Profiteering in the Hemisphere
Henwood, Doug
The goal of opening up foreign product and financial markets is now pursued with the same missionary zeal that fighting Communism once was, and with similarly uplifting rhetoric about...
...In its trade relations with almost every region of the world, U.S...
...Argentina might be a likely next candidate for a deal with Washington, but as John Sweeney, chief Latin American analyst for the Stratfor consultancy points out, this might cause trouble with Brazil, which is eager to promote itself as a regional hegemon, an alternative to U.S...
...Yet even their critiques were too extreme to be acceptable...
...The largest share of the regional deficit is accounted for by Mexico, with the U.S...
...He almost immediately began making waves in papers, articles and public speeches...
...This is of great relevance to Latin America in several respects...
...He claimed that the disastrous results of economic reform in Russia were "not just due to sound policies being poorly implemented," but to "a misunderstanding of the foundations of a market economy...
...Bureau of co Ame.ica.Ca"ibbean is artifici 1982 20.9% 44.4% 7.8% 3.4% 13.6% 9.9% 100.0% S207.8 bil s 5.5% 4.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% Share of U.S...
...trade with Latin America, in fact, grew very rapidly during the 1990s.4 That rapid growth translated into a sharp increase in Latin America's market share of U.S...
...Berger's analysis of Mexico is symptomatic of the fact that during the Clinton years, U.S...
...A country that runs a steady trade essentially living beyond its meansconsuming more than it producesand it has to borrow the difference...
...Mexico's peso crisis put that goal into disrepute...
...Not, of course, that exports translate all that well into improvements in human welfare...
...Census Bureau, the keeper of the trade statistics, calls "Twenty Latin American Republics": Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela...
...One thing that seems unlikely, though, is that any new trade agreements would include reforms of the sort called for by Mexican President-elect Vicente Fox...
...market means much more to Latin America than Latin America does to the United States...
...trade with its various partners from U.S...
...policy...
...by 1999, the deficit had grown almost 50-fold, to $29 billion, or 0.3% of GDP...
...How long this can continue, after the mass demonstrations against the Bank, the IMF and the World Trade Organization in Seattle, Washington, D.C...
...Over half of all foreign investments by U.S.-based MNCs-known in the jargon as foreign direct investment (FDI)-are in Western Europe...
...Clearly, U.S...
...exports and the source of 19.39% of imports...
...2. "Fast track" legislation delegates great power to the president to negotiate trade agreements, first granted to Richard Nixon in 1973...
...Which, it seems, is all that matters these days...
...separately...
...deficit is Stiglitz noted that the frequent financial crises were not accidents, but symptoms of the ease with which money could flow in and out of few remaining obstacles to easy in- national and-out access lifted...
...Private markets have short memories, which is one reason the IMF exists...
...interest rates will almost certainly trickle down to Latin markets...
...Just how limited the scope is for criticism of the standard package-budget cutbacks, opening to trade, privatization, dismantling of social protections, financial "liberalization," the marketization of almost everything-was made clear by the departure over the last year of two economists from the World Bank, Joseph Stiglitz and Ravi Kanbur...
...POLICY this total is accounted for by the tax and regulatory shelters Bermuda and Panama...
...Cuba was presented along with Iran and Iraq as a pariah state whose regime change will eventually have to be managed (and that it is perfectly natural for the United States to have a hand in the management is simply assumed...
...Trading Partners Canada European Union Mexico Japan China Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Rep...
...shown as a percentage of the world total...
...The United States may share a hemisphere with Latin America, but the region is far from the first thing on U.S...
...recession may lessen the prestige of the country's economic model, for now, Washington isn't admitting even the slightest challenge to the so-called Washington Consensus on development policy...
...ut the situation for the United States is unsustainable...
...If numbers like these were faced by any other countrysuch as Mexico in early 1994 or Thailand in early 1997-they would be cause for great worry...
...radar screen...
...The U.S...
...A more serious version would be a panicked flight of capital from U.S...
...10% are in Canada...
...farmers and other businesses eager to end the trade embargo, right-wing Miami Cubans are no longer defining policy...
...owed foreigners over a trillion dollars more than they owed U.S...
...Brazil and Mexico make up much of the rest...
...foreign policy has been driven more nakedly by economic interests than it was during the Cold War...
...Mexico paid interest to the U.S...
...The alleged cost of the rescue was combined with the growing political backlash against "nrlh~l"tinn A n0n thA rl]ntnn The table shows the percentage share of U.S...
...Investment Canada Rich Europe Rich Asia Asian NICs* Latin America/ Caribbean** Rest of World World Total U.S...
...Treasury on borrowed funds, pledged oil revenues as security for the loan, and embraced the austerity and market opening policies the Treasury loves-privatization legislation, liberalization of telecommunications, expanding the scope of private pension funds and strengthening the independence of the central bank...
...That may change in coming years as the "Hispanic" share of the electorate continues to increase-which isn't to say that such a varied population will think or vote as one...
...Regional trade schemes like Mercosur are controversial in Washington, for both ideological and political reasons...
...U.S orts Imports 5.7% 118.2% 9.8% 126.6% .2% 252.5% .4% 43.0% .8% 331.2% .0% 101.9% .6% 7.3% .7% 68.4% '.4% 126.8% A.4% 128.7% .3% 243.9% .2% .30% 113.5% '0% 37.2% .7% 429.9% .87% 151.9% .,4% 5.9% '.4% 387.3% '.3% 732.3% .1% 35.6% .5% 11.6% .9%, 148.6% .6% -16.3% .0% 38.6% member countries Administration suffered a serious defeat when it failed to get fast-track trade negotiating authority through Congress in 1998.2 Without that authority, the executive branch is severely hampered in negotiating grand deals like an FTAA...
...The seven largest Latin American/Caribbean sites of U.S...
...Fox wants to rework NAFTA along the lines of the European Union-with serious amounts of development aid for Mexico, and the free movement of people across borders...
...For Mexico, the dependence is even greater, rising from 65% in 1980 to 80% in 1991 to 83% in 1999.5 All these trade figures tell a story of a deepening of economic integration in the hemisphere relative to the rest of the world...
...public...
...Those seven out 80% of the Latin American/Caribbean total...
...Mexico appes largest national source of U.S...
...He refused, and angrily resigned.8 2: U.S Foeg Diec Inetmn tue of U.S...
...In 1999, Congress voted by large margins to ease restrictions on travel and on pharmaceutical exportsthough diehard anti-Fidelistas will continue to slip noxiously restrictive clauses into larger bills in the hope of getting them passed by an otherwise unsympathetic body...
...This was not the way the last decade's trade policies were sold to the U.S...
...the more developed markets of Western Europe and Asia are generally less volatile and therefore more attractive to U.S.-based portfolio managers than are Latin markets...
...Take away Mexico, and only Brazil and Venezuela would squeeze their way onto the U.S...
...international accounts would swing back towards some kind of balance...
...5. Computed from IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, various issues...
...trade entity, and ranks s. The two right1991 to 1999...
...Value of Investment Sites of U.S...
...hunted for by the he destination of rs as the secondr exports...
...trade deficit (imports minus exports) rose from 1.1% of GDP in 1991 to 3.5% in 1999...
...Still, at 20%, Latin America's total share of U.S...
...the higher rates would provoke a recession, import demand would weaken, and the U.S...
...For economists, trade-diverting agreements are inefficient, while trade-creating ones are desirable, since they are thought to maximize growth, and with it, human happiness-which, to your average economist, amount to the same thing...
...Stiglitz, who during his academic career was regarded as one of the stars of his field, and is a likely Nobelist sometime in the near future, was appointed chief economist of the Bank in 1996 after heading Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisors...
...The European Union appears as a single trading just behind Canada as both a destination of exports and a source of import hand columns show the growth of U.S...
...foreign policy specialist, is a man on a mission...
...entities-a net debt of almost 11% of GDP...
...But that is not the way things were perceived by the U.S...
...But for now, mainstream national politicians pay little public attention to the region beyond the headline issues of immigration and drugs...
...The United States became a creditor country in 1916, and remained one for decades...
...business and political elites is whether or not U.S...
...A U.S...
...He indiscreetly pointed out that the rapid growth seen in East Asia in the 1980s and 1990s, and with it, the sharp advance in social indicators like health and literacy, would have been impossible without the heavy state intervention forbidden elsewhere by the dominant international financial institutionschiefly the IMF...
...shift from debtor to creditor status in its international accounts...
...Profiteering in the Hemisphere 1. Samuel R. Berger, "A Foreign Policy for the Global Age," speech given at Georgetown University's Intercultural Center, Washington, D.C., October 19, 2000, <http:/Av/www.pub.whitehouse.gov/urires/ 12R?urn:pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/2000/10/20/14.text.1...
...its creditor position eroded, and it sank into a net debtor position in 1986...
...Aside 1% of U.S...
...crunch will tarnish the prestige of its economic model, which has been the dubious ideal according to which the hemisphere's economies have been reconstructed since the debt crisis broke out in 1982...
...No, it is partly because NAFTA empowered Mexico's reformers to open up their system, and because America's support for Mexico during its financial crisis gave reforms time to prevail...
...exports lags behind those of Canada and the European Union...
...FDI Selected Latin Americ Caribbean countries Bermuda Brazil Mexico Panama Argentina Chile Venezuela Source: U.S...
...In other words, three-quarters of all U.S...
...Of course, the United States is no ordinary country, but it's clear that at some point, foreign investors will become alarmed...
...As Julia Sweig, the Cuba specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, points out, the political environment has changed.1o With Jorge Mas Canosa dead, the Cold War over and U.S...
...Imports ($1.024 trillion) Share Rank 19.39% 1 19.05% * 10.71% 3 12.77% 2 7.98% 4 0.25% 0.02% 0.29% 0.61% 0.39% 0.00% 0.42% 0.18% 0.16% 43 92 16 37 27 35 198 32 50 54 Gro Exp 95 39 161 19 108 142 55 114 67 82 130 246 135 -4 184 Guatemala 0.26% 42 0.22% 45 91 Haiti 0.09% 59 0.03% 81 55 Honduras 0.34% 38 0.26% 41 279 Nicaragua 0.05% 68 0.05% 70 149 Panama N/A 43 0.04% 76 78 Paraguay N/A 63 0.00% 123 37 Peru 0.24% 45 0.19% 46 101 Uruguay N/A 66 0.02% 96 128 Venezuela 0.77% 24 1.11% 15 15 Sour: U.S...
...Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers...
...POLICY affiliation partly disarms the strongest opposition, like unions and mainstream environmentalists...
...structural adjustment, whether relatively REPORT ON U.S...
...Remarkably, the view persists in Congress, as well as among opinion makers and the population in general, that the "bailout" of Mexico was an act of generosity-Tb 1 S.T that the United States bore some real costs in the rescue of the Mexican economy...
...Average Mexicans have not benefited greatly from the explosion in maquiladora economies...
...The import figures are somewhat less impressive, with Latin America's share of U.S...
...9. Stanley Fischer, speech given at the LACEA 2000 conference, Rio de Janeiro, October 12, 2000...
...interest rates over the previous year...
...In recent years, Washington's policy towards the region has been reactive-ad hoc responses to what are perceived as problems, like financial panics, immigration, drugs and the Elidn melodrama, rather than emerging from any strategic or neighborly vision...
...3. George W. Bush, "Century of the Americas," speech delivered in Miami, Florida, August 25, 2000...
...the Mexico bailout was assimilated instead to a long tradition of U.S...
...The value of U.S...
...imports rising from 12% in 1991 to almost 17% in the early months of 2000 (see Table 1...
...The goal of opening up foreign product and financial markets is now pursued with the same missionary zeal that fighting Communism once was, and with similarly uplifting rhetoric about democracy...
...Mexico's 1994 peso crisis was a fairly predictable result of the doubling of U.S...
...Exports ($695.8 billion) Share Rank 23.94% 1 21.82% * 12.49% 2 8.26% 3 1.88% 12 0.71% 0.04% 1.90% 0.44% 0.51%7 0,34% 0.00% 0.59% 0.13% 0.22% 26 76 11 32 30 37 192 28 53 47 U.S...
...POLICY mild and drawn out, or sudden and severe, will have to occur over the next several years...
...4. In these trade statistics, "Latin America" refers to what the U.S...
...market over the last two decades...
...Investment figures tell a similar story...
...Even if a grand FTAA is not in the cards yet, bilateral and regional liberalization deals are likely to continue, and they could serve as the building blocks of a de facto hemispheric free trade zone...
...U.S...
...imperial self-pity...
...To the contrary, IMF Deputy Director Stanley Fischer recently stated that having dollarized its economy, Ecuador can only expect "increasingly tight" discipline, which should only be met with greater "flexibility" in the domestic economy-which means greater freedom on the part of employers to cut wages and fire workers.9 Cuba, on the other hand, presents a different kind of challenge to U.S...
...Another is the persistence of Fidel Castro...
...For an informative Q&A, see the Citizens Trade Watch website, <http://www.tradewatch.org/FastTrack/ftqa.htm...
...Kanbur is an academic economist who was brought in by Stiglitz to supervise the writing of the World Development Report, the Bank's flagship annual document...
...In 1980, 34% of the region's exports went to the United States...
...But of more compelling interest than this intellectual dispute to U.S...
...foreign direct investment (FDI)-the foreign operations of U.S.porations, as well as U.S...
...in 1991 it was 44%, and in 1999, 52...
...Looking at things from the other side of the border, Latin America as a whole has been growing more dependent on the U.S...
...multints worth $1.133 trillion abroad, of which 9.9% was in Canada, and 19.7% he Caribbean...
...border, making extensive maquiladora-style trade unlikely...
...dominance operating through Mercosur, the Southern common market...
...Colombia is mentioned as an "old democracy" at risk of failing...
...interests, and if it encourages Brazil's political influence, also at the expense of the United States, then Washington would be very displeased and would try to horn in on the action...
...But early in the Reagan years, the United States started borrowing heavily abroad...
...The financial corollary of that political fact was the U.S...
...He noted that the frequent financial crises of recent decades, which have thrown millions at a time into penury, were not accidents, but symptoms of underlying flaws in the system of free global capital flows and persistent bad decisions by private This table shows the val based multinational cot ions regions and country FDI in each region is s nationals had investme atiLatin America and t direct investment are sh sites now account for ab its earned in the region investors...
...Gore, who barely said a word about Latin America throughout his run for the presidency, was thought to be constrained by political debts to the unions that contributed $40 million to the Democratic Party during this election cycle-though similar debts did little to constrain Clinton's enthusiasm for NAFTA and the FTAA...
...The overall U.S...
...President appoint a special envoy, on the model of George Mitchell's Northern Ireland portfolio, to come up with a list of recommendations on how to go about normalizing diplomatic and commercial relations...
...While there is some truth to this, things are really a bit more complicated (see Table 2...
...minority interests in foreign-owned firms-in varies, as well as the rates of return on those investments...
...Of course, the business and political elite is hot to pursue further economic integration, but this is not a popular agenda, so it has to be pursued furtively, behind a mask of "democratization...
...If Mercosur encourages regional trade at the expense of U.S...
...inally, it is worth mentioning that Washington does have a number of traditional "stability" concerns in the hemisphere which, while not economic interests in the narrow sense, are crucial to the creation of an orderly hemisphere and the maintenance of that precious thing, investor confidence...
...Stiglitz and Kanbur are mainstream economists with distinguished CVs-liberal reformists, and not militant revolutionaries...
...The radical economist Joan Robinson once said that the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all...
...policymakers' minds...
...In fact, the U.S...
...Beyond real, on-the-ground investment lies the more infamous kind of cross-border capital movements: the ownership of foreign stocks, bonds and other financial instruments known as portfolio investment...
...In fact, one can make the case that a Democratic president, with his party's growing political debts to the business community, will always be better positioned to push "free-trade" deals through Congress than a Republican, because his party REPORT ON U.S...
...Of all countries in the region, only Mexico really fits the bill as a low-wage production platform in any major sense...
...In 1999, for example, U.S...
...trade accounts going from $2 billion in the black in 1991 to almost $23 billion in the red in 1999...
...7. Joseph Stiglitz, "Whither Reform?: Ten Years of the Transition," keynote address, World Bank Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, D.C., April 1999, <www.worldbank.org/research/abcde/washington_ 1/pdfs/stiglitz.pdf...
...He denounced the Washington Consensus...
...Bush, though not all members of his party are big fans of trade agreements-a reluctance born more out of xenophobia than concern for the working class-gave a major speech advocating increased trade with the region early in the campaign...
...market has been a rich source of demand while much of the rest of the world has been afflicted with stagnation and panic...
...Almost none is in the poorest countries of Africa, South Asia or the Caribbean...
...own in the order of their importance to U.S...
...That many Mexican "reformers" are no fans of NAFTA, and that many of NAFTA's most enthusiastic proponents were the enemies of "reform," is beside the point, since Berger, like any U.S...
...Kanbur opened up the previously secretive process, posting a draft on the Web and soliciting public comment...
...investors in 1999...
...8% are in the richer countries of Asia, and another 6% are in the "newly industrializing" countries of Asia...
...It frequently defaulted, too, having more leeway than today's international debtors.6 By the early twentieth century, though, the United States had matured as an industrial power, and was overtaking Britain as the global master state...
...It is widely believed that multinational corporations (MNCs) are racing to move production into low-wage countries, and that Latin America is one of their prime targets...
...But Latin America is only one of many destinations...
...While a U.S...
...And, on an ideological plane, a U.S...
...it has a longer memory and more intellectual coherence than do commercial bankers and bond traders...
...Nor has Latin America been much of a concern of electoral politics...
...Sweig, whose employer is the very embodiment of establishment thinking, has told me she would like to see the new U.S...
...This whole syndrome was evident in a major foreign policy address given this fall by Samuel "Sandy" 00 Berger, Bill Clinton's national security advisor...
...In 1999, the U.S...
...long with the push for formalizing economic integration through trade agreements has come a deepening of U.S...
...FDI is in countries as rich as or richer than South Korea...
...In 1999, for example, Canada was th 23.94% of U.S...
...This spin offended Summers and the Clinton Administration...
...Bureau of Economic Analysis <www.bea.doc.gov> SThe European Union is unranked because official U.S statistics rank each of its 15...
...When the United States was a "developing" country in the nineteenth century, it borrowed heavily abroad, and was a net debtor in its international accounts...
...trade deficit with Latin America was a mere $584 million in 1991, an almost microscopic number next to U.S...
...imports and the third-largest destination fo from Mexico, the only Latin American countries accounting for more than are Brazil and Venezuela...
...Though after the Asian crisis of 1997 it looked for a few minutes as if the Washington Consensus was under intellectual and political siege, Washington fought back and, for the moment, still has the upper hand...
...Growth can take some of the edge off the situation, as it has done elsewhere, but the polarization has not been seriously addressed by the Washington Consensus...
...FDI 1990 16.1% 49,7% 9.5% 3.8% 16.6% 4.2% Rate of Return Profit/Value 999 1982 1990 1999 .9% 6.7% 6.9% 9.9% .7% .9% 19.7% 6.3% 100.0% 100.0% $430.5 bil - -$1.133tril 4.7% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 7.9% 9.0% 7.9% 22.4% 20.7% 12.2% 16.2% 12.2% 8.3% N/A N/A N/A 12.0% 13.5% 9.3% 12.1% 10.2% 9.1% 10.0% 9.9% 4.6% -1.0% 17.9% 13.8% 12.8% 11.6% 6.2% 8.1% 16.0% 3.6% -21.2% 17.8% 9.5% 12.15% 14.0% 7.9% nomic Analysis <wwwbeeadoc.gov> *Newly Industrializing Countries ** FDI in Latin illy low in 1982 am l 1990due to tax losses generated in the Netherands Antilles...
...Mexico's share of the global total is up only slightly from the early 1980s, and Brazil's is down...
...The region accounted for less than 14% of U.S...
...Mexico was thrown into a deep, long recession, while the economic fallout in the United States was barely measurable...
...Yes, Latin America and the Caribbean are the sites of almost 20% of U.S...
...imports have grown faster than its exports, and trade with Latin America is no exception...
...From a purely mercantilist point of view, the United States has little to show for its mission of opening up trade and investment in the hemisphere-or, indeed, the rest of the world...
...Though this is rarely talked about in public, some form of U.S...
...In 1980, the country's net creditor position with the rest of the world was over 11% of GDP...
...8. This sketch of the Stiglitz and Kanbur affairs was developed through extensive conversations with World Bank sources who wish to remain anonymous...
...investors have shown considerable interest in plunging into Latin American stock markets (and considerable interest in selling quickly when things go sour), and would no doubt like to see the employment-though given the depressed condition of the Mexican labor market, it's probably better than nothing...
...The U.S...
...that share rose to just over 20% in the first half of 2000...
...And Mexico appears in this rather surreal passage: "If the people of Mexico have built a multi-party system, is it because democracy is unstoppable in a 'dot.com' world...
...trade with and investment in Latin America...
...The draft argued that growth was not enough to reduce poverty--that policy had to be tilted in favor of the poor...
...In a text of over 5,000 words, "Latin America" didn't appear once, and the only countries mentioned by name were Mexico, Colombia and Cuba...
...These ideas have not been well received in Washington, and they're not likely to be anytime in the imaginable future...
...The goal of opening up foreign product and financial markets is now pursued with the same missionary zeal that fighting Communism once was, and with similarly uplifting rhetoric about democracy...
...public...
...wth, 1991-99 J.S...
...Kanbur was ordered to rewrite the document to be more in line with the prevailing orthodoxy that growth is enough in itself...
...Rates of return are the profor country divided by the value of the assets invested...
...trade...
...exports in 1991...
...firms are part of the action...
...Ideologically, there is a dispute over whether they encourage fresh trade or merely redirect trade that would have occurred anyway, though perhaps among different partners...
...government made money on the deal while taking little risk...
...Higher U.S...
...Pundits would be writing worried columns about growing risks, foreign exchange traders would be ganging up on the currency, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be itchy to prescribe structural adjustment...
...One of those concerns is the chronic instability of the Andean region-Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia...
...7 For these heresies, Stiglitz was forced out of his position by the U.S...
...Congress consents to limit debate and prohibit any amendments to the treaty text...
...Foreign investors in Brazil are mainly interested in selling to Brazilians, and the chronic troubles of the Brazilian economy are a major reason why the investment figures aren't more impressive than they are...
...These numbers are good news for Latin American exporters...
...markets, a collapse in the dollar, a major spike in interest rates, and a deep slump...
...Andean instability is both cause and consequence of economic stagnation combined with the growing polarization between rich and poor...
...the U.S...
...exports and imports acco country's various trading partners...
...That Washington's policy toward Latin America-particularly trade policyis not exactly a partisan issue was underscored by the lack of real debate in this fall's election campaign...
...The first Summit of the Americas, held in late 1994 just before the Mexican peso crisis, was conceived as a high-profile promotional event on behalf of a proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA...
...The economic integration of the hemisphere-essentially an extension of NAFTA to this half of the globe-was once a major part of that struggle...
...Ecuador El Salvador U.S...
...So it is unlikely that the next hemispheric summit, to be held in Canada in April 2001, will do much to promote the FTAA, since the President is unlikely to have fast track authority in his pocket-though there is some speculation that he might try to force it through Congress during his honeymoon period...
...and Prague, is far from certain...
...6. Despite frequent defaults, the United States always mannaged to borrow again...
...The speech, however, is a fairly unremarkable document, full of passion for Venezuela's oil, Brazil's market, the broadening of NAFTA, the revival of Radio and TV Marti, tightening border controls, and support for the crackdown on the "vision of Marxism-Leninism [funded] with the profits of drugs" in Colombia.3 Should the President get fast-track authority, it seems likely that negotiations to bring Chile into NAFTA would be his first order of business-though the effects on both countries of a free-trade deal would not be too profound, since Chile's economy is smaller than Mexico's, and the country is a long way from the U.S...
...FDI, up from 14% in 1982, but over a third of REPORT ON U.S...
...At the mildest, the Federal Reserve will have to push up interest rates to attract foreign capital...
...recession will almost certainly mean reduced demand for Latin exports...
...He claimed that moderate inflation was harmless, that modest budget deficits were no danger and that privatization was no miracle cure...
...I say "along with" because it is not easy to say which causes which-whether politically formalized integration is the cause or effect of economic facts on the ground...
Vol. 34 • November 2000 • No. 3
