CHILE The Right to Coup

...Pinochet's destruction of Allende's social welfare legislation forced the poor majority to build their own system of self-help community groups...

...For example, no amendment weakening presidential powers can be introduced unless the sitting president endorses such changes...

...Pinochet's Options When Pinochet pledges that he will "comply with the constitution," he's really promising to maintain his dictatorship...

...In the coming months this gap may become more apparent as the Left tries to regain some ground...

...Most in the military probably recognize that they need to put some distance between the dictator and themselves...

...Even if we discard some part of that vote as fraudulent, the product of a closed campaign or a still fearful electorate, it is significant that a considerable portion of Chilean voters would seek to project Pinochet's military rule into the future.* The question goes beyond Pinochet himself to whether or not the Chilean military will establish an alliance with a civilian party...

...Such an early standoff might reflect a natural testing of the waters on both sides...

...Pinochet conceded defeat in a speech broadcast nationwide the night of October 6. His interior minister, Sergio Fernindez, had just stated that the government stood by "its unbreakable decision to comply with the constitution and the law...

...The constitution itself makes the amendment process virtually impossible...

...Pinochet has lost prestige, but he has not yet lost power...

...Yet its propaganda machine in the media and the schools has evidently failed to destroy Chileans' political identities...

...Questions for the Opposition The opposition did not succeed in disarming Pinochet, but it certainly bruised his ego...

...And, even then, amendments require large majorities to pass, and proposed changes in most controversial issues must be approved by two successive congresses...

...According to the constitution, mayors are either directly appointed by the president or by "regional development councils," which are made up of presidentially-appointed intendants, governors and representatives of each branch of the armed forces and the carabineros (national police...

...One will seek to dismantle Pinochet's repressive political structure while maintaining his economic framework and the controls on labor...

...The plebiscite could also provide the armed forces, and the army in particular, with the strength to displace Pinochet from his throne...

...People rushed out en masse, jumping, dancing, embracing and crying...

...We were beaten but not conquered," Pinochet declared...

...even killing his rivals within the army...

...Plagued with a dictator who likens himself to Christ, Chile now finds itself in an uncomfortable purgatory...

...Fifteen years of direct military rule have reasserted the military's prerogatives to name its own commanders regardless of civilian preferences...

...Thus, the armed services will maintain majority control, even though the president, who names the military chiefs, directly appoints six of the NSC's seven members...

...The real question to be debated by the Chilean opposition is whether the SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1988 5Pinochet dictatorship will disappear when the General does or outlive its master...

...Those who take comfort from such a statement have not read Chile's constitution...

...The president appoints all judges of the supreme court and appellate courts, all intendants and all governors in the provinces...

...He never intended that this power be exercised by anyone but himself, and he most certainly never intended his presidential sash to be draped over the shoulder of a centrist politician...

...A military conservative party, carrying with it the thinly veiled threat of another military intervention, could convince the centrist parties to abandon the Left and provide the center-Right with the elusive majority it has long sought...

...Will they remain loyal to Pinochet in his attempt to control a new period marked by greater political space...

...Air Force Gen...

...Amending the constitution Some criticism from Washington could help the opposition in its fight to amend the constitution...

...In neither case did Pinochet move to modify even the style, let alone the substance, of his rule...

...Still, the constitution does leave Pinochet with a way out of this uncomfortable dilemma...

...While many have argued that the plebiscite turned the opposition's attention away from the real task of dismantling pinochetismo, most would probably claim that Chile is arguably closer to that goal now than before October 5. One of the startling results of the plebiscite, at least for the government, is that 15 years of military rule has failed to destroy the basic divisions of Chilean politics which remain Right, center and Left of roughly equal proportions...

...There is also the issue of whether the fractured Socialist Party will reassert its historic alliance with the Communist Party or prolong its successful concord with the Christian Democrats...

...Finally, he could use the power given him and the NSC by the constitution to cancel elections altogether or to remove the incoming civilian administration under the pretext of internal subversion, turmoil, external threat, or, what is more likely, a perceived threat to his constitution...

...He neither sought to create his own social and political base of support among the civilians, nor to politicize the military (i.e., to turn it from merely a coercive prop into a political foundation...

...One issue has been crystal clear since late in the government of Salvador Allende: Civilian presidents cannot exercise their right to appoint military chiefs by fiat...

...For example, congress can legislate a reduction in the presidentially-proposed state budget, but it cannot raise expenditure levels, nor can it impose taxes or raise revenues at all...

...This was to be a key element in the institutionalization of Pinochet's authoritarian plan...

...puppet...

...Still, Pinochet has spent 15 years shuffling commands, displacing or * Manuel Barrera of the Center for Social Studies in Santiago reports that there was at least 4% fraud...

...A shattering of the opposition coalition would not automatically help his chances at the polls, since the constitution requires a two-candidate run-off election if no majority winner emerges...

...Congress, to be elected in late 1989, will be a timid lap dog to this president since the constitution has stripped the legislators of their most serious responsibilities...

...Remember in the history of the world there was a plebiscite in which they judged Christ and Barrabas...

...Working Class Politics Although Pinochet has failed in his attempt to eradicate the historic Left in Chile, the links between the working class and the parties of the Left have been severely disrupted...

...At least three demonstrators were killed and members of the press, both local and international, were severely beaten...

...When Jimmy Carter tried to cut off the dictatorship, he was undercut by the banks which poured some $14 billion in credits into Chile during his administration...

...The most vivid impression I came away with on a recent trip was that the "Old Left" had little presence in the poverty stricken poblaciones that radiate out of Santiago...

...United States Influence One of the more misguided comments on the plebiscite came from U.S...

...Pinochet or pinochetismo...

...This is misleading not because Barnes didn't make his opposition clear, but because Pinochet is not a pliant U.S...

...For the poor however, this is an arcane question...

...Control of the NSC is vital not because it can, along with the president, declare a variety of "states of exception," under which constitutional guarantees are suspended, but because it has the legal right to depose the government in the name of national security...

...If the direct electoral option proves untenable, he could appoint a successor and pressure the conservative coalition to accept that person as its candidate...

...NACLA's former research director Steven S. Volk teaches Latin American history at Oberlin College...

...journalists are already "spinning" this as a choice between starting afresh versus returning to the policies of the Allende government, but this misrepresents the options...

...But the reality of the situation reasserted itself soon enough...

...That leaves him with 17 months of direct "constitutional" power and, as one can imagine, a grab bag of options...

...The transition years will challenge the Left with the problem of relevance...

...Or will they abandon the General and seek a rapprochement with conservative civilians...

...Celebrations notwithstanding, come Pinochet or pinochetismo, the poor of Chile will still need their independent, beleaguered system of self-help more than ever...

...According to the 1980 constitution, having lost the vote, the General will remain in office until March 1990 when he will turn over the presidency to the winner of a national direct election to be held on December 14, 1989...

...The opposition has made its position known: The constitution must be changed...

...The plebiscite showed that Pinochet is not omnipotent, but thousands remain outside the political process...

...The United States may have put the General in, but he has grown quite independent and defiant of his original patrons...

...And since the United States is far more committed to marginalizing the Chilean Left than it is to getting rid of Pinochet, any criticisms from Washington are easily sloughed off by the General as hypocritical...

...Transition and the Constitution Workers celebrate the "No" victory The constitution of 1980, handcrafted by Pinochet and his advisers, was intended to guide the Chilean dictatorship into a period of institutionalized rule...

...Matthei has been the clearest about the need to unyoke the military from Pinochet's legacy...

...One could feel the fear melting away as ecstatic crowds clogged the city and the surrounding shantytowns...

...This is a powerful threat to hold over any president...

...He recently returned from an extended trip to Chile...

...The president to follow Pinochet may even have the power to dismiss the General's appointees...

...But the overwhelming presidential power written into the 1980 charter raises what has to be Pinochet's most serious problem...

...U.S...

...reporters who gave credit to U.S...

...But it is plausible that the military-technocratic corps which took root under him will find a home in the National Renovation Party of Sergio Onofre Jarpa...

...And since the army continues to hold the balance of power in the military, Pinochet may be able to rely on it should an internal crisis erupt...

...Pinochet quickly sent his water cannons, soldiers and plainclothes enforcers back to the streets to restore the order of the last 15 years...

...Pinochet's rule was a depoliticizing one...

...Pinochet will become Senator-for-Life...

...The significance of the document, however, lies in the fact that it grants the president a series of powers not enjoyed by any of his predecessors, and elevates the military, via the National Security Council, directly into the political sphere...

...Indirectly, the president controls the naming of six of seven members of the Constitutional Tribunal (a constitutional supreme court), the comptroller general, three of five members of the Electoral Court (which supervises all elections) and over 30% of the Senate (including his own seat...

...The debate could emerge over several questions, including the legalization of the Communist Party and whether or not the Christian Democrats (the strongest centrist party) will accept Pinochet's economic model...

...The Military Beyond Pinochet One cannot but be struck by the 43% of the vote which went to Pinochet...

...Politically, it consistently places "national security" above individual rights...

...Ambassador Harry G. Barnes for keeping Pinochet from cancelling the plebiscite...

...So weakened will the congress be, that the Constitutional Tribunal (controlled by the president) can eject any legislator just for introducing what the Tribunal considers to be an unconstitutional bill...

...The Reagan Administration undid most of Carter's measures, but since late 1984, it too has publicly expressed its displeasure with the Pinochet government, albeit mildly...

...The Left has made few links with this movement, which is dominated by women...

...On an ideological level, the national charter raises anticommunism to the status of a state religion...

...But he could take advantage of a fractious electoral campaign to reemphasize the "chaos" inherent in civilian politics...

...REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 4The president's control reaches deep down to the local level...

...According to some constitutional authorities, Pinochet can offer himself as a candidate in the December 1989 elections...

...Now that Pinochet has lost the plebiscite, what is regarded as the "respectable opposition" by U.S...

...In 1989, as in 1973, the main question on an electoral level is whether a center-Left coalition will prove stronger than one of the center-Right...

...Article 8, for example, outlaws "class conflict" and those who believe in it, particularly the Communist Party (which has historically represented 10-20% of the Chilean electorate...

...Underlying these issues, of course, are differences over politicaleconomic models which are likely to divide the opposition into at least two broad camps...

...We cannot be certain how the General would fare in a free and open election-the plebiscite campaign alloted 15 minutes of TV air time to the opposition for every 23 hours and 45 minutes to the govemment-but the fact that he won 43% of the vote is an indication that he is supported by more than those who have profited directly from his rule...

...The Pinochet dictatorship's ideological mission was to eliminate politics altogether...

...The other will attempt to replace his authoritarian models in both the political and economic spheres...

...If this happens, it will signal an important historical change for Chile...

...The long, violent storm was finally beginning to lift...

...Politicking on a national level has become the Left's principal arena of activity...

...While conservative sectors did call on the military to back their rule a number of times before 1973, the military's presence in the political world was quite subdued...

...It creates the appearance of decentralization, where demands placed on the state would be passed down to, and generally ignored by, local authorities, while power is actually centralized at the top via a network of personally beholden mayors, intendants, and governors...

...At the height of the Pinochet years, the Left was confronted with the immediate problem of physical survival...

...The political role of the nation's armed forces is to be embodied in the powerful National Security Council (NSC), composed of the president, the presidents of the Senate and the Supreme Court, and the chiefs of the three service branches and the carabineros...

...But whether the opposition can negotiate any alterations in the charter before a new congress is elected will depend on the military, particularly the army...

...Pinochet has drawn a line in the sand: No amendments to the constitution will be allowed...

...officials-the centrist parties-may have more pull in Congress and the State Department in their campaign to weaken the dictatorship's hold over the country's political life...