Middle East Update
Safran, Nadav
MDDLE EAST UPDATE NADAV SAFRAN A good reference point for trying to understand the current situation regarding Syria, Lebanon, Israel, the U.S. and the USSR is the War of Attrition between Egypt...
...is terrified because that would pull the rug out entirely from under the U.S...
...So I'm inclined to say, "You started a job, you made a mess of it, but now you have to see it through because if you don't, then you'll have made matters still worse, and all the losses along the way will prove to have been totally in vain...
...Nasser said, "If you don't do it, I'm going to resign, and someone else will take over and will tum to the Americans and seek whatever settlement he can get from them...
...And it was then that Nasser accepted the Rogers initiative for a ceasefire and negotiations...
...is counselling the Israelis not to be in a hurry to pull out...
...Labor in Israel is in favor of that, proposing a return to the status quo ante, and much of the public wants to get started with an Israeli withdrawal...
...Then the Lebanon question subsides, as far as the Syrians are concerned...
...had said, "Don't worry about the Syrians, they'll come around and negotiate eventually...
...that is trying to press Israel to stay put...
...The Arabs would again be paralyzed by their divisions, with half of them saying that the Syrians had no business being there...
...cooperation...
...But now, the Israeli presence in Lebanon is legal, has been declared legitimate by the Lebanese government itself, which has said, "It's all right for you to stay here as long as the Syrians are still here...
...The U.S...
...is torn between its resentment against Israel for turning down its plan, on the one hand, and, on the other, its appreciation that Israel is standing there against the Soviets, who are doing something unprecedented in trying to establish a combat-military presence in Egypt...
...That was a terrible mistake, back in '75 and '76...
...And so when they had gone as far as they could go against Israel, they said to Nasser, "The time has come...
...it's been legitimized by all the Arab countries that support the agreement—whereas it's the Syrians who are there with less than full legitimacy...
...Of course there are differences between Egypt in 1970 and Lebanon in 1983, but these main components are shared in an almost uncanny way...
...plan, the U.S...
...But it can become meaningless, just as Israel's destruction of the PLO state-within-a-state can be rendered meaningless, if Israel decides to wash its hands of the whole thing and to withdraw unilaterally...
...Jordan did not take the crucial step...
...It can pull out to the Awali River or to somewhere below that line...
...The Iranians will be the dominant power in the area, and the repercussions of that on the Saudis and the entire Gulf area would be dramatic...
...He may not have told them then and there that if they didn't help, he'd resign and Syria would turn to America, but he did send his foreign minister—in the middle of the war, together with Saud al Feisal—to Washington...
...That is milk and water compared to what they'd said even in '56...
...If, as a result of an Iranian offensive, Iraq should collapse, the situation in the Gulf will be entirely different...
...At that point, Nasser went back to Moscow—this was in June or July—and tried to plead with the Soviets...
...The Soviets probed across that line, and the Israelis shot down five Soviet planes, with Soviet pilots—and very shortly after that, you had a ceasefire...
...And the Soviets say—accurately—"We told you that you shouldn't have gone into Lebanon in the first place...
...That's the Syrians' game plan, their preferred solution—the Israelis pull back and they stay put...
...You can see a bit of how the Soviets felt, by looking at their statements during the Lebanon war, which were—relatively speaking—milder than any they had made during any of the preceding Arab-Israel wars...
...The Syrians know that if Israel does start by pulling back only to the Awali River, it will end up pulling back still farther, because a pullback to the Awali doesn't solve the problem that leads Israelis to want a pullback...
...4. The U.S...
...I want to emphasize the importance of the Lebanese-Israeli agreement...
...Strangely enough, at this point it's the U.S...
...So Israel is likely to put Haddad in charge of the area up to the Awali, and it would pull farther back and hope for the best, while warning that if the PLO were to come back and to try to set up a serious infrastructure, Israel would move against them...
...And we have Arens trying to reassure the Americans, telling them that if Israel does decide to pull out, it will be in consultation with the U.S...
...The Rogers Plan, which Israel dislikes intensely, is on the table...
...He doesn't want that...
...is clearly an accomplice of Israel, in which Israel is knocking the hell out of Syria, the foreign minister of Syria goes modestly, hat in hand, together with the Saudi foreign minister, to Washington...
...The biggest threat they made was in a statement where they said, "We cannot be indifferent to what happens in an area that is so near to us...
...They are getting ready to invade Iraq...
...Beginning with this issue, his reflections on developments in the Middle East, recorded in conversation with moment's editors, will appear regularly in these pages...
...It's just not comfortable, SAM-5s or no SAM-5s, Soviets or no Soviets, for Assad to have the Israelis within artillery range of Damascus...
...One of those terms, of course, would be to have the U.S...
...But I am absolutely convinced that they came in on the same terms they had come into Egypt on, back in 1970...
...What indications...
...Staying put, harassing the Lebanese government, an incident here and there involving the loss of a few U.S...
...Unfortunately, the action that's called for is not easy or simple...
...Also, in the meantime, it became apparent that the Iranian offensive in Iraq was getting nowhere, that that situation had stabilized, at least for the time being...
...will be towards Israel in an effort to avert that...
...In any case, the Soviets decided to come in...
...But you must realize that all that is in order to strengthen your bargaining position...
...You have today an ironic reversal of the situation that obtained when the war began...
...So it may be instructive to see what happened back then...
...when the Soviets introduced their personnel, Israel stopped its in-depth raids into Egypt...
...That's why Weinberger is now going around talking about how important a job Israel is doing of blocking the Soviets, of how valuable a strategic ally Israel is, and the U.S...
...conception of withdrawal...
...I doubt they said that to Assad...
...and—now I'm speculating— the Soviets realize that if the Syrians get terms from the U.S., «hey—the Soviets—will lose their last position in the Levant...
...What are the basic elements...
...If the Israelis do demonstrate that readiness—and the agreement itself creates some of the conditions on which a successful confrontation depends—then you have, in the agreement, a major achievement...
...Over what...
...To him, they simply said, "We told you not to go in, and you went in, and now you've simply got to try to make the best of it, to get out on the best terms you can...
...It helped, of course, that in the meantime, the U.S., which, since the enunciation of the Rogers Plan in December of 1969 had been dillydallying on an Israeli request for additional Phantom jets, announced in March or April—after the Soviets began to escalate their involvement— that it was, in Nixon's words, "reconsidering its position...
...So, if, as a result of the Syrian refusal to pull out, things were to come to blows, Israel would be in a much better position...
...has a plan of its own for a settlement...
...The basic structural situation, as I analyze it, is as follows: The basic preference of the Syrians, if they could have their way, would be for the Israelis to pull out—if not all the way, then down to Southern Lebanon, to the status quo ante, with the southern area vaguely controlled by Haddad, with the Israelis moving in and out, and for them, the Syrians, to remain—not necessarily with all the strength they now have, but with enough strength to be able to be the dominant influence in Beirut...
...What do I mean when I say that the agreement helps create favorable conditions for an Israeli-Syrian political confrontation...
...So now you have the Syrians saying simply, "We will not accept the agreement, we will not pull out on the basis of the agreement...
...The will just isn't there—although we should remember that Israeli public opinion can galvanize very quickly if the Israelis are pushed too far...
...You have a bunch of mayors, and village heads, and mukhtars, and notables...
...and a desire to "bring the boys back home...
...The hard question, then, is how Assad can be made to give up the option he prefers...
...There isn't any more that can be gained from continuing the military confrontation unless we become more directly involved, and we told you that we will not become involved in a full-scale conflict...
...Now, Israel does have some options...
...Nasser's behavior left it with no choice but to fight...
...That conclusion causes me some pain, because I don't believe that Israel had any business going into Lebanon in the first place, and once there, they made a mess of it—but to pull out now, as the Opposition is demanding,would be even worse...
...That leads me to underscore a point about which I think much of the media mistaken...
...this after having brought the War of Attrition to an end by its resistance...
...At one time, Jordan provided that...
...There are people in Israel who are quite satisfied with such a situation, but it really serves no constructive purpose...
...We will replace your losses...
...The problem with that suggestion, of course, is that the West Bank Palestinians simply do not exist as a coherent entity...
...They will not let the Syrians embroil them in a war...
...And maybe the death of Brezhnev had something to do with their decisions, as well, although I'm told that they began their resupply of the Syrians even before Brezhnev's death and Andropov's accession...
...That's the limit...
...And they think they have a reasonable chance of achieving that...
...Now we are back again to Jordan and the residual PLO...
...They had told Nasser not to misunderstand their belligerent noises, and they're doing the same thing now...
...Where's the analogy...
...Remember how Begin reacted then...
...At various times, some outsider has provided a point of orientation for all of them, or, if not for all, then for a large group...
...It requires an Israeli readiness to confront the Syrians, to deny them the option they most prefer...
...Then, through Arens, the Israelis began to react, announced that this new situation was dangerous and could lead to war, that Israel would not accept a war of attrition, that it would reserve the right to decide where the limit was...
...All that causes the Soviets and the Syrians to climb down, to moderate the war talk and the saber rattling...
...The stiffening on the part of the U.S., coupled with the stiffening on the part of Israel, caused the Soviets to stop short and caused Nasser to follow...
...But that didn't happen...
...No problem, we do not intend to attack Syria, we do not intend to attack the missiles," and so forth...
...If Israel had permitted the Soviet presence to deny it air control in the canal area, the Egyptians, with their massed artillery, would have made mincemeat out of Israel...
...Otherwise, the Syrians will get their way...
...When the Soviets placed their Sam-5s in Syria, the Israelis reacted very, very differently from the way they had reacted when the Syrians had placed their missiles in the Bekaa Valley...
...And the reason we told you that is that we anticipated precisely this kind of development, this kind of complication...
...It drew the line because it could not afford not to...
...I need you to send me your latest missiles and personnel to man them until mine are trained...
...Israel alone cannot fill the vacuum without losing itself in the process...
...Some people have suggested that if the Soviets and the Syrians and the PLO are all preoccupied with events in Lebanon, then the West Bank Palestinians have some freedom of maneuver...
...It's in order to enable you to make a reasonable bargain, not in order for you to go and fight a war...
...At first, Israel pulled back...
...What's the stake in Lebanon...
...it's been legitimized by the U.S...
...The Syrians had all the time attacked the Saudis for being lackeys of America, for not having the guts to stand up to America...
...that is telling Israel—gently, for the time being—to hang on, and is doing things to help stiffen Israel's back...
...At first, the U.S...
...But once you get to that point, you have to go and seek a political settlement, you have to use the bargaining power that we will provide you to strike a bargain...
...get out, too, since that would please his Soviet allies...
...Now we know, from authoritative sources that have become available in Nadav Safran is Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard University...
...If the Israelis were to pull out, or even pull back unilaterally, why would the Syrians then pull out...
...From here we move to prognostication...
...The U.S., too—after the agreement was concluded—began to make noises...
...but then it began to talk in tougher terms, with Weinberger expressing concern about the Soviet missiles and so on...
...at another, it was Jordan in competition with the PLO...
...In the meantime, Syria had accepted the U.S...
...If my analysis is correct, the conclusion is that to get the Syrians to withdraw, the Israelis have to tighten their belt and hang in...
...If that doesn't work, if instead it comes down to a choice between Syria and Israel pulling back or both Syria and Israel staying where they are, I think they'd prefer the former, the pullback...
...And that's where things stand now, in the middle of June...
...Then, after the agreement was concluded, they continued to talk tough, partly because in Israel there were all these indications of softness...
...That's why I say that the agreement has a great deal of significance—it has a symbolic significance that translates into strategic and military assets if there should be a confrontation...
...They want to keep control...
...The U.S...
...When the negotiations looked promising, but hadn't yet been concluded, they spoke very tough, partly because it was a time of strain between Israel and the U.S.—Israel was trying for as much as it could get, and the U.S...
...And here you can see some of the differences between the situation today and the situation back in 1970...
...All that led to a new phase in American-Israeli strategic cooperation, a phase that lasted through 1971 and 1972 and into 1973, a phase that was, in a very real way, too good for Israel—that is, it led Israel to relax, and it left Sadat with no choice, and then you had the '73 war...
...soldiers, which will cause outrage in the U.S...
...They flew their generals in from all over, and when the consultations were over, they told the Egyptians, "All right, we will do it, because as long as you are in the position you are in now, you have no bargaining power whatsoever...
...You're worried because you're totally exposed, because you don't have any air cover...
...Back then, Syria was in Lebanon legitimately, and Israel was the invader...
...They're getting into a fight with the Lebanese government, but they're not fighting with Israel...
...And objectively, given the mushy internal situation in Israel, they may be right...
...1. Israel and Egypt are engaged in a war of attrition in which the Soviets become involved, in a big way, in support of Egypt...
...And we are not going to get sidetracked and bogged down in Lebanon...
...So: Attrition, capitalizing on the war-weariness in Israel...
...We need additional equipment...
...We told you that you should get out of there...
...Imagine: In the middle of a war in which the U.S...
...If he gives up on that, then he'll start bargaining, in order to achieve the withdrawal under the best possible terms...
...OK, we'll give you air cover...
...The PLO isn't strong enough to provide the coherence, and Jordan still isn't willing to provide it...
...It helped as well that in July, Nixon made his famous statement, "We know who the aggressors are, we know that they want to throw the Israelis into the sea," and Kissinger made his calculated misstep, saying, "We want to throw the Soviets out...
...This happened after the agreement, after that obstacle in the U.S.-Israel relationship had been cleared and after Arens had become Defense Minister...
...No one in Israel is going to respond in a very forceful way, in a way that would also serve as a warning to the Syrians, to the guerrilla attacks against Israelis in Lebanon...
...The idea of a de facto partition of Lebanon between Syria and Israel is not a good bargain for Assad...
...Staying at the Awali leaves Israel, still, in the midst of the factional fights between the Shi'i, the Druze, the Phalange...
...The Soviets send in their personnel to man missiles they provided, they send in pilots for the first time...
...Therefore, the Syrians are there as the occupiers, the invaders, the ones who don't have the right to be there—not only in the eyes of Lebanon, Israel and the U.S., but also in the eyes of many Arab countries...
...What does all this imply for the future...
...But it drew the line at the combat zone in the Suez Canal area...
...He begged them to hang on a while longer, to try one or two more sallies to see whether the Israelis might not withdraw, and the Soviets said to him, "Absolutely not...
...position would be clear...
...He doesn't want a de facto military frontier between Syria and Israel that would give the Israelis the position to pincer Damascus, moving from the Golan and Lebanon simultaneously...
...But the PLO won't do that, because the Syrians will be content at that point...
...was eager to get the thing done...
...the intervening years—Sadat, Heikal, others—that at the beginning of 1970, Nasser went to Moscow and said to the Russians, "Look, the Israelis are knocking the hell out of me with their raids into the Egyptian interior...
...That demonstrated the value of Israel, which blocked Syria and saved Hussein without firing a shot...
...So once again you have a situation of incoherence...
...If they don't remove those missiles, we will remove them...
...They are shaking my position, I need you urgently to come help me...
...So what we have is a case where Soviet escalation of military involvement was undertaken in order to achieve a tactical political aim—at which point negotiations were to begin...
...Nasser agreed...
...He was saying, in effect, that unless he got what he wanted, the Soviets would be out and the Americans would be in...
...When Nasser came back from that trip to Moscow, Sadat met him at the airport, and said, "Well...
...That encouraged the Soviets and the Syrians, so after the agreement, they went on with their maneuvers, with their war games, reinforced their troops in the Bekaa, let the PLO back in...
...But that is a subject for another discussion...
...So we've come around full circle to the point where now it's the U.S...
...It's their personnel who have their hands on the trigger...
...In fact, I'd predict that the more you hear talk from Israel about pulling back, the more forthcoming the U.S...
...The situation there is changing, and the game there is a much bigger one, the stakes are much bigger...
...2. Israel is suffering a great deal from attrition...
...We will come forward and make noises...
...We will do it in order to restrain Israel and restore your bargaining power...
...at still another, it was mainly the PLO...
...Both the U.S...
...and Lebanon know that if the Israelis decide to pull out, whether or not there are consultations, there's nothing to stop them— and both of them are terrified at the prospect...
...Obviously, the message was from Syria to the Soviets, and what Assad was saying was that if the Soviets don't come in, he will have to get whatever he can out of the Americans...
...Arens is a conciliator who recognizes the importance of a harmonious relationship between Israel and the U.S...
...That is their preferred position, the one they are aiming for...
...At that point, the Soviets called for urgent consultations...
...and the USSR is the War of Attrition between Egypt and Israel in 1970...
...And then there's something they probably didn't tell the Syrians, something they thought to themselves: "The Iranians have just concluded a very successful offensive in which they threw Iraqi forces out of Iran...
...And that's a hint of the reservations they have...
...If, then and there, they drew the line, and they said to Nasser, "We'll do so much for you, but no more," then, I'm convinced that here, too, they said, "We'll come...
...If Jordan had taken the crucial step a few months ago, it might have forced a polarization, in which a majority of the West Bankers would have sided with Jordan...
...conception of a Lebanon settlement, based on the withdrawal of all forces, and that again needled the Soviets...
...In the midst of the Lebanon war, as the Syrians are getting clobbered, unable to do anything about it, they go to the Soviets and they say, "Aren't you going to help us...
...So, as long as he thinks he has a chance of getting his preferred solution, he'll stay put...
...And the West Bankers have never been able to get together on their own, to decide to reach their own agreement with Israel...
...And we're now dealing with a PLO that is much more directly controlled by the Syrians...
...Shortly after that, a different dynamic was introduced by the crisis of the Syrian intervention in Jordan, which was blocked by Israeli-US...
...That will require cooperation between Israel and the U.S., and that will require an Israeli leadership that will understand what is really at stake, that can inspire confidence in the Israeli public or, at least, draw the Opposition into its confidence and say to them, "Look, this is our plan, and we'd like to give it a try for three or six months, and, if it doesn't work, we promise to do it your way...
...there is a widespread sense of lassitude in Israel...
...They and the Syrians speak tough, especially in the last week or two of the negotiations that led to the Lebanon-Israel agreement...
...This is during February, March and April of 1970...
...Oh yes, the Lebanese government is careful not to snip the last thread, to demand that the Syrians withdraw and to force the Syrians, thereby, to refuse formally, to put them on the spot...
...And Nasser answered him using the English words, "No use...
...But with the Soviet missiles, the Israelis took a conciliatory line...
...It is a very important agreement—provided, of course, that action is taken to implement and sustain it...
...The fact is that they had much deeper interests with Nasser in Egypt than they have with Assad in Syria...
...The tide there is changing...
...But informally, it's quite clear that this is what it wants them to do...
...If the American soldiers stay there for another few months, and nothing is happening, there is no movement in the political arena, and there are a few incidents along the way, there will be a public outcry here—"What are they doing there...
...The Soviets replied, "We agreed to help you, but we did not agree to become involved in war, in combat...
...Then, Israel had no option...
...They allow Assad to drum up the significance of their intervention, they make their own threatening noises, they don't try to soften the alarm expressed in Israel or in the U.S.—but they keep their own personnel with the missiles...
...The Israelis would have to coordinate things with the Americans as well, because if the Syrians were to decide to gamble that Israel would finally move, then the Israelis have to know what the Americans are prepared to do to help out, to help change Soviet and Syrian thinking...
...He minced no words, and, eventually, that's exactly what Israel did...
...3. The U.S...
...Assad, for his part, played Nasser's game...
Vol. 8 • July 1984 • No. 7
