Central America
Events in Guatemala and El Salvador in the months since the Sandinista victory have provided a gold mine for "domino theorists". In an upsurge of militant actions in August, members of the...
...Communications have also stepped up among the revolutionary organizations of Guatemala...
...His business empire extended throughout the region as did his SeptlOct 1979 political strongarm...
...Nicaragua's withdrawal may have dealt a fatal blow to the grouping, whose remaining members are Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador...
...policy makers are in a Catch-22 bind in Central America...
...The July kidnapping of the vice-minister of foreign affairs by the Rebel Armed Forces (FAR) was followed in early August by a militant strike by over 2000 banana workers protesting the kidnapping of their union leaders...
...And in El Salvador, where government controlled death squads murdered 280 people during May and June, the killing of activists continues unabated...
...If the new Nicaraguan government withdraws from the regional trade grouping as rumored, the already weakened CACM could very well collapse...
...Meanwhile students staged a nine day nationwide strike against the repressive policies of the Ministry of Education, and the Guerrilla Army of the Poor (EGP) stepped up their armed propaganda actions throughout the country...
...Both the left and the popular masses have undoubtedly drawn lessons from the successes in Nicaragua...
...He helped stage electoral frauds in Guatemala -and sent his air force to put down rebellions in El Salvador...
...Those who stand to lose the most would be U.S...
...ruling circles that revolution might come to other countries in the region...
...Moreover, the moderate opposition in both Guatemala and El Salvador is almost totally discredited, as are electoral strategies for change...
...Similarly, the Lucas government in Guatemala has announced that civilians will probably run for president in 1982...
...The military regimes in Guatemala and El Salvador are incapable of dealing with mounting popular rebellion except by escalating their repression...
...backing in 1964 to coordinate Central American armies, particularly their counterrevolutionary activities...
...These fears have a basis in reality...
...Many transnationals have been closing up shop recently, partly because of uncertain economic conditions...
...As the military regimes realize, any let-up in repression would be quickly taken advantage of by the popular movement...
...Both of these actions were warmly praised by the Carter Administration...
...Costa Rica, almost totally isolated economically from its northern neighbors during the war in Nicaragua, is already calling for expanded trade with other Latin American countries to offset the possible loss of the region-wide market...
...At the same time, it has touched off fears in both local and U.S...
...As one State Department official told the Senate recently, "The central issue is not whether change is to occur, but whether that change is to be violent and radical or peaceful and evolutionary...
...The continuing repression indicates there is little interest in a democratic opening...
...Then in early September, the Popular Liberation Forces (or FPL, the country's largest guerrilla organization) assassinated the brother of Salvadorean president Carlos Romero...
...A major concern of local and foreign capitalists is the shaky future of the Central American Common Market (CACM...
...Militarily as well, events in Nicaragua have upset regional coordination among Central America's ruling circles...
...In an upsurge of militant actions in August, members of the Popular Revolutionary Bloc in El Salvador took over six factories in the capital city, while another group of workers staged a hunger strike in the main cathedral...
...The presidents of these three countries, who met several times recently to discuss the situation in Central America in the wake of Somoza's fall, have already proposed forming a new military alliance...
...They marched through the streets of the capital in a funeral procession for assassinated members of their organization, even though several people had been killed the previous day when troops fired into a crowd of demonstrators...
...But, since Nicaragua this has begun to change...
...Both of these groups now belong to the Democratic Front Against Repression, a coalition led by militant unions and peasant organizations...
...based transnationals with operations in the region, as well as industrialists from Guatemala and El Salvador (which together account for about 60% of exports within the region ). Costa Rica and Honduras, whose trade balance with other CACM members has been consistently negative, are already chafing at the bit...
...Their aim is clearly to join forces in preventing "another Nicaragua" in Central America...
...CONTAINING THE REVOLUTION The destablilizing impact of the Sandinista victory has touched off a major debate within the Carter Administration over how to deal with the situation in Central America...
...Hard-liners in the intelligence community are arguing for renewed military aid and unqualified support for the two dictatorships...
...Indeed, right-wing critics of Romero (some of them within the armed forces itself) are accusing him of being too lenient with the left, and rumors of a possible coup are cir46 culating in the country...
...Free elections are a promise that no one believes in...
...Guatemala's death squads continue to claim seven to eight victims daily...
...During July around $200 million was transferred from El Salvador to banks in Miami...
...U.S...
...In Guatemala, the government broke up a large demonstration celebrating the FSLN victory, but was unable to stop smaller rallies throughout the country...
...On the other hand, "moderate" solutions are next to impossible...
...ECONOMIC AND MILITARY DESTABILIZATION The new balance of forces in Central America in the wake of the Sandinista victory has also sent a tremor of anxiety through business circles, leading to a sizeable flight of capital...
...With almost no mass base, groups like the Christian Democrats in Guatemala are seen as ineffectual at best and government stooges at worst...
...In recent months, Venezuelan social democratic leader Carlos Andres Perez has called the Guatemalan and Salvadorean dictatorships "autocracies as abominable as Somoza's, dressed up in electoral clothes...
...In response, Romero has 45update . update update...
...The New York Times recently quoted "high Guatemalan sources" in reporting talks among the Guerrilla Army of the Poor (EGP), the Rebel Armed Forces (FAR) and a wing of the Communist Party that is open to armed struggle...
...update promised municipal and congressional elections for 1980 (to be supervised by the OAS), and has allowed moderate opposition figures to return from exile abroad...
...In Guatemala, an estimated $40 million left the country and new investment has slowed to a virtual standstill...
...The following week thousands of Bloc members defied a government ban on all demonstrations...
...After a support strike by 7000 workers on a neighboring plantation the unionists were released and won indemnity payments for themselves and striking workers...
...And even the Honduran military Junta has pleaded "not to be measured with the same yardstick as the other two military governments...
...The latter were joined by 150 supporters in other churches demanding respect for workers' rights and protesting the cold-blooded murder of an activist priest by right-wing forces...
...Even normally peaceful Costa Rica experienced a general strike by workers at the country's main port of Limon and the threat of a strike by public sector unions...
...In addition, the leading "moderate" parties there, the Social Democrats and the United Front of the Revolution, have been pushed further left recently by the murder or exile of several of their prominent leaders...
...During recent visits to El Salvador, Under Secretary of State Viron Vaky and former U.S...
...During the recent war in Nicaragua, both countries reciprocated by sending arms and soldiers to defend Somoza, a move that did not help their popularity in Latin America...
...special negotiator in Nicaragua William Bowdler put heavy pressure on President Romero to make at least some minimal democratic reforms...
...The new Nicaraguan government has withdrawn from CONDECA (Consejo de Defensa Centro Americano), a regional military grouping set up with U.S...
...The FPL spokesperson is quoted as saying, "Until now, our movements have been isolated from each other, and due to an absurd ideological competition, there were divisions and even mutual attacks, although we all have Marxist orientation...
...State Department officials, on the other hand, have opted for a different strategy to stem the revolutionary tide, more in line with the one they are pursuing in Nicaragua (see article in this Update...
...Besides a step up in activity by revolutionary groups, there are also signs of growing coordination among different organizations in Guatemala and El Salvador...
...Somoza was known as the Central American "godfather...
...They are desperately trying to get the Salvadorean and Guatemalan governments to take some steps towards political liberalization before it is "too late...
...Honduras, only a partial participant since the 1969 war with El Salvador, is demanding special treatment as a condition for renewed participation...
...According to the Mexican daily Excelsior, the FPL has started talks with the country's other major armed revolutionary organizations, the Armed Forces of National Resistance (FARN) and the smaller People's Revolutionary Army...
...NEW BALANCE OF FORCES While the recent upsurge in popular militancy hardly confirms the falling domino theory, the Sandinista victory in Nicaragua has introduced an important new element to the political balance of forces in the region, It has given a powerful impulse to popular movements in the rest of Central America...
...While trying to make political capital of these window-dressing reforms, the dictatorships have not lessened their fierce repression of the popular movements...
...As outspoken government critic Archbishop Oscar Romero of San Salvador summed up Romero's response, "The government reacts to pressure from the U.S., but it doesn't believe its own statements...
...Radio Sandino is easily heard throughout Central America, and the course of the popular war against Somoza was followed closely...
...Without democratic reforms there are sure to be revolutionary explosions in both El Salvador and Guatemala...
...The destabilizing impact of the victory on the popular political consciousness in Central America has been considerable...
...And Somoza's downfall also leaves the remaining dictatorships weakened and internationally isolated...
Vol. 13 • September 1979 • No. 5
