bastions of support for the peoples' struggles...
...and to steer Panama closer to Reagan and Latin America's reactionary regimes...
...General Torrijos' death will definitely be felt in the Caribbean and Central America, where the quest for a new political order and more equitable relations with the United States found in him a valuable ally and mediator...
...The most likely contest will be between the conservative faction led by Colonel Ruben Dario Paredes, former Minister of Agriculture, and Colonel Manuel A. Noriega, Chief of Military Intelligence...
...He is well identified with Torrijos' policies, but lacks enough influence among officers or political circles to really establish control...
...The rightwing opposition represents conservative business groups and the old oligarchic families displaced from power 13 years ago...
...Garcia Marquez wrote of him affectionately as "a cross between a mule and a tiger...
...Paredes is a friend of large landowners and NACLA Reportupdate update update update cattle ranchers, notorious for his repressive policies...
...Among them, his rightwing opponents in Panama, military dictators in Central America and, surely, the Reagan Administration, which viewed Torrijos' support for revolutionary movements as a serious obstacle to its policies of counterinsurgency for the region...
...He held the balance of power...
...insistence, during the treaty debates, that Torrijos allow parliamentary openings...
...Student protests and labor strikes, sometimes exploding in riots, have mounted steadily since 1978...
...Thus when, in 1978, Torrijos relinquished his executive powers to a new president after 10 years, he did so willingly, confident that his hand-picked successor would remain faithful to his own objectives...
...Long before the next elections, however, two institutions that lorrijos shaped and tried hard to consolidate, will be shaken by his absence: the PRD and the National Guard...
...His strength was derived from the wide spectrum of political forces he courted...
...They were bound for several years by the pressure Torrijos could apply in moments of crisis, but no one can predict what will happen now...
...While few will say it was not an accident, there is no doubt certain groups will benefit from his death...
...Now that he is gone, no one knows who can assure the PRD victory...
...Granted their deep political differences, the National Guard's General Staff can only agree that at a minimum the Guard maintain its autonomy and act as the guarantor and final arbiter of the nation's political integrity...
...He was one of the few Latin American leaders who offered the FDR political support in the face of U.S...
...The void left by his death is the inevitable outcome of that process...
...Launched in 1977 as the "Partido del Proceso," or the official government party, it brought together diverse groups represented in the government or identified, in some way, with its policies...
...Noriega, conversely, is known for his reformist sympathies and political savvy...
...Some officers, obviously, would like to see the Guard take on a much more ambitious role, intervening on behalf of particular tendencies (the most reactionary...
...Naturally, popular disaffection swelled...
...But their efforts of the past five or six years have been in vain...
...objections...
...For most Panamanians, supporters as well as critics, his death was a disconcerting loss...
...The Right wants to subordinate the National Guard, removing its autonomy as the "Fourth Power of the State...
...Whether they praised or criticized him, all recognized that his presence assured greater stability and political pluralism than the country had enjoyed ever before...
...Torrijos had shown, through negotiations for the Canal treaties, that he was a reliable ally of the United States JulylAugust who could also elicit respect as a progressive nationalist leader...
...Torrijos was the pivot upon which the conflicting forces of Panamanian politics turned, ever so precariously...
...It is powerful and growing stronger...
...Its members realize that an alliance with the old oligarchy would bring their own demise, so they oppose it...
...So far, it has not secured any of these requirements...
...They may soon see little reason to stay in the PRD...
...Of course, there is always the possibility that a more collegiate form of leadership might emerge, but this is doubtful, given the Staff's internal divisions...
...Should he prevail, the turn to the right will certainly quicken...
...At the opposite end of the political spectrum, business groups have also hardened their stance, leading to dangerous polarization...
...This has rekindled political instability and rendered the regime vulnerable to attacks from rightwing groups capitalizing on popular discontent...
...The Fight Within The Party The PRD was created to give 38 the Torrijos process permanence and legitimacy...
...The Duque bloc favors rapprochement with the rightwing opposition...
...Certainly Reagan will not bemoan his absence...
...The regime lost much of the support it once enjoyed, finding itself increasingly unable to restrain popular agitation...
...He was called a "tin horn dictator," a "populist rabble rouser," a "trusted ally of the United States," a "communist stooge...
...The combination always seemed odd, but it tells why Torrijos could be an effective mediator...
...Most recently, he had urged a negotiated settlement in El Salvador that would recognize the political primacy of the Democratic Revolutionary Front (FDR...
...He was unquestionably the most important political figure since Panama's independence, although Torrijismo unfolded as a reformist process that never challenged Panama's dependent capitalism...
...And what little the treaties did gain has been vitiated by the United States' flagrant violations of the basic agreements...
...The reformist group, conversely, wants to preserve the popular reforms of the earlier period...
...In the international camp, [Torrijos'] moral and political strength on the side of the people will be missed...
...He is best known for the support he gave Nicaragua's Sandinistas and for offering asylum to the exiled Shah of Iran...
...Their challenge is very serious, more serious perhaps than the ruling Revolu37update . update . update * update tionary Democratic Party (PRD) can contend with alone...
...to deny leftist organizations electoral entry or the freedom to organize publicly...
...yet his image has less to JulylAugust do with his personality than with the complex, subtle, often contradictory process he led...
...Domestically, the reforms built during the early 70s, in the regime's populist phase, have been virtually dismantled...
...On the economic front, a staggering foreign debt placed the regime at the mercy of its foreign creditors, who imposed a series of regressive measures that depressed standards of living...
...When reformist alternatives were not feasible, he hoped his influence could restrain, if not preempt, radical changes...
...In hindsight, we can say that Torrijos was not dictatorial, not revolutionary and certainly not communist...
...Since relinquishing government responsibilities three years ago, Torrijos had devoted much of his energy to international politics, establishing here, too, an eclectic record...
...The PRD's bid to institutionalize the regime depended on its ability to rally popular support, coopt opposition business groups and find new sources of economic growth...
...A faction closely allied to U.S...
...The resolution will depend, in part, on the balance of forces within the General Staff, conditioned by the strategic interests of U.S...
...His crowning achievement, the Canal treaties, failed by a long shot to meet the requirements of Panamanian sovereignty 6ver the nation's vital resource...
...They have since sought, assiduously, to regain the power they once held...
...Housing laws, the labor code, incentives to small farmers-one after the other, they were scrapped, until only the skin of the fruits once promised remained...
...The Reagan Administration, never fond of Torrijos, saw this support as intolerable defiance and a threat to its regional policies...
...It has little assurance that the National Guard will continue backing its policies or that, with the power struggle to replace Torrijos' leadership still unresolved, the military will maintain the low profile adopted by Torrijos since 1968...
...The problem is that the groups Torrijos had united in the party, while loyal to him and the new structures, have serious internal political differences...
...They opposed the reforms enacted during Torrijos' early populist years and the changes in state structures that enlarged popular participation and curtailed their influence...
...Certainly the General's politics were eclectic...
...It also required the National Guard to back government policies and abstain from day-today political affairs...
...Forced for several years to channel their pressure through business aasociations, they re-entered the political stage as parties in 1977, thanks largely to U.S...
...His sudden disappearance creates a political void...
...They signal the revitalization of an independent labor movement, ready to press its claims in the streets, outside and, if need be, in defiance of government mediation...
...and Within the Guard Torrijos' immediate successor is Colonel Florencio Flores, Chief of Staff and of Police Services...
...At issue is not only control of the government but of the very structure of the state...
...imperialism in the Caribbean and Central America...
...At the time of Torrijos' death, the regime he had built was in crisis...
...Torrijos was also convinced, however, that reactionary dictatorships invited rebellion, could not stand long, and that the best prescription for stability was to hasten their replacement...
...How his disappearance affects other sectors depends largely on how these first two cope with it...
...If successful, he would probably continue Torrijos' policies...
...At first glance, Torrijos' political career seems impossible to define...
...Although presidential elections were still three years away, he was already considered the PRD's candidate...
...Torrijos was the only figure with enough prestige and popular support to keep the opposition at bay...
Vol. 15 • July 1981 • No. 4
