The Second Circle: The Armed Forces
WITHIN THE SPACE THAT HE IS ALLOWED by the United States, Duarte must also confront a second line of veto power-the armed forces. At the most obvious level, this reflects the traditional...
...With a decline in the level of conflict, the civilian authorities would be in a better position to exercise control over the armed forces...
...At least 25% of all Army casualties are now inflicted by mines...
...One of the clearest indicators is the growing proportion of the budget devoted to military spending...
...The second was the kidnapping of Ines Duarte, the president's daughter, in September 1985...
...Accused in the past of keeping a nine-to-five timetable and sticking too closely to the barracks, the Army began to send small patrols into the different combat zones at all times to harass guerrilla forces and keep them constantly on the move...
...It even offers the Army's own funeral service...
...Perhaps the best illustration was the creation of the Vice-Ministry of Public Security in June 1984, under the umbrella of the Defense Ministry...
...At this point, challenging the rules of the game laid down by Washington and the military could mean Duarte's removal from office, and consequently the end of any hope he may have of ever enacting his program...
...This in turn would mean enhanced respect for human rights, which, coupled with a strengthening of the judicial system and greater tolerance for political pluralism, would open the way for broader mass participation, stronger democratic institutions and a process of national reconciliation to heal the scars left by five years of war...
...and since the FMLN is considered a terrorist organization, the "destabilizers" are deemed accomplices of terrorism...
...One clear illustration of the armed forces' new privileges is the package of economic benefits to which they are entitled...
...The first was military operations to "clean up" key areas of conflict, either by driving out rebel forces or by physically eliminating them...
...Even in the cases where soldiers have been discharged and brought to trial, the majority have been found not guilty...
...dismantling the Treasury Police intelligence unit, reputedly the main center for death squad information and operations...
...The final stage would be the resetdement of civilian inhabitants who had abandoned the conflict areas...
...The high command justifies these raids on counterinsurgency grounds, and is less concerned than it once was to conceal them...
...A certain confusion has arisen over how to measure Army performance: while it has undeniably shown both qualitative and quantitative improvements in comparison with its own earlier standards, and perhaps even an enhanced capacity vis-a-vis the specific kind of war it is called upon to fight, this is not necessarily evidence that it is any closer to winning the war...
...HE MUCH-HERALDED NEW PROCEDURES for the detention and treatment of prisoners...
...But it also reflected the changes in the war at home...
...military aid are further proof of the same point...
...Under the new strategy, the war will be carried to all parts of the country, and FMLN actions will not be restricted to purely military objectives...
...disappearances continue...
...Col...
...At the most obvious level, this reflects the traditional dominance of the military in Salvadorean society...
...Thus, the Air Force code of conduct has not prevented a continued campaign of indiscriminate aerial bombing, which has now been publicly condemned by Archbishop Rivera y Damas...
...policy goals, both now and in the future...
...the lightning attack on the Armed Forces Military Training Center (CEMFA) in La Uni6n in October 1985 was another...
...And once the principle is accepted of the military acting as its own watchdog, there is no reason to suppose that it will limit its veto power to the question of human rights...
...Have these improvements in the size and quality of the armed forces altered their relative strength vis-a-vis the FMLN...
...HE KIDNAPPING EPISODE ILLUSTRATES perfectly the fragile balance of power between the president and the armed forces, and the straitjacket that restrains Duarte...
...on the other, the government has been unable to restore a climate of confidence in the private sector...
...They include the issuing of directives to the Air Force on rules of conduct for aerial bombing...
...The increasing levels of U.S...
...For example, most of the dozen National University teachers and students threatened by the Secret Anti-Communist Army (ESA) in July 1985 had Treasury Police case files on charges very similar to those mentioned by the ESA...
...This trend is getting worse rather than better...
...However, the death of Monterrosa and the eastern front commanders on October 19, just four days after La Palma, changed the military picture...
...The assault on the Cerr6n Grande dam in July 1984 was one example...
...which made some impact in the early months of the Duarte Administration, are no longer much in evidence...
...Duarte chose his moment shrewdly...
...One salient fact that emerges from these figures is that Duarte himself, irrespective of his intentions, has had almost no say in setting his government's priorities...
...On one hand, there has been no improvement in the living standards of salaried workers...
...A willingness to discuss power-sharing would have been equivalent to signing away his own current power...
...T HE NEW STRATEGY HAS BROUGHT COR- responding shifts in how the Army operates in the field...
...Faced with the choice of shaping his economic policy REPORT ON THE AMERICAS 26to generate new employment or increase private sector profit margins, Duarte has opted for the latter, hoping that the business community will overcome the distrust and uncertainty which the worsening conflict has bred...
...After overrunning targets as important as the barracks at El Parafso and the Cuscatlin bridge, what remained...
...they are swift, requiring few soldiers and few material resources...
...indeed, the Army felt compelled to announce new tactical countermeasures in October 1985...
...Since then, the high command has withstood two serious tests...
...In the face of this failure, and with the March 1984 presidential elections approaching, the armed forces began to overhaul their entire strategy...
...Highranking military personnel associated with the U.S...
...The two clearest examples were the Zona Rosa attack in June 1985, in which four U.S...
...significant upgrading of military intelligence and communications, in order to detect large guerrilla concentrations and troop movements, and to improve coordination between aerial and ground operations...
...Army ground troops, meanwhile, have been toughened by five years experience of counterinsurgency warfare, and combat morale is high among the specialized elite battalions...
...The high levels of both domestic and U.S...
...The Christian Democrats themselves have acknowledged the loss of effective control in many rural areas by withdrawing mayors from the municipalities in four departments-Usulutin, San Miguel, Cabafias and Chalatenango-and maintaining a local government presence only in the departmental capitals...
...Duarte finds himself caught in a perfect Catch-22...
...While the president's image was badly tarnished by the episode, the armed forces emerged from it with a greatly improved image of political maturity...
...Dual power is a fact of life, even if only in small parts of the country...
...Duarte's first 18 months as president have indicated clearly that the central political priority of his government is to resolve the problem of the war by military means...
...Among the most visible results are better ground-to-ground, ground-to-air and air-to-ground communications, which have led to improved coordination of joint Army-Air Force operations, more effective air support for ground troops, and a smoother execution of simultaneous military operations in more than one area...
...health and education were down to 24.8...
...First, they have managed to overcome the command and control problems that were starkly exposed by the rebellion of Lt...
...Reports of prisoners being abducted by "heavily armed men in civilian clothes" are on the rise...
...The draft budget for 1986 goes still further, with defense eating up 28.5% and health and education just 22.3...
...surveillance flights and aerial bombing made it impossible for the FMLN to continue thinking in terms of supplying or deploying large troop units...
...And the outcome of the kidnapping indicated that the Army's new central command structures were firmly in place...
...The FMLN has expanded its attacks on the defense perimeters of major cities and maintained an impressive degree of control over the country's main highways...
...For all these reasons, the FMLN decided on a war of attrition on its own terms, whose long-term goal would be to "break the will of the Reagan Administration to continue supplying and supporting the Salvadorean Army...
...But more important, it reflects the essential nature of U.S...
...Private enterprise would still hold pride of place, but it would no longer be able to impose its economic logic wholesale on the state...
...Only by completely defeating the enemies of the fatherland can we recover peace and prosperity...
...In a series of recent speeches, as well as in the incessant propaganda of the new Ministry of Culture and Communications, the government has instead demanded unity against the threat of "communist terrorism," and called upon all sectors to play their part in the total war against the FMLN...
...The armed forces know that they are the primary guarantor of U.S...
...advisers spoke of "low intensity warfare...
...This does not mean that the FMLN has altogether abandoned its more sensational attacks...
...The powers of Duarte and his civilian government to ensure enforcement are strictly limited...
...Yet he has little prospect of achieving any real progress on either human rights or peace talks...
...During the Inds Duarte kidnapping negotiations, the FMLN requested the release of nine individuals who had disappeared since June 1984, but the government was unable to provide any information on their whereabouts...
...Only the largest of the enemy's fixed positions: other key garrisons, strategic installations such as dams and strikes at the major cities...
...To make even minimal progress in either area, the only course open to Duarte is to appeal to the ultimate authority of the United States to overrule the veto of the armed forces...
...The armed forces' mobility today is greater than ever...
...And that means accepting the veto power of the military...
...The new Army patrols, U.S...
...The first was the death of the Army's top field commander, Lt...
...It is assumed that these improvements are due to more effective civilian control of the military, and to important changes in the mentality and professionalism of the armed forces...
...Whatever internal frictions the event may have caused, the high command maintained effective discipline, and dealt with the outside world very pragmatically...
...Finally, it attempted to depopulate the areas in which the FMLN operates and to destroy the infrastructure of the guerrillas' war economy...
...The dispersal of FMLN forces has also allowed the rebels to broaden their theater of operations considerably and carry the war to previously untouched areas...
...The FMLN also saw that the United States was digging in for a major commitment, and concluded that it faced what Villalobos called "an enemy with an inexhaustible source of material resources...
...In a major speech in mid1984, Defense Minister Gen...
...to make matters worse, it is also unable to explain disappearances during its own term of office...
...The In6s Duarte kidnapping again highlighted the military's ability to block negotiations...
...this was to be followed by the establishment of Civilian Defense units to secure each area and by "military civic action" projects aimed at "reconstruction and development...
...Likewise, to press on to a "final offensive," with the real prospect of the disintegration of government forces and a rebel military victory, would produce the same result...
...increased troop strength, to sustain the higher level of patrols...
...The support that Duarte could expect for talks diminished further when the private sector publicly declared its hostility...
...IN SEPTEMBER 1983, THE FMLN LAUNCHED a military offensive that culminated in the seizure and destruction of the 4th Infantry Brigade barracks at El Paraiso in Chalatenango, and the dynamiting of the Cuscatlln Bridge over the Rio Lempa, which cut the main artery connecting the eastern and western halves of the country...
...New tactics first became evident in early 1984...
...The military has made a policy decision to implement a sweeping plan of psychological warfare with clearly defined sectors of the population, aiming different kinds of programs at different target groups...
...From the Christian Democrats' point of view, any advance by the FMLN is defined as a security threat...
...Political and economic nerve centers will both be considered legitimate targets...
...Recent events-most dramatically the Inds Duarte kidnapping case-sharply underline the degree to which military power has grown at Duarte's expense...
...The pace of the economic crisis, far from slowing down, has actually quickened...
...The war has strengthened the military apparatus vis,-vis the civilian institutions of government, and has eroded what little space Duarte had when he took office...
...The rebels faced what their key strategist, People's Revolutionary Army (ERP) Commander Joaquin Villalobos, called "a war of immediate definition," in which the existing rhythm of the war would rapidly lead to a final showdown...
...The buildup conducted by the Air Force has not simply been a haphazard increase in firepower: each new aircraft in the inventory is designed to play a precise tactical role, whether as gunship, spotter plane or support craft for airborne troop assaults...
...today, 12 out of 14 departments are war zones, with new outbreaks of fighting in the westernmost department of Santa Ana and two areas near the capital: La Paz and the northern part of La Libertad...
...The pace of the war might appear to have slackened, if it is measured by the lower incidence of major military actions...
...Where any political dissent, however legitimate, is seen as a potential threat to state security, human rights suffer accordingly...
...In contrast to the earlier "cleanup" operations, aimed at specific FMLN strongholds, the new goal was to wear down the guerrillas' overall strength...
...B Y THE END OF 1983, THE FMLN HAD ALSO appreciated the need for far-reaching shifts in strategy...
...It would be wrong to see the PDC as an impotent bystander in this original triangle of power...
...By the following year, the defense figure had climbed to 27.3...
...At the local level, for example, the state of war means that the powers of the military commander override those of the civilian authorities...
...Before Duane's election, U.S...
...The death JANUARYIMARCH 1986 29 I I Imm squads, far from being dismantled, have begun to reappear, and apparently still rely on their old sources of intelligence...
...The point, however, is not whether Duarte agreed to the conditions: it is who set them in the first place...
...Both operations were chosen to demonstrate the FMLN's ability to strike at major Army strongholds, and both showed the insurgents' new ability to concentrate large numbers of troops in a matter of hours and disperse them again with equal speed...
...Some of the major changes within the armed forces-notably the diplomatic exile of officers with alleged ties to paramilitary operations-in fact took place before Duarte's election...
...To run to Washington too often would soon exhaust his political capital with the Reagan Administration...
...The rebels have demonstrated a striking ability to respond to government offensives in a way that plays to their own strengths...
...San Salvador itself has also witnessed dramatic actions that border dangerously on urban terrorism, though they have brought the FMLN considerable political benefits inside the country...
...Recent public sector wage increases were also extended to the armed forces, which had complete discretion to decide how the extra income would be spent internally...
...But Duarte is well aware that he can only resort to this in an unusual crisis, such as the kidnapping of his daughter...
...The public sector has to shoulder more and more of the economic burden in order to stave off an uncontrollable political crisis...
...The military's veto power over human rights issues Economic sabotage: "A strategic weapon"Duarte is most blatantly displayed in its ability to block any prosecution of military personnel...
...For all the important changes in the conduct of the war, it remains in a state of dynamic equilibrium...
...The new strategy has three main elements: one strictly military, one economic and one political...
...strategy in El Salvador, which is counterinsurgency warfare...
...It means gearing the economy to the war...
...It is a priority that Duarte himself did not set, and which he has very little power to alter--even assuming that he wanted to...
...In 1985 alone, rebel forces carried out 11 transport stoppages, restricting traffic to the eastern half of the country on at least 77 days of the year and costing the economy a full $58 million...
...They have abandoned their old talk of occupying the center between two extremes...
...Known as the "National Plan," this strategy had embraced four phases...
...neither is able to establish a decisive margin of superiority that would break the deadlock...
...instructions to the security forces on arrest procedures, including notification of the suspect's family...
...In most wars of attrition, the outcome is likely to be determined by which side can obtain unlimited material supplies...
...They also offer sobering evidence that the dynamic of the war is forcing the Christian Democrats to abandon the more positive aspects of their program and fall increasingly in step with the military line...
...Embassy in San Salvador, "Such a war is less a fight for territory than for people...
...By the early months of 1984, the rebels also had to take into account the Army's improved tactics and performance, which were evident in the security preparations for the two rounds of presidential elections that March and May...
...Duarte's own role in this strategy is twofold: he opens the door politically for the military to obtain the aid it needs from the United States, and plays the main managerial role in the counterinsurgency project...
...Similarly, both are likely to see any steps toward negotiations as a dangerous threat to the war effort...
...Railroad transportation has been virtually paralyzed, and the electricity supply network seriously weakened...
...Such tolerance as there has been is eroding, making it harder and harder for traditionally marginalized groups to organize or participate Mines cause a quarter of Army casualties in the political process...
...Hopes of a recovery in 1985 have given way to a bleak prognosis for 1986...
...The dynamic of the war is ruining Duarte's hopes of carrying out the more positive aspects of the Christian Democratic program...
...For these tactics to succeed, the armed forces had to improve their capability in at least four key areas: -substantially improved troop mobility, especially in the air, in order to strike at the FMLN's deepest rearguard areas and neutralize rebel control of transportation routes in the east of the country...
...Not surprisingly, Duarte had no objection to these conditions...
...NOWHERE HAS THIS RULE BEEN BETTER illustrated than over the burning questions of human rights and dialogue...
...The revamping of command and control structures, then, appears to have given the Army greater operational coherence, as well as a new ability to act swiftly and decisively...
...Marines and nine civilians died, and the kidnapping of the president's daughter in September...
...increased aerial firepower, both to destroy FMLN ground facilities and to fly support missions for JANUARY/MARCH 1996 23Bombed out, Tenancingo helicopter-borne assault troops...
...During fiscal years 1985 and 1986 it has remained in excess of $140 million annually-and that does not count the Reagan Administration's repeated requests for supplemental amounts (see table...
...The $27 million requested for El Salvador in fiscal year 1986 under the new heading of "anti-terrorist" aid will not only increase the gross amounts available, but will also open up new channels for security assistance...
...and an overall strengthening of the judicial system, including the establishment of a number of commissions to investigate notorious murders linked to the death squads or the military...
...T HE BIG QUESTIONS, HOWEVER, REMAIN unanswered...
...The kidnapping again underlined that once overall political guidelines have been laid down by the United States-in this case, firm Embassy support for the "democratic process" to quell any rumblings from the barracks against the principle of negotiating with the FMLN-the armed forces exercise effective veto power over subsequent key decisions...
...In a nutshell, the military goal is to steadily weaken the FMLN, not by direct military attacks on its troops, but more by cutting off rebel supply lines--"logistical anoxia"-and by removing civilian sympathizers from rebel zones of control...
...The FMLN's very success on the battlefield confronted the rebels with an extraordinary dilemma...
...His own program of populist and reformist measures necessarily sinks lower and lower on his agenda...
...Reliant as he is on the backing of the United States, he is obliged to accept the war as the main imperative of his government...
...Needless to say, his influence is even more restricted when it comes to the conduct of the war on the battlefield...
...The armed forces have grown by more than 10% to their present strength of 52,000...
...The Army managed a smooth handover of command of the eastern front to Col...
...the armed forces have the last word on the subject, and that includes the power to veto or violate the new measures, or simply ignore them...
...DIALOGUE WITH THE FMLN IS ANOTHER area in which the armed forces have demonstrated their veto power...
...The Duarte government is unable to account for the 4,000 or more disappearances and 50,000 killings under previous regimes...
...In part, this was due to external factors-the invasion of Grenada, fears of a repeat operation in Nicaragua and the mounting certainty of a Reagan reelection...
...The war has also reached the southern section of La Uni6n, the only part of eastern El Salvador previously free of fighting...
...counterinsurgency project...
...and it has given substantial importance to propaganda...
...Duarte has made it clear that he intends to take no such risk...
...These guerrilla actions gave rise to serious doubts about the effectiveness of the counterinsurgency strategy that the armed forces had initiated in June 1983...
...Under this pact, the monitoring of military abuses will be an internal matter, and will refer only to future cases...
...While this figure is certainly inflated, even the figure which the military acknowledges-4,123 dead and wounded-is strikingly high...
...Of late, the principal north-south arteries in western El Salvador have also been affected-from Sonsonate to Santa Ana, and north from Santa Ana to the Guatemalan border...
...The Army proved incapable of achieving even the first phase...
...Duarte's expectations in the political sphere were more clear-cut...
...The new small units are also better equipped to conduct political work among the civilian population...
...No matter how one analyzes the lessons of the kidnapping, the inescapable conclusion is that Duarte could not have negotiated his daughter's release without the acquiescence of the military, and the fact that he did so placed him at a political disadvantage...
...Fuzzy though Duarte's economic program may remain, his broad goal was economic recovery, which he hoped would pull the country out of its acute crisis and thereby offer some improvements in living standards for the mass of the population...
...From the rebels' point of view, the main change in strategy since early 1984 has been to reduce the number of large, spectacular operations...
...Domingo Monterrosa, together with other senior eastern front officers, in a helicopter crash caused by FMLN sabotage in October 1984...
...The standard argument in Duarte's defense is that the judicial system is so weak...
...This is "yoga war," in which all vital signs are reduced to a minimum, but each is calculated for maximum impact...
...But the cost has not been borne equally across the board...
...Its goal was to exhaust the FMLN and prevent it from massing in the numbers required for offensives such as those of 1982 and 1983...
...D UARTE'S ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE HIS political power throughout the country, and to work toward a greater democratic opening, is also undermined by the intensification of the war...
...New equipment allows for major advances in troop deployment and new airborne combat units are making effective use of this capacity, striking deep into FMLN rearguard areas...
...Bringing all the security forces under military jurisdiction weakened the civilian ministries that had previously been responsible, and reinforced military control over civil society...
...It now has 61 choppers, counting both gunships and troop transports...
...the military's condition for agreeing to even so limited a probe is that the "excesses of the past" will be quietly swept under the rug...
...The need to devote more and more resources to an apparently endless war has forced the Christian Democrats to demand greater sacrifices from everyone...
...THE REFORMIST PROJECT THAT BEGAN IN 1980, and whose high point was reached with Duarte's election in 1984, grew out of three factors: U.S...
...While it was certainly weak in relation to the Embassy and the military, it did have some room for maneuver in 1980...
...The armed forces have dealt with many of the problems that beset them before 1984...
...The Army occupies a doubly privileged position: it is in charge of the tactical conduct of the war, and it is identified by the Reagan Administration as the principal ally in achieving the overriding goal of U.S...
...Expanded troop strength, and above all the growth of the officer corps (which has more than doubled in size since 1979) have greatly enhanced the military's political influence and bargaining power...
...spending on the war were fixed before his election...
...More than a year after the October 1984 talks at La Palma, some of the reasons for the stagnation of the peace process have become clearer...
...Miguel Antonio M6ndez, a transition that did not significantly disrupt military operations...
...aircraft had already started flying Honduras-based reconnaissance missions to detect guerrilla forces...
...any political behavior that overlaps with the FMLN-FDR's position-among the labor unions, for example-is seen as destabilizing the government...
...The FMLN has stepped up the number of ambushes of government forces and relied increasingly on minefields, to make Army incursions into FMLN strongholds as costly as possible...
...During Duarte's first 18 months in power, the insurgents claim to have inflicted 8,376 casualties on the armed forces...
...invasion...
...Aerial bombing of civilian population centers in rebel-held areas has also intensified during the last 18 months...
...This, Duarte believed, would not only give the Christian Democrats a firmer grip on power, but would bring about some real changes for the better in Salvadorean society...
...In its rural strongholds, the FMLN has installed local power structures, and the government is unable to exercise authority...
...The intensification of the In the jails, torture remains commonplace war, however, has altered the original balance of power...
...Is the governJANUARY/MARCH 1986 25Duarte ment justified in declaring that the rebels have resorted to "desperate measures"--and above all a "return to urban terrorism''--in the face of their military setbacks in the countryside...
...From now on, the rebels would concentrate on frustrating all Washington's plans, whether military, political or economic...
...The FMLN's war of attrition has meant the dispersal of their forces into smaller units...
...The armed forces, meanwhile, have left little doubt about their own sense of priorities...
...In the end, talks on In6s Duarte's release and the prisoner exchange went ahead despite the military's objections, but only after Duarte had appealed to the ultimate veto power of the United States...
...Both sides appear capable of responding to the other's improvements...
...A military victory over the FMLN has been the Duarte government's priority from the outset, and that priority has become increasingly explicit...
...Current military strategy and tactics were set in motion before Duarte's election, even if the The high command, loyal to Duarte-for now shift away from the old "National Plan" concept toward the new "War of Attrition" approach has only become apparent during his term of office...
...The Salvadorean economy, of course, would remain firmly within the capitalist orbit, but Duarte's capitalism would be of the modern and moderate variety...
...Within that framework, Duarte has some limited room for maneuver, which essentially derives from being Washington's man, the chosen political manager of the U.S...
...And on the political level, the aim is to build popular support for the government-or at least ensure the neutrality of the masses-to rule out the risk of popular insurrection and widespread unrest...
...At the same time, the Army tried to cut off all guerrilla supply lines, not only of armaments, but, more crucially, supplies of food and medicines...
...This jumped from $81.3 million in 1983 to $196.5 million in 1984 in anticipation of a Duarte election victory...
...It also reserved the right to veto specific agenda items, and ruled several major topics off limits...
...Nor is it the case that Duarte sees the war only as a necessary interim measure, while he works hard toward a political settlement...
...Obliged to choose between Duarte and his unconstitutional removal, Washington indicated that it was not yet prepared to tolerate a coup d'etat...
...T HE ABSENCE OF MAJOR FMLN OFFENsives or large-scale pitched battles has led to some premature optimism about the Army's success...
...However, since it does not have the necessary economic resources, the easy way out is always to turn to the United States for more aid, which only deepens Duarte's dependence on Washington...
...Eighteen months of this new strategy have produced good results...
...The formal power at his disposal--the whole executive branch and a majority in the National Assembly-counts for little in the context of a war that makes the Army so indispensable...
...But he has been unable to show any results in increased employment...
...HE CONTINUING WAR REPRESENTS A fatal trap for the Christian Democrats and for Duarte's own power...
...it has come to see humanitarian aid and military-civic action as essential elements of counterinsurgency warfare...
...geopolitical interests, the institutional concerns of the Salvadorean armed forces, and the interests of the Christian Democratic Party...
...The armed forces have also been bolstered politically by the war...
...The evidence cited usually includes a decline in the number of indiscriminate killings of civilians, dismantling of the death squads, improved conduct by the security forces when carrying out arrests, a diminished use of torture as a means of extracting information, and a strengthening of the judicial system...
...There is much talk these days of dramatically improved respect for human rights in El Salvador...
...Under Duarte, the military has almost tripled the size of its helicopter fleet...
...At the national level, Duarte is caught in a double bind: while their role as principal defender of the system confers greater power on the armed forces, the Duarte government is ultimately held responsible for the war dragging on-not that it has any real means of changing the situation...
...labor advisers and the president of the Salvadorean Agrarian Transformation Institute (ISTA) in January 1981, and in the massacre of 74 campesinos at Las Hojas, Sonsonate in February 1983...
...Sigifredo Ochoa, then commander of Cabafias, in January 1983...
...The government's entire effort must be related to the war...
...It is not that Duarte has abandoned the search for a political solution because the insurgents refuse to lay down their weapons and join the process of "democratization...
...The new style of fighting is a relentless series of small and mediumscale operations...
...The most dramatic change, however, may be that the armed forces have now recognized-at least in theory-the political importance of mass support...
...With the exception of some limited improvements, the sad fact is that most of these steps exist only on paper...
...Duarte himself could not have been more explicit in an October 1985 speech to the Salvadorean Managers Association (AGES), telling them that, "We are at war . . . and that means that the entire nation is at war...
...the major setbacks that government troops experienced at the hands of the FMLN made it obvious that the plan was unworkable...
...Although Duarte accepted the war as the central priority of his government, he did so on the assumption that the tide of the fighting would begin to turn in the Army's favor, opening up some space in which he could then enact important parts of his own populist and reformist program...
...But the problem runs deeper...
...This arrangement, of course, leaves Duarte with little say, and offers no guarantee that the armed forces will actually comply...
...In 1984, the budget allocated 23.3% to defense, as against 30.4% for education and health combined...
...Similarly, the Treasury Police intelligence unit may have been disbanded, but the officers who served in it have been transferred to other intelligence bodies...
...In 1983, the fighting was basically restricted to the seven eastern departments...
...It now appears that when Duarte launched his original peace proposal at the United Nations, he calculated that his status as the Reagan Administration's favorite allowed him to face down the military's opposition to talks...
...At the same time, it indicated the only way in which the armed forces' veto can be overridden...
...Given the worsening geopolitical climate, the FMLN judged that it might be, paradoxically enough, too strong for its own good...
...It has made the armed forces more indispensable than ever, since any reduction in their power might lead to a victory by the FMLN...
...The Salvadorean armed forces began talking in terms of "total war," of "an integral war of attrition": their U.S...
...There is abundant evidence implicating officers in the killing of two U.S...
...If the FMLN then proved unable to keep power, it would in effect have won the war only to lose the revolution...
...The war appeared to be going well for the Army, and the La Palma meeting could be sold to the high command as the first step in negotiating the surrender of the FMLN...
...By the time a second round of talks was proposed-by the FMLN this time-Duarte had seen his leverage on the peace issue shrink considerably...
...During the Christian Democratic government, these flights have been stepped up...
...Embassy speak with increasing candor of a tacit pact between the military and the civilian authorities...
...a decrease in the number of soldiers and civil defense members accused of rights abuses, and their handover to the appropriate civilian tribunals...
...The 18 months of the Duarte presidency have seen a major military buildup...
...Far from advancing national reconciliation, then, the Christian Democrats are further polarizing the conflict...
...policy-the military defeat of the FMLN...
...But in fact the war has only spread deeper and wider, with the corresponding impact on the entire fabric of Salvadorean society...
...political detainees testify that torture is the routine means of obtaining extra-judicial confessions...
...Yet Duarte has been unable to bring any of them to trial...
...Eugenio Vides Casanova declared that, "All the resources of the state must be placed at the service of our final victory...
...The point, then, is not simply that the war is the overriding priority of the Duarte government...
...The Armed Forces Social Welfare Institute (IPSFA) provides a wide range of services: commissariat, medical and hospital facilities for the soldier and his family, and pension benefits way above the public sector norm...
...Is it correct to claim that the FMLN has been severely weakened...
...nor does its defeat seem likely in the foreseeable future...
...The fierce rhetoric of the war, meanwhile, blocks any real political opening...
...Military intelligence has also shown dramatic improvements, not only in the gathering of raw intelligence data, but in its processing and use...
...That was certainly the substance of Duarte's negotiating position at La Palma...
...To hit any of these successfully might invite a U.S...
...There is no compelling evidence that the FMLN is defeated...
...But by reformulating the war of attrition on its own terms, the FMLN has sought to make casualty levels, not hardware levels, the most critical variable...
...There was to be no discussion of amalgamating the FMLN and the government forces into a single army, of military operations such as truces or ceasefires, or of power-sharing...
...Then there are those institutional changes that have strengthened the military at the expense of the civilian power structure...
...In the economic sphere, the goal is to achieve a minimal level of economic development-sufficient to inhibit the growth of mass working class support for the FMLN, especially in the cities...
...The November 30 session at Ayagualo took place only after a long meeting between Duarte and 60 members of the officer corps, at which the military spelled out clearly that its veto power went beyond the simple issue of whether talks could be held...
...In the words of the U.S...
...These have given way to an unbroken series of small and mediumscale actions, whose impact in terms of Army casualties, material losses and above all morale, is cumulative...
...Both the armed forces and the United States are likely to fear that significant human rights improvements could only come at the expense of the internal strength of the military...
...It allows the FMLN to overcome logistical problems and neutralize the considerable advantage which the armed forces derive from their new air power...
...Yet others have been introduced during his term...
Vol. 20 • January 1986 • No. 1
