JAMAICA A Comeback Washington Wont't Like
Levi, Darrell
When Jamaica's elections are held in the coming months, Michael Manley, the controversial and outspoken former prime minister, will probably be elected over incumbent Edward Seaga, the Reagan...
...He last visited Jamaica in December...
...The only exception was the garment assembly export business, which, due to low wages, poor working conditions and intense exploitation of female workers, could compete with foreign capital...
...But Basil Buck, financial editor of the Daily Gleaner, the conservative newspaper that helped destabilize Manley's government in the 1970s, has voiced alarm at Jamaica's increasing trade deficit and criticized the government since "no policy moves have been taken to moderate imports...
...But now the Jamaican showcase of the 1980s seems destined to follow the "Puerto Rican model" and the "Brazilian miracle" into economic disaster and crushing poverty...
...Matthew Beaubrun, a Kingston physician, said in December that infant mortality, maternal mortality, and malnutrition are all increasing...
...A new PNP government would likely pursue better relations with the United States and the Jamaican private sector, restore low-profile relations with Cuba and increase attention to the management of reform...
...A PNP government would face formidable tasks...
...Seaga is like a father who is happy that his big son is doing well but is unaware that the wash belly [baby] is malnourished...
...Manley's populist, social democratic administration achieved notable social reforms and democratized politics...
...Reagan's Showcase In October 1980, after a violent election campaign in which an estimated 750 Jamaicans died, Edward Seaga and his conservative Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) replaced the centerLeft PNP government Manley led from 1972 to 1980...
...invasion of Grenada in October 1983, temporarily boosting Seaga's declining popularity and prompting him to call elections in December 1983...
...Why has Washington been unable to prevent the comeback of the one politician even the Carter Administration deemed too radical for Jamaica...
...Matthew Beaubrun, a Kingston physician, said in December that infant mortality, maternal mortality, and malnutrition are all increasing...
...In the l980s he has worked hard to be a conciliatory opposition leader, couching his criticisms in more careful tones, warning that there are no magic wands to dispel Jamaica's ills, and urging a bipartisan approach to problems such as drugs and violence...
...A Manley supporter admitted in an interview that Seaga's tough budget constraints on social services would probably not be reversed by the PNP...
...Following a sharp decline in 1985, the economy grew in 1986 and 1987, though little trickled down to the impoverished majority...
...attitudes...
...United States...
...Health services have never been worse in the 20th century," he said...
...At 63 and in good health following serious illness in 1985 and in 1987, he now declares that the PNP made "many mistakes" during the 1970s...
...Indeed, Manley himself has become more politically circumspect...
...However, opening the economy to this extent seriously damaged Jamaica's manufacturing sector...
...Recently the U.S...
...This severe reduction in the quality of life has not been confined to the poor...
...Seaga loyally supported the U.S...
...An April 1988 poll conducted by Carl Stone, respected political scientist at Jamaica's campus of the University of the West Indies, showed Manley leading Seaga 48% to 35%, with 17% undecided...
...The PNP boycotted the elections because they violated a JLP-PNP agreement not to have elections before electoral reforms were carried out and new voters' lists prepared...
...Although the resilient poor have evolved ingenious survival methods, they cannot fully protect themselves...
...But Basil Buck, financial editor of the Daily Gleaner, the conservative newspaper that helped destabilize Manley's government in the 1970s, has voiced alarm at Jamaica's increasing trade deficit and criticized the government since "no policy moves have been taken to moderate imports...
...In response, Seaga cut diplomatic ties with Cuba, a move most Jamaicans disapproved of despite their deep-rooted anticommunism and generally pro-U.S...
...And migration overseas a long-term Jamaican response to poverty, violence and slim localopportunities has not diminished under Seaga...
...However, like Manley, Seaga seems to have learned some hard lessons about the conflict between Jamaican and U.S...
...And in recognition that the U.S...
...Reservations remain about his ability to manage the economy, but they are mitigated by the massive suffering induced under Seaga...
...The government and its conservative supporters in the financial and import sectors argue that the economy has turned around...
...The answer lies in the Reagan-inspired policies pursued by the man who was acceptable, Edward Seaga...
...Up to a point, Seaga benefited from the friendly administration in Washington, which did everything in its power to help restore "investor confidence" supposedly damaged by Manley's policies and the orchestrated bad press he received in Jamaica and abroad...
...Following a sharp decline in 1985, the economy grew in 1986 and 1987, though little trickled down to the impoverished majority...
...Herbert Swaby, addressing an annual prayer breakfast in January attended by 400 leading Jamaicans, including Seaga and Manley, said that "there is a rage that threatens the life of Jamaica" because "for many Jamaicans there is resentment at the long life of impoverishment, disparity, hunger and ugliness...
...The appointed Senate has little power...
...A businessman from Trelawny parish put it more bluntly: "Mr...
...Last December a JLP government minister expressed considerable frustration at the United States' failure to maintain trade conditions favorable to Jamaica, despite the JLP government's having strained the island's long-term stability in order to strictly adhere to U.S.-approved policies...
...When Jamaica's elections are held in the coming months, Michael Manley, the controversial and outspoken former prime minister, will probably be elected over incumbent Edward Seaga, the Reagan Administration's point man in the Caribbean...
...Carl Stone estimates that Manley will have only about eighteen months following his election to demonstrate that he can manage the economy and alleviate the suffering of the poor...
...economic interests...
...The government and its conservative supporters in the financial and import sectors argue that the economy has turned around...
...Health services have never been worse in the 20th century," he said...
...cut Jamaica's sugar quota to its lowest level in over a century...
...Reservations remain about his ability to manage the economy, but they are mitigated by the massive suffering induced under Manley (L) has benefitted from Seaga's (R) economic talures...
...However, in July 1986, the PNP swept 12 of 13 parishes in local elections...
...But now the Jamaican showcase of the 1980s seems destined to follow the "Puerto Rican model" and the "Brazilian miracle" into economic disaster and crushing poverty...
...The middle class, the private sector, the Gleaner and the United States will view Manley with suspicion...
...The foreign debt has swollen under Seaga (almost $4 billion), and an IMF agreement is in place, thereby restricting any incoming government's maneuverability...
...is not constant in its advocacy of the "free market," Seaga recently REPORT ON THE AMERICAS C z 0 z t: Z D I 10criticized "the specter of (U.S.] protectionism that could dash Caribbean hopes for a positive economic flow...
...A poll by the Trade Union Education Institute last December showed that Jamaican workers regard Manley as the island's leading trade unionist, despite the fact that his active unionism ended in 1972...
...Should he fail to do so, his own brand of populist social democracy might suffer an even more catastrophic defeat than in 1980.U Manley (L) has benfitted from 591'$ (R) economic failures...
...The poor will press for widespread expensive social and economic improvements...
...Last December a JLP government minister expressed considerable frustration at the United States' failure to maintain trade conditions favorable to Jamaica, despite the JLP government's having strained the island's long-term stability in order to strictly adhere to U.S.-approved policies...
...Indeed, Manley himself has become more politically circumspect...
...In response, Seaga cut diplomatic ties with Cuba, a move most Jamaicans disapproved of despite their deep-rooted anticommunism and generally pro-U.S...
...However, in July 1986, the PNP swept 12 of 13 parishes in local elections...
...MAY/JUNE 1988 II criticized "the specter of [U.S.] protectionism that could dash Caribbean hopes for a positive economic flow...
...Elections are due no later than March 1989 and might occur much earlier...
...The University itself is technically broke with faculty salaries being paid by overdrafts guaranteed by the government...
...Reagan's Showcase In October 1980, after a violent election campaign in which an estimated 750 Jamaicans died, Edward Seaga and his conservative Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) replaced the center- Left PNP government Manley led from 1972 to 1980...
...Manley's Return All of this helps explain Manley's resurgence...
...A Manley supporter admitted in an interview that Seaga's tough budget constraints on social services would probably not be reversed by the PNP...
...However, opening the economy to this extent seriously damaged Jamaica's manufacturing sector...
...United States...
...Attendance at Jamaica's campus of the University of the West Indies declined between 1984 and 1987, restricting one path of social mobility...
...The only exception was the gannent assembly export business, which, due to low wages, poor working conditions and intense exploitation of female workers, could compete with foreign capital...
...The small middle class clings insecurely to its comforts through credit, mortgaged homes, and constant hustling after dollars...
...Stone sees nothing likely to alter the pro-Manley trend and predicts that Manley's Peoples' National Party (PNP) will return to power with 57% or 58% of the vote...
...The result was an embarrassing "one party democracy," with the JLP holding all 60 seats in the House of Representatives of an increasingly irrelevant parliament...
...1987...
...Trade problems are chronic and difficult to resolve without a favorable international climate...
...A PNP government would face formidable tasks...
...cut Jamaica's sugar quota to its lowest level in over a century...
...The poor will press for widespread expensive social and economic improvements...
...Up to a point, Seaga benefited from the friendly administration in Washington, which did everything in its power to help restore "investor confidence" supposedly damaged by Manley's policies and the orchestrated bad press he received in Jamaica and abroad...
...A new PNP government would likely pursue better relations with the United States and the Jamaican private sector, restore low-profile relations with Cuba and increase attention to the management of reform...
...Herbert Swaby, addressing an annual prayer breakfast in January attended by 400 leading Jamaicans, including Seaga and Manley, said that "there is a rage that threatens the life of Jamaica" because "for many Jamaicans there is resentment at the long life of impoverishment, disparity, hunger and ugliness...
...is not constant in its advocacy of the "free market," Seaga recently A long life of Impoverishment...
...invasion of Grenada in October 1983, temporarily boosting Seaga's declining popularity and prompting him to call elections in December 1983...
...Days after Seaga's victory, he and newly elected Ronald Reagan launched an effort to create a free market "Caribbean showcase" in Jamaica...
...Recently the U.S...
...Seaga is like a father who is happy that his big son is doing well but is unaware that the wash belly [baby] is malnourished...
...Most social and political reforms have been on hold ever since...
...Seaga loyally supported the U.S...
...The PNP boycotted the elections because they violated a JLP-PNP agreement not to have elections before electoral reforms were carried out and new voters' lists prepared...
...Trade problems are chronic and difficult to resolve without a favorable international climate...
...A poll by the Trade Union Education Institute last December showed that Jamaican workers regard Manley as the island's leading trade unionist, despite the fact that his active unionism ended in 1972...
...The foreign debt has swollen under Seaga (almost $4 billion), and an IMF agreement is in place, thereby restricting any incoming government's maneuverability...
...Exports have increased, but not as much as imports, requiring ever more loans to finance the trade gap and to fill the shelves for upper and middle class consumers...
...attitudes...
...The appointed Senate has little power...
...But the PNP regime foundered on a declining economy (aggravated by harsh IMF prescriptions), hysterical anticommunism, violent opposition from the JLP, the PNP's own internal feuding, and active destabilization by the Darrell Levi, an Associate Professor of History at Florida State University, is writing a biography of Michael Manley...
...This severe reduction in the quality of life has not been confined to the poor...
...In the 1980s he has worked hard to be a conciliatory opposition leader, couching his criticisms in more careful tones, warning that there are no magic wands to dispel Jamaica's ills, and urging a bipartisan approach to problems such as drugs and violence...
...Attendance at Jamaica's campus of the University of the West Indies declined between 1984 and 1987, restricting one path of social mobility...
...Carl Stone estimates that Manley will have only about eighteen months following his election to demonstrate that he can manage the economy and alleviate the suffering of the poor...
...Seaga was the first foreign head of state received by President Reagan and became the chief Caribbean spokesperson for Reagan's policies there...
...A long life of impoverishment...
...He last visited Jamaica in December, 1987...
...Professor Stone, an independent who criticized Manley and learned toward the JLP in 1980 has said: "I've never seen a period in which people are talking more about being underpaid, not being able to live on their wages The percentage of national income earned by labor has dropped markedly under Seaga...
...The Wash Belly is Malnourished In line with the U.S./IMF stabilization strategy, Seaga cut government budget deficits and social services, and drastically devalued the Jamaican dollar to encourage exports and limit some imports (excluding luxuries crucial to middle class political support...
...Professor Stone, an independent who criticized Manley and learned toward the JLP in 1980 has said: "I've never seen a period in which people are talking more about being underpaid, not being able to live on their wages . . . " The percentage of national income earned by labor has dropped markedly under Seaga...
...Exports have increased, but not as much as imports, requiring ever more loans to finance the trade gap and to fill the shelves for upper and middle class consumers...
...10 REPORT ON THE AMERICAS JAMAICA: A COMEBACK WASHINGTON WON'T LIKE BY DARRELL LEVI When Jamaica's elections are held in the coming months, Michael Manley, the controversial and outspoken former prime minister, will probably be elected over incumbent Edward Seaga, the Reagan Administration's point man in the Caribbean...
...The answer lies in the Reagan-inspired policies pursued by the man who was acceptable, Edward Seaga...
...The result was an embarrassing 'one party democracy," with the JLP holding all 60 seats in the House of Representatives of an increasingly irrelevant parliament...
...A businessman from Trelawny parish put it more bluntly: "Mr...
...Stone sees nothing likely to alter the pro-Manley trend and predicts that Manley's Peoples' National Party (PNP) will return to power with 57% or 58% of the vote...
...In the countryside, food grown by Jamaica's rugged, conservative peas- ants spoils because of neglected mountain roads...
...And there are elements in the PNP who do not share Manley's deep commitment to social justice...
...And in recognition that the U.S...
...An April 1988 poll conducted by Carl Stone, respected political scientist at Jamaica's campus of the University of the West Indies, showed Manley leading Seaga 48% to 35%, with 17% undecided...
...economic interests...
...Should he fail to do so, his own brand of populist social democracy might suffer an even more catastrophic defeat than in 1980...
...And migration overseas-a long-term Jamaican response to poverty, violence and slim local opportunities-has not diminished under Seaga...
...Elections are due no later than March 1989 and might occur much earlier...
...At 63 and in good health following serious illness in 1985 and in 1987, he now declares that the PNP made "many mistakes" during the 1970s...
...Seaga was the first foreign head of state received by President Reagan and became the chief Caribbean spokesperson for Reagan's poli- cies there...
...However, like Manley, Seaga seems to have learned some hard lessons about the conflict between Jamaican and U.S...
...The middle class, the private sector, the Gleaner and the United States will view Manley with suspicion...
...Most social and political reforms have been on hold ever since...
...But the PNP regime foundered on a declining economy (aggravated by harsh !MF prescriptions), hysterical anticommunism, violent opposition from the JLP, the PNP's own internal feuding, and active destabilization by the Darrell Levi, an Associate Professor of History at Florida State University, is writing a biography of Michael Manley...
...Rev...
...Manley's Return All of this helps explain Manley's resurgence...
...In the countryside, food grown by Jamaica's rugged, conservative peasants spoils because of neglected mountain roads...
...Manley's populist, social democratic administration achieved notable social reforms and democratized politics...
...The Wash Belly is Malnourished In line with the U.S./IMF stabilization strategy, Seaga cut government budget deficits and social services, and drastically devalued the Jamaican dollar to encourage exports and limit some imports (excluding luxuries crucial to middle class political support...
...The University itself is technically broke with faculty salaries being paid by overdrafts guaranteed by the government...
...The small middle class clings insecurely to its comforts through credit, mortgaged homes, and con- stant hustling alter dollars...
...Manley enjoys a large reservoir of good will based not so much on his heralded "charisma" or "messianic appeal" as on his reputation as a person who really cares for Jamaica's workers and the poor...
...And there are elements in the PNP who do not share Manley's deep commitment to social justice...
...Manley enjoys a large reser- voir of good will based not so much on his heralded "charisma" or "messianic appeal" as on his reputation as a person who really cares for Jamaica's workers and the poor...
...Why has Washington been unable: to prevent the comeback of the one politician even the Carter Administration deemed too radical for Jamaica...
...Days after Seaga's victory, he and newly elected Ronald Reagan launched an effort to create a free market "Caribbean showcase" in Jamaica...
...Although the resilient poor have evolved ingenious survival methods, they cannot fully protect themselves...
Vol. 22 • May 1988 • No. 3
