TRILATERALISM Renovated for the 1980s
Sklar, Holly
"The terrain is more rugged than I imagined," Secretary of State George Shultz bluntly declared in a February visit to recolonized Grenada, "but it is certainly a lovely piece of real...
...While the alliance has been strained greatly by Reagan's unilateralist and militaristic tendencies, undoubtedly there would have been greater fissures if trilateralists had not applied some countervailing pressure...
...Debt dependency, policed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), became the preferred guarantor of neocolonialism-- la Jamaica...
...and secondly, to improve the United States' position in the geo-strategic balance with the Soviet Union...
...On the Linowitz Commission are Trilateral North American Chairman David Rockefeller...
...In East-West relations, trilateralists recognized the permanence of nuclear parity and sought to extend detente...
...the Panama Canal Treaties...
...vital interests, but how much and when...
...After initial seesawing over the two-Chinas policy, Reagan strengthened relations with the People's Republic...
...and former Defense Secretary Elliot Richardson...
...The Grenada invasion sent shockwaves throughout the trilateral alliance and the world...
...budget deficit, in part by cutting back on the rate of growth in military spending...
...Trilateral Security: Defense and Arms Control Policies in the 1980s...
...a negotiated settlement in Zimbabwe...
...A gradual resumption of detente is recommended...
...Natonal Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski...
...He is the author of Democracy Must Work: A Trilateral Agenda for the Decade, along with David Owen, former foreign secretary under the Labor Party and chair of the splinter British Social Democratic Party, and Sabui'o Okita, head of Japan's Institute for Domestic and International Policy Studies and former foreign minister...
...When Jimmy Carter left Washington and retired to Plains, many observers assumed that the trilateralists had retired along with him...
...The terrain is more rugged than I imagined," Secretary of State George Shultz bluntly declared in a February visit to recolonized Grenada, "but it is certainly a lovely piece of real estate...
...The People's Republic of China, long considered a "drop out," was now ready to be assimilated into the capitalist world economy and re12Jimmy Carter: Many assumed the trilateralists had retired with him...
...Instead they call for renewed arms control efforts following the more traditional mix of negotiation and modernization...
...Yet commission members have been active in and outside the Reagan coalition, and are key actors in the elite debate over Central America...
...Further tremors were felt in April, when what had been only rumors of CIA mining of Nicaragua's harbors became fact...
...The Trilateral Commission's most important recent report, Democracy Must Work, fudges the matter by not taking an explicit position on Contadora, for example, but leans toward political settlement: "An America beleagured and bogged down in a crisis immediately south of its border is likely to be an America less able to enhance trilateral cooperation and to promote trilateral security . . . West Europe and Japan should give some serious consideration to becoming associated-as Canada already is- with longer-term socio-economic development plans for the Central American and Caribbean regions . . . such external assistance would mitigate the tendency in the United States to perceive the Central American problem purely as a Soviet-Cuban challenge and encourage the needed longer-range and more patient policy of both political and economic development...
...By the time the commission's first plenary meeting was held in Japan in May 1975, the Ford Administration was following a more trilateralist approach and preparations were underway for the first Western economic summit...
...Trilateral commissioners have served on both groups: Kissinger...
...From this line-up, the Trialogue discussion and other references, it seems the trilateralist majority lies with the Linowitz Commission, even among U.S...
...Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick...
...They were concerned that growing economic and political rivalries would damage, or, possibly destroy, the Western alliance...
...To the horror of the rollbackers-among them U.N...
...In 1983, Reagan won an increase in the U.S...
...But even if accommodation succeeds here, it is likely the counterrevolutionary consensus will retrench at the Guatemalan border...
...Deeper economic ties were advocated, both as a vehicle for Western profit and as a means of diluting Eastern bloc communism and restraining Soviet support for national liberation movements...
...members...
...The emphasis had shifted from internal to external challenges: a wave of Third World national liberation struggles loomed larger in the wake of the April 1975 U.S...
...fragmentation of forces supporting the NIEO...
...But they were hampered by their own lack of consensus in defining the means and priorities of their more "moderate," selective intervention.* Trilateralism, albeit hard-line trilateralism, has been represented in the Reagan Administration primarily by Vice-President George Bush, Federal Reserve Chief Paul Volcker, and (except on Central America) Secretaries of State Alexander Haig and George Shultz...
...and strengthening of the IMF and World Bank...
...Managing Interdependence Twelve years have passed since 17 influential North Americans, Europeans and Japanese gathered at the Rockefeller estate in Tarrytown, New York to plan the Trilateral CommisREPORT ON THE AMERICAS sion...
...A minimum of social justice and reform," said the report, "will be necessary for stability in the long run...
...Secretary of State Cyrus Vance...
...former World Bank President Robert McNamara...
...the 1973-74 OPEC oil shocks raised the specter of "commodity power" behind the Third World call for a New International Economic Order (NIEO...
...Contradictions Under Carter Trilateralism had a major chance to move from theory to practice when President Jimmy Carter, who was invited to join the commission in 1973, selected 25 fellow commissioners for top Administration posts...
...The benchmarks of trilateral success in the 1980-84 period are few, but, nonetheless, significant...
...Both the United States and Britain should back this with some form of compulsory military service...
...As trilateralists see it, deficit reduction would help ease the high interest rates which aggravate the debt crisis and drain investments from other industrial nations...
...From this and previous reports,* renovated trilateralism can be sketched as follows: Trilateral Relations: Trilateralists see the annual summits as important arenas for building consensus, negotiating trade-offs and gaining momentum for policies which go against the domestic grain (such as the commitment to decontrol U.S...
...Trilateralists are regrouping for another round of global renovation, and debate over Central America is one of their prime testing grounds...
...The debate turns on the Soviet Union: is detente to be buried completely under a trilateralChinese axis or is detente with the Soviets a higher priority...
...warded for an enduring Sino-Soviet split...
...But establishment debate will be over the means to preserve Western dominance in the Third World, and not the ethics of domination itself...
...dated description of Economic Summit...
...Japan should be encouraged to meet its growing alliance obligations under the flexible rubric of "comprehensive security" which encompasses economic security assistance as well as military commitments...
...Clearly, trilateralists are split between support for the Kissinger Commission or for the pro-Contadora Inter-American Dialogue, co-chaired by corporate lawyer Sol Linowitz, who served in several ambassadorial capacities during the Carter years...
...At the Trilateral Commission's April plenary meeting in Washington, Central America claimed a prominent place on the agenda, and the commission's quarterly magazine, Trialogue, printed excerpts from the discussion...
...But trilateralism remains fraught with contradictions and trapped in the illogic of minority rule on a world scale...
...A broad prescription for strengthening trilateralism and overcoming these global challenges was spelled out in the commission's 1977 report, Toward a Renovated International System...
...And to the rollbackers' dismay, Reagan showed that he could even be tempered on the issue of anti-communism...
...While the Trilateral Commission held a meeting in Peking in May 1981, there is disagreement over whether to extend the economic embrace of China into a military alliance...
...14 REPORT ON THE AMERICAS North-South Relations: There is great concern with the possibility of "major social breakdowns" in the Third World, including massive famines, population migrations and enhanced "opportunities for extremists of the left and right to seize power...
...CIA Director William Casey...
...Sharing International Responsibilities Among the Trilateral Countries, etc...
...former Secretary of Commerce Juanita Kreps...
...the Camp David Peace Accords...
...East-West Relations and Military Policy: The report on trilateral security places the West and the Soviet Union at a crossroads: "They can either reach accommodations which will make possible a reduction of their military competition or face an increasingly unstable world in which the economic burdens of defense will grow and the security of all nations will diminish...
...Reflecting the renewed tilt toward accommodationism, the report is designed as an agenda for upcoming Western summits...
...defeat in Vietnam...
...AFL-CIO Holly Sklar is the editor of Trilateralism: The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management (South End Press, 1980) and co-author of our May/June 1982 Report, "South Atlantic Triangle...
...hegemony over Western Europe and Japan, and advocated instead a strategy of "collective management" over an increasingly "interdependent" world economy...
...There is heavy emphasis on strengthening conventional forces, ostensibly as a means of decreasing reliance on nuclear weapons...
...University of Notre Dame President Theodore Hesburgh...
...Undersecretary of Defense Fred Ikl6-Reagan promised to adhere to "SALT II, maintained assistance to Zimbabwe and helped bail-out the debt-ridden Polish economy...
...Central America has fuelled contradictions within the trilateral forces and brought its adherents into the thick of policy debate anew...
...At the 1983 Williamsburg Economic Summit, Japan's important role in Western security was given explicit recognition...
...When Accommodation Fails...
...and United Nations Ambassador Andrew Young...
...The trilateral countries are encouraged to increase official development assistance, liberalize import restrictions and expand the resources of the IMF, World Bank and regional development banks...
...The international debt crisis is seen as a "liquidity" crisis (rather than a "solvency" crisis), requiring flexible re-scheduling of payments, moderate infusions of new private bank credit and strong IMF intervention...
...They rejected Nixon's unilateralist attempt to reassert U.S...
...Special Negotiator for the Panama Canal Treaties Sol Linowitz...
...and Council on Foreign Relations President Winston Lord (as senior counselor) on the Kissinger Commission...
...Western European governments should make a longterm commitment to raising military spending at a rate of 3 to 4 percent annually...
...contribution to the IMF over *For a fuller discussion of elite debates over foreign policy, see Holly Sklar, "Many Paths to War," in Beyond Survival (South End Press, 1983), edited by Michael Albert and Dave Dellinger...
...In 1980, Brzezinski expressed the central foreign policy contradiction, but he insisted it was merely two sides of the same coin...
...In the case of Central America, it is likely a Mondale Administration will attempt a negotiated settlement for Nicaragua and El Salvador (applying lessons from the Zimbabwe experience...
...An Updated Trilateral Agenda After undermining trilateralism in practice during the Carter years, Zbigniew Brzezinski has recently taken another shot at trilateralism on paper...
...Trilateralists inside and outside the Reagan Administration resisted the right-wing attempt at all-out rollback...
...If Reagan is reelected, many trilateralists can be expected to voice their opposition to the probable massive intervention in Central America...
...former Ambassador at Large to the Middle East, Robert Strauss...
...One: to make the United States historically more relevant to a world of genuinely profound change...
...Despite lip service to more equity in resource distribution and decision-making, trilateralists have proven quite willing to use force in an attempt to impose order where co-optation is inadequate and the stakes too high...
...democratization in the Dominican Republic...
...President Lane Kirkland...
...New influentials" or "middle-class countries"--such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria, Mexicoshould be conceded a larger role and stake in the capitalist club...
...and Soviet power appeared to be on the ascent...
...And, indeed, trilateralist policies were successful in many areas: the "peaceful" ouster of Michael Manley in Jamaica...
...For example, Japan should increase its role in economic assistance to strategically important countries such as Turkey, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand and Egypt...
...It advocated accommodation and cooptation in place of a futile effort to preserve the status quo with confrontation...
...oil prices at the 1978 Bonn Summit...
...Future meetings should be known as Strategic or Policy Summits, rather than the out*Facilitating Development in a Changing World: Trade, Finance, Aid...
...Among them were Vice-President Mondale...
...As time passed, however, it'was clear trilateralism was suffering from an acute case of contradictions...
...Coca-Cola Chairman Roberto Goizueta...
...The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the year-long hostage crisis in Iran provided shock therapy for the "Vietnam Syndrome," as the Carter Administration emphasized rapid intervention over reform and substituted the second Cold War for detente (which long before Afghanistan was being perceived as a failure in co-opting the Soviet Union...
...Trilateralism was further institutionalized, especially Japanese participation, through the annual Western summits...
...A top priority for trilateral action is reduction of the U.S...
...SEPTEMBERIOCTOBER 1984 13 SEFFPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1984 13strong opposition from right-wingers who saw it as a bail-out of unpatriotic multinational banks and spendthrift Third World countries...
...Rollback Versus Containment Even before Ronald Reagan's inauguration, the trilateral accommodationist consensus had fractured and a harder-line posture of "limited containment" or "selective intervention" was being readied...
...Newly industrialized countries should be further integrated into the management of the international economy (within trilateral rules) through these multilateral lending agencies...
...For the Carter Administration it was fatal...
...Brzezinski increasingly advocated militaristic geostrategic policies, at the expense of accommodation to Third World change, while Secretary of State Vance remained committed to negotiation and detente...
...In the Middle East, the question is not whether to use military force in defense of alleged U.S...
...While some commission members support the Nuclear Freeze and/or a No-First-Use policy, the trilateral reports reject both approaches...
...Outside the Administration, right-wingers saw accommodation as appeasement, and they turned on the pressure from groups such as the Committee on the Present Danger...
...Shultz's Bechtel partner, Caspar Weinberger, was a member of the Trilateral Commission before becoming secretary of defense, but a born-again rollbacker, he's hardly likely to rejoin...
...integration of OPEC into the international monetary system (in part by channeling petrodollars into Western governmental and private banks and into IMF and World Bank coffers...
...And in May, the trilateralists' growing fears about Reagan's belligerence seemed to be reinforced when the Administration snubbed its nose at a World Court decision in Nicaragua's favor, and thereby at the system of international law altogether...
...The essence of trilateralism is a strong core alliance among North America, Western Europe and Japan...
Vol. 18 • September 1984 • No. 5
