THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AFTER THE CAUDILLOS

...He predicts that the political engagement of New York Dominicans will increase due to steadily rising numbers, heightened political consciousness as well as a growing estrangement from their homeland...

...Remittances from the United States, free-trade zones and tourism have all helped to buoy the economy...

...During Balaguer's first two terms (1966-78), the military profited enormously from the patrimonial political system...

...A pervasive emigration mentality has developed among all those sectors of society which have not been direct beneficiaries in the past decade...

...The way this tension unfolds will tell a great deal about the transition from the authoritarian Trujillo-Balaguer legacy to a more democratic state...

...In 1986, for example, Cardinal Jos6 de Jestis L6pez Rodriguez led a group of influential citizens-called los Notables--to supervise elections when conflicts between the presidential candidates led to an impasse...

...Balaguer gave jobs and contracts to his followers and used government monies to fund his own particular projects...

...The Dominican military is also a force to be watched...

...He reintegrated the retired generals into the armed forces and, once again, allowed top officers to enrich themselves under government protection...

...The package was complemented by the Reagan administration's Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) which stimulated the production of apparel for export by allowing designated countries, including the Dominican Republic, to export certain goods to the United States under favorable circumstances...

...But they cannot resolve the social problems resulting from the process of economic restructuring...

...The present issue is published as the Republic finds itself at a crossroads...

...Helen Safa shows how these developments have worsened the lot of women, and reports that many women have turned to more individualistic solutions, forsaking collective actions...

...The individuals who have dominated the political scene since 1963Joaquin Balaguer, Juan Bosch and Jos6 Francisco Pefia G6mez-have been eclipsed by a much younger figure, Leonel Femrnndez Reyna, who assumed the presidency last August...

...April, 1965: A "constitutionalist" uprising seeks to restore Bosch to the presidency...

...The failure of the PRD and PLD to end caudillismo and lead the struggle against this authoritarian legacy is largely due to the underdevelopment of Dominican society...

...Ferndndez took Palace of dictator Leonidas Trujillo, now occupied by 92 squatter office in the wake of three decades of profound eco- families in Santo Domingo...

...June, 1996: PLD candidate Leonel Ferndndez Reyna, with the support of both Bosch and Balaguer, defeats PRD candidate Jos4 Francisco Perfa G6mez in a runoff election...

...This time the fraud is so potentially destabilizing that local and international pressure forces him to agree to new elections in two years, in which he will not be a candidate...

...The free-trade zones, on the other hand, only contribute in the form of very low wages paid to workers, while tourism is largely controlled by foreign tour operators and large international hotel A POLITICAL CHRONOLOGY May, 1961: Dictator Rafael Leonidas Trujillo, who had ruled since 1930, is assassinated...

...Any process opposition, and of change must alter the failing that, to way the Dominican political game is both perrepress it...

...And society must produce the political forces which will organize its political dimension, the state...

...Nonetheless, the old caudillo reaped great benefit from the splits that occurred between and within the two opposition parties...

...Democratic development can only occur on an historical continuum...

...While the Dominican economy underwent these transformations in the 1970s and 1980s, employment opportunities plummeted...

...Members of Leonel Ferndndez's Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) demanded jobs after the party's victory, which they saw as a political right...

...tiated a process of military professionalization, but this experiment ended when Balaguer resumed power in 1986...

...May, 1990: Balaguer narrowly defeats Juan Bosch, now of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), amid charges of fraud...

...Steady cuts in already deficient social services have left much of the population without access to sewage or potable water, and about half the population lives at or below the poverty line...

...Consequently its economic power-and its ability to ameliorate social distress-has diminished...

...for democratic developHe aimed to ment, and they will not do so as long as Dominican demobilize the political culture remains unchanged...

...This highlights the extent to which large segments of the traditional opposition to Balaguer's PRSC, organized both in the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD) and the PLD, have been accomodated into what we term a "neo-patrimonial" political system...

...support, Antonio Guzmdn of the PRD retired some 40 pro-Balaguer generals and iniA campaign poster invites voters to choose "the new road" of PLD candidate Leonel Fernandez...

...political and economic support he enjoyed throughout his reign, he would not have been able to preside over a system in which informal-frequently brutal-mechanisms of control proved just as important as the formal ones...

...May, 1966: Joaquin Balaguer, the U.S.-backed candidate and a one-time vice president under Trujillo, is elected President...

...During the 1994 electoral crisis, Church leaders brokered the "Pact for Democracy," [see "Negotiated Elections," p. 20] which resolved the crisis and led to the special 1996 elections...

...August, 1982: PRD candidate Salvador Jorge Blanco is elected...

...August, 1986: Balaguer is elected on the PRSC ticket amid charges of fraud...

...In the early 1970s, for example, Juan Bosch, the founder of the PRD, left the party to found the PLD...

...The ISI model didn't create the jobs promised because it never got beyond the production of light consumer non-durables and assembly operations, and for the average Dominican, things worsened...

...May, 1994: Balaguer narrowly defeats PRD candidate Jose Francisco Pehia G6mez...

...Emelio Betances teaches sociology and coordinates the Latin American Studies program at Gettysburg College...

...This measure won him general approval, but he had to confront significant opposition from the pro-Balaguer factions within the officer corps, where he seems to lack a personal following...

...invasion and occupation of the country...

...There is, however, a more liberal group of officers which ostensibly backs Pefia G6mez, and their actions will be key...

...If one cannot find a job or make a living in the informal sector, then joining a political party becomes a real opportunity which can perhaps provide a solution...

...The devaluations were part of a policy package which substituted a model of export manufacturing for the old economic model of import-substitution industrialization (ISI...

...Developments in the economic, political and military spheres are all to be watched as the country, under a president whose intentions have yet to be revealed, forges what may be a new stage in its not-always-happy history...

...immigration laws also helped him by allowing the mass exodus, which deflated social and political tensions...

...NACIA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 16REPORT ON THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC -After the Caudillos The 1983 devaluation, by lowering dollar-denominated prices on the island, also benefited the tourist sector...

...The elites recognized the need for change in the 1970s and 1980s, but they made sure that these occurred within rigid social and political structures that did not permit popular participation in decision making...

...The uprising sparks a U.S...

...December, 1962: Populist Juan Bosch is elected president as the candidate of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD...

...invasion and occupation of the island that a group of academics, clergy and radical activists organized a 1966 conference called the North American Congress on Latin America...

...This explains why they did not want to hand over power to the PRD in 1978 and were willing to pull off a coup-they wanted not only to protect Balaguer, but to preserve their access to government largesse...

...The Balaguer government had introduced legislation to promote tourism in the 1970s, and over the last ten years the government has dedicated significant state revenues to create needed infrastructure...

...Elections in this period were neither free, nor fair nor competitive...

...He is allowed to take office only after lengthy negotiations with Balaguer and the military, which had inter- vened to stop the ballot counting when Guzmbn appeared to be winning...

...The state has little direct control over these sectors...

...In a promising, though limited, challenge to this authoritarian structure, Lilian Bobea examines the results of an energetic decentralization effort in the north-central province of Salcedo...

...From 1966 to 1978, Balaguer ruled with an iron fist, inhibiting the development of democratic institutions and popular participation...

...In the meantime, a 1983 currency devaluation resulting from negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the cost of doing business on the island for firms earning other currencies, and therefore attracted foreign investors who wished to take advantage of low wages...

...Many, in fact, have transferred their political energies elsewhere, and Howard Jordan looks at the growing political involvement of the Dominican community in New York...

...Developments in the economic sphere will heavily influence events in the Dominican Republic...

...This led to a rapid expansion of zonasfrancas, or free-trade zones (FTZs)-areas in which foreign, export-oriented firms were granted tax and tariff breaks...

...Dominicans have been socialized into seeing the state as the source of a patrimony to which they feel entitled...

...The "congress" stayed together beyond the conference, and in February, 1967, began publishing the NACLA Newsletter, which evolved into today's NACLA Report on the Americas...

...although Balaguer lost the 1978 presidential election to the PRD's Silvestre Antonio Guzmdn, he continued to exert considerable political influence during this period...

...Consequently, in the late 1970s exports plummeted and agriculture entered into a crisis which continues today...

...Middle-income groups, in particular, have seen their aspirations of upward mobility evaporate and have left the country in large numbers...

...But as that president takes center stage, forces beyond his control may be waiting in the wings...

...September, 1963: A military coup ousts Bosch...

...Within a decade of the devaluation, tourism's contribution to the economy had nearly tripled...

...labor has led to the first meaningful union organizing in the zones...

...In addition, evangelical churches have increasingly moved into geographical and social spaces where neither the government nor the Church has provided moral or material support for the population...

...As an authoritarian figure, Balaguer aimed to demobilize the opposition, and failing that, to repress it...

...This is ironic given the fact that recent legislation and a push from U.S...

...President Fernandez made recent moves to reprofessionalize the military last October when he retired 24 of 70 generals...

...She concludes that, to this point, the results are at best mixed, but that local efforts may hold some hope for the future of genuine popular participation...

...In part, the Church assumed this new role out of concern over the recurrence of social violence in the country...

...This is key to understanding the present dilemma that the government faces...

...Hobart Spalding teaches Latin American and Caribbean history at Brooklyn College and the CUNY Graduate Center Both are on the NACLA Editorial Board, and NACLA thanks them for their collaboration on this Report...

...In order to control the military, Balaguer allowed them to become landowners, merchants and industrialists...

...nomic, social and political changes...

...As rural migrants poured into the cities they faced underemployment, unemployment or abject poverty...

...and Dominican militaries have been close ever since...

...Today, FTZs employ over 180,000 people, and are responsible for a growing percentage of the country's exports...

...To mark the tenth anniversary of the invasion, NACLA sponsored a conference at New York University which, although temporarily delayed by a bomb threat, drew a capacity crowd...

...At the same time, corn syrup began to replace cane sugar as a sweetener, and an increasingly health-conscious population in the developed countries reduced its consumption of sugar, coffee, and cacao...

...With U.S...

...wo institutions, the Catholic Church and the military, will have a powerful voice in the Dominican Republic's immediate future...

...It was largely in response to the 1965 U.S...

...He takes office in February, 1963...

...Increasingly, workers, peasants and even middle-income people began to emigrate to the United States or Puerto Rico...

...This crisis forced thousands of farmers out of business and led many to migrate to the cities or abroad...

...Joaqufn Balaguer and his Reformist Social Christian Party (PRSC), with the support of the political and economic elites, put an authoritarian political system in place after the 1965 U.S...

...After the civil war and intervention of 1965, the United States set about reorganizing the armed forces, and relations between the U.S...

...While the Bosch-Pefia G6mez rivalry alone does not explain the PLD-Balaguer alliance in 1996, it helps to shed light on the fact that forces claiming to be democratic have 18NMTA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS NACIA REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 18REPORT ON THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC proved incapable of ending the Balaguer authoritarian legacy-a structure which, in turn, was inherited from dictator Rafael Trujillo, who ruled from 1930 to 1961and to work for real democracy...

...When the country relied on export agriculture, the state controlled a large sector of the economy through its ownership of state enterprises in the sugar sector, which generated over 50% of foreign exchange in 1970...

...forces reorganize the shattered military...

...The 1990 U.S...

...So far Fernmndez seems to be giving in to their demands, despite PLD rhetoric of serving the people...

...Internal political divisions and the scandals that occurred during the subsequent PRD administration of Salvador Jorge Blanco opened the way for Balaguer's return in 1986...

...When opposition groups tried to make their political presence felt, they were either crushed or else blocked from making any meaningful changes...

...census lists a half million Dominicans in the United States, but because of the large number of undocumented immigrants, this figure clearly underestimates the true population...

...Enmity between the two prevented them from joining together against Balaguer and the PRSC, and in 1996, as Roberto Cassd details, the PLD actually allied with Balaguer against Pefia G6mez to prevent his likely presidential victory...

...Many Dominicans have made the United States-particularly New York City-their new home, and remittances by New York Dominicans alone have been estimated at nearly $1 billion a year...

...invasion...

...Over the years, the magazine has devoted considerable space to the Dominican Republic, including country reports in 1970, 1974, 1975 and 1982...

...May, 1970 and May, 1974: Balaguer and his Reformist Social Christian Party (PRSC) are returned to office in elections generally considered fraudulent...

...This pattern, so prevalent in Latin America, bodes ill for the development of democracy...

...But political questions Balaguer were matter too...

...Subsequently, Church leaders called for discussion among labor leaders, business associations and the government which helped defuse tense situations...

...The Church's mediating role thus serves to boost its credibility as an institution...

...ceived and played...

...The economic transformation that has taken place over the past three decades has not consolidated the social forces which could demand a more democratic society, but has polarized society and driven out many of those who might push for equity...

...The ability of the country to attract foreign investment, the flow of loans from international and private institutions, levels of remittances from the community abroad, the continued growth-or stagnation-of the FTZs, the ability of the country to export, and a resolution to questions of regional-Caribbean as well as North American-Elections under integration all loom large...

...While in office, Jorge Blanco had agreed to unalterable arrangements with the IMF, which limited Balaguer's room to maneuver...

...VOL XXX, NO 5 MARCH/APRIL 1997 17REPORT ON THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC chains...

...Since the mid-1970s, however, in a move to protect domestic sugar producers, the United States has drastically reduced the Dominican sugar quota...

...This amount compares favorably to the contribution made by tourism and the FTZs...

...This generated a fierce rivalry between Bosch and his successor as head of the PRD, Jos6 Francisco Peiia G6mez...

...The national political parties have cultivated the same expectations...

...His administration ends amid wide- spread charges of corruption...

...Without the U.S...

...For much of the last century, the Dominican Republic relied on the export of sugar, coffee, cacao and tobacco...

...Political, ideological and personal differences all explain this rivalry...

...August, 1978: PRD candidate Silvestre Antonio Guzman, a conservative landowner, is elected...

...Recently, the Church has sought to mediate solutions to social conflict, labor disputes, government-business tensions and electoral impasses...

...Economic neither free, growth as measured by the standard GDP indices nor fair nor have, in the past, done little to produce conditions competitive...