Constraints and Counterrevolution
The Administration is caught in a moving vice of its own making. Pressuring from the right are those who for ideological or strategic reasons are congenitally incapable of contemplating...
...France went so far as to risk U.S...
...Rhetoric actions employed to placate the Right and curtail the determination of the revolutionary forces in Central America have done neither...
...New York Times, February 20, 1982...
...aid program...
...19...
...2 The Administration still has classified information it has shown only to current and former intelligence subcommittee members purporting to prove that arms are being transferred to El Salvador...
...Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia and Honduras are reported to have been preparing a similar operation for nearly two years, although there are reports that Honduras is reluctant to allow a paramilitary force on its territory...
...But either the failure of the electoral process or a victory of the extreme Right would put the Administration in an even more untenable political position...
...The United States must be prepared to renounce the use of force in Nicaragua, disband exile groups on the Honduran border and halt exile training in the United States...
...Editorial, New York Times, March 11, 1982...
...Compiled from information in Washington Post, February 14, March 10-11, 1982...
...Within the United States, according to the State Department, mail is running twenty to one against U.S...
...After Haig completed his plans some months ago, he boasted, "We'll see who the tough guys are in this Administration...
...troops to El Salvador...
...On the other, it has been named one of the cooperating nations in a just disclosed plan to assemble paramilitary units to infiltrate into Nicaragua for hit and run attacks...
...Wheelock acknowledged that there may indeed be radio communication to El Salvador from Nicaragua, but that the Nicaraguan government does not have the "sophisticated equipment needed to detect it...
...I myself operated a radio from Honduras during our fighting which they didn't know about...
...Despite a blitz on the countries of Latin America-Haig's arm-twisting at the OAS meeting in St...
...New York Times, March 14, 1982...
...officials say it will take months to put all the elements in place...
...Instead we learn through successively more detailed leaks that covert actions are in motion to profoundly disrupt the legitimate internal process of a sovereign state on the baseless grounds that it is tipping the balance of the Salvadorean struggle...
...4. Latinamerican Press (Lima), February 11, 1982...
...They equate Marxism with totalitarianism, liberation with Soviet puppetry and any social change with a threat to U.S...
...Finally, this package includes establishing an intelligence-gathering network of local and U.S...
...3 Venezuela's opposition party, Acci6n Democritica, scuttled a Socialist International meeting in Caracas in February by demanding on ideological grounds that it rescind Nicaragua's observer status...
...5 Nicaragua, Cuba and FMLN/FDR of El Salvador have already endorsed the proposal...
...Presented to Haig in two separate discussions with Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castaleda in mid-March, the three-point initiative calls for an end to U.S...
...From the other side is a wall of opposition, certainly not unified in its objectives, but every day more alarmed and hardened in its resolve to prevent a Central American Vietnam...
...It includes the Caribbean economic initiative, increased military aid to El Salvador and Honduras from a special emergency fund, training for Salvadorean military forces in the United States, stepped-up aerial and other surveillance, increased military exercises in the Caribbean, a propaganda campaign to build national consciousness against Cuban and Nicaraguan activity, etc...
...Representative David Bonior (D-Mich...
...government needs to explain the growing strength of the FMLN/FDR and the inability of the counterinsurgency forces to contain it...
...6. New York Times, February 4, 1982...
...2 The Administration Stands Alone Internationally, Reagan has not only failed to get the western allies behind him, he has even failed to neutralize them...
...For similarly struggling forces in the rest of Latin 42 NACLA ReportJanlFeb 1982 America and other regions, it has been a beacon for non-capitalist and independent economic development and political organization...
...1 M One facet of the CIA covert action plans calls for $19 million to finance a minimum 5 0 0-man paramilitary force to attack vital economic installations in Nicaragua, such as bridges, dams and power stations (one might add commercial airplanes, the oil refinery and cement factory...
...bilateral discussions with Cuba and Nicaragua...
...There is even growing dissension within the Administration itself, further paralyzing its ability to project a coherent strategy or long-term goals...
...Costa Rica, hostage to its overriding need for immediate economic assistance from the United States, has joined the exclusionary and hypocritically named Central American Democratic Community with Honduras and El Salvador...
...a This implies that the contingency planning was already in place prior to approval...
...21 The best hope is that this is another ploy to regain the confidence of the extreme Right, embarrass the Soviet Union and give the United States an advantage in Geneva arms reduction discussions...
...One document made available to the New York Times granted the CIA broad authorization to carry out political and paramilitary operations against "Cubans and Cuban supply lines...
...Since this would mark the end of public acceptability of Reagan's refusal to recognize the legitimacy of the insurgents, there have been rumors of a preemptive coup in which the figureheads of extremism would be killed off in an effort to stop the bad press...
...8 There are also strong moves to hold the line on aid to Guatemala and oppose all further military aid to El Salvador...
...Venezuela is playing a duplicitous role...
...In El Salvador, the pivot of the struggle, the Administration has in recent months linked its public policy to the survival of Napoleon Duarte and the success of the coming elections...
...But in the rest of the world there is such little enthusiasm for the electoral solution that only five countries are sending observers...
...Does it sound implausible...
...On the one hand, it has maintained independence from Reagan's formulation of the Caribbean economic initiative and continued to mouth protestations of support for non-intervention...
...The Administration accused the Sandinistas of directing the fighting in El Salvador from radio transmitter command posts in Nicaragua...
...ire by concluding a $16 million arms sale to the Sandinistas...
...Even more threatening to policy-makers, 54% want the U.S...
...New York Times, March 14, 1982...
...and Washington Post, March 2, 1982...
...2 2 In this event, the massive naval maneuvers off the coast of Cuba scheduled for May, which include aircraft carriers, could be mobilized under the new Caribbean command in Key West...
...Having alarmed the Sandinistas into a military preparedness, the Administration is now playing Catch-22, using that defense buildup as one of its justifications for a scheme of heightened aggression...
...But Nicaragua's FSLN has warned, and Haig understands, that should the separate revolutionary struggles be converted by the United States into a regional war, Nicaragua cannot be expected to remain exempt...
...Washington Post, March 10, 1982...
...It is constructed on the same foundation that has led to ever more serious blunders in the first place-that the Central American situation is the result of Soviet interference and not a legitimate domestic revolutionary situation growing out of untenable inequalities...
...If that happens, they will surely become an occupation army...
...Pressuring from the right are those who for ideological or strategic reasons are congenitally incapable of contemplating coexistence with revolutionary states in their backyard...
...Elements for negotiations with Nicaragua would include Nicaragua's agreement to halt the purchase of new weapons, and a reduction in its Army...
...Most likely, though, will be the ultimate use of massive airpower to counter the FMLN offensive...
...The proposal calls for separate U.S...
...At that time the U.S...
...The country has not had legitimate elections since 1954, and the recently concluded elections, in which foreign newsmen were harassed and the losing candidates unanimously shouted fraud, did not improve its image...
...As the Reagan Administration closes off one option after another, it moves inexorably toward one of only two remaining options: deescalation or militarization...
...Ambassador Kirkpatrick's manic burblings about the Sandinista's genocidal tendencies toward Nicaragua's Indian population have only appealed to the already convinced...
...7. Washington Post, March 8, 1982...
...What kind of actions is this money going to finance...
...The United States would in turn do what it should be doing anyway: enforce the neutrality laws against paramilitary training camps in the United States and commit itself not to use or threaten force against Nicaragua...
...Acccusations of its military involvement in Central America have unleashed opposition at the highest civilian levels, for one...
...The Right sees, correctly, that the Administration's failure to take immediate drastic action has cost it the initiative...
...Radio Havana, FBIS, October 23, 1981...
...9. Washington Post, March 5, 1982...
...The Administration has been negotiating for use of airstrips in Honduras, Colombia and the Caribbean in case of "regional emergency...
...The worst is that the Administration is running amok, with no grand plan, even in its own terms...
...And meanwhile, recent major offensives by the elite forces of the Salvadorean Army have been repelled by the FMLN...
...DiGiovanni," U.S...
...This plan raises many questions...
...Like Dr...
...position was that Nicaragua should reduce the size of its military force, stop importing weaponry from Cuba and the Soviet Union and agree to permit an international body to verify Nicaragua's compliance with these actions...
...Administration officials pointed to airstrips they said were being elongated to accommodate Soviet Migs...
...a highly publicized economic and military aid initiative for the Caribbean Basin, Reagan's push to resume aid to Chile and Argentina-the Administration can only count the dictatorships firmly in its pocket...
...The policy, he explained, is "to deal with this issue as a global problem...
...and New York Times, March 14, 1982...
...But those trying to rationalize their optimism for such a scenario will be hard put to explain the fact that on the same day Haig told Castaieda that the negotiations would hinge on Cuba and Nicaragua's willingness to stop aiding the Salvadorean guerrillas, he told reporters the Administration intended to draw the Soviet Union into the picture...
...This is presumably what Mr...
...a convocation in Washington of all Latin American armies except Nicaragua, Grenada and Cuba for a closed-door strategy session...
...5. New York Times, March 10, 1982...
...Should the Administration opt for deescalation, the proposal offered by Mexico for negotiations provides the best opportunity...
...U.S...
...As Congressman Gerry Studds (D-Mass...
...The political situation in Guatemala has changed rapidly during the last year...
...In the Administration's clumsy attempts to bridge the gap between the desired and the realizable, it has succeeded only in widening it almost beyond repair...
...vital interests...
...The New Right is angrily demanding action to match the rhetoric on issues it holds dear, while mainstream politicians, with one eye on the polls and the other on the 1982 Congressional elections, are getting edgier about an escalation of either...
...Whether any of these bills will get through the hard-line Senate is the question...
...One could fairly surmise that only the networking aspect of this proposal is new...
...Otherwise, he noted, "people like Haig and Kirkpatrick would have long ago invaded us...
...Given conditions in El Salvador, these delegations may well witness the election of the butcher D'Abuisson, who has publicly promoted the use of napalm as "indispensable" in the war...
...8. New-York Times, March 8 and March 13, 1982...
...But State Department strategists seem not to care about the political and military risks involved, the cost of "victory" or what they would redeem from the rubble should victory be theirs...
...It has redoubled its efforts to drum its own message into people's heads, and in the process has made a string of gaffes that reflect the desperation of a cornered animal...
...To be supervised by the United States, the force itself is Latin American and would operate as small "action teams" out of camps on the Nicaragua-Honduras border...
...And they have...
...official acknowledged that the United States could not be certain of victory in Central America even with 250,000 ground troops...
...Following the CIA slide show, a New York Times editorial opined that Nicaragua's military level does not exactly put it on a par with the Cuban missile crisis...
...4 But it is also taking a stronger role than Honduras in discouraging the use of its borders for counter-revolutionary raids into Nicaragua...
...Nicaragua, until now, has played a dual role, both at the level of images...
...Thus it is reasonable to expect that one of the U.S...
...These forces have set the agenda and the tone for Central America this past year...
...The best hope is that wiser heads will prevail in the Administration...
...We even had one in the United States...
...For the Reagan forces, it has provided the "excuse" the U.S...
...It was not made clear why this new force would be more problematic than what Honduras is already countenancing...
...Neighboring countries would also limit their purchase of sophisticated military hardware since the countries to the north all have more tanks and aircraft than Nicaragua...
...Washington Post, March 4, 1982...
...One U.S...
...Regarding Nicaragua in particular, most countries are still continuing bilateral aid as a means of "moderating" the 38 NACLA ReportJanlFeb 1982 revolutionary process and keeping Nicaragua from having to rely only on the Socialist bloc...
...Because the charge that Nicaragua is being groomed as a Central American superpower by Cuba and the Soviet Union is so patently lame, there was an inevitable logic that the charges would have to backfire...
...When one further considers the possibilities for paranoia and mistrust that could be engendered in a beleaguered government toward all "moderate forces," and the possibilities for valid or erroneous repression which can then be pointed to by the Administration as new demonstrations of totalitarianism, the scheme becomes even more Machiavellian...
...Why should "moderate" forces require covert assistance instead of direct U.S...
...posed it, it remains to be seen whether members of Congress "are more frightened of their constituencies or of their president.' ' Tactics of Desperation How has the Reagan Administration dealt with the handwriting on the wall...
...These forces would be supplemented by a Latin American commando operation of 1,000 or more men, some of whom are currently being trained by Argentine military officials...
...New York Times, March 11, 1982...
...24 CONSTRAINTS AND COUNTERREVOLUTION 1. Newsweek, March 1, 1982...
...agents...
...Policy and the Marxist Threat...
...Responding to this flood of public and diplomatic opinion, Congressional moderates are finally galvanizing to stay Reagan's hand...
...The Heritage Foundation had warned, regarding Nicaragua, that "the longer that government remains in power, the stronger its security apparatus will become, and the more difficult it will be to dislodge it...
...7 Legislation is being introduced in the Senate to prevent Reagan from ordering combat troops to El Salvador without prior Congressional approval, and another more comprehensive amendment to the War Powers Act which, among other things would require prior approval for covert intelligence actions as well as military actions...
...The revolutionary forces have gained in military strength and political capabilities...
...The meeting, called to discuss the Central American crisis, was cancelled by president Willy Brandt, 3940 NACLA Rannrt since other parties were not willing to break with Nicaragua...
...The sine qua non of the package was that Nicaragua stop assisting the insurgents in El Salvador...
...In that event, it could become a militant, powerful and consolidated rearguard, the political and military battlefield...
...Jaime Wheelock, a member of the FSLN National Directorate and Minister of Agriculture, was in Washington when the CIA presented its "irrefutable proof" of Nicaraguan bellicosity, and masterfully shot holes in what flimsy evidence had not gone down in its own flames...
...But that is obviously too reasonable a solution for the Reagan foreign policy makers...
...Negotiated in secrecy, the goals of this new regional organization are to "promote democracy, obtain backing to resolve economic difficulties, and to utilize the inter-American system as a defense against outside aggression...
...One who saw the evidence said it shows "small amounts of small arms," contributing to the suspicion that it is another volunteer operation on the scale of the lone soldier.'" During Representative Clarence Long's visit to Nicaragua in February, Daniel Ortega suggested that the United States show the Nicaraguans where the arms are coming through so they can put a stop to it...
...And even Argentina seems caught in several uncomfortable contradictions...
...If they look backward they will see the political wreckage strewn behind them...
...Where Will It End...
...allies will ask for an OAS peace-keeping force to "guarantee elections" in El Salvador...
...But a complicated 10-point plan, approved by Reagan at the same NSC meeting is already fully operational...
...The plans for these, according to the New York Times, appear to have been approved all or in part following a National Security Council presentation to the President on November 16, 1981i.1 This would put it right after the Administration decided there was no hope for the offer Enders made to the Sandinistas last August...
...Taking the Administration's saber rattling at face value, the Sandinistas have in fact built their defense apparatus as strong as their meager budget allows, counting primarily on an organized and armed people to make the threat of war as costly a proposition as they can...
...There is thus every likelihood, given the stepped-up border activities, acts of sabotage, assassinations and disclosures of international movement that the covert preparations have been in place for some time too, only awaiting the green light...
...What was characterized as leftist alarmism a month ago is now yesterday's headlines...
...Di Giovanni had in mind when he suggested that "appropriately channeled assistance to the democratic institutions in Nicaragua could be far more effective and far less expensive than our currently structured official U.S...
...That means we have to harness, and we have been, the full panoply of political, economic and security assets of the United States to deal with this problem in Moscow, in Havana, in the regional context of the Organization of American States and in El Salvador itself...
...got 100 Congressional signatures on a letter accepting the Mexican offer to mediate the dispute between the United States and Nicaragua.6 The House voted 396-3 in early March to urge the Administration to press for "unconditional discussions between the guerrillas and the Salvadorean government...
...But like Vietnam, this is a people's war...
...Washington Post, March 4, 1982...
...If de-escalation and negotiation are the best realistic hope, what is the worst nightmare...
...It also offered to consider a resumption of economic aid...
...Heedless of the cost in human suffering, insensitive to the complexities of world politics and contemptuous of public opinion they have counseled war...
...as a further step they have unified their military commands and formed a political front...
...Given this, it is necessary to keep an eye on the 25,000 troops of the 82nd Airborne Division currently training in southern California...
...Washington Post, March 14, 1982...
...In such an event, it is possible the new Central American Democratic Community would also invoke the Rio Treaty for joint defense against "outside aggressors" in Nicaragua to tie down their forces in the western region while the Miskito bands draw them from the east...
...The proud presentation of a young Nicaraguan as proof of the leadership role of Nicaragua in the Salvadorean struggle only to hear him say he had been threatened with death to corroborate it made Haig and the entire State Department a laughing stock...
...What seemed remote a year ago appears imminent today...
...Strangelove with a fiendish vision and his gloved finger on the doomsday button, the Administration has all the elements in place to unleash war...
...Quite apart from speculation about how the Soviet Union will react, it is a shaky proposition...
...It is worth noting that Haig submitted a hardline action plan to the NSC in August, at the very moment Enders was making his offer to the Nicaraguans...
...It calls to mind the CIA-financed propaganda campaigns, private truckers' strikes, business lockouts, etc., of Chile days...
...Lucia...
...To defeat them will require bombing Central America "back into the stone age," to use a military reference from Vietnam days...
...threats to Nicaragua, a mutual reduction in military posturing and the signing of mutual nonaggression pacts by Nicaragua with its neighbors and with the United States...
...government to stay out of the Salvadorean conflict altogether.' Combined with the escalating economic crunch and the growing popular perception that Reaganomics will at best only make it easier for the wealthy, Reagan's coalition is in big trouble...
...and 15 de Septiembre Radio, FBIS, December 22, 1981...
...Aerial photographs of "Soviet style" calisthenics fields, airfields under repair and extension, burned areas along the Rio Coco, arrows pointing to Soviet tanks left the assembled press wondering what all the excitement was about...
...In short, the Reagan team is showing itself incapable of managing the unprecedented political crisis that brought it to power in the first place...
...They say Central America is much more important than was Vietnam, and that the lesson of Vietnam is that you have to go in to win...
...2 3 But to remind us that countervailing force does still operate against the tough guys, Nicaragua junta member Sergio Ramirez challenged, "The people of the United States have become the principal element to stop any aggression against us or intervention in Central America...
...The lack of options in Guatemala is as formidable as in El Salvador, while its geographic, economic, political and strategic importance is far greater...
...It has also been well met in Europe and the Soviet Union...
...if they look forward they can only recognize that they are in a no-win situation in Central America politically...
...3. New York Times, March 14, 1982...
...Jaime Wheelock calmly responded that the feasibility study for the airstrip improvement was prepared in 1976 during the Somoza regime by a U.S...
...New York Times, February 4, 1982...
...Washington Post, February 14, 1982...
...Presentation by Comandante Jaime Wheelock to Center for Inter-American Relations, New York, March 8, 1982...
...A second approved plan provides unspecified millions of dollars to covertly finance what are called "moderate political and economic JanlFeb1982 4142 NACLA Reoort forces" in Nicaragua...
...There have already been instances of Cuban teachers killed in Nicaragua-two in the mining district of Siuna in October, for which Misurasata took credit, and the latest a primary school teacher in Chontales province in December.' 1 It would not be a large leap of initiative for the CIA to interpret this "broad authorization" to include in its targets the "Cuban design" military installations...
...Brazil, once considered the chief sub-imperialist ally of the United States, is threading an independent course, seen in its recent $30 million development loan to Nicaragua and its opposition to a possible peace-keeping force in El Salvador...
...policy, and a recent Gallup Poll shows 89% of those polled opposed to sending U.S...
...Mexico, as ever the maverick in regional foreign policy initiatives, has offered the Reagan Administration a strong pole with which to pull itself out of deep waters in Central America...
...From the White Paper, to the photo in Le 40 NACLA ReportJanlFeb 1982 41 Figaro, to two young Nicaraguans that demonstrated the bankruptcy of the Administration's intelligence system, coordination and driven ideological determinism, the Reagan Administration has suffered a loss of credibility from which it might not be able to recover...
...company, and funded in 1977 by the Central American Development Bank with the full approval of all the Central American nations...
...2. Miami Herald, November 26, 1981...
...For another, presumably because of its wheat trade with the Soviet Union, Argentina prefers to associate itself only with attacks against the Sandinistas and not against supposed Cuban targets in Nicaragua...
Vol. 16 • January 1982 • No. 1
