October Elections-Creating a New Argentina
The month of October holds a special place in Argentina's political astrology. It was on October 17, 1945, that Army officer Juan Per6n, then minister of labor, launched the movement that...
...But chances are, happily, slim, given that the military will be preoccupied with fending off critics and, less happily, may be gearing up to suppress another round of domestic disorder...
...1981 in defense of disappeared Argentine artists...
...Dictatorship Nonetheless, the failure of the Peronist banners at an April 1982 pro-war rally drew repression...
...The regime was then led by General Leopoldo Galtieri, fourth in a line of generals to become president since the coup...
...Such factionalism demands a compromise candidate, both to counter its own centrifugal forces and to pick up non-Peronist votes...
...Continued domestic political and financial uncertainty, coupled with the effects of worldwide economic recession make it unlikely that Argentina will have access to loans that could be used for reconstructive investment...
...The possibility exists that a close election, which would be reflected in Congress, may create conditions for a unique development in Argentine history: a functioning parliamentary system in which a real opposition could influence government decision-making through open debate...
...Luder owes his lead not to an abundance of close allies, but to a lack of confirmed enemies...
...25% unemployment...
...This will be linked to a determined attempt to alter the structure of the Argentine military apparatus by reducing troop strength, reorganizing the high command, gaining power over military budgets and exerting control over contacts with the U.S...
...a 20% decline in investment...
...The Radicals, with little to lose in military support, will look to build close ties with Europe, and take a more openly critical stance toward U.S...
...If the amorphous left wing of the movement remains in the coalition, the Peronists should also gain most of the votes of youth and the poorest urbanites...
...The October 30 elections are a first, if uncertain, step in creating a new Argentina...
...It was on October 17, 1945, that Army officer Juan Per6n, then minister of labor, launched the movement that twice elected him president, stood behind him through 17 years of exile and returned him to the presidency in 1973...
...The manufacturing economy, dependent on Argentina's high per capita income-by Latin American standards--was geared to domestic consumption...
...Only when that is accomplished will the fallen be honored-and avenged...
...The nation's productive apparatus has been all but dismantled by an inflexible application of "free market" policies...
...reaucracy is said to have made a pact with the armed forces...
...The numbers, however, only tell part of the story...
...July/Aug 1983 Fruits of this unwholesome, if not unholy, alliance have already been seen in the recent announcement that the right to strike has been reinstated and that collective bargaining-under government-approved unions-will be permitted for the first time since the 1976 coup...
...Charges of war profiteerMothers pray at the supposed site of 400 graves of disappeared persons...
...Given generalized revulsion against the military, it may be that this Peronist maneuver will actually benefit the UCR...
...Even as international opinion-especially in Latin America-supported Argentina's historic claims to the islands, it was clear that the regime hoped the crisis would mute the increasingly vocal and militant critics of their conservative economic policies...
...In fact, there is little choice...
...Universities, hospitals and teaching institutions of all kinds, identified after the 1976 coup as incubators of social unrest, have languished without financial support...
...Neither party has yet named its candidate...
...This call was based on the assumption that the military was too poisoned as an institution to cleanse itself, and that real accountability would only be possiJ. E. Murray is a Latin America spe- cialist who lived for several years in Argentina...
...The wounds of the last 1 0-if not 50-years are deep, and untainted leadership of the Left or center has yet to emerge...
...Several variables add up to an anything-can-happen environment...
...Prices, wages and credit will remain controlled under either party...
...These debacles cannot, in fact, be separated from the economic deterioration and resulting backlash...
...In retrospect, it seems clear that the military's debacle has ensured that the Islas Malvinas will remain the Falkland Islands even longer-something no Argentine, of any political persuasion, can forgive...
...The resounding defeat was seen as the ultimate refutation of claims that authoritarian military rule is the only assurance of national security...
...These changes in the Argentine economy have major implications for the October elections...
...Deals with the military will have to be struck if elections leading to an assumption of power are to take place at all...
...Argentina's "transition to democracy" is still far from given...
...Further drawing the regime into the international spotlight was the nationalist adventure to retake the Malvinas/Falkland Islands...
...Democratic Transition...
...36 ble under a civilian government responsive to domestic and international opinion...
...39update * update . update . update The Peronists can be expected to do as little as possible to antagonize the military without cutting into the party's political support...
...So Argentina, like countries throughout the region, will be more open to foreign investment, regardless of pronouncements made for domestic consumption...
...38 The Peronist movement is split now, as it has been since its inception, into a political faction, a trade union faction and a fragmented left wing...
...The two parties have distinct arenas of support...
...Free Market" Inflexibility While still heavily dependent on agricultural exports, Argentina developed a diversified economy with considerable industrial strength under the post-World War II import substitution model...
...a $3 billion balance of payments deficit...
...As it was, not only was Argentina exposed even more harshly than before as a backward, brutal dictatorship, but its pariah status hindered alliances, further threatening national security...
...His candidacy promises the greatest possibility for winning votes outside the Peronist fold, among the middle class and unorganized workers...
...For the Peronists, major actors in Argentine political life for 38 years, this contest will be their first without Juan Per6n at the head...
...military...
...Economic policy similarities end there, however...
...Argentina's political scene may well progress from macabre to treacherous...
...In return the Peronist "verticalists," those fiercely loyal to the movement, and union bureaucrats will receive carte blanche to deal with rank-and-file insurgency-certain to rise as employment picks up and workers press for cost of living adjustments...
...In any case, the Radical Party (UCR) is in a better position to control the Casa Rosada than at any time since their 1928 victory...
...Luder-with his three-piece-suit style-is a member of the political faction and not closely identified with union bureaucracy...
...Internecine Battles The possibility exists that, though Per6n's widow and ex-officio head of the Peronist Party, Isabel Martinez de Per6n, may endorse Luder, the glue of opportunism will not hold...
...On those grounds, the European Economic Community imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on trade with Argentina...
...Most have concluded that the Peronists will win by a maximum of 10% to 12%, followed very closely by a resurgent Radical Party...
...The Radicals are counting on a heavy middleclass, white-collar and public employee vote in the major cities and a strong showing in the provinces...
...The process that has brought Argentina to the brink of democracy and economic collapse has been propelled by two driving forces: a documented record of torture and murder carried out by the military, and the failures of the' military government itself...
...While the UCR has been rhetorically aggressive in denouncing foreign investment, the Peronists appear to be urging flexibility...
...Given the strength of the Argentine claim, support for the British position would likely have been lessened had Argentines been called to war by an elected president...
...Sharing the military's fear of the unpredictability of left-wing strength, the Peronist union buNACLA Reportupdate * update . update . update ; 8 C) 0t 5000 marched in Paris in Nov...
...Peronists will opt for higher wage settlements in collective bargaining and offer protection for domestic industries, directing the flow of redistribution toward unionized workers...
...a 15% drop in industrial output...
...During the political hiatus dating from 1973, an estimated one million young voters entered the electoral rolls...
...Differences in foreign policy, closely tied to the parties' distinct relations with the armed forces, will also be evident...
...The various left-wing groupings may form an electoral alliance with other center/Left parties such as the Intransigent Party of Oscar Alende...
...Loans Not Forthcoming In the economic field, the two parties also share the narrow margins imposed by Argentina's critical financial position...
...Railj Alfonsin, a former senator who heads a political grouping within the UCR which has been outspoken on the military issue, is the party's most likely candidate...
...Striking Military Deals In spite of these differences, the Peronists and Radicals-neither of whom have enunciated any clear programmatic positions-share a corrosive similarity...
...In the aftermath of the ten-weekwar, strong sentiments for a return to the barracks were expressed within the armed forces themselves...
...Both parties will seek to redistribute income, but the locus of benefit will diverge dramatically...
...The war was only the most recent in a long line of fiascos revealing the bankruptcy of the military's governing strategies-even on their own terms...
...z 0: 0 0o n NACLA Repodupdate * update . update . update military campaign created its own tornado of criticism, whose whirl- winds tore apart the armed forces as well as Argentina's pro-U.S...
...The Peronists, whose ability to wheel and deal has never been questioned--or limited by inconvenient principles-have taken a definite, if dubious, lead in this regard...
...Democracy vs...
...Radicals will focus increases in middle- and whitecollar sectors, principally by expanding state employment...
...Regarded as a classic example of the middle-class centrist parties so beloved by the U.S...
...While there is virtually no likelihood of a return to overt Argentine participation in Central America, a Peronist government will not be a vocal critic of Washington's role...
...The Peronists depend on their traditional stronghold in the organized working class, on sectors tied to the small- and mediumsized producers and on the backing of nationalist, anti-communist elements in the military...
...The prospects that Argentines will, after troubles and tragedy of long standing, create a national consensus built on political democracy and economic reconstruction are not good...
...In the black and'white terms of statistical indicators, the situation was bad enough: a $40 billion foreign debt, with approximately $18 billion due in the short term...
...But Argentine workers, steeped in an experience of struggle and solidarity, will create, it is hoped, new political expressions that, while drawing on the undeniable conquests of their Peronist past, will discard its multiple dark undersides...
...Both parties will tighten restrictions on imports, attempt to prime manufacturing productivity and increase state earnings on agricultural exports without leading landowners to cut back production...
...In recent months, evidence has surfaced that traces the crimes to the highest levels of the armed forces...
...One of the unquantifiable results of seven years of ultramonetarist policies has been to roll back the fragile patina of development that Argentina had achieved...
...Argentines, ever-mindful of international opinion, were further humiliated by Britain's success in gaining European support by contrasting Argentina's "dictatorial regime" with Great Britain's "democratic system...
...Integral to this multi-class campaign was the call for a return to civilian rule...
...At issue are investigations into the disappeared, corruption and the conduct of the Malvinas War...
...State Department, conservative scholars and journalists, the UCR's new lease on life can be attributed to its uncompromising call for truth about the disappeared, as well as denunciations of corruption on all levels...
...For the Peronists, the odds favor Italo Luder, who led the Senate under the last Peronist regime (1973-76) to be chosen as party candidate over several other former ministers and lesser known figures...
...As the story of Argentina's "disappeared" became clear, widespread revulsion resulted in an international campaign demanding that those responsible be held accountable...
...This illegal demonstration was backed by the then outlawed General Labor Confederation (CGT) and less overtly supported by a coalition of five banned political parties, the Multipartidaria-a wide ranging group including both the Radicals and the Peronists...
...But unemployment and underemployment, falling real wages and the growJuly/Aug 1983 37update * update . update . update ing inequality in income distribution allow little hope for consumer-based revitalization...
...No new capital is available from commercial banks or international lending institutions and no one dreams that domestic capital flight will reverse...
...ing had begun to surface, and military heads were rolling as attempts were made to mete out blame...
...Informed observers agree that the election will be close...
...While details of this accord are notand may never be-known, reliable sources report that it promises the military that the issue of the disappeared will be handled by the courts on a case-by-case basis, channeling popular retribution into "scapegoating" and not into an assault on the military as an institution...
...In addition, approximately 700,000 to one million Argentines have emigrated in search of economic opportunity or to escape repression...
...Central American intervention...
...Wounds Are Deep Under any Argentine regime the possibility of military adventurism-in the Beagle Channel dispute with Chile, or in the Malvinas-cannot be ruled out...
...For seven of those years the country has lived under a military regime whose record for brutality and ineptitude would be hard to equal, even in the sordid annals of Latin American dictatorships...
...Yet certain predictions can be made since the Argentine political process makes the class identity of the party weigh heavily...
...Thousands of Argentines, incensed by mounting unemployment, bankruptcies and prices, had taken to the streets in protest just three days before the assault on the Malvinas...
...While generals raced to their closets to check on their civilian wardrobes, the signs of economic deterioration continued to multiply...
...over 200% annual inflation...
...This October 30, Argentines will be going to the polls for the first time in ten years...
...foreign policy...
...This structure was fed by a steady supply of trained workers, educated technicians and professionals...
...Support for the party can also be traced to the middle class' deteriorating economic position and fears that returning Peronists to power will result in a replay of the internecine battles of 1973-75...
Vol. 17 • July 1983 • No. 4
